World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Christiane Amanpour of CNN interviewed the former Five College Professor of International Relations and current President of UNICEF, Anthony Lake, on the desperate situation of Syria’s children.   One cannot emphasize strongly enough how urgent this matter is.

Western powers are increasing the pressure on Russia as the date for the referendum in Crimea nears.  The referendum only asks two questions, and the second is egregiously misleading.

According to a format of the ballot paper, published on the parliament’s website, the first question will ask: “Are you in favour of the reunification of Crimea with Russia as a part of the Russian Federation?”

The second asks: “Are you in favour of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?”

The 1992 Constitution was annulled by the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, signed by Russia, the US, and Great Britain.  Note the phrasing “existing borders of Ukraine.”  The open-endedness of the 1992 Constitution, a contingency created because of the incredible ambiguities of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, is not an option.  Russia agreed in 1994 that it was no longer an option.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,

Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon State,

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,

Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.

Confirm the following:

 The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.

This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature.

Signed in four copies having equal validity in the English, Russian and Ukrainian languages.

NBC News has posted a video on the status of Syria’s children in the now 4-year old war.  It is a deeply sad and moving video that belies all the nice words of the international community about humanitarian intervention.  I am not sure what kind of politics permits or justifies this atrocity.

Senator Feinstein of California has accused the CIA of hacking into the Senate Intelligence Committee’s computers.  If true, the accusations suggest an intelligence community that is essentially out of control.  Feinstein believes that the CIA was looking for documents that prove that the agency committed acts of torture while waging the global war on terror.   The idea that one branch of the government would commit illegal acts against another branch of government is incredible, and symptomatic of a government that is definitely not working properly.

The political situation in Turkey has erupted in violence again, as a young protester has died from injuries suffered in an earlier demonstration.   Corruption charges have swirled around Prime Minister Erdogan, but there is also a deeper fear that Erdogan has moved the country in an authoritarian direction.  The economic situation has worsened as the government seems incapable of addressing these larger concerns.

Foreign Policy has a great article on the protests that are occurring all over the world.  It draws on the common themes among these protests.  All protests, however, are profoundly local–what is astonishing is how many societies are facing the same problems.  The problem is clearly one of governance, and how leaders are failing to discharge their duties to their citizens.

Afghanistan’s elections are scheduled for April, and the results of that election will be critically important.  The current President, Karzai, has refused to reach an agreement with the US about whether US non-combat military forces can remain in the country after NATO pulls its forces out in December.  Both Karzai and the US have agreed to let the next president make that decision.  But the Taliban has threatened to use “all force” to disrupt the elections which may make the final resolution of the dispute impossible.

Former guerrilla leader, Salvador Sanchez Ceren, has won the presidential election in El Salvador.   Sanchez Ceren was one of the leaders of the rebel group that fought several US-backed governments in El Salvador in the 1980-92 civil war.  It was a very close election, and we should all hope that the political situation in El Salvador does not deteriorate: the rhetoric surrounding this election has been very intense.

Peter Baker of the New York Times has written a very good piece on the previous cases of where parts of states have seceded.  The comparisons are useful when one is trying to figure out the legality of the proposed referendum on Crimea merging with Russia.  If anything, his analysis proves how inconsistent the world has been on this particular question over the years.

The Arab League has joined the Palestinian Authority in rejecting Israel’s demand that it be recognized as a Jewish state.  The issue has been a long-standing disagreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians.  Israel demands the recognition as evidence of Palestinian sincerity in accepting the existence of the state of Israel.  The Palestinians refuse to make the recognition, arguing that they recognized Israel as a state in the Oslo Agreement.   The Palestinians believe that the demand forces them to give up all claims to the lands lost by the Palestinians in the creation of Israel and the Palestinian demand that they be allowed to return to their homes.

The economic stresses that led to the Great Recession of 2008 have not been addressed yet.  Indeed, global debt has increased from about $70 trillion in 2007 to about $100 trillion in 2013.  The dramatic increase in debt is the result of Central Banks all over the world buying bonds in order to lower interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth.   So far, the strategy has not worked, and, eventually, that debt will have to be paid back.  How it will be repaid is not at all clear, but the world is more vulnerable to a credit crisis today than it was in 2008 when the global economy almost collapsed.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a statement concerning territorial disputes in Asia that was considered quite provocative by many of its neighbors.  Referring to disputes with Japan and the Philippines, Mr. Wang said that “there is no room for compromise in territorial and historical issues.”

