In November 1983 NATO conducted a military exercise, codenamed “Able Archer”, which the Soviet leadership interpreted as a prelude to an American nuclear attack. Americans were told that the exercise was nothing more than that. But in the context of President Reagan’s aggressive Cold War rhetoric, the Soviet Union believed that the exercise was a feint. In 1990, the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board issued a report, which was classified, that indicated how close the world came to a nuclear war. That report has now been made available and it makes for chilling reading. We will see how the American public reacts to this new information, if at all.
Today is a big day for elections. Elections are being held in Argentina, Poland, Tanzania, Guatemala, Haiti and Ivory Coast. Except for Poland, all of these states are somewhat fragile politically, so we;ll have a good test of how deeply democratic sentiments are held across the planet. Argentina will have to choose a new candidate since the current President, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, cannot run again. She and her husband have dominated Argentine politics for many years. Poland will also be closely watched to see if the movement in Europe toward more nationalist, anti-immigrant parties, will be captured by the Law and Justice Party.
We tend to think about poverty in the developed and the developing world as being fundamentally different. In many respects, there are very important differences. There is, however, one aspect of poverty–agricultural poverty–which is remarkably similar in both the rich and the poor worlds. Indeed, in many respects, the poor in rich and poor states have more in common with each other than they do with their national rich counterparts.
Israel and Jordan have apparently agreed to have TV monitoring cameras placed on the Temple Mount/Noble Sanctuary. Tensions over possible changes in the rules governing access to the area have rattled Jerusalem for the last month. Both sides hope that the monitoring cameras will be able to prove to all sides that the rule preventing Jews from praying near the mosques is being enforced and that Muslims will not be restricted any further in their ability to attend the mosques.
Russia indicated its willingness to have elections in Syria which would include the Syrian Free Rebels, the faction supported by the US. It is hard to imagine how accurate elections could be held in the war-torn country, and one cannot shake the suspicion that the proposal is not entirely serious. The Russians have complained that the US is not cooperating with it because the US will not tell Russia the locations of the Syrian Free Rebels. Ostensibly the Russians want the information to avoid bombing the rebels; the US refuses to give Russia the information because Russia has been bombing the Syrian rebels at a higher rate than it has been bombing the Islamic state.
Anti-immigrant sentiment in Germany appears to be growing and it seems to be led by a movement called PEGIDA (Patriots against the Islamization of the West). Members of the group which seems to be centered in the city of Dresden have allegedly made threats against politicians who support welcoming immigrants into the country. The anti-immigrant movement has a blog entitled “Politically Incorrect” which disseminates its anti-immigrant propaganda.
As the media focuses on the Russian activity in Syria, we all would be wiser to focus on the Iranian support for Assad which is far more critical. Dexter Filkins has written an excellent essay on Iran’s strategy for the New Yorker which is definitely worth a read. He focuses on the role of Major General Qassem Suleimani, the leader of the Quds force which is actively supporting Assad’s forces. The fascinating part of the essay is the way he exposes all the possible options for a US-Iranian alliance on a host of issues and how those options have not been acted upon. Perhaps the nuclear agreement with Iran will finally break open the impasse between the two countries. Wikileaks has published a memo from John Brennan the Director of the CIA entitled “The Conundrum of Iran” which reads, in part:
“The gratuitous labeling of Iran as part of a worldwide “axis of evil” by President Bush (date?) combined with strong U.S. criticisms of Iran’s nascent nuclear program and its meddling in Iraq led Tehran to the view that Washington had embarked on a course of confrontation in the region that would soon set a kinetic focus on Iran. Even Iran’s positive engagement in helping repair the post-Taliban political environment in Afghanistan was met with indifference by Washington. According to James Dobbins, the Bush Administration’s first U.S. envoy to Afghanistan, Iranian diplomats made important contributions to the success of U.N. sponsored negotiations that resulted in the inauguration of the Karzai Government in Kabul. But unlike the foreign ministers of other nations involved in those negotiations, Iran’s foreign minister did not receive a personal note of thanks from his U.S. counterpart, despite, according to Dobbins, the fact that he ‘may have been the most helpful.'”
It is truly unfortunate that the US has not been more receptive to the common interests of both countries.
The primary concern of many in the climate change debate has been over the role of carbon dioxide as a major culprit in the process. There is another greenhouse gas, methane, which is a more powerful agent in the process which has not received as much attention because it is not something that is largely emitted in the normal burning of fossil fuels. But methane is trapped in permafrost which is soil that is more or less permanently frozen because of the low temperatures in the polar regions. And there is accumulating evidence that as global temperatures rise, more of the permafrost is melting, releasing tremendous amounts of methane. The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost has been studying the problem of melting permafrost, and, according to one of the researchers, “the recent rate of warming of this frozen layer of earth is ‘unbelievable’.”
