There are now more than 50 million displaced persons (refugees) in the world, the highest number of such persons in the world since World War II. The world has moved away from the term refugees to the phrase “displaced persons” to account for those people who remain in their home country even though they have left their homes. Most of these displaced people are fleeing conflict areas, and it is often very difficult to get any assistance to them because of the issue of sovereignty.
The situation in Iraq suddenly became significantly weirder. Russian President Putin has offered Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki “total support” in fighting ISIS. Putin definitely has an interest in combating ISIS since Putin has been confronting a radical Islamist group in Chechnya for many years. But imagine the possibilities. The US could be fighting along side Russians against rebels who also wish to overthrow President Assad in Syria, a Russian ally. Ultimately, the US and Russian forces could be fighting along side Iranian forces who also wish to support al-Maliki. War makes for very strange bedfellows.
The new Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has ordered all government officials to use Hindi instead of English in all social media platforms. The order is consistent with Modi’s Hindu nationalism, but there are many in India who do not use Hindi as their primary language. English, although the language of colonialism, has served as a language that does not favor any of the indigenous groups. It is unclear whether the order will stick as it has been issued in the past and failed.
The debate in the US is the extent to which the US military should be involved in protecting the government of Iraq against ISIS. The debate should be incredibly nuanced, but, at least in public, the debate is insipid. The Christian Science Monitor has a compendium of comments made by various public officials which betrays the lack of depth in the debate. Note carefully, that none of the comments specifically identifies a concrete US national interest. The only real questions President Obama should ask are: how can, and under what conditions, will defending the Iraqi government enhance the power of the US? Are the costs of that defense commensurate with the benefits?
In response to the criminalization of homosexuality, the US cut aid to Uganda, imposed visa restrictions and canceled a regional military exercise. The US took the action because it believes that the laws violate the human rights of Ugandans. The penalties, however, represent the expression of American interpretations of human rights, to which the Ugandan government does not subscribe. The dispute is a classic example of how the process of universalizing human rights is a difficult and problematic process.
Sri Lanka endured a long civil war that ended in 2009 with serious charges against the government of war crimes. The UN has asked Sri Lanka to allowed to investigate those charges, but the Sri Lankan Parliament has refused to permit an investigation. The vote cannot prevent a UN investigation, but it will unquestionably hamper the ability of the UN to conduct a thorough investigation.
I am grateful to one of the readers of this blog who reminded me that I have ignored the Pakistani military offensive against Taliban strongholds in North Waziristan. The action is indeed highly significant, as it represents serious risks to the government of Pakistan, but also is reflective of a broad consensus among the major political parties, including the Movement for Justice, that effective action had to be taken against the threat posed by the TTP. After the attack on the Karachi Airport, the government was obliged to take strong action.
In 2001-02 Argentina defaulted on $200 billion of its sovereign debt. As is usually the case in such circumstances, the owners of sovereign bonds in default typically take only a percentage of what the bonds were worth rather than lose the whole amount. In this case, however, some hedge funds (Argentina refers to them as “vulture” funds) refused to take the percentage (what is often referred to as a “haircut”). The hedge funds have pursued the matter all the way to the US Supreme Court, demanding that they be paid in full, and in this case have won the case. Argentina is scheduled to make payments to the bondholders within a few weeks, and it is clear that it does not have the money to pay the hedge funds in full. Thus, a crisis is looming and Argentina may be facing another sovereign debt crisis.
Iraq has formally requested air strikes from the US against ISIS. The request comes as it becomes clear that ISIS is deliberately trying to cripple Iraq economically by attacking oil facilities in the country. There are reports that ISIS has seized the country’s largest oil refinery. The impact on the global oil industry will be slow to unfold, but the effects on the Iraqi economy will be immediately obvious as electricity and transportation are completely dependent on supplies from that refinery. At this point, it seems doubtful that the US will in fact launch air strikes, but the future possibility of such attacks cannot be ruled out.
Militants from Somalia, allegedly members of Al-Shabab, killed as many as 20 people in Kenya and abducted young girls. Although Al-Shabab claimed responsibility for the attacks, Kenyan President Kenyatta instead blamed domestic political leaders for the atrocities. Al-Shabab claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack on a shopping mall in Kenya earlier in the year, asserting that the attacks were in response to Kenyan military attacks in Somalia.
The success of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Iraq has led Western countries to explore the possibility of working with Iran to counter the threat to the stability of Iraq. Great Britain has announced that it would re-open its embassy to Iran, and there are reports that the US is opening discussions about working with Shia Iran to respond to the Sunni movement to establish political control in both Syria and Iraq (Sunni are the majority population in Shia-led Syria, but a minority in Shia-led Iraq). The reports also indicate that there have been positive moves in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. A possible rapprochement between Iran and the West would completely change the politics of the Middle East.
