Military spending in the US is unusually difficult to analyze. Most weapons now are extremely sophisticated and require funding over many years, sometimes decades. And defense contractors are notoriously unreliable in their initial cost estimates. The US has just named Northrup Grumman as the company to build the next generation of strategic bombers. The problem is that no one knows how much it will cost. If the F-35 is any example, we can expect the cost to be at least double the initial estimate of $56 billion for a fleet of 100 bombers.
Artist Rendering of Proposed Long-Range Bomber
US President Obama has decided that the US will not build the Keystone XL pipeline that was proposed to bring Canadian heavy oil to the US. Environmentalists have opposed the pipeline for a variety of reasons, but the fossil fuel industry has been staunchly supportive. President Obama noted that his opposition to the pipeline was rooted in concerns over climate change and the need to move away from hydrocarbons. Such a statement would have been almost impossible several years ago.
Tensions escalated in the Occupied West Bank as Palestinians used firearms to attack Israelis instead of knives and stones. Three people were injured in the attacks in the city of Hebron, and a Palestinian was killed by Israeli forces. “Since mid-September, 11 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks, most of them in stabbings, while 72 Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire….” The use of firearms indicates that the violence will likely escalate, and there is virtually no reason to believe that it will subside in the near future. On Monday, US President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet to discuss US-Israeli relations. It does not appear as if renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations is on the agenda for that meeting.
The US formally annexed Hawaii by an Act of Congress in 1893. Prior to that point it was known as the Kingdom of Hawaii. There is currently a move in Hawaii to recognize formally the rights of native Hawaiians within the framework of Hawaiian statehood in the US. The move is different from Federal recognition of Native American nations on the North American continent–those nations were formally incorporated into the Federal government as “domestic dependent nations.” But the status of Native Hawaiians has never been legally determined and there is some question about whether the Congressional annexation makes any sense in an international law framework. By most legal precedents, Hawaii should be considered “occupied territory” for those who never accepted the rule of the US government. The debate is a contemporary example of the difference between nation and state.
A new report indicates that the US attack on a hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan which was run by Doctors Without Borders on 3 October of this year was, at best, a brutal example of extraordinary incompetence and, at worst, a fairly clear-cut war crime. I have been waiting for more information about the attack, and this latest report does not answer all the questions about the attack, but sheds enough light to indicate that the US is morally culpable for the incident. I will continue to wait for the US government report before I reach a conclusion, but these preliminary results are quite discouraging.
President Pierre Nkurunziza remains in office after his election in a disputed third term in office (the constitution only allows two terms). The country has been very tense since that disputed election and Nkurunziza amplified the tension by passing a edict requiring all citizens to hand over any guns in their possession. Analysts fear that violence will explode in the country as the deadline for the handovers of 7 November nears. Burundi has long experienced violent instability and a new flare-up will return the country to that depressing path.
Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan are scheduled to meet this weekend in Singapore for the first such meeting since the Chinese civil war in 1949. In that year, the Kuomintang fled the mainland of China and set up an independent Republic of China in opposition to the People’s Republic of China established by Mao Zedong. The US supported the Republic of China until 1972 when US President Nixon recognized the PRC as the official government of the Chinese people. Since that time, China has regarded the government in Taiwan as a renegade province that needs ultimately to be unified with China. Presumably, that reunification will be a concern for the two Presidents, but it is unlikely that either side will make any explicit comments about it.
In a setback to efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions, researchers have found that China has underestimated its coal consumption by about 17%, or about the same amount of carbon dioxide that Germany emits in a year. The news will undoubtedly have an effect on the climate change talks scheduled for the end of the year in Paris. The discrepancy is an indication of how difficult it is to gather accurate information about the ecological consequences of human activity and does not necessarily reflect an attempt by China to distort its figures.
The latest theory behind the Russian airline tragedy in Egypt is that a bomb was responsible for the disaster. At this time, all I have are assertions by British intelligence agencies with hints of confirmation by US intelligence. There is no reason to rush to a judgment. I intend to wait for the evidence to be presented and assessed by experts. I vividly remember how we were all assured that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction in 2003.
In a very important development, Russia has indicated that it is not “important” for Syrian President Assad to remain in power. The working assumption behind the explanation for the strong Russian intervention in Syria was precisely that Russia wanted to keep Assad in power even though the West had said repeatedly that Assad had to go. Apparently, there have been behind the scene discussions between US Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that have been fruitful. How Assad leaves will depend on how Russia defines a “graceful” departure and how much slack the West in willing to give Assad–perhaps immunity from prosecution for war crimes or the retention of great wealth. We will see how Iran responds.
The Defense Ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are meeting and struggling with the question of whether to take a stand on China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. Most of the members oppose China’s claims, but Cambodia (which does not have a claim) is a strong Chinese ally. Since ASEAN insists on not taking votes but relies on consensus decisions instead, a statement would require a break from that rule. The decision will mark an important moment in the evolution of ASEAN as a political agent.
