The announcement of a new Islamic State (IS) to replace the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was made over the radio. The transcript of the announcement has been made available through the Middle East Media Research Institute, and it is a remarkable document. It establishes a new Caliphate and names Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi as the Caliph. The announcement explicitly repudiates most of the logic currently governing the world order:
“So rush O Muslims and gather around your caliph, so that you may return as you once were for ages, kings of the earth and knights of war. Come so that you may be honored and esteemed, living as masters with dignity… By Allah, if you disbelieve in democracy, secularism, nationalism, as well as all the other garbage and ideas from the west, and rush to your religion and creed, then by Allah, you will own the earth, and the east and west will submit to you. This is the promise of Allah to you…”
This is the first time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 that the guidelines for a genuine alternative to the Western world order has been articulated.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has ended the cease-fire against the Russian-speaking separatists in eastern Ukraine. The cease-fire has been in place for several weeks, but there has been no reciprocal action, and Poroshenko has vowed to restore the sovereignty of Ukraine. Both sides are clearly prepared for a spike in violence, and it remains to be seen how Russia and the West will react to the outbreak. But Poroshenko has signaled his desire to move Ukraine closer to the West.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made it clear that he intends to modify Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution in which Japan renounces war. That clause was inserted into the Japanese Constitution after World War II in order to reassure Japan’s neighbors that Japanese militarism would not resurface. There have been huge protests against Abe’s plans and most polls indicate that the Japanese people do not wish to change the constitution. The growth of Chinese power in the region, however, makes it difficult for Japan to defend its interests in a traditional balance of power manner. It seems unlikely, however, that Abe is interested in trying alternative methods of defending Japanese interests.
Indonesia has overtaken Brazil as the nation with the highest rate of deforestation in the world. Its previous rate had been significantly understated, and it appears as if tree-cutting on purportedly government-protected areas is largely responsible for the misstatement. The error also signals the difficulty in addressing the problem of deforestation–the lack of an effective governmental infrastructure and capacity to enforce the laws designed to protect the forests.
ISIS has declared itself to be “The Islamic State,” re-establishing a form of political governance last seen 100 years ago in the Ottoman Empire. The announcement signaled the establishment of a Caliphate, stretching from Iraq’s Diyala province to Syria’s Aleppo. The Caliphate is a genuine alternative to the more traditional nation-state, and relies much less heavily of territory that is bounded and delimited. The two states that previously controlled the territory, Syria and Iraq, will obviously contest the claim. The original Caliphate was the greatest extent of Muslim political control in the 8th century.
The European Commission of the European Union has designated Jean-Claude Juncker as its next President. Mr. Juncker is a former Prime Minister of Luxembourg and is in favor of a more integrated Union. He was strongly opposed by Prime Minister Cameron of Great Britain, and his designation will undoubtedly cause political problems in Great Britain. A British referendum on continued membership in the Union is scheduled and there is a real possibility that Britain will choose to leave the Union.
Today is the 100th anniversary of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. His death, at the hands of a young Serb nationalist, Gavrilo Princip, set into motion the chain of events that led to World War I. Here is a copy of the headline in the New York Herald about the assassination.
The war that ensued was the turning point in world history, eventually leading to the collapse of the European control of most of the planet. Europe itself changed dramatically. Here is a map of pre-war Europe:
This is the map in 1919:
The devastation caused by the first truly industrial war was impossible to grasp. The soldiers were mindlessly ordered by generals who had little idea of how the new technologies had transformed the conduct of war. The soldiers followed their orders and suffered casualties that were unprecedented. The new weapons included the Dreadnaught:
The tank:
The Machine Gun (note the dog pulling the cart):
Mustard Gas:
And the largest artillery ever built:
The killing was nothing less than slaughter.
And the landscape was decimated:
Even today, one can see evidence of the trenches of 100 years ago. These are from the Battle of the Somme:
The war changed everything. And the effect on the minds of people in the world were best captured in the poem, “The Second Coming,” by William Butler Yeats.
William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
THE SECOND COMING
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
The problem of growing income inequality is global, and it continues to become more serious as the divide between rich and poor deepens. Nick Hanauer, a venture capitalist with a strong record of productive investments, gave a short TED talk on the problem. He focuses on the political implications of this process.