Almost a third of humanity suffers from some form of food deficiency. The world confronted this problem in the middle of the 20th century by increasing food production. In the 1960s, agricultural production was dramatically increased by what was then known as the Green Revolution. The Green Revolution essentially increased crop yields by improving the techniques food production and introducing new strains of seeds. The problem of food security persists, and it is unlikely that improvements in the efficiency of food production can address the issue a second time. The world is therefore trying new techniques that depend largely on genetic manipulation.
It has always been difficult to determine how much money is lost to taxation because it is hidden in tax havens that specialize in disguising the identity of the owners of the money. The world economic system has created this tax loophole for no good economic reason: hidden money, almost by definition, cannot be used productively. The loopholes exist for only one reason: to help individuals avoid paying taxes. Finally, economists have begun to tackle the size of the problem, and the figures are substantial. According to one study, about $7.6 trillion is stashed away in loopholes that are not remotely available to the vast bulk of taxpayers. As such, the tax havens have been deliberately constructed to help a very small number of people, and these tax havens are a deliberate feature of the world order.
The Pew Foundation consistently produces very insightful polling data on a whole range of issues. In its most recent report, it examines the political polarization in America. Not surprisingly, the evidence suggests that the country is significantly more polarized than it was 2o years ago. From the report:
A decade ago, the public was less ideologically consistent than it is today. In 2004, only about one-in-ten Americans were uniformly liberal or conservative across most values. Today, the share who are ideologically consistent has doubled: 21% express either consistently liberal or conservative opinions across a range of issues – the size and scope of government, the environment, foreign policy and many others.
The new survey finds that as ideological consistency has become more common, it has become increasingly aligned with partisanship. Looking at 10 political values questions tracked since 1994, more Democrats now give uniformly liberal responses, and more Republicans give uniformly conservative responses than at any point in the last 20 years
No wonder the Congress cannot get anything done.
The news is too grim. We all should relax. Listen to this video.
The stunning advances by ISIS into Iraq came as a surprise to some and as a foregone conclusion to others. ISIS only came into existence three years ago, and it amassed a great deal of power largely because of its control of oilfields in western Syria. Just before ISIS took control of the city of Mosul, Iraqi authorities actually had managed to interrogate some high officials in ISIS that exposed how much wealth the group had been able to appropriate through its activities. The information should give the governments opposed to ISIS a greater ability to limit the group’s activities.
One of the most interesting dynamics in the current world order is the relationship of China and India. We tend to overlook this relationship as both are rising powers, with similar objectives in recasting the world order in ways that are more sympathetic to the interests of emerging powers. To a certain extend, this perspective has validity. But India and China have been familiar powers for far longer than the contemporary world order has been around, and there are some dramatic conflicts of interests between the two. We should keep our eyes on how both powers interact with each other–over the long term, this relationship is perhaps the most important in the world.
Ukrainian separatists shot down a Ukrainian transport plane, killing 49 people. The rebels apparently used anti-aircraft weaponry, marking an escalation in their capabilities. In addition, there are reports that Russia is sending in tanks and other heavy weapons to aid the separatists. If true, Ukrainian forces will be at a severe disadvantage is restoring order to all parts of their country. Western powers will likely examine the evidence, and, if the reports are accurate, will likely increase the sanctions on Russia. There is still no possibility of a Western military response to Russian moves.
Professor Stephen Walt of Harvard University is one of the US’s pre-eminent realists. His critique of American policy in Iraq is pointed and damning. Walt firmly believes that the US has made serious mistakes by intervening in the internal affairs of other states when national interests are not at stake. We should keep Walt’s analysis in mind as President Obama orders US naval vessels into the Persian Gulf, perhaps preparing for air strikes to help out the Iraqi government to defeat the ISIS forces.
The underlying context of the economic crisis the world has been going through since 2008 is the massive increase in the debt taken on by governments. The debt is often viewed as evidence of profligate spending and the growth of a sense of entitlement among citizens that do not contribute to overall economic growth. That analysis is the bedrock of the austerity programs that have led to so much misery in the world. Economists in France have done a thorough analysis of the French public debt, and have come to the conclusion that that analysis is not accurate. Their conclusion is that the vast growth of debt in France was not due to an increase in public spending (in fact, public spending in France went down substantially), but rather the reduction in taxes. If true, then austerity programs are exactly the wrong medicine to apply. In Greece, laid-off state workers have protested their dismissals, leading to dramatic confrontations with the police.
On the other dramatic front in the world, Iraq, we are witnessing one of the last gasps of European colonialism in the Middle East. Iraq is a state with three nations–Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and Kurds–with only one state–the central government in Baghdad. That structure was established by the British along the terms of the Sykes-Picot Treaty concluded in 1916. It was a secret agreement between France, Britain, and Russia dealing with the disposition of the territory controlled by the Ottoman Empire after its expected dissolution at the end of World War I. The treaty gave the territory of what is now Iraq to Great Britain (and what is now Syria and Lebanon to France–see the map below).
