After the economic crisis of 2008-09, many believed that the debts that had grown so large in the 2000s had to be drastically reduced. To this end, many countries were forced to undergo painful spending and budget cuts in a policy that was called “austerity.” The assumption was that by forcing drastic reductions in spending, the debts would be slowly reduced and economic growth would return because the costs of investment would also be reduced. The plan was great in theory, but, in practice, economic growth actually declined in many countries with austerity programs. The graph below dramatically shows the failure of most of the austerity programs (Ireland is a major exception).
The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda, has seized control of Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq. ISIS is an organization populated primarily by Sunni Muslims, the city of Mosul is generally regarded as a Kurdish stronghold, and the government of Iraq is run by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shia Muslim. In short, the political control of Iraq is highly fragmented, and the success of ISIS makes the situation in Iraq highly volatile.
Malaria kills almost a million people a year. The disease is spread by mosquitoes and control of the disease is incredibly difficult. Scientists have developed a genetically modified mosquito that breeds mostly male mosquitoes leading to the possibility of collapsing mosquito populations within six generations. The breakthrough is dramatic, but we should think about whether eradicating mosquito populations is something we wish to do, despite the benefits of wiping out malaria. Scientific advances often lead to ethical questions we are perhaps ill-equipped to answer–humans may not miss mosquitoes, but humans may rely on species that need them.
The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has claimed responsibility for the attack on the Karachi airport yesterday. The sophistication of the attack, as well as the sensitivity of the target, revealed a strength of the TTP that many analysts had failed to realize. It is difficult to imagine how the fragile Pakistani government can withstand such direct challenges to its power and authority without losing more of its legitimacy to the Pakistani polity. Pakistan is likely to go through a very difficult period in the immediate future, and it is not at all obvious how the government can regain the trust of its people.
There is a very controversial advertisement campaign being waged in the Boston subways. Supported by an organization called Ads Against Apartheid, the ads sharply criticize Israeli policies toward Palestinians. Such ads would have been inconceivable several years ago, and they suggest that there may be a shift in attitudes in the US toward Israeli policies in the Occupied Territories. As is usually the case with ad campaigns, it is hard to measure the actual effect on attitudes. Nonetheless, there are likely discussions going on in Boston that are different from those in the past.
The World Cup begins in four days in Brazil, and a metro strike and general unrest have roiled the country in anticipation. Many Brazilians are upset by the $11 billion spent on the tournament, believing that the money could have been better spent on some of the social and economic problems in the country. About 500,000 people from abroad are expected to attend the games, and security in the country has made likfe for many much more difficult.
Heavily armed gunmen have attacked the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan. This event is an ongoing one, and at this time there is no report of who is responsible for the attack. The violence is a clear escalation of the ongoing unrest in Pakistan, and the attack on the airport is a manifestation of the strength of the rebel movements in the country.
Photographic images often tell a great story. The photo below is from the commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the D-Day invasion of Europe. Russian President Putin has been shunned by Western leaders since the turmoil in Ukraine, and the photo conveys his isolation well. Unfortunately, the success of the event, D-Day, owed a great deal to the Soviet pushback of German forces from Russian territory to the German border.
One of the issues we always face in the classroom is the question of whether to allow students to use their laptops during class. Most students take notes on the computer, but some believe that they can “multi-task” and look at something else while keeping full attention on the lecture. The myth of mluti-tasking is incredibly insidious and completely false.
There are about 7,000 distinct languages spoken in the world right now, but about 25% of those languages are in danger of going extinct. Not surprisingly, the rate of extinction is roughly the same as that of biodiversity in the world. The cause for both extinction is the loss of forests, an environment that favors niche existence. About half of the 7,000 languages are currently spoken by fewer than 10,000 people so the perpetuation of those languages is highly problematic. The broader context of globalization makes efforts to preserve those languages both more possible and less likely.
Syrian President Assad was re-elected President of Syria in what can only be regarded as a completely sham election. Voting was only possible in areas controlled by the government. But the outcome was hailed by supporters of Assad as evidence that there is no solution to the civil war in Syria that does not somehow include President Assad. It is highly unlikely that any of the factions within the Syrian opposition will agree to any possible settlement that includes Assad. In short, the stalemate in Syria seems only to have deepened, even as roughly 160,000 people have died in the over three-year war.