There is little question that China is a great power, but the question remains as to how much of China’s resources will be allocated to military power. David Shambaugh, writing in the National Interest, argues that China is unlikely to become a military superpower. He thinks that the Chinese government is far more concerned about regional issues, rather than international matters. Moreover, the pressing domestic concerns of the Chinese people will constrain China’s international interests. I think he underestimates the degree to which Chinese power will evolve (much of what he says about China accurately describe pre-1945 US), but the essay is definitely worth a read.
The Obama Administration has decided to use armed drones in Iraq. They are supposed to be used to protect the 300-odd military personnel that the US is sending to Iraq, but the definition of “protection” is so vague that the drones could be used in a variety of circumstances. Thus, the US is once again militarily engaged in Iraq, protecting a government that does not appear to have broad support against an enemy that remains quite small (ISIS), even though it seems to wield a great deal of power right now.
Argentina is in a desperate financial situation. It owes a hedge fund $1.5 billion which a US court has ruled is a legitimate debt. But it has already reached agreement with other bondholders of the debt to pay only a fraction of the original debt. If Argentina obeys the US court and pays the full debt to the hedge fund, then it is likely that the other debt holders will demand full payment as well. Full payment of the entire debt will use up almost half of Argentina’s current foreign currency reserves, a reduction that would probably trigger panic for everyone to whom Argentina has a financial commitment. Argentina must decide by 20 July, and there are few decisions it can make that will not harm its economy, and perhaps rattle global debt markets.
Ukraine has signed the agreement with the European Union that was at the center of the turmoil in Ukraine earlier in the year. The agreement is a free trade pact that triggered off sharp opposition from Russia. The agreement is a victory for pro-Western forces in the country, but Russia signaled its displeasure almost immediately. The EU also signed similar agreements with Georgia and Moldova, also states that were once part of the former Soviet Union.
Sometimes the stupidity of politicians baffles even the most cynical observers. Such is the case in the decision made by the US House of Representatives to pass a bill renaming the street in DC on which the Chinese Embassy sits to “Liu Xiaobo Plaza.” Mr. Liu won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010 for his pursuit of human rights in China, and there is little question that he deserves recognition as he remains in prison for his efforts. But now ““[E]very piece of incoming mail to the embassy would bear the name of the imprisoned Nobel laureate,” said Rep. Frank Wolf, the Congressperson who proposed the change. There are probably many streets in DC that would proudly bear the name–there still is no “J” Street–and Congress has shown that there is no limit to petulance.
Some residents of Detroit, Michigan, have appealed to the United Nations, after the city cut off water to about 3,000 homes and businesses because of unpaid water bills. In 2008, the United Nations established a Special Rapporteur on the human right to safe drinking water and sanitation, acknowledging that access to clean and affordable water is a human right. Detroit is a city in bankruptcy, and its economic problems are well-known. Nonetheless, all governments have the obligation to protect the health and safety of their citizens.
The outbreak of the Ebola virus in West Africa has been labelled as “out of control” by Doctors Without Borders. There have been about 600 confirmed cases and 360 deaths from this outbreak. The virus usually surfaces in remote areas of East and Central Africa, and this time is the first time it has been confirmed in West Africa, affecting Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. The outbreak in areas near the heavily urbanized area of Guinea has contributed to its rapid spread. The World Health Organization is mobilizing its forces to contain the outbreak before it spreads further.
An explosion partially destroyed a mall in Abuja, Nigeria, killing at least 21 people. The bomb blast was timed as people began to congregate at the mall to watch the Nigeria vs. Argentina World Cup match. The explosion was blamed on Boko Haram, but there was no claim of responsibility as of yet. The group continues to evade the Nigerian government, and it is unclear whether the government has the capability to contain the threat posed by the extremists. The US had supplied intelligence aid after the kidnapping of nearly 200 girls by Boko Haram, but there has been no mention of how successful that aid has been.
Syria has launched airstrikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) marking a change in strategy by President Assad. The Syrian government has basically ignored ISIS until very recently. But Assad is playing a balance of power game, aligning himself as the enemy of the US enemy. The switch places the US in an uncomfortable position since it does not wish to be seen as cooperating with Syria (and by implication, Iran). It also places the US in the position of fighting the same enemy as a Russian ally, even though Russia has been an obstacle to bringing humanitarian assistance to the people of Syria. How the US will walk this tightrope remains to be seen. The US National Public Radio broadcast an interview with New Yorker reporter, Dexter Filkins, on ISIS which is incredibly informative.
