An innovative software/think tank called New England Complex Systems Institute developed a model several years ago predicting violent protests due to high food prices. It has proven to be highly accurate over the years. Violent protests always have many and varied causes, but the theorists argue that high food prices seems to serve as the “spark” for violence. The chart buttressing their conclusions seems to be quite persuasive. The fact that the very high price for food in 2013 will likely go down in 2014 is a somewhat encouraging note.
In a rare breakthrough, the UN Security Council has finally passed a resolution demanding that the Syrian government allow humanitarian aid to be introduced into the country. The resolution was not vetoed by either Russia or China because is contained no reference to enforcement if the Syrian government refuses to allow the aid in. Rather, the UN Secretary-General has to report to the Security Council about the success of the aid mission, at which point the Council must decide what action to take if the aid is refused. Needless to say, the resolution is a very weak one, but the best that could be passed. It does open a small window of possible help if enough public pressure can be brought to bear on the Security Council.
Ukraine President Yanukovich has left Kyiv, and the government is effectively leaderless right now. The assumption is that the agreement to call for new elections and to rewrite the constitution back to its 2009 form are still in force, but there is now way to verify that conclusion. In an extraordinary turn of events, protesters has essentially taken over Yanukovich’s private residence about 12 miles outside of Kyiv and are protecting it as a way of illustrating the corruption of his regime. The opulence in which Yanukovich lived was jaw-dropping, as suggested by some of the photographs from the site.
A truce has been brokered between the Ukraine government and the protesters, but it is soon to tell whether it will hold. The truce calls for new elections and a sharp curtailment of Presidential powers. The truce came about after the situation had deteriorated into an outright civil war. The protests are no longer about whether Ukraine will orient itself toward Russia or the EU; it is now a struggle over the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government itself.
Meanwhile, the situation in Venezuela has also deteriorated into a civil war. In this case, however, the government of President Maduro seems intent on organizing private militias to carry out attacks against the protesters. Maduro has revoked the credentials of the foreign press, so we can only get information through unvetted conduits such as social media. Venezuela, like Ukraine, is rapidly running out of foreign exchange reserves, so both countries will need outside assistance if they are to continue to import necessary items. In both cases, however, the major sources of outside capital are all deeply suspicious of the corruption in both countries, making the process of getting aid very difficult.
There is always news that makes me scratch my head in bewilderment. Today’s prize goes to the Israeli arms dealers who were shipping fighter plane parts to Iran. The scam was reported by the Greek press which is not well known for its hard-hitting investigative reporting. And it boggles the mind that the Israeli intelligence service, the Mossad, was not aware of such significant transactions. I guess everyone has to make a buck.
The National Security Agency obviously can’t take a joke. It sued the manufacturer of tee-shirts and other paraphernalia that used the NSA logo in this way:
The Office of Homeland Security also sued because of this logo:
Someone should remind the Agencies what they are trying to protect, namely the freedom of speech.
The situation in Ukraine has exploded today, with nine people dying in protests. There is a live video feed from Kyiv (below–remember that the time difference is none hours) and it appears as if the protesters have been completely energized. Talks over a new constitution have broken down, and President Yanukovich has signed an aid agreement with Russia. The agreement forestalls a sovereign default by Ukraine, but it also burns Ukraine’s bridges to the European Union.
Four people were killed in protests in Bangkok, Thailand as government opponents have seized government buildings in an attempt to prevent the government from conducting its business. Security forces tired to reclaim some of these buildings which led to the violent clashes. The standoff in Thailand seems no closer to resolution, and the Thai economy continues to deteriorate as a result.
China has rejected the UN report accusing North Korea of crimes against humanity. China called the report “unreasonable criticism” and rejected claims that it was complicit in the crimes by sending defectors back to North Korea rather than granting them asylum. The Chinese position makes it extremely unlikely that any effective action can be taken against the Korean regime.
Ordinarily I do not blog about aircraft hijackings, but an Ethiopian jet was hijacked by its co-pilot and diverted to Switzerland. The co-pilot waited for the pilot to use the lavatory and then locked him out of the cockpit. The Italians and the French scrambled their air force as the plane went over their territory and accompanied the jet to Switzerland. But the Swiss did not send fighter planes when the jet entered Swiss territory. The explanation? “… the Swiss airforce is only available during office hours. These are reported to be from 8am until noon, then 1:30 to 5pm.” On the one hand, it is great to see one of the richest countries in the world taking such a relaxed attitude toward terrorism. On the other hand, why does the Swiss air force need such a long lunch period?
Venezuela has expelled three US diplomats, accusing them of fomenting violence against the government. The protests against the Maduro government do not seem strong enough to topple it, but the unrest is rooted in the inflation and food shortages that have been created by poor government policies. It is not at all likely that the US diplomats were involved in the protests, but accusing the US of complicity in anti-government activities is a common tactic of previous Venezuelan governments.
Members of the extremist group, Boko Haram (the name means “Western Education is Evil”), have massacred citizens in the northern part of Nigeria. The group has been active for many years and have been leading an effort to create an Islamic state in Nigeria: the country is divided into a primarily Christian south and a primarily Muslim north. The conflict is mostly about how the oil wealth of the country is divided, but the violence over the years has been horrific.