One of the under-appreciated elements of power is what IR analysts call “soft power”. Unlike “hard” power like military weaponry or economic heft which is fundamentally coercive, “soft” power refers to a state’s attractiveness to other states in matters primarily of culture. Thus, rock music or Levis were part of America’s soft power in the Cold War: people in other countries liked rock and roll and/or jeans, and thus had a degree of affection for American culture. Perhaps the most dynamic manifestation of American (and Indian) “soft” power is movies. American films often have very large international audiences. But sometimes there are deep cultural problems with some movies, and countries often block the showing of some movies. China apparently does not like references to spiritual matters such as ghosts and Chinese censors have blocked the recent American movie, “Crimson Peak”. In anticipation of such moves, some American producers edit specific scenes in and out of their movies to appeal to international audiences.
Syrian President Assad made a surprise visit to Moscow as Russian President Putin emerges as a power broker in Middle Eastern politics. Russia is flexing both its military and diplomatic muscles in an attempt to preserve Assad’s position. Putin has also been on the telephone with a number of leaders in the Middle East, trying to assuage their apprehensions about a final political settlement in Syria. There is little question that Putin has outmaneuvered the West with this gambit; whether he can make good on his promises remains to be seen. In many respects, Russia has more to fear from the Islamic State than does the West.
At least 14 campuses in South Africa have been closed because of student protests against tuition increases. The protests, however, also signal widespread dissatisfaction with political governance in South Africa as young people express their views on how the government regards them and their future. The students have marched on the South African Parliament, and it is safe to say that the protests represent a significant challenge to the traditional ruling parties in South Africa.
Argentina is holding a national election on Sunday and few in Argentina expect the results to change much in terms of the sluggish economy or the unresponsive politics. President Cristina Fernandez has overseen a steady deterioration of the economy during her terms in office, and the ruling party candidate, Daniel Scioli, does not offer genuinely different policies. Those policies have led to capital flight out of the country, high inflation, and slow growth. His opponent, Mauricio Macri, is trailing in the polls and his policies roughly correspond to traditional neoliberal economic policies.
Canada has just completed its longest and most expensive national election and has shifted from the center-right government of Stephen Harper (who had been Prime Minister for ten years) to a center-left government of Justin Trudeau (the son of a former Prime Minister). The change in policies are likely to be dramatic, the most notable of which is a move toward more stimulating central government fiscal policy. The Liberal Party government is somewhat of an anomaly in a world of governments that are shifting toward the right.
The earth has experienced five previous mass extinction events (that we know of). Researchers are arguing that human-induced changes in the environment are moving us toward a sixth mass extinction event that will unquestionably have catastrophic effects on humanity. According to The Guardian:
The scientists argue then that the changes would be so extreme, and so unlike anything that the Earth has ever seen before, that it could represent a geological shift as big as the rise of microbes on the planet or the rise of multicellular organisms.
Many of the most extreme changes can yet be avoided, but there is little question that some changes have already been set into motion. It is hard to tell how much time the world has to change course.
Many analysts are becoming quite concerned about the development of military robots. With advances in artificial intelligence, it is highly likely that weapons could be roboticized to deal with situations that commanders might believe are too risky for human soldiers. That impulse is certainly admirable, but a real danger exists that the ease of killing without risk to soldiers (as evidenced by the dramatic increase in the use of weaponized drones) might lead to unintended and catastrophic consequences. The time to think about the pitfalls of such innovations is before the weapons are developed. The rapid development of atomic weapons without any thought about the practical effects of the existence of such weapons is a clear example of the technology outpacing our sense of ethical behavior.
One of the problems in the climate change discussion is that we usually only experience changes in weather and not climate. Climate is long-term weather and we usually only recognize day-to day changes well. In addition, we have only been keeping relatively accurate measurements of surface temperatures since the 1880s. But NASA has a video which portrays temperature anomalies since the 1880s which pretty much describes a process of climate change.
Doors are closing throughout southeastern Europe as countries try to stem the flow of refugees. Hungary closed its borders, shunting the refugees into Croatia. But now Slovenia is closing its doors on the refugees coming through Croatia and Croatia is threatening to close its doors. And further down the line of countries, both Macedonia and Serbia are talking about not taking in any more refugees. Which means that the refugees will be stuck in Turkey and Greece. And winter is definitely coming.
Three universities in South Africa have shut down after student protests made it impossible for them to hold classes. The students were protesting a 10% increase in fees which they say undermine attempts to diversify the once all-white universities. The universities, like virtually all universities in the world, are suffering from reductions in state monies. The students in South Africa believe that the state has an obligation to make higher education accessible.
Iran has begun implementing the nuclear agreement: it has invited the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its facilities with no restrictions and has begun to dismantle many of its centrifuges. The sanctions on Iran are also schedule to be lifted in phases and Iran is getting ready to re-enter the world petroleum market. The global market for oil is still depressed and Suadi Arabia shows no sign of restricting its production. So Iran will be able to sell its oil but at a reduced price. Nonetheless, Iran is willing to sell as much oil as the market can handle.