A bipartisan report has been released to the US Congress, assessing the economic costs of global warming. The report was endorsed by three former US Treasury secretaries: George Schultz, a Republican in the Nixon Administration, Henry M. Paulson Jr., a Republican who served under President George W. Bush, and Robert E. Rubin, a Democrat in the Clinton administration. According to the report the costs will be very high and will affect different parts of the US in very different ways. The report is titled “Risky Business” and has a wealth of information.
Iraqi Kurdish President Massoud Barzani indicated in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that “the time is here for the Kurdistan people to determine their future and the decision of the people is what we are going to uphold.” It was the clearest indication so far that Iraqi Kurds will likely declare an independent state of Kurdistan in the wake of the dissolution of Iraq. An independent state of Kurdistan has been the strong desire of the Kurdish people ever since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. How Turkey reacts to this possibility will have a great effect on the outcome.
One of the most important legacies of Nelson Mandela was his heroic leadership after the abolition of apartheid in South Africa. One of his instruments of justice was a movement toward truth and reconciliation, a movement that many other countries have adopted after traumatic events. The Guardian did a retrospective on the truth, justice, and reconciliation movements since that time. The successes of the movements are tempered by some shortcomings. But the innovative approach shows great promise for deeply divided societies.
The turmoil in Iraq and Syria has much to do with the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire and the subsequent takeover of the land by the British and the French. Trying to understand the current turmoil without appreciating how European imperialism tried to override the historical and cultural roots of the region is impossible.
Capgemini and RBC Wealth Management are organizations that pay close attention to what are known as High Net-Worth Individuals–people with more than $1 million available for investments (essentially $1 million in cash). The two organizations often poll their clientele and the results of the most recent poll are quite interesting. They asked 4,500 HNWI individuals the following question: “To which of the following issues are you currently allocating wealth, time or expertise?” The results demonstrate a lack of interest in economic inequality and civil rights.
How important is credibility in world affairs? According to a leaked secret recording of the Polish Foreign Minister, it is extremely important. Poland is quite concerned about Russian activities in Ukraine, and profoundly disappointed in the US response to the provocations. According to the transcript, Foreign Minister Sikorski said that “the Polish-US alliance isn’t worth anything.” He also made other comments that are significantly more insulting and disparaging.
In addition, Egypt delivered a stinging humiliation to US Secretary of State Kerry. Just hours after Secretary Kerry warned the Egyptian government about violating freedom of the press by charging three Al Jazeera reporters with criminal violations, the Egyptian government sentenced the three to long prison terms. The timing of the sentencing, while Kerry was still in Egypt, was a sharp reminder of the lost influence of the US in the Middle East as a whole. The insult wounded Kerry just as he was preparing to go to Iraq to encourage Prime Minister al-Maliki to step down.
I have posted many articles on the issue of the purported decline of American power in world affairs. The issue is complex, and defies easy categorization. Chen Jimin is an Assistant Research Fellow for the Institute for International and Strategic Studies at the Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C. and has written a short essay on American exceptionalism. The argument parallels many posited by American analysts, and reflects a belief that the loss of power is largely domestic and internal.
Ahmed Chalabi, former head of the Iraqi National Congress, is positioning himself to replace Nouri al-Maliki as the leader of Iraq. The Iraq National Congress was an organization largely created and funded by the US as an alternative to Saddam Hussein after the Persian Gulf War of 1991. He was actually flown to Iraq after the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 to replace Hussein, but the inability to find weapons of mass destruction deprived the US of the ability to install a new Iraqi leader–the US had to argue that it instead had intervened to establish democracy in Iraq which required elections. The current instability in Iraq offers Chalabi a second chance to serve as an American surrogate in Iraq.
Global poverty is an incredibly elusive phenomenon to measure. Most indicators stress levels of income, and some measure human development indicators such as life expectancy. By these measures, the usual estimate is that there are about 1.2 billion who live in absolute poverty. A new measure, however, called the Multidimensional Poverty Index, has been developed, and this new measure indicates that the old figure is about 1.6 billion, an error of about 400,000 people. The MPI measures different kinds of deprivations experienced by the poor, and develops a more nuanced, composite picture of what it means to be poor.
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