When Iraq became independent in 1932, there was no move to reconceptualize the territory along the lines of the allegiances of the people who lived in the territory. A monarchy had been established in 1921 that perpetuated the idea of Iraq, but the monarchy was overthrown in 1958 and a republic was created. Ultimately, Saddam Hussein seized power in 1979 until his overthrow by American forces in 2003. Throughout this entire history, the Sunni Muslims had been in control of the central government because the British had placed them in power from the very beginning, and the Sunnis did not allow the Shia or the Kurds any meaningful participation in their governance.
Thus, when the US set up elections in 2006, the majority population–the Shia–took control of the central government, and, under Prime Minister of Nouri al-Maliki, there has been a systematic exclusion of the Sunni Muslims. The Sunnis resent the loss of control; the Shia view their behavior as payback. The Kurds thought that greater autonomy was all they could ask for, but, given the oil reserves in Kurdish territory, an independent Kurdish state was always possible.
But now everything is up for grabs. The Sunni Muslims look poised to take control of territories populated by Sunnis. ISIS has made the claim to take control of Baghdad, and perhaps they might, but the central government of Iraq has lost all legitimacy (that’s what happens when the security forces abandon their posts without a fight). So there is no longer any “Iraq”. We will most likely see the country split into three separate states, two of them Islamic Republics who will actually hate each other. The Kurds will establish their own state which will roil the Kurds in Syria, Iran, and especially Turkey.
Such a division should have occurred with the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire. The mistake of European colonialism was to believe that nation-states could be created without regard for the historical and cultural dynamics of the people who lived within the territory. We are now witnessing the turmoil of justice long delayed.
Temperatures in New Delhi, India, hit 118 degrees Fahrenheit yesterday as the country suffers through an oppressive heat wave. Fortunately, the monsoon season is about a week away, which should bring relief from the heat, but Indian forecasters are predicting a relatively weak monsoon season. The country is ill-prepared for such heat, as electricity for air-conditioning is not especially reliable in parts of the country. The heat wave is likely to increase demand for electricity leading to increased use of coal, aggravating greenhouse gas emissions in the country.
The US is in a very difficult situation in Iraq. The Islamic Army of Syria and Iraq (ISIS) poses a real challenge to the US and to liberal forces in the Middle East. But the government of Iraq is also no close friend of the US as it has close ties to Iran. The US has to decide how much support it wishes to give the Iraqi government–ISIS is a more serious threat to US interests in the region. The Obama Administration has the difficult job of trying to restabilize Iraq after the US invasion upset the balance of power in the country in 2003.
The disintegration of Iraq continues. The success of ISIS in taking over several cities in Iraq has emboldened the Kurds to think about their independence from Iraq. The Kurds have dreamed of their own homeland, Kurdistan for over a century, but their nation is divided among Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. In Iraq, the Kurds have carved out a high degree of autonomy from the central government, and they also have access to their own oil fields which are some of the richest in the Middle East. At this point there does not seem to be a high degree of animosity between the Kurds and ISIS, but that situation may change rather quickly if ISIS continues to exert greater control.
Members of the Sunni Islamist group, the Islamic Army of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have now taken control of 4 Iraqi cities. In a further blow to the Iraqi government, it appears as if the Iraqi military surrendered the cities without much of a fight. Reports indicate that ISIS now has control of huge caches of military equipment, including state-of-the-art US Blackhawk and Apache helicopters (although it is not clear that ISIS knows how to fly them). Additionally, ISIS forces took control of large amounts of money from government offices and banks. ISIS now ranks as a formidable military and political force in the region. It is a perverse turn of events, all precipitated by the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 for the explicit purpose of denying militants access to Iraqi resources.
In response to the armed attack on the Karachi airport, the US used drones to kill presumed militants in the Iraqi area of North Waziristan. Apparently, the Pakistani military is planning an offensive in the region which is a stronghold for the Pakistani Taliban. It is not clear how the drone stikes are an effective response since the attack on the Karachi airport was hailed by the Pakistan militants as a response to an earlier drone strike that killed its leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, last November.
One of the most indefensible assumptions of world politics is the distinction between domestic and foreign politics. That distinction is virtually meaningless in economic terms, as it is now impossible to identify the national identity of most large multinational corporations (or where they store their money). But the distinction is also becoming blurred in the area of security as local police forces take on a lot of the equipment usually associated with national armies. The New York Times has a very troubling story on how police forces across the US are arming themselves in ways that give local forces overwhelming firepower, leading to a strong separation of security capabilities with the security threats mostly associated with local populations.
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