World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

The rules governing recognition of a secessionist movement are somewhat murky.  The right of self-determination is well-recognized, but is constrained by whether other states in the system believe that self-determination is really the motive for a new state.  That constraint is necessary because there are other possible interpretations of an independence movement, such as external support for independence that overrides what the people in the new state actually want; in short, possible imperial actions. Such was the case in the independence of Kosovo in 2008.  In the West, Kosovar independence was necessary because of the fear of Serbian hostility to the people of Kosovo which might have resulted in crimes against humanity (occasioned by the violence that characterized the fight against Bosnia by the Serbs in the 1990s).  Many states now recognize Kosovar independence, but Kosovo is not a member of the United Nations.  The referendum in Crimea is not, however, a vote for independence–it is a vote on whether Crimea should rejoin Russia.  So there will not be a “means test” on the vote.  States will not withdraw their recognition of Russia because of the referendum and they will not recognize Crimea as an independent state.

The early results from the Crimean election indicate strong support for secession.  According to the BBC, 95.5% of the voters voted to join Russia.  Now the matter goes to the Russian Duma to decide whether to accept Crimea into the Russian Federation.  While the outcome of the election is clear, what is not clear is what percentage of the Crimean population voted.  The Tatars said they would not participate in the election, and we don’t know how many non-Russian Ukrainians may have boycotted the election as well.  Those numbers will suggest how legitimate the election actually was.

Austerity policies generally affect taxes and government spending.   In Greece, however, austerity policies imposed by the IMF, the EU, and the European Central Bank have forced the government to consider selling historic national sites.  One can imagine how Americans would react to a demand from an international organization to sell the Statue of Liberty, or how the French would react to a demand to sell the Eiffel Tower.  The loss of heritage sites may be the political last straw for many Greeks.