The New York Times has a very revealing series of maps on the alliances in the Middle East. The maps highlight the alliances between the allies of Iran vs. the allies of the Saudis. Note that the US does not appear to be a consistent ally of either side.
Pope Francis precipitated a diplomatic crisis by referring to the genocide of 1.5 million Armenians in Turkey during the first World War. Turkey recalled its Ambassador to the Vatican after the charge was made. Turkey denies that Armenians were targeted by authorities and that only some Armenians died in the chaos of the war. Turkish allies, such as the United States, choose not to use the world genocide for fear of alienating an important ally. Many analysts regard the deaths of the Armenians as the first genocide of the 20th century.
I have posted a number of articles on the issue of income inequality which I regard as one of the most important issues facing humanity today. The Guardian has an article on how colleges in the US are contributing to the problem of inequality. Needless to say, it is a very depressing article.
China is stepping up its ability to control information flows within the country. A new program, dubbed “The Great Cannon,” does more than simply block sites–it sends malicious scripts to the server that sent the banned sites. In other words, the program is not merely defensive, it is offensive as well. Targeting sites outside of China, however, is a sophisticated form of cyberwarfare and it could be viewed as a weapon to block non-Chinese citizens from reading information. We will have to see how the world reacts to this new tactic.
US President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro met in Panama for the first high-level discussion between the two countries in nearly 60 years. By all accounts the meeting was conducted with mutual respect and a sense of great hope for the future. Much still remains to be done before relations are fully normalized, but it seems clear that both Obama and Castro believe that those steps can be taken. We will have to see how the US Congress regards the prospect of restored full relations.
Bangladesh executed Islamist opposition leader Muhammad Kamaruzzaman on Saturday for war crimes committed during the 1971 war. The war created the independent nation-state of Bangladesh, successfully separating it from Pakistan. About 3 million people dies in the 9-month independence struggle. Virtually every outside observer, including the UN and the European Union, believed that the trial of Kamaruzzaman had not met internationally recognized standards and had urged the death penalty to be set aside. We will also have to see how Kamaruzzman’s supporters react to the execution.
The United Nations maintains a large refugee camp in northeast Kenya for thousands of Somalians who have fled the violence in their country. No one knows how many refugees live in the Dadaab camp–esitmates range from 300-600,000 making it the largest refugee camp in the world. It was established in 1991 and Kenya has demanded that the refugees be moved back to Somalia in three months. The demand comes after the attack on Garissa University and Kenya believes that the refugee camp allows too many security threats to Kenyan citizens. It is impossible to imagine how such a massive population transfer could occur in an orderly fashion in such a short time frame.
One of the P5+1 has spoken out on the issue of when the sanctions against Iran will be lifted. Germany has indicated that ti will stand with the US on the terms of the political agreement that says the sanctions will be lifted when Iran has “fulfilled its commitments.” This position differs from the Iranian position that argues that the sanctions should be lifted when the final agreement is signed. On the other hand, the Reuters article also indicates that German firms are eager for the sanctions to be removed which indicates that Congressional footdragging on the issue will likely not be supported by Germany.
The University of Capetown, South Africa, has temporarily removed a statue of Cecil Rhodes, the British colonizer of much of Africa, from its campus. The statue is to be placed in a museum of South African history, but it will no longer hold a prominent place in the South African landscape. The student body voted to remove the statue in a near-unanimous vote, but there were some South African citizens who objected to the action. The removal of the statue raises interesting questions about how a state remembers it history when the past is so conflictual. The debate parallels many of the discussions in the US about the display of the flag of the Confederate States of America .
The town of Troeglitz in eastern Germany had set up a center to receive refugees and asylum seekers, but the shelter was burned down in what some believe was an act of arson. Germany has received a very large number of refugees from a large number of places, including Kosovo, Syria, Serbia, Albania, Iraq and Afghanistan. Right wing groups have protested against the movement of refugees into the country out of fears of large numbers of Muslims as well as fears of low wage workers displacing German workers.