Efforts to dissuade Russia from taking actions that jeopardize international stability, such as the Russian intervention in Ukraine, have not been particularly successful. One of the reasons why they have failed is that Russia has managed to insinuate its economic strengths deep into the process of globalization. From Russian oil and natural gas sales to Europe, to Russian citizens buying property in London, and to extensive cyberhacking into large corporations, Russia has made the costs of disapproval quite high. If the West wishes to limit Russian influence in other areas of the world, it needs to address the extensive financial Russian networks first.
The Swiss People’s Party (SVP), a staunchly anti-immigrant party, is poised to take up to a third of the seats in the lower house of the Swiss Parliament. The strength of the SVP was not expected and the gains of the party will shift Swiss politics from center-left to center-right. Switzerland has not really been affected by the refugee crisis yet, but apparently the Swiss voters take the issue very seriously.
The Navy Times has published an essay which succinctly lays out the US position as it is apparently sending naval vessels within the 12-mile limit of reefs that China claims are islands within the South China Sea. Xinhua has published an editorial which attempts to refute the US position. The Xinhua essay mentions the Cuban Missile Crisis as an analogy to the current situation. While the Cuban missile crisis may be a good example of US arrogance, it is not really a relevant analog since the US was never claiming that Cuba was within US territorial waters.
There is a movement in Germany called the Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the Occident (Pegida) which has been quiescent for the last few months but which has been revived by the movement of refugees into the country. The movement is virulently anti-Islam and has been implicated in many acts of arson against refugee camps. It is also mobilizing political sentiment against Chancellor Merkel which is making handling the refugee issue more difficult. A candidate for mayor of Cologne was stabbed in the neck by an anti-refugee individual.
Egypt has begun the process of electing a new Parliament which will likely conclude in December. Both Houses of the Parliament have been suspended by the former General Abdel Fattah el-Sissi who overthrew the elected President Mohammed Morsi in 2013. The political process is carefully controlled and the political repression in Egypt is as great as it was under the rule of the former dictator Mubarak who was overthrown in the Arab Spring protests of 2011. The prospects for the return of democracy do not seem to be great.
The China Times is an official news outlet for the Chinese Communist Party and it has published an editorial that suggests that China intends to react to any US naval provocations in the South China Sea. China has built up reefs and built military capable facilities on those reefs. It claims the built up reefs as part of its national territory. The UN Conference on the Law of the Sea, however, does not recognize reefs as part of national territory. The US has announced that it intends to send naval vessels within a 12-mile limit (the traditional boundary of national terriroty as defined in maritime terms) of those reefs. According to international law, the US has the right of innocent passage. According to the Chinese:
“If the US encroaches on China’s core interests, the Chinese military will stand up and use force to stop it.”
We will have to see if a confrontation occurs.
Manohar Lal Khattar, chief minister of the northern state of Haryana in India, has urged all Muslims in the country to give up eating beef out of respect for the sentiments of Hindus. Khattar belongs to the ruling party of Narendra Modi and his call came after a mob lynched a Muslim man because of a rumor that he had eaten beef. In a newspaper interview Khattar was quoted saying:
“They can be Muslim even after they stop eating beef, can’t they? It is written nowhere that Muslims have to eat beef, nor is it written anywhere in Christianity that they have to eat beef.”
The comments are likely to inflame tensions between Muslims and Hindus in India.
The Russian offensive in Syria has raised many questions about Russia’s ultimate intentions. The key question is whether Russia’s objectives are limited to those confined to Syria itself, or whether the objectives represent a gambit with much more global scope. At this time we don’t have enough information to answer this question, but the German newspaper Spiegel raises some perspectives that can help narrow the possiblities.
The US has admitted that it knew about the location of a hospital run by Doctors Without Borders in Afghanistan days before it bombed the hospital. US President Obama has apologized for the attack, but the new evidence suggests that the humanitarian violation was far more serious than has been admitted thus far. The US explanation for the bombing has changed on almost a daily basis and it is very difficult to figure out exactly why this attack was carried out.
Forest fires in Indonesia have released almost 995 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions so far this year. The smoke from the fires, many of which are deliberately set to make way for palm plantations, are visible from space and have caused serious respiratory problems in neighboring countries. The fire problem will likely only worsen as this year’s el Niño make drought conditions in Indonesia more probable.
As global economic growth continues to decline, the difficulties of some countries in repaying their debts will increase. Since the global credit crisis of 2008, global debt levels have actually increased to about $200 trillion (up $57 trillion since 2008). The debt levels do not seem acute right now since interest rates on the debt are effectively at zero percent. But if interest rates return to more normal levels, the debt burdens will probably be unsustainable for many countries. We should be prepared for another credit crisis at some point in the future.
World Politics News 