After 16 years of socialist rule under Presidents Chavez and Maduro, Venezuela overwhelmingly voted for opposition parties giving them total control of the country’s parliament. Voter participation was very high at nearly 75% indicating that the election reflects a rather deep and wide sentiment. The outcome means that Venezuela will be faced with a difficult transition as high rates of inflation have to come down and the government will have to reduce much of its spending. Where the government cuts will determine which sectors of the population will suffer the most.
For the first time in many years, CO2 emissions globally declined slightly from the previous year. The decline likely stems from an economic slowdown in China as well as concerted efforts within China to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The news is certainly good, but the future really depends on the use of coal which has been staging somewhat of a comeback as its price has declined considerably. India appears to be increasing its use of coal significantly and even in countries such as Germany which has made a sustained effort to boost solar and wind power, the use of coal has been creeping back up. Interestingly, ExxonMobil has released its own report on the future. Its own research indicates that “without government action” temperatures by the end of the century may rise between 7 and 12 degrees Fahrenheit.
Unfortunately, for the first time ever, China has released its first “red alert” for smog levels in Beijing signalling profoundly unhealthy air for the next three days.
“The wealthiest 20 individuals in the United States today hold more wealth than the bottom half of the U.S. population combined. These 20 super wealthy — a group small enough to fly together on one Gulfstream G650 private jet — have as much wealth as the 152 million people who live in the 57 million households that make up the bottom half of the U.S. population.”
The researchers point out that the increasing inequality of the American population is the consequence of deliberate political choice: the tax laws and their loopholes inordinately favor those who possess highly mobile capital and disenfranchise those who rely almost exclusively on income derived from labor.
Forbes Top 20 Rank
Name Wealth ($bill) Source of Wealth Residence
1 Bill Gates 76 Microsoft Medina, WA
2 Warren Buffett 62 Berkshire Hathaway Omaha, NE
3 Larry Ellison 47.5 Oracle Woodside, CA
4 Jeff Bezos 47 Amazon Seattle, WA
5 Charles Koch 41 Koch Industries Wichita, KS
6 David Koch 41 Koch Industries New York, NY
7 Mark Zuckerberg 40.3 Facebook Palo Alto, CA
8 Michael Bloomberg 38.6 Bloomberg LP New York, NY
9 Jim Walton 33.7 Wal-Mart heir Bentonville, AR
10 Larry Page 33.3 Google Palo Alto, CA
11 Sergey Brin 32.6 Google Los Altos, CA
12 Alice Walton 32 Wal-Mart heir Fort Worth, TX
13 S. Robson Walton 31.7 Wal-Mart heir Bentonville, AR
14 Christy Walton 30.2 Wal-Mart heir Jackson, WY
15 Sheldon Adelson 26 Sands Casino Las Vegas, NV
16 George Soros 24.5 Hedge funds Katonah, NY
17 Phil Knight 24.4 Nike Hillsboro, OR
18 Forrest Mars, Jr 23.4 Mars Candy heir Big Horn, WY
18 Jacqueline Mars 23.4 Mars Candy heir The Plains, VA
18 John Mars 23.4 Mars Candy heir Jackson, WY
Top 20 Combined: $732 Billion Source: Forbes, September 29, 2015.
Turkey has detained Russian vessels trying to navigate the Bosporus as Russia and Turkey continue to escalate their diplomatic spat. The naval violations detected by Turkish authorities do not seem to be especially egregious:
There are a number of Russian military vessels in the area as both sides continue to brandish their swords.
The right-wing National Front party in France, led by Marine Le Pen, has scored significant victories in French regional elections. President Hollande’s Socialist Party appears to have come in a distant third in the polling spelling significant ruling problems for France in the near future. Many interpret the vote for the National Front as an explicit rejection of the traditional ruling parties, an interpretation which is also reflected in the polling trends in the US as well.
Iraq has protested the presence of Turkish troops on Iraqi territory near the city of Mosul. Turkish troops have frequently entered Iraqi territory in the past in pursuit of Kurdish forces, but this time the intent seems to be different even though Turkish forces have in fact been bombing Kurdish positions in northern Iraq. According to the Turkish newspaper, Hürriyet:
“The deal regarding the base was signed between Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani and Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioğlu, during the latter’s visit to northern Iraq on Nov. 4.”
The idea that Turkey is training Kurdish forces in Iraq is difficult to understand: Turkey has made it very clear that it fears Kurdish demands for an independent state. Why would it train Kurdish fighters?
Not surprisingly, Turkey has firmly denied the charges, and the US has indicated its full faith in its NATO partner, Turkey. But the charge is a mind-boggling case of realpolitik: Turkey bombs some Kurds, but works with other Kurds, and gives money to Daesh while at the same time bombing them. Unfortunately, since the charges come from Russia few in the Western press are taking the accusations seriously. They deserve to be investigated fully.
