Human smuggling can be a very lucrative business. Voyages from Libya cost each refugee between $1,000 and $2,000: the trade is facilitated by the total chaos in Libya. To go from Senegal to Libya could cost an additional $1,000 and from Ethiopia, another $2,500. Prices vary by the type of transport: the riskier travel by inflatable dinghy costs less than if one wishes to travel on a wooden boat. But in all cases, the smugglers do not guarantee safe delivery, and do not even care if the refugees make the trip alive. These prices are a lifetime of income for many of the refugees, and simply reflects their total desperation. Nonetheless, the head of the EU border agency, Fabrice Leggeri, is quoted in the Irish Times to have said that “that saving migrants’ lives in the Mediterranean should not be the priority for the maritime patrols he is in charge of.” Leggeri believes that rescuing the refugees on a regular basis would only encourage more to undertake the risky trip.
The Gallup poll has done a survey on which groups in the US believe that global warming will occur in their lifetimes. The results are fascinating. The pollsters identified five political leanings: liberal Democrats, conservative/moderate Democrats, non-leaning independents, liberal/moderate Republicans, and conservative Republicans. By substantial majorities, the first four groups all believe that global warming will occur in their lifetimes. Conservative Republicans, however, reject that possibility and 40% of that group do not believe that global warming will ever happen. What the poll does not tell us is what percentage of the electorate is comprised of conservative Republicans.
Over the last few weeks, 40 farmers in India have committed suicide, and about 300,000 farmers have killed themselves over the last twenty years. Despite its impressive economic growth in the last few years, India still has a very large agricultural sector which is quite precarious. The heavy rains over the last few months have destroyed many crops and the farmers, who are usually heavily in debt are the beginning of the growing season, find themselves in an impossible financial situation if the crops fail.
The National Review has a provocative article entitled “Has the Globalization Trend Already Peaked?” The author of the article, Michael Barone, argues that there are many parallels between the world in 1913 and the world after the financial crisis of 2008-09. World War I definitely ended the first phase of globalization and the consequences of that collapse were devastating to the liberal world order. There are scary parallels, such as the drop in world trade after 2008, but the strong growth in nationalism in the early 1900s has not yet happened in the contemporary period. There are, however, signs that nationalism is in fact on the increase, particularly in the growth of right-wing parties in Europe.
The flood of migrants from Libya into Europe and the resulting tragedies of so many drowning deaths in the Mediterranean are a consequence of the total breakdown of order in Libya. That breakdown, in turn, was due to the Western intervention in 2011. The intervention started out as a purely humanitarian mission designed to protect Libyan civilians from the armies of Muammar Qaddafi. The mission changed to one of regime change–a foolish move given that there was no one to replace Qaddafi. Since then, there has been no effective governance in the country and people are desperate to leave despite the very obvious risks.
The recent dispute between Turkey and the Pope over the Pope’s characterization of the deaths of 1.5 million Armenians in 1915 as a genocide has highlighted the political nature of the term. The US government, in deference to Turkish sentiments, still refuses to call the genocide a “genocide.” The Los Angeles Times has an article that describes the difficulties associated with the use of the term.
The US is beefing up its naval forces near Yemen. The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its escort, the USS Normandy, arrived to join seven other vessels in the region. ABC News is reporting that an Iranian convoy of eight vessels to the Arabian Sea and the US forces may be used to interdict weapons for Iran destined for the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The UN Security Council voted (14-0-1, Russia abstained on the resolution) to impose an arms embargo on Yemen, so the US could intercept those Iranian vessels and argue that it was enforcing an UN resolution. Needless to say, any such move on the part of the US would be considered an act of war by Iran, the UN resolution notwithstanding. The tensions continue to escalate.
USS Theodore Roosevelt
Peter Beinart has a great essay in The Atlantic in which he argues that the Iranian nuclear deal could actually bring a higher degree of democracy to Iran. The argument is actually quite simple: that the hard line approach that the US had utilized against Iran for many years has given the current Iranian regime the legitimacy necessary to override the desire of the Iranian people for a greater voice in their political affairs. We do know that there is a strong reform movement in Iran (it was called the “green” revolution in the election of 2009), but we do not know how strong it is at this time. The undertone to Beinart’s essay is that a softer line may yield better results than a “hard” line on the issue of democracy.
Chinese President Xi is visiting Pakistan where he is expected to announce a major investment in Pakistan’s transportation infrastructure. The ambitious plan is to build a network of rail and truck lines from CHina’s Xinjiang Province to the port of Gwadar in Pakistan where Chinese goods can be shipped through the Indian Ocean to other areas of the world. The plan is part of the transportation network Xi envisions to construct a new “silk road” to facilitate Chinese trade.