The European Union has threatened Switzerland with the loss of significant financial assistance because of its vote to impose quotas on immigrants. Switzerland does considerable business with the EU although it is not a member of the Union. But the Swiss position on immigration contravenes the free movement of labor which is a keystone of the Union. The anti-immigrant sentiment within many European states is becoming increasingly inconsistent with the economic policies of the major EU countries.
Uganda has passed legislation to criminalize homosexuality, and President Museveni has indicated that he will sign the bill into law. US President Obama has indicated to Museveni that the law threatens US-Ugandan relations. The law is similar that the one passed by Russia last year. The divergence between many states in the West and other states in the world on the issue of homosexuality is an indication of how difficult it is to formulate rules for a single global polity.
Protests continue in Venezuela, as supporters and opponents of Venezuela’s President, Nicolas Maduro, faced off in the capital city of Caracas. Maduro took over after the death of Hugo Chavez, but has failed to attain Chavez’s popularity. The economic situation in Venezuela has deteriorated with high inflation and currency devaluation, and unemployment in the country is quite high. Unless the situation stabilizes soon, the likelihood of a government breakdown is highly likely.
The southern coast of England has been wracked by incessant storms, and many suspect that climate change is a bog factor explaining the persistence of the storms. High British officials are now calling climate change a matter of national security, bringing it squarely into the realm of foreign policy. US Secretary of State Kerry is slated to give a major speech on climate change while he is visiting Indonesia. And it appears that the current bad weather on the US east coast may also be related to a change in the Jet Stream which may persist for many years. Quite depressing.
A United Nations panel is set to release a report that accuses North Korea of Crimes Against Humanity. The report is sure to generate controversy, but it is unclear how far legal action can be pursued. The Chinese will certainly refuse to allow the Security Council to refer the matter to the International Criminal Court. The North Korean regime will not respond well to this official criticism.
The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences released a report that ranked Beijing second to last in an environmental ranking of 40 global cities. The report stated that Beijing “is near a level that is no longer livable for human beings.” Internet censors in China almost immediately blocked all references to the report, denying Chinese citizens the ability to assess the environmental health of their capital city.
The Syrian peace talks in Geneva have reached an impasse, and have nearly broken down in mutual recriminations between Russia and the United States. The division is so deep that no progress was made even on minimal humanitarian aid to the beleaguered Syrian citizens. No side can be proud of the complete breakdown of the talks.
Hindu nationalists in India have forced a publisher to destroy all copies of a book highly critical of Hinduism. The decision comes as national elections near and polls indicate that the Hindu nationalist party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is leading in the polls. The decision is also a blow to the liberal tradition of freedom of expression. The rise of ethnic nationalism is likely to amplify the cleavages that already exist in Indian politics.
Kazakhstan has announced a 20% devaluation of its currency (the Tenge), effectively reducing savings in the country by that amount in an unanticipated move. Needless to say, the move caused a great deal of unrest and many stores closed in order to reprice all their merchandise. But in the capital city, Almaty, the military was mobilized to handle any protests. Here is a video tape from the city demonstrating in vivid detail the political economy of a crisis. The crisis in not likely to spread to other countries, but it will certainly raise more fears about the state of the global economy. In Venezuela, deteriorating economic conditions have led to a long string of protests, and in the most recent protest, three protesters were killed bu government forces.
Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has resigned, shifting the government to a center-left orientation as it seems likely that Matteo Renzi will replace him as Prime Minister. This government will be the third in the last year for Italy as the turmoil associated with a deteriorating economic situation continues to worsen. Renzi will definitely be less compliant with the European Union policies pushing Italy toward austerity, and a confrontation with the EU is almost inevitable.
The European Union has announced plans to send a humanitarian military mission to the Central African Republic to help stem the violence that has led to the deaths of thousands. There are currently French forces there (and US forces nearby but not in the CAR) but the French want to replace by a genuinely multilateral force. The plan is to set up a small protected enclave in the capital city of Bangui, but there is as of now no firm timetable for the intervention. We will see how rapidly the EU can organize itself in the face of this tragedy.
Some news is only reported by certain media outlets. The Russian Times has published an article pointing out that The World Press Freedom Index has ranked the US in 46th place out of 180 countries. The Index is maintained by Reporters Without Borders and the main explanation for the poor ranking of the US is based on the Manning, Snowden and NSA intelligence leaks. Few US media outlets have reported this news (which obviously makes them look bad), but Americans who take pride in the 1st Amendment to the Constitution should take note.
Progress is being made in building sources of renewable energy. China is scheduled to install 12,000 megawatts of photovoltaic power in 2014, the largest increase in history. The US and Japan follow in second and third place. These strides give hope to possible reductions in the use of carbon as an energy source, but there is still a long way to go. The US, for example, still uses coal for about 40% of its electric generating capacity. Mount Holyoke College and the University of Massachusetts get much of their electricity from the Mt. Tom Electrical Plant in Holyoke, MA. The plant is located along the Connecticut River.
Much of the coal for this plant comes from West Virginia. To get an idea of how this coal is mined and delivered so that we can turn on the lights in South Hadley and Amherst, check out this slideshow of Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining. It will make you think twice the next time you leave the lights on.
It is impossible to understand the economic policies being pursued in different states in Europe without an appreciation of the German attitude toward inflation. Germany under Angela Merkel (and every other post World War II Chancellor) has been a forceful advocate for fiscal discipline because of the horrific experience of hyperinflation in Germany in 1923. It is difficult to imagine Germany sponsoring any policies that might allow high rates of inflation to occur.
World Politics News 