In an effort to buttress its claims of ownership, China is assiduously building up Mischief Reef in the Spratley Islands. Satellite photographs show the dramatic results of dredging efforts on the reef to create sufficient surface land to build military buildings. The reef is close to the Philippines which also has claims to the territory, as does Vietnam in other areas of the South China Sea. The Chinese are taking these actions in order to solidify their ability to hold the islands in the face of both legal and military opposition.
Photographs taken on January 24, 2012 and March 16, 2015. The white areas denote the dredged sand that China is using to build up the reef.
Nicholas Kristof of The New York Times has an article on the publication of The Social Progress Index for 2015. He examines the ranking of the US on various indices of social progress, such as life expectancy, traffic fatality rates, and suicide rates. These rankings are sobering for Americans. Despite the high level of economic activity in the US, it seems clear that other less-endowed countries do a much better job of making sure that their citizens lives are more stable and secure.
Iran has demanded that their interpretation of the nuclear agreement demands that all the sanctions against Iran be lifted as soon as the agreement is signed. US Secretary of State Kerry said earlier in the week that the sanctions would be lifted in “phases.” It is difficult to determine whether this demand is non-negotiable or whether it is simply part of Iran’s bargaining strategy. One would expect Iran to raise issues given that the US Congress has clearly indicated that it wishes to raise issues itself. What is interesting is that the other members of the P5+1 have not raised any additional issues to this point. The US Congress may find that its changes are opposed not only by Iran, but also by its allies, the Russians, and the Chinese.
Iran has dispatched two warships off the coast of Yemen. The Iranian ships join Saudi and American vessels in the same area, and arrive after the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament accused Saudi Arabia of crimes against humanity for its bombing campaign in Yemen. Needless to say, the action has raised the tensions in the region considerably. The US has positioned two US aircraft carriers, CVN-71 Teddy Roosevelt and CVN-70 Vinson, as well as the amphibious warship Iwo Jima near the Gulf of Aden. Iran’s Press TV reported the move today.
Greek Prime Minister Tsipras turned to Russia for financial assistance in the current Greek standoff with the IMF. Russian President Putin offered moral support, but no financial aid. Greece’s overtures to Russia caused a degree of consternation within the eurozone, as it seems obvious that Russia would enjoy the prospect of exploiting divisions within the EU. It was, however, unlikely that Russia was in any financial position to offer substantial aid to Greece. The Greeks now have to figure out how to buy a number of creditors within the next two weeks or face the prospect of a banking collapse.
US President Obama is scheduled to attend the Summit of the Americas conference in Panama this week, and it is likely that he will meet with Cuban President Raul Castro at the meeting. Polls indicate that President Obama is a very popular figure in Cuba, and that a reinstatement of diplomatic ties would be favored by a large number of Cubans.
Foreign aid from rich countries to poor countries totaled about $135 billion in 2014 according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The total amount was near record levels, but, curiously, aid to middle-income countries increased while aid to the lowest-income countries decreased. The information is relevant as the world prepares for the third International Conference on Financing for Development which will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 13 to 16 July 2015. The Conference will offer an opportunity to think more creatively about the effectiveness of development assistance.
China is planning a major push into robotics. Just twenty years ago, China was able to make incredible inroads into the world’s manufacturing markets due to its low labor costs, much to the detriment of American manufacturing workers. Now, however, China is looking to replace many workers with robots. The shift will likely make Chinese manufacturing even more efficient and less expensive, but the effect on Chinese workers will probably be quite devastating. China currently lacks a large enough consumer market to employ large numbers of workers in service industries. And other countries will have to move into robotics just in order to keep up with the Chinese. Workers everywhere will find themselves in very weak labor markets.
India’s central pollution control board has found that more than half of the country’s rivers are polluted. India already has the record for the city with the dirtiest air (Delhi), and economic activity and population growth has led to the degradation of the environment. Prime Minister Modi has made cleaning up the environment a top priority, but he has also dedicated many of his policies to maximizing economic growth. Attaining both objectives simultaneously will be difficult.
American efforts to prevent its allies from joining China’s Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have utterly failed. The US regarded the AIIB has a potential competitor to the World Bank and was worried about the diminished role of the Bretton Woods Institutions in the contemporary world order. What the US failed to realize is that the Chinese had a very good idea that will likely help many people all across the planet and that will likely make its investors a lot of money. It was a serious mistake for the US to think about the AIIB as an index of American vs. Chinese power in the world. Not everything is related to great power politics.