The US and Iran are holding face-to-face talks on the Iranian nuclear program. The negotiations thus far have been held under the rubric of the Permanent members of the UN Security Council (France, Great Britain, China, Russia, and the US) plus Germany. The joint negotiations were necessary because Iran and the US do not have diplomatic relations, as well as political pressures on both sides to not show any signs of cooperation. But apparently, the two states have decided to meet in Geneva to hold bilateral discussions. Neither side wishes to make a big deal about the decision since their domestic politics would likely have negative reactions. Nonetheless, the decision is a very big deal, and suggestive of warmer relations and a sense of progress in the talks.
The violence of Boko Haram has led to a massive displacement of Nigerians as they flee toward safety. The International Displacement Monitoring Centre has released a report detailing the significance of the movement which has placed a tremendous burden on Nigeria’s infrastructure. As many as 3 million Nigerians have fled internal violence, at least 250,000 directly from Boko Haram activities. It is the largest number of internally displaced people in Africa, and the third largest population after Syria and Colombia. Unfortunately, the world has not moved to help Nigeria deal with this incredible burden.
The recent European Parliament elections showed a dramatic increase in the popularity of what many consider to be right-wing parties. The shift reflects a growing disenchantment with democracy, with poor economic conditions, and a growing nationalism that particularly targets immigrants. One of the most insidious undertones in the move, however, is the growing evidence of anti-Semitism in the right-wing parties. Needless to say, the change frightens many who care deeply about fundamental human rights.
The European Central Bank brought into a strange new economic world: the world of negative interest rates, where depositors pay banks to store their money. The logic behind the move is to induce people to spend, rather than save, money in order to stimulate demand and increase economic growth. I have serious doubts about the logic of the move, but we shall see.
Crowds estimated to be as high as 180,000 gathered in Hong Kong to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests in Beijing. Chinese citizens on the mainland were not allowed to commemorate the event, and there was a vigorous attempt by the central government to suppress any mention of the anniversary in the media. Several human rights activists from the mainland addressed the crowds. The Communist Party, however, is unlikely to be moved by the event.
US President Obama gave a speech today in Brussels as leaders of many countries gathered to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the allied invasion of France. He took the occasion to condemn Russian moves in Ukraine, referring to the “dark tactics” of the 20th Century, and declaring that “the days of empire and spheres of influence are over”. For his part, Russian President Putin condemned US actions in the world, using very strong language:
“Speaking of US policy, it’s clear that the United States is pursuing the most aggressive and toughest policy to defend its own interests – at least, this is how the American leaders see it – and they do it persistently.
“There are basically no Russian troops abroad while US troops are everywhere. There are US military bases everywhere around the world and they are always involved in the fates of other countries, even though they are thousands of kilometers away from US borders.”
It does not appear that US-Russian relations will be repaired over chocolates in Brussels.
Ever wonder why koalas hug trees? We’ve always believed that the animals hugged the trees because the trees provide them with food and security. However, researchers have found that koalas hug trees to regulate their body temperatures, particularly when the temperature rises. Scientists have found that the temperature close to trees is much lower than the ambient temperature. One of life’s great mysteries is now solved.
On his trip to Poland, US President Obama promised an additional $1 billion in military spending to bolster NATO’s defenses in the wake of Russia’s activities in Ukraine. The money has to be authorized by the US Congress, but it is unlikely that the Congress will balk at the request. The East European states had hoped for a permanent US military base in the region, but such a move would be highly destabilizing to the region and difficult to authorize given the US public’s aversion to additional US commitments abroad. President Obama will meet with Russian President Putin at the ceremonies commemorating the allied invasion of Europe (D-Day) on 6 June 1944.
The Palestinian Authority has addressed the split between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip by creating a unity government. The Israeli government refuses to recognize the new government, even though it is comprised almost exclusively of non-political technocrats and there are no Hamas representatives in the government. Fatah has recognized the right of Israel to exist as a state, but Hamas has never made that declaration. Nonetheless, the US has announced that it is willing to work with the new government since Hamas is not in the government. The Israelis are furious with the US decision, but the European Union, China, India, and Turkey have also indicated that they will work with the unity government.