A ship with as many as 700 refugees capsized in the Mediterranean en route from Libya to Italy. Authorities believe that only about 50 of the refugees survived. Last year 219,000 people crossed the Mediterranean by sea and 3,500 died. Smugglers transport the refugees for a hefty price but pay scant attention to the sea worthiness of the vessels used or for the welfare of the desperate people seeking a better life. Despite the fact that this tragedy keeps reoccurring, the world has done precious little to address the problem ,
Iran has rejected any possibility of the International Atomic Energy Agency inspecting military sites in Iran. The NPT refers to civilian nuclear facilities and none of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council allows inspection of military sites. However, in the preliminary agreement, Iran is bound to allow inspections at all “suspicious” sites. This ambiguity in the preliminary agreement may be a real stumbling block in the final agreement.
The person most responsible for the development of the Islamic State was Haji Bakr, a former colonel in the intelligence service of Saddam Hussein’s air defense force. The German magazine, Spiegel, had access to secret documents the Bakr has hidden away and has revealed how Bakr meticulously planned the rise of the Islamic State in Syria in order to regain power in Iraq. Bakr was hardly an Islamist, and it is clear that the Islamic State was nothing more than a ruthless plan for Iraqi Sunnis to regain power in Iraq. How the situation has changed.
In class we have discussed the question of whether the US is losing its position of dominance in the global system, whether by choice or by a loss of power. The evidence for this shift in the American position is substantial in the economic arena. The New York Times has an article today with a great deal of evidence that supports this point of view. The question is not whether the US is still a global hegemon; the real question is the extent to which the world order can handle the loss of a rule enforcer. Will it adjust by coming up with alternative ways to assure compliance or will it begin to degrade?
The National Interest published a short article today that suggests, but does not prove, that West Germany provided Israel with the necessary funds to build its nuclear arsenal. The article references an article in the conservative German newspaper, Die Welt, which can be accessed from the article [the article is in German]. Israel does not admit that it possesses nuclear weapons. Interestingly, it appears as if France, Norway, and Great Britain were also involved in helping Israel develop the bomb.
Dimona, the site of Israel’s nuclear research facility in the Negev desert
The IMF has ruled out the possibility that Greece may be allowed to delay a loan repayment of about 1 billion euro due next month. The IMF and Germany regard the concessions made by Greece on trimming its budget deficit are not adequate, and insist that Greece must cut the pensions available to its citizens. Earlier in the day there was a flurry of excitement as Spiegel reported that Russia was going to extend a 5 billion euro credit to Greece as part of a natural gas pipeline deal. Later on in the day, The Telegraph reported that there was no deal in the works.
57 countries have joined the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as charter members. The US and Japan did not join and Taiwan’s bid was not accepted, but virtually every other rich country is a member. The bank intends to open for business next year but it will have capital resources of about $100 billion. The support for the bank represents a defeat for the US which had urged states not to join because of fears of how the bank will be run–the US fears that its transactions will not be fully transparent. Initially, voting rights in the bank will be based on a state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a rule that clearly favors the decisions of the richer countries.
Thailand’s military leaders set up a constitutional review committee to write a new constitution, and it issued a draft constitution that is likely to create controversy. The draft will undergo a review before it is finally accepted, but it provides immunity for the military officers who led the coup d’etat last year. Moreover, it allows a non-elected official to become Prime Minister which many suspect is a loophole designed to allow the general who led the coup, Prayuth Chan-ocha, to remain as Prime Minister even though he has never been elected to Parliament. The next few weeks are critical to the re-establishment of democracy in Thailand and we will have to watch events there carefully.
Palm oil is one of the most common of all vegetable oils, accounting for about 40% of all internationally traded vegetable oils. Palm plantations have been popping up all over the tropical parts of the world to keep up with demand, but those plantations are often created through widespread deforestation and destruction of natural habitats. There is a growing controversy over the creation of a palm plantation in Peru which is being set up to provide the oil for chocolate (my favorite food group!). The project is supported by a company called United Cacao which markets itself as an ethical alternative investment (its website, http://www.unitedcacao.com, was down at the time of this posting). There are questions, however, about the seeming disregard for the environment in the Peruvian plantation.
Pope Francis ignited a firestorm of criticism from Turkey with his reference to the Armenian genocide. The genocide, which took place 100 years ago, was the first of the particularly bloody 20th century. The Turks admit that killings did take place, but they were deaths associated with the conduct of the first World War. The New York Times ran an article that brings substantive information to the debate and places the horrible episode in historical context. The discussion is especially vital in light of Holocaust Remembrance Day, a tragedy that we all must assure never happens again.
The World Bank was created in 1944 to aid in the reconstruction of Europe after World War II. In the 1960s it changed its focus to the newly liberated states in what was then called the Third World. Since it is an institution built upon liberal principles, it is not surprising that it has favored market solutions to the problem of poverty in the former colonies. Since the 1960s, many analysts have questioned whether these principles are in fact responsive to the needs of impoverished peoples. The critiques of World Bank activities are extensive, and the most recent one focuses on how the World Bank resettles poor people in order to build projects that rarely make a dent in local poverty.