Researchers from Yale University and Utah State University have conducted a massive poll of American opinions on climate change in every Congressional District. Their findings are that whether one worries about climate change depends a great deal on where one is located. Residents of Washington, DC register the highest level of concern about climate change, while residents of West Virginia are the least concerned group of Americans. The results of the poll are quite interesting, but it seems clear that a majority of Americans believe that global warming is occurring and that something should be done about it. The results suggest that some members of Congress who do not believe that climate change is an issue are not in touch with many of their constituents.
Kenyan warplanes attacked several al Shabab camps in Somalia. The attacks were in response to the extremist attacks on Garissa University. It is not likely that air bombardment would have much effect on the militant group, but the pressure on Kenyan President Kenyatta to retaliate was intense. The countries in the region of East Africa, however, have to figure out a more effective and coordinated response to the threat posed by al Shabab. Moreover, there countries lack the means to deliver a sustained response, and desperately need the help of the most developed countries in the world. The extremist groups–al Shabab, al Qaeda, and the Islamic States–are not coordinating their activities, but they have to be dealt with as if they were a highly coordinated group.
Greece has finally given an estimate of how much money Germany owes the Greeks for the damages inflicted by the German occupation of the country in World War II. The final amount comes to $305.17 billion. There is zero likelihood that Germany would even consider the issue reparations (it made payments in the past and considers the matter closed). But the Greeks are pursuing the issue as a way to undermine the moral legitimacy of German demands for full repayment of Greek sovereign debt.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu came out strongly against the Iran nuclear deal. In a speech, he raised the issue to a global one, arguing that a nuclear armed Iran represents a threat to the whole world. By coming out against the agreement, Netanyahu is openly opposing the Obama Administration. The alternative to the deal is for additional sanctions to be placed on Iran in hopes of getting a better deal. By a “better deal” he presumably means a deal in which Iran would destroy all its nuclear facilities and programs. It is hard to imagine that such an outcome is remotely possible.
Hundreds of Palestinian refugees have fled from the Yarmouk refugee camp just south of Damascus, Syria. They have been caught in the cross-fire between the government forces of President Assad and the forces of the Islamic State. There are reports of beheadings and executions as there is no love lost between the Islamic State and the Palestinian refugees. Most of the camp’s residents had already fled, and those who remained were quite literally those who had no alternative place to go. The political status of a Palestinian refugee is among the lowest imaginable in the world today.
On 9 April the Greek government must repay the IMF a €450 million loan. There are serious questions whether the government has the money, although it claims that it does. The Greeks are desperately trying to renegotiate the terms of the repayment, and the IMF is more open to such changes than is the EU or the European Central Bank. But much remains in doubt, and the world will be watching what happens as the date approaches.
The Guardian has gallery of photographs of how human beings affect the environment. Some have started to call the current era of the Earth the Anthropocene Era to signify the decisive impact of human activity on the planet as a living organism. The photographs are truly sobering.
The Brahmaputra River has three names. In Tibet, it is known as the Yarlung Tsangpo; in Arunachal Pradesh, it is known as the Siang River; in Assam, India, it is known as the Brahmaputra; In Bangladesh, it is called the Jamuna where it joins the Ganges (known as the Padma in Bangladesh) and Meghna Rivers until it flows in the Bay of Bengal. China has plans to dam the Brahmaputra in Tibet, and those plans have unnerved the downstream countries who fear the loss of water and the potential for increased silt. Fresh water disputes will become more common as the resource becomes more constrained due to pollution and increased demand. But coordinating water usage of such large rivers is extremely complicated and disputatious.
Iraqi troops looted many areas of Tikrit after they chased the Islamic State militants from the city. The looting was interpreted by the residents as done primarily by Shi’ite forces which complicates the Iraqi government’s desire to transcend the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide which weakens the government. The looting only solidifies the feeling among the Sunni residents of Iraq that the only alternative to the Iraqi government is the Islamic State.
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