Most analysts believe that the referendum in Crimea tomorrow will favor union with Russia. Russia has already occupied Crimea, so the vote is in many respects pro forma. The question now is to determine how much Russia will gain from the move. Reports of scattered fighting in other parts of Ukraine suggest that Russia may have additional objectives, but much depends on how easily Crimea can be assimilated into Russia and how the West responds to the takeover in the long run. Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution declaring the referendum invalid. Interestingly, China abstained on the resolution.
One of the interesting dimensions of the large number of protests in the world is that the governments threatened by the protests almost invariably blame “Western powers” for the turmoil. The charge is often made by autocratic governments that believe that their legitimacy is not accepted by the liberal powers. This growing divide between the established and the emerging powers is a destabilizing element in the emerging world order.
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