The Indian city of Chennai has been hit by devastating floods with rainfalls of as much as 14 inches in 24 hours. Almost 270 have been killed, thousands have been displaced, and the city has been paralyzed. Some meteorologists believe that this year’s extraordinary el Niño is responsible for the excessive rainfall, but Chennai, the 4th largest city in India, has also made questionable planning decisions concerning runoff. But if climate change is involved, then the flooding may only be a harbinger of things to come.
Recent polls indicate that the opposition parties are set to win majorities in the elections scheduled for Venezuela this weekend. The economy is experiencing dramatic shortages of essential products and very high rates of inflation as the declining price of oil has forced the government to print money that is not backed by any tangible assets. The current President, Nicolás Maduro, took over after the death of Hugo Chavez and has promised to sustain the “Bolivarian Revolution” initiated by Chavez. Ominously, Maduro has stated that he would “not hand over the revolution” if the ruling party loses the election.
Paul Krugman has written a review of Robert Reich’s new book, Saving Capitalism for the New York Review of Books. The review is an elegant summary of the competing theories behind the dramatic increase in income inequality in the US since the 1970s. Reich’s argument is that
“….widening inequality largely reflects political decisions that could have gone in very different directions. The rise in market power reflects a turn away from antitrust laws that looks less and less justified by outcomes, and in some cases the rise in market power is the result of the raw exercise of political clout to prevent policies that would limit monopolies.”
In other words, concentrated economic power has been translated into political power to favor capital at the expense of labor. The essay is definitely worth a close read.
One of the background issues in the Syrian civil war is the proposed natural gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey. Qatar has been pushing for this pipeline for many years but has been stymied by the refusal of Syrian President Assad to allow the pipeline to be built across Syria. The Turks obviously favor the pipeline because it would allow Turkey to collect transit fees which would be a considerable source of revenue. The Russians oppose the pipeline because it would bring alternative natural gas supplies to Europe that would undercut Russian control of the European energy market.
The major power that has remained somewhat aloof from the conflict in the Middle East is China and it is difficult to figure out eaxctly what China’s interests are in the long run. Clearly, China cannot remain indifferent to the disposition of petroleum and natural gas, its most important imports. But beyond those concrete interests, how does the conflict fit into the Chinese world view? A Chinese blogger, Yang Hengjun, places China’s perspective in the context of the “Clash of Civilizations” thesis developed by Professor Samuel Huntington several years ago. I do not personally subscribe to the thesis, but it offers an interesting insight into Chinese values.
The lower house of the Brazilian Congress has initiated impeachment proceedings against the president, Dilma Rousseff. The proceedings will add a great deal of uncertainty to a country that is already reeling from an economic downturn and corruption scandals.
NATO has decided to invite Montenegro to join the alliance. The military alliance, created in 1949 in response to the growing Cold War, has expanded its membership since that time as the Soviet alliance (the Warsaw Pact)) disintegrated and the Soviet Union itself disappeared. NATO expansion has always been a sore point with the Russians which believes that NATO still exists to constrain the power of Russia. The move to invite Montenegro has rankled the Russians and it is not at all clear why NATO chose to make this decision in a time of very strained Western-Russian relations.
President U Thein Sein of Myanmar promised a smooth transition of power after the recent elections. The National League for Democracy party, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, won nearly 80 percent of the seats in the national election, ending a long period of military rule (1962-2010). Suu Kyi is constitutionally prohibited from becoming President (the military insisted that the constitution bar anyone with a foreign spouse from that post), but it is widely acknowledged that she will be setting the agenda for the country. The issues confronting Myanmar are quite serious and the top of that list is the growing hostility toward Muslims in the country.
John Cassidy of The New Yorker has written an interesting essay on the climate talks in Paris. He is optimistic that an agreement will be reached during the two-week conference; he is not optimistic that the agreement will really tackle the problem of climate change. The conference will not produce a treaty–neither the Americans or the Chinese are interested in a treaty. The US fears a treaty because it would unquestionably be defeated in the US Senate. The Chinese fear a treaty because they do not wish to give up any control over their economy. The problematic country in the mix is India which believes that the treaty must address the economic inequities implicit in carbon controls over poor countries at this time. In an op-ed for the Financial Times, Indian Prime minister Modi wrote:
Justice demands that, with what little carbon we can still safely burn, developing countries are allowed to grow. The lifestyles of a few must not crowd out opportunities for the many still on the first steps of the development ladder.
The Pew Research Center has conducted a poll in 38 countries on attitudes toward freedom of speech and freedom of the press. The results suggest broad support for those freedoms, but the regional differences in support are important to notice. The poll also asked questions about freedom of religion and gender equality which reflect wider diversity across the 38 countries. The poll reveals the extent to which liberal values underpin much of global civic society.
Germany has decided to send 1,200 troops to join the fight against Daesh (ISIS). The troops will be in a supporting and advisory role, but by simply sending troops abroad, Germany has made a bold statement. Since the end of World War II, Germany has been especially sensitive to any move that would suggest a rebirth of German militarism. Additionally, Germany has one of the largest Muslim populations in all of Europe and runs the risk of alienating that segment of its population by joining a fight against Muslim fighters.
