The extremist group, al-Shabab, launched an attack on Garissa University in northeastern Kenya, and killed at least 147 people. The group is based in Somalia and has been around since the 1990s. The tension between Kenya and al-Shabab revolves around Kenyan efforts to dislodge the groups from East Africa. In September 2013 the group attacked civilians at a shopping mall in Nairobi, and the US has tried drone attacks and special operations to degrade the group. Obviously, US and Kenyan efforts have not been successful.
Peter Beinart is a sophisticated analyst of Middle East politics and he has thought deeply about the significance of the Iranian nuclear deal. Both the US and Iran were very specific about compartmentalizing the nuclear agreement–for both sides the agreement meant nothing about any other aspect of their relationship. Both sides wanted to remain enemies in order to defuse the anger of their own hardliners. Nonetheless, Beinart argues that the recognition of mutual shared interests means something for the future of US-Iran relations.
The Pew Research Institute has released a new report on the future of world religions. The report indicates that there will be major changes in the distribution of various world religions by 2050 due to demographic changes. Demography, however, is not necessarily destiny. What we do not know is the interpretations of the major world religions by 2050: there are wide variations in degrees of adherence that cannot be anticipated.
The P5+1 and Iran announced an interim agreement today after marathon sessions which went beyond the agreed upon deadline of 31 March. If one wishes to see the terms of the agreement, click here (I will not ask any questions on the quiz about these specifics). I will have to go over the agreement very carefully before I make an assessment of its effectiveness. But the initial read suggests that Iran made some very significant concessions on its capabilities in return for a swift removal of the sanctions–itself a major concession of the P5+1. It also seems as if the International Atomic Energy Agency will have the ability to monitor the agreement rather intrusively. But my initial reactions are not shared by the Washington Post or by Israel. Members of the US Senate are also moving toward legislation which would give Congress authority to review the agreement.
Thailand’s military lifted martial law ten months after it seized power in a coup d’etat. The move is a welcome one, but it appears as if the military will retain power through Article 44 of the Thai constitution. Nonetheless, pressure from human rights activists and business groups has taken a toll on the Thai economy, and the military is clearly trying to reassure the world that the country is moving back toward democracy.
Islamic State fighters have claimed that they have seized control of the Yarmouk refugee camp in Syria. The camp is populated by about 500,000 Palestinian refugees and is remarkably close to the capital city of Damascus. If the reports are accurate, they suggest that the Islamic State is making significant progress in its fight against President Assad.
Income and wealth inequality is unquestionably the most important economic issue of the contemporary world, yet few really understand its significance. Most of us very rarely interact with the very, very rich and therefore have no idea how wide the gap may be. Studies indicate that most Americans significantly underestimate the degree of inequality and it is very likely that those numbers represent the vast majority of people on the planet.
The negotiations in Switzerland between the P5+1 and Iran have passed the deadline, but the US and Iranian delegations are still at it. Other delegations have left, but both the US and Iran desperately need an agreement. The Washington Post has a very good article on the remaining issues–it is a fair and dispassionate account of what keeps the two sides apart.
Muhammadu Buhari has declared victory, and Goodluck Jonathan has conceded defeat, in the Nigerian elections. Buhari won decisively in the northern part of the country (as expected), but it appears as if the people of Nigeria were looking to put behind them the corruption of the current government. Moreover, many expect Buhari to be more effective in dealing with the Boko Haram insurgency in the north. The election was a victory for democracy in Nigeria with the peaceful transition of power.
Antarctica recorded its highest temperature at a record high of 63.5F (17.5C) on 24 March (much warmer than in was in South Hadley on that day). The record is a troubling sign of global warming and it comes amid growing evidence that the ice sheets in Antarctica are melting at a faster rate than had been realized.
It is not often that we are able to witness major shifts in the balance of power as they happen. But since March of 2003, there has been a slow but steady shift of power toward Iran in the Middle East, and the US has slowly but surely been moving to acknowledge that shift. The changes in policy associated with that change are often not openly acknowledged, but it seems obvious that the US and Iran are moving toward a rapprochement.
Pakistan has joined the Saudi coalition to fight the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Saudi coalition of Sunni Muslim states has become a global one with the addition of Pakistan. The relationship between the two states is long-standing, and Pakistan has been the recipient of Saudi financial assistance in the past. The alliance, however, brings a nuclear power to the battle. Moreover, the alliance will certainly aggravate the Shia minority in Pakistan.
The Nigerian presidential election was not perfect, but outside election monitors do not believe that the technological glitches or the outbreaks of sporadic violence in certain polling areas fundamentally compromised the outcome. The vote-counting process is still going on, and right now Goodluck Jonthan has a very small lead over his opponent, Muhammadu Buhari. There are, however, numerous complaints of fraud that need to be investigated before the outcome can be determined. There still remains the possibility of violence once the results are announced.
The Iranian negotiations are going down to the wire. The deadline for a political framework is midnight on Tuesday, and Russian foreign Minister Lavrov left the talks with a comment that he would return only if there was progress in the talks. There really is no way to assess the likelihood of success or failure–all the participants have been very close-mouthed about the remaining issues. The Tuesday deadline is only the first step. Even if the deadline is met, the deadline for the final technical agreement is 30 June.
The West has placed a lot of faith in the economic sanctions it has placed on Russia as the most effective way to get Russia to change its policies toward Ukraine. There is little question that the sanctions have had a dramatic effect on the Russian economy, but there are reasons to believe that the sanctions will not be effective. At some point the West will have to reassess whether it should apply greater pressure in the form of military aid to Kiev or whether it should simply concede that eastern Ukraine will ultimately become part of Russia.