The pressure of refugees flooding into their countries is forcing some European nations to consider closing their borders in the same way that Hungary did a few weeks ago. Right now, the refugees are moving through the Balkan states of Croatia, Serbia, and Slovenia, into Austria and ultimately to Germany. Many, however, fear that the pressure on Germany to restrict the number of refugees it accepts will only grow, trapping the refugees in countries with much smaller populations and economies. Croatia is holding a national election in a few days, and if the right-wing candidate wins, it will almost certainly close its borders.
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey won a decisive victory in the snap elections on Sunday. The results obviate the need for a coalition government and will undoubtedly strengthen the hand of President Erdogan who made no secret of his desire for single party rule in the run-up to the election. The results were a blow to the Kurdish parties and the Republican People’s Party (CHP). The Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe both raised doubts about the legitimacy of the election, noting the violence encountered in certain election districts. But those doubts will not affect the outcome at all.
The US Department of Defense spent $43 million to build a compressed natural gas station in Sheberghan, Afghanistan making it the world’s most expensive gas station. Similar gas stations in neighboring Pakistan cost about $500,000 to build. The gas station was built in order to prove that such stations were feasible for automobiles, but no one can explain why this particular gas station cost so much. The Task Force in charge of building the gas station was decommissioned last March and apparently there is no one who can answer any questions about the gas station at the Pentagon. The “fog of war” is clearly a source of incredible corruption.
Stephen Kinzer was a reporter for the New York Times and has written extensively on Iran. He has published a rather long essay on life in Iran now that is definitely worth reading. There are so many misconceptions about Iran in the West, fueled by incessant government propaganda, that it is difficult for many in the West to truly understand what is going on in the society. Kinzer gives a very good summary of the major issues dividing the West and Iran but offers a great deal of hope that the nuclear deal can signal the beginning of a better relationship.
Another publisher has been murdered in Bangladesh. Faisal Arefin Dipan published the works of Avijit Roy who was murdered last February. Roy was a blogger who sharply criticized religious fundamentalism in Bangladesh. Defenders of secularism has have a tough time in Bangladesh as religious extremists seek to impose religious law in the country. Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, has criticized those who defend secularism and has been quoted as saying that writers should “not hurt anybody’s [religious] feeling. When you are living in a society, you have to honor the social values, you have to honor the others’ feelings.”
It is impossible to know Russian President Vladimir Putin’s true objectives in moving into Ukraine and Syria. But Tim Marshall argues that geography explains a great deal of Russian motives. Marshall argues that the relatively flat “European plain” is a very inviting corridor for those who wish to invade Russia (think Charles XII, Napoleon, and Hitler), and Russia is constantly worried about creating defensive barriers to such invasion by controlling countries along its western border. Geopolitics can explain a great deal.
There are fires burning in the forests of Indonesia that are emitting more carbon dioxide than the US does. Not only are the trees and other vegetation burning, but the underlying peat is burning as well. The smoke pervades Indonesia and spreads to Singapore and Malaysia as well. The threat to endangered animal species is quite high, as is the threat to human lives. The last time fires were as widespread in Indonesia as they are today, 17,000 children died from the effects of the smoke.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague has ruled in favor of the case submitted by the Philippines concerning maritime claims in the South China Sea and has accepted jurisdiction on the case. The ruling is a setback to China which had claimed that the court had no jurisdiction over the matter, and China had not submitted any materials to the court disputing the case bright by the Philippines. China rested its refusal on Article 298 of the UN Conference of the Sea which reads, in part:
“Article 298. Optional exceptions to applicability of section 2
“1. When signing, ratifying or acceding to this Convention or at any time thereafter, a State may, without prejudice to the obligations arising under section 1, declare in writing that it does not accept any one or more of the procedures provided for in section 2 with respect to one or more of the following categories of disputes:
(a)
(i) disputes concerning the interpretation or application of articles 15, 74 and 83 relating to sea boundary delimitations, or those involving historic bays or titles, provided that a State having made such a declaration shall, when such a dispute arises subsequent to the entry into force of this Convention and where no agreement within a reasonable period of time is reached in negotiations between the parties, at the request of any party to the dispute, accept submission of the matter to conciliation under Annex V, section 2; and provided further that any dispute that necessarily involves the concurrent consideration of any unsettled dispute concerning sovereignty or other rights over continental or insular land territory shall be excluded form such submission;
(ii) after the conciliation commission has presented its report, which shall state the reasons on which it is based, the parties shall negotiate an agreement on the basis of that report; if these negotiations do not result in an agreement, the parties shall, by mutual consent, submit the question to one of the procedures provided for in section 2, unless the parties otherwise agree;
(iii) this subparagraph does not apply to any sea boundary dispute finally settled by an arrangement between the parties, or to any such dispute which is to be settled in accordance with a bilateral or multilateral agreement binding upon those parties;(b) disputes concerning military activities, including military activities by government vessels and aircraft engaged in non-commercial service, and disputes concerning law enforcement activities in regard to the exercise of sovereign rights or jurisdiction excluded from the jurisdiction of a court or tribunal under article 297, paragraph 2 or 3;
A ruling could be issued sometime in the first half of 2016, and it is probable that other states may now join the Philippines in pursuing legal redress. How China will respond to this ruling has yet to be seen.
The Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is a new doctrine in world politics which insists that sovereignty is not merely a right of nation-states, it is also an obligation to protect innocents from war crimes, atrocities, and genocide. In such cases the world community has an obligation to override sovereignty and to protect these innocents. Unfortunately, R2P has not been implemented well. A team of researchers has analyzed the shortcomings of the doctrine and pose some changes necessary to make it more effective.
Reuters is reportingthat the US will be sending a “small” number of special operations forces to Syria. This is the first time that combat troops have been sent to Syria. The troops will be in support of the Syrian Free Army, a small rebel force opposed to both the Assad regime and the Islamic State. The move places the US in opposition to the Russian and Iranian forces which are operating in Syria in support of Assad. Given that Russian planes have been bombing the Syrian Free Army, one can only hope that the US and Russia have been carefully talking about how to avoid confrontation.
China has announced that it is ending its “one-child” policy. The policy was implemented during the early years of the People’s Republic as a way to avoid overpopulation. It has, however, led to several problems. From a public policy point of view, the policy led to a demographic shift which made older Chinese people the dominant age cohort. That shift has led to labor shortages and constant upward pressure on wages. But the policy was never popular among the Chinese people who tended to favor boys over girls. That preference led to female infanticide and corruption as couples bribed officials to permit another child in hopes of getting a male child. On the other hand, the pressure for smaller families is just as intense in China as it is in other wealthier countries.
The Christian Social Union (CSU), one of the parliamentary partners in Angela Merkel’s coalition government, is threatening to leave her cabinet in protest over her handling of the refugee crisis. Such a move would threaten Merkel’s ten-year hold on German politics and expose a growing cleavage in German society. The issue of immigration is fast becoming a highly volatile one in German politics and one that could lead to a change of government.
The US strategy in the Middle East suffers because it is largely incoherent. The US seems to be reacting to events and does not seem to be guided by a vision of what its true goals and interests in the region actually are. Part of this incoherence, however, is due to the fact that US allies in the region are operating at cross-purposes. For example, Turkey seems to think that the Kurds are more of a threat tot Turkey than the Islamic State. And even though Iranian interests and American interests in the region are growing closer, the US seems to be reluctant to embrace that politically inconvenient fact. Until the US makes its own objectives crystal clear, then it is unlikely that its allies will be able to support a sustained or coherent policy.
China continues to forge a different path in economic and political development. Rather than rely exclusively on markets and representative democracy, China develops central plans to guide the overall economy which are then implemented at different levels of government. But the Chinese government makes a concerted effort to elicit public support for the plans and, over time, the government has become even more sophisticated in selling its Five Year Plans. Such as releasing this video to appeal to young people:
Income inequality continues to worsen in the US (and globally). The most recent indicator of income inequality is in retirement incomes. The Center for Effective Government and the Institute for Policy Studies have released a study that shows that the retirement accounts of the top 100 CEOs average about $49.3 million per executive, or a combined $4.9 billion. That amount is equal to the entire retirement accounts of 41 percent of U.S. families — or more than 116 million people. It is highly unlikely that these CEOs really care about whether Social Security remains solvent in the coming years.
In a rather stunning development, Iran has been invited to join the talks about a negotiated settlement in Syria. The move undoubtedly strengthens the position of Syrian President Assad since both Russia and Iran favor his continued rule. It also represents a setback for the US position which favors Assad’s removal. It is probable that the Obama Administration is now moving toward the Russian/Iranian position although it will likely not make that statement. The invitation also elevates Iran’s position in the Middle East which is a setback for Israel and Saudi Arabia. The chessboard pieces are moving quite fast right now.
The sovereign debt crisis in Europe seems to have receded after the recent Greek elections and Greek compliance with the austerity demands of the troika. But appearances can be deceiving. Portugal is also a highly indebted country, and its recent inconclusive elections, in which the center-right party that accepts austerity managed to maintain control of the government even though the anti-austerity left-wing parties garnered 62% of the final vote, will lead to an extended period of stalemate and drift. A heavily indebted country can ill afford a weak government.
Despite a ruling by the International Court of Justice that its whale killings do not constitute scientific research, Japan has indicated that it intends to continue hunting whales in the Antarctic. Scientific research is one of the two exceptions to whale hunting granted by the international community (the other is hunting by indigenous peoples who have traditionally hunted whales for food), but the International Court of Justice found that Japan was not in fact conducting any research at all. In response Japan said that the ICJ’s jurisdiction “does not apply to … any dispute arising out of, concerning, or relating to research on, or conservation, management or exploitation of, living resources of the sea”. Most international legal scholars would disagree.
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