Fast on the heels of the US decision to cut carbon emissions by 30% by 2030, China has, for the first time, indicated that it, too, will implement an emissions cap. The Chinese have consistently refused to set a cap on emissions, a position that ultimately led to the collapse of the 2009 climate negotiations in Copenhagen. We don’t know what the cap will be, bu the change of position by the Chinese is a dramatic move, and the timing suggests that the US and China have been involved in high-level discussions on the matter for some time.
25 years ago, the Chinese government forcibly suppressed a protest in Tiananmen Square demanding greater political freedoms. It was an amazing time–the Berlin Wall was crumbling, Soviet control over eastern and central European states weakened, and it seemed that those voices for political freedom were being raised in China. The Chinese government does not allow anyone to commemorate the protest, but residents of Hong Kong have special privileges and they held a candlelight vigil in honor of the protesters who lost their lives. The Chinese central government has no intention of allowing similar freedoms elsewhere in China. The photograph below is one of the enduring symbols of the protest as a single man showed his defiance to a line of tanks.
US President Obama has announced a plan to cut carbon emissions from power plants in the US by 30% by the year 2030. This act is the first decisive action taken by the US to confront the problem of climate change, and it will be examined carefully by other countries, most importantly China. No other country is willing to make such a commitment until and unless the US took the lead since the US is one of the top emitters of greenhouse gases in the world (with only 3% of the global population). Now we will see if the world can finally make progress on this issue.
The European Parliament election was generally interpreted as a victory for right-wing parties. Little-noticed, however, was the emergence of some left-wing parties. Syriza was the top vote getter in Greece, and Podemos, a left-wing party formed out of the indignados movement in Spain just four months ago, took five percent of the Spanish vote. Moreover, recent protests in Spain and Germany were barely noticed in the media. The anger toward the austerity programs has hardly diminished.
There were violent clashes between protesters and police as many Turkish citizens tried to recognize the one-year anniversary of the protests at Taksim Square. The protests last year were initially protests against development projects scheduled for a park, but quickly turned into anti-government protests. The government had banned such protests, but many ignored the order. The police used water cannon and tear gas to disperse the crowd. It is very clear that Prime Minister Erdogan has lost the support of many in the middle class and many of the Turkish young people. It is not at all clear how this tension can be resolved.
US Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, accused the Chinese of using “intimidation” and “coercion” in its attempts to assert national control over the South China Sea. The Chinese responded angrily to the charge, as it made clear that the US supports Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam in their recent clashes with the Chinese in the region. Wang Guanzhong, deputy chief of the General Staff of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), argued that the concept of alliances was out of date in the 21st century, a position that undermines the US position with respect to its allies in East and Southeast Asia. The argument, however, more accurately reflects the fact that no state in the region supports the Chinese territorial claims.
Former Egyptian General Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi has won the Presidential election with more than 90% of the vote. The outcome was not a surprise at all, but El-Sisi’s seeming mandate was significantly diluted by the fact that turnout for the election was less than 50% of potential voters. The apathy toward the election was in sharp contrast to the previous election when President Morsi was elected. The suggestion is that the public believed that the election was not a genuine election in any meaningful way.
The Global Summit to End Sexual Violence in Conflict will be held in London on 10-13 June 2014. It is the first global conference of its kind, and it is a conference that is long overdue. There are persistent reports of sexual violence against both women and men in every conflict of which I am aware, and the violence is always considered a “side effect” of the conflict. Nothing could be further from the truth: sexual violence is a regular and systematic instrument of war. The Guardian has a great editorial outlining the significance of the conference.
I admire Fareed Zakaria–he is a truly perceptive analyst even though there are times when I disagree with his point of view. He has written a thoughtful essay on President Obama’s speech at West Point that argues that Obama is on the right track with his foreign policy. Interestingly, Zakaria compares Obama with President Eisenhower, who led the US from 1953-1961, overseeing some serious crises in the Cold War.
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