The emerging war in Yemen is not only politically destabilizing–it could be economically destabilizing as well. A lot of oil flows through the Red Sea and oil prices shot up 6% last week as traders began to fear some sort of blockade on traffic through the crowded chokepoint. There are a number of countries who have a strong vested interest in the control of the Red Sea, and none of them will allow access to be compromised in any way.
Japan has commissioned a new helicopter destroyer, the JS Izumo, which be the largest vessel in the Japanese fleet. Japan is careful to point out that the vessel will be used for the dispatch of helicopters, but the world is well aware of the fact that the vessel could also accommodate fixed-wing aircraft, making the ship the functional equivalent of an aircraft carrier. The Japanese military buildup is largely in response to a similar Chinese military program. The arms race, however, is the classic example of the security dilemma where purely defensive moves are often interpreted by others as offensive and aggressive.
Physicians for Social Responsibility is a non-governmental organization that addresses the medical issues associated with various public policies. It has published a new study on the civilian casualties in the American interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in the “war on terror” since 2003. The American military did not publish information on civilian casualties in those wars, and we have relied only on unsystematic studies for estimates. This study uses accepted techniques for those estimates, and the conclusions are significantly higher than earlier ones. Unfortunately, civilian casualties did not figure prominently in the American discussions of the wars. For purposes of the quiz on 1 April, I will only use information from pages 15-18 of the study.
The Iranian negotiations are going down to the wire. They are scheduled to end on Sunday, and reports are that many of the issues have been resolved but some still remain. The negotiators have been working overtime, and Iranian President Rouhani made a point of contacting the heads of state of each of the P5+1. It seems clear that all parties want to reach agreement, so the final unresolved matters must be of serious consequence.
The US has found itself allied with Iran against the Islamic State. And now it finds itself allied with Saudi Arabia against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The shifting alliances are creating incredible uncertainty in the Middle East, and the potential for miscalculation increases with every violent outbreak. Needless to say, the situation in the region is becoming increasingly dangerous.
China has one of the most economies in the world right now. It has made extraordinary progress in reducing absolute poverty over the last 20 years but it also an economy where income inequality is growing the fastest. The paradox is resolved by looking at the growth of the highest incomes in China which has been explosive. China is creating more millionaires and billionaires than any other country. Whether the Chinese people care more about absolute or relative poverty is something we will likely learn in the next few years.
One country that is not experiencing such robust growth is Greece, and the situation there is getting desperate. Because of fears concerning the Greek economy, people are pulling their money out of Greek banks, and the decline in deposits has been precipitous. Given the rapid rate of withdrawal, it is not at all clear that Greek banks will be able to survive.
Tomorrow Nigerians will vote in their Presidential election. Current President Goodluck Jonathan and former President Muhammadu Buhari. It is a hotly contested race and the stakes are quite high for Nigeria and the world. Nigeria is a critically important country in the global economy, but it has failed to reach its full potential, largely because of poor governance and the inordinate influence of outside powers in its internal affairs. Elections in Nigeria have often been accompanied by violence; let’s hope that that pattern does not recur this time around.
As the deadline for an Iranian nuclear agreement nears, there are voices joining with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu who believe that no agreement should be reached. One of the leading analysts in the US neoconservative ranks is John Bolton, who was the US Ambassador to the UN in 2005-06. He has written an op-ed piece for the New York Times arguing that the only viable course of action is to destroy militarily the Iranian nuclear facilities. My own view is that Bolton is overly optimistic about what military action can accomplish, and that such an action would be disastrous.
Saudi Arabia has stepped up its pressure on Yemen by blockading the critical Red Sea. The critical Strait of Bab el Mandeb has been a strategic chokepoint since the time of the Pharoahs, and Saudi control of the Red Sea will put tremendous pressure on the Houthi rebels. Interestingly, the US has an important military base in Djibouti from which it will be able to give significant support to the Saudi effort. Moreover, the Saudis must have cleared the operation with Israel since a great deal of Israeli trade emanates from the Gulf of Aqaba at the northern part of the Red Sea. The seriousness of the effort is a good index of the increased fear of Iran which is motivating Saudi policy.
I have tried to track down some additional information on the Greek demands for reparations for the damages inflicted by Germany on the country during World War II. It has been a frustrating process since apparently no one wishes to talk openly about the matter. But Spiegel has run a short article which provides some additional information on the demands, and it seems from that report that the Greeks have a strong basis for their claims.
Saudi Arabia has launched an attack on the Houthi rebels who have seized power in Yemen. The Houthi rebels are nominally supported by Iran, although the Houthi struggle against the Sunni government of Yemen has long-standing internal issues. Nonetheless, the Houthi are Shia Muslims, and Saudi Arabia regards their overthrow of the Sunni government of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi as an extension of Iranian power in the Gulf region. The Saudis claim to have a ten-state coalition supporting its efforts, but did not name those allies. Presumably the US has been apprised of the attack and is likely providing technical assistance. It is highly doubtful, however, that the US will get directly involved in this conflict.
The Greek government is in a desperate scramble to find enough money to repay an IMF loan which is due on 9 April. The Greeks are taking money out of pension plans, money designated for farm subsidies, and stopping payment on all supplies for the state government. Metaphorically, the Greeks are searching underneath the couch cushions to find enough money to avoid a default. In the midst of this crisis, the troika continues to insist upon regular repayment of the debt obligations. All evidence suggests that the relations between the government and the troika are essentially unproductive.
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