Thailand’s election was completed today, but it appears as if 6 million voters were not able to vote, or chose not to vote. The sizable number of people not voting makes it difficult for Yingluck Shinawatra to claim the legitimacy she had sought in calling for an early election: no one could possibly claim to have a mandate from such a distorted poll. The outcome leaves the Tahi government in a state of limbo, a result that is perhaps manageable, but one that will likely frighten foreign investors. Given the fear that exists in other emerging markets in the world, the uncertainty could have financial consequences for the country.
An election is scheduled for 5 April in Afghanistan. The election will replace President Karzai who constitutionally cannot run for a third term. Outsiders will be watching the election carefully. First, to see if the election can be carried out in a peaceful manner given the opposition of the Taliban to the current structure of power. Second, to see whether a candidate who might prove to be more accommodating to retaining US military advisers and aid will be likely to win. President Karzai has made it virtually impossible for the US to maintain any presence in Afghanistan after the pullout of combat troops later on in this year. But a complete pullout of all American support would probably prove to be highly destabilizing to the country.
There was quite the diplomatic dust-up between the US and Israel that had a touch of the surreal on Sunday. US Secretary of State Kerry referred to the growing movement to isolate Israel because of its policies toward the Palestinians as a possible threat if the current peace negotiations fail. The statement was meant as a descriptive one, and a prediction based upon Kerry’s sense of the growing frustration globally over the slow pace of the talks. The Israelis, however, interpreted the statement as a veiled threat by Kerry and responded quite harshly to his comments. I suspect that the Israeli sensitivity to the issue is based upon a genuine fear that the move to isolate Israel is taken seriously by many who have previously supported Israeli policies.
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