A high unemployment rate has fueled the rise of anti-immigrant sentiment in South Africa. Many of these migrants are fleeing violence in their home countries as well as the lack of economic opportunities. In the most recent protests, four immigrants have been killed in recent weeks. The anger goes back to 2008, and many migrants are preparing to leave the country or are being shunted to safer places. The government has issued strong statements against the violence, but has done precious little to prevent it. Anti-immigrant sentiment seems to be nearly universal sentiment in many countries in the world today. Unless the economic situation improves globally, one should expect such feelings to grow.
Scientific American has a feature in which readers can pose a question about science to be answered by expert opinion. This month the question was “Have we passed the point of no return on climate change?” The answer is quite sophisticated but also quite sobering. The answer is that we have not yet passed the point of no return, but it is only a few (according some, five) years away. We are quite clearly running out of time.
Both the US and China are showing signs of an economic slowdown, raising fears that they will drag the global economy down. US industrial production took a sharp dive last quarter and China’s economy only grew by 7%–a huge number for most other countries but a disappointment for China. With concerns about economic growth in the emerging economies of Brazil and India, a stalled Russian economy, and a slowly growing European economy, the loss of US and China as engines of economic activity could push the global economy into a recession.
Female genital mutilation appears to be a standard practice in Indonesia and it is generally done in hospitals with exceptional hygiene. The practice was banned in Indonesia in 2006, but the ban was repealed in 2010 due to pressure from many religious organizations. The UN defines 4 types of female genital mutilation, and the 4th type (which is defined as female circumcision in Indonesia) generally does not involve removing any part of the genitalia. The practice seems to be less common than in the past, but is still fairly pervasive in Indonesia.
There is a “blob” of abnormally warm water off the Pacific northwest coast that may be partially responsible for the current drought in California. The expanse of unusually warm water (about 5 degrees F warmer than usual) cannot yet be fully explained, but some believe that it may be responsible for the deaths of many aquatic animals (like the young sea lions who are washing up on the California coast). The blob is just another example of weather anomalies that defy full explanation but which may also be associated with climate change.
US President Obama has taken Cuba off the list of states that sponsor terrorism, opening the possibility for a return to full diplomatic relations between the US and Cuba. The move is long overdue–the US policy over the past 53 years will go down in history as one of the most futile diplomatic gestures ever maintained. What is most surprising to me is the relative lack of conservative backlash over the move. So far, Sen. Marco Rubio is the only national politician to have registered more than a token note of disapproval.
It appears as if the US Senate has reached a compromise agreement that will give Congress a voice in the Iranian nuclear agreement but which does not seem to allow any changes to the agreement that may undo it. That compromise is a welcome change from the rhetoric of a few days ago, and represents a move away the preferred position of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of not allowing Iran to maintain any enrichment capability. There are signs, however, that the House of Representatives, whose members are more hawkish on the issue, may demand a voice in the matter as well.
Russia has announced that it intends to honor a 2010 agreement with Iran to sell advanced missile systems. The Russians deferred delivery of those systems as part of the UN sanctions designed to force a nuclear agreement. The Russians also announced that they would begin a new trade agreement with Iran, buying Iranian oil in exchange for Russian products. The Russian move is clearly premature since the final agreement is not supposed to be signed until 30 June 2015. The decision could have two effects on US policy. First, it could be used as evidence that the agreement with Iran is not enforceable and therefore scuttle the agreement. Second, it could be used as evidence that the preliminary deal is better than nothing and that no additional sanctions would have any effect on Iranian policy thereby sealing the deal. We will see how Congress decides to interpret the move. The Russian move will also make any military action against Iran very difficult. The new S-300 antiaircraft missiles will make bombing Iran very problematic.
UNICEF, the UN Children’s Emergency Fund, estimates that about 800,000 children have been displaced in Nigeria as a result of the violence perpetrated by Boko Haram. Many of these children have been kidnapped and sold as slaves by the group, and UNICEF believes that about 15,000 people have died since 2009 in the violence. The previous government of Goodluck Jonathan was completely incompetent in dealing with the threat. We can hope that the new President, Buhari, will be significantly more effective in restoring order.
The Financial Times is reporting that the Greek government is preparing to default on its government debt. Greece went through similar crises in 2010 and 2012 but managed to survive those scares so it is difficult to figure out how accurate the report is. The FT has a paywall but here are some excerpts from the article:
“The government, which is rapidly running out of funds to pay public sector salaries and state pensions, has decided to withhold €2.5bn of payments due to the International Monetary Fund in May and June if no agreement is struck, they said.
“’We have come to the end of the road . . . If the Europeans won’t release bailout cash, there is no alternative [to a default],’ one government official said.”
The FT has an outstanding reputation for accuracy so this report should be taken seriously.
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