As it becomes more likely that Russia will take action to annex Crimea, the rhetoric between Russia and the West has become more heated.  For the third time, members of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were denied entry into Crimea to assess the validity of the claims that Russians were being attacked by Ukrainians in Crimea.  Russia continues to deny that the armed soldiers taking control of Crimea are Russian soldiers.

About 15% of the Crimean population is Tatar.  This ethnic group was exiled from the Crimea by Stalin during World War II because Stalin mistrusted their loyalty to the Soviet Union.  For this reason, one would suspect that the Tatars would fiercely resist Russian control over the Crimea.  However, the Russians are courting the Tatars with very attractive offers of financial support and political promises.  It will be interesting to see where the Tatars end up.  For many years, the Crimean Tatars have been asking for independence, as evidenced by their membership in the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization.

The Russian invasion of Crimea has led to the possibility that Russia will try to incorporate Crimea into Russian, not Crimean, territory.  The move is a blatant violation of international norms and law, but border changes are not that infrequent in world politics.   Check out this video of European border changes over the last 1000 years.

The Russians, of course, believe that their actions are fully consistent with international law.  Their position is that an illegal coup occurred in Ukraine, and that therefore the normal constitutional processes of Ukraine cannot be followed.  Therefore, the Crimea is not bound by the laws of Ukraine and can legally decide to join Russia.  The Western powers disagree:  the Ukrainian Parliament (the Rada) has not been dissolved and therefore the continuity of legal control has not been breached.

Mikheil Saakashvili was president of Georgia from 2004 to 2013 and he has written a short piece for the Washington Post about the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008.  His perspective is highly critical of the Western powers and their limited defense of Georgian sovereignty in that episode.  While his position is very clear about what he believes should be done in Ukraine, one should read the essay with a critical eye as to whether the circumstances are so similar.

There apparently is a move in the Obama Administration to speed up the process of exporting natural gas in an attempt to blunt Russia’s control over European energy.  This option is possible because of fracking, a policy that is problematic.  Exporting natural gas would also raise prices in the US.  Such are the costs of implementing an economic foreign policy.

The Crimean Parliament has voted to hold a referendum on whether Crimea should join Russia.  The Parliament does not have the authority to order such a referendum–only the Ukrainian Parliament can make decisions about Ukrainian territory.  But it is likely that a Crimea-only referendum would favor merging with Russia.  Such a vote would force Ukraine’s hand–it is tantamount to a vote to secede, and, like the Union in the American Civil War, Ukraine would likely move to repress the secession with armed force.  The move raises the stakes considerably.

The rise of the right-wing in world politics is one of the more distressing patterns today.  The parties in Europe have been notable for their anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiment (sentiments which exist in many places) which makes them somewhat different from right-wing parties in other areas of the world that tend to emphasize economic issues.  Germany has seen a rise in anti-Muslim sentiment which is likely to have a big impact on the upcoming European Parliament elections.

Do you have difficulty wrapping your head about the problem of income inequality?  There’s nothing wrong with your head:

The EU is offering economic support of about 15 billion euro to Ukraine.  The money would be disbursed over several years, but is contingent on Ukraine following conditions laid down by the IMF.  Those conditions are generally quite austere and will demand significant changes to the Ukrainian economy that many citizens will find hard to accept–much as is the case in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy.   It is, however, a very generous counter proposal to that offered by Russia, so it gives the Ukrainian government a viable alternative to Russian support.

Boko Haram continues to wage violent attacks in northern Nigeria.  The government seems to be incapable of responding effectively to these attacks, and the constant pressure of the attacks is steadily eroding the stability of the government.  Nigeria is a critically important state and the prospect of a slow deterioration in the politics of the country poses a serious challenge to the overall stability of West Africa.

India announced that it will begin to hold its national elections on 7 April.  The contest this year is likely to be a particularly sharp political debate, pitting the likely Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate, Narendra Modi, against the Congress Party.  The BJP is a Hindu nationalist party, and Modi has the legacy of a horrible anti-Muslim incident in his home state of Gujarat in 2002.  This election bears close watching as it will be the largest democratic election in human history.