Brazil’s economy shrank by 1.7% in the third quarter of 2015, a decline significantly larger than the predicted 1.2% decline. The data confirms that Brazil–which has the largest economy in Latin America–is in a full-fledged recession, spelling trouble for the entire region. Additionally, the economic decline spells further trouble for President Rousseff who has been undermined by corruption scandals surrounding some of her closest aides.
Russia has supplied its bombers in Syria with state-of-the-art air-to-air missiles. The arming comes after Turkey shot down a Russian bomber it said had violated Turkish territory. The move is a legitimate act of self-defense for the Russian pilots, but it makes the air space above Syria significantly more dangerous. In combination with Russia’s best anti-aircraft missile system, the S-400, the Russians now have tight control over Syria. The risk is that this control could also extend to objectives other than tracking down Daesh (ISIS), including activities conducted by Hezbollah in Syria against Israel.
The attacks on Paris and Beirut tend to be viewed in the context of the “global war on terror” which began for the West in 2001. But that perspective ignores the long history of interaction between Western and non-Western peoples. In particular, the Algerian war of independence in the 1950s and 1960s set the stage for how the French respond to acts of terror and why they became the objects of terror. One cannot divorce the history of imperialism from current events–indeed, an appreciation of that history is the only way to understand a way forward.
The Chinese yuan has become the fifth currency to be used to calculate the Special Drawing Rights of the IMF–the other currencies being the US dollar, the Japanese yen, sterling and the euro. The move signals the growing acceptance of the Chinese currency in international transactions and is a significant political victory for China. The move, however, also places a great deal of pressure on China not to manipulate its currency to stimulate its exports so it comes with significant economic costs to China.
There have been repeated stabbings and cars ramming into civilians in the Occupied West Bank over the last few months. The violence remains at a relatively low, but steady, level. Some analysts believe that this stretch of violence represents the third intifada (uprising) in Israeli-Palestinian relations (the first two were in 1987 and 2000). Other analysts believe that the conflict remains manageable. Whether it qualifies as a full-fledged uprising is beside the point. The essential point is that the tension in the Palestinian population is palpable and has no where to go. The Palestinians do not trust their own leadership (President Abbas has unilaterally extended his term of office since 2009 without authority), the Israelis, or the US.
There have been marches and protests all across the globe today in support of the COP-21 climate talks which start in Paris. Marchers in France were banned from assembling because of security concerns, but they used great creativity and left 10,000 pairs of shoes at the Place de la Republique instead. We already have commitments by some countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. According to The Guardian:
The EU will cut its emissions by 40%, compared with 1990 levels, by 2030. The US will cut its emissions by 26% to 28%, compared with 2005 levels, by 2025. China will agree that its emissions will peak by 2030.
Nations responsible for more than 90% of global emissions have now come up with their targets – known in the UN jargon as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs .
Unfortunately, with these commitments, the world still falls short of its goal: “Analysis of the INDCS, endorsed by the UN, has suggested that these pledges are enough to hold the world to about 2.7C or 3C of warming.”
Niall Ferguson, a commentator with whom I mostly disagree, has written a biography of Henry Kissinger, a statesperson whose policies I abhorred. Interestingly, however, the theme of the biography is something with which I agree: that the study of history is indispensable to good diplomacy. Apparently, we all agree with Thucydides: “The present, while never repeating the past exactly, must inevitably resemble it. Hence, so must the future.”
Juan Cole is one of the most experienced and insightful analysts of Middle Eastern events, and he has authored an essay for the Nation which urges us to rethink the way we think about the Islamic State (which he prefers to call by its Arabic name, Daesh). His analysis is compelling: the metaphor of war is inappropriate for actions against the group. Treating the Islamic State as a “state” legitimizes the group in the eyes of its followers and potential adherents.
One of the mysteries of the power of the Islamic State is how it gets so much money. We know that it is selling oil, but it has never been clear how it transports the oil out of Syria and Iraq, who sells the oil, and who buys the oil. El Araby, a newspaper out of Qatar, has tracked down these questions and the answers explain a great deal. It appears as if much of the oil is sold to Kurds (a purported ally of the US), shipped and refined through Turkey (another purported ally of the US), and much of it is sold to Israel (another purported ally of the US–the Islamic State oil accounts for as much as 75% of Israel’s oil consumption). In other words, American allies are helping to subsidize the Islamic State to the tune of about $50 million a month. Interestingly, one of the people who figures prominently in this web is Bilal Erdogan, the son of the Turkish Prime Minister, the country that opposes both the Kurds and the Islamic State.
India has maintained a blockade of Nepal since last September. The immediate cause of the blockade is the Indian displeasure with the new Nepalese constitution after almost ten years of living under an interim constitution. India’s concern is that the constitution does not accord full rights to the Nepalese Madheshis who live right on the Indian border. But the blockade almost represents an effort by India to exercise greater control over Nepalese affairs which it regards as necessary to prevent Chinese influence in Nepal. The blockade is causing a serious humanitarian crisis to the landlocked country since virtually all trade to and from Nepal flows through the border.
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