These last few months have seen an outpouring of new studies on ice melt caused by climate change. In short, much of the new evidence suggests that rising sea levels are going to be much more extreme than we have assumed in the past, largely becuase of significant underestimates of ice melts on land masses such as Greenland and Antarctica (as opposed to sea ice which, even if it does melt won’t raise sea levels by much. Climate Central has published some interactive maps on how sea rises of 2 feet compare with sea rises of 6 feet on some major American cities. If you are familiar with either Boston or Miami, these maps will look familiar. Boston
Turkish President Erdogan is in Washington, DC and it has become clear that US-Turkish relations are not very good. Turkey and Washington disagree on the priorities of enemies and friends. Turkey has decided that Syrian President Assad and the Kurds are less serious enemies than Daesh (the Islamic State). The US regards the Kurds as allies and Assad as a less serious enemy and Daesh as the most serious enemy. Washington also disagrees with Erdogan’s stance toward human rights and its position toward the treatment of Syrian refugees. It is unlikely that the TUrkish-American rift can be healed as long as either Obama or Erdogan remain in office.
The US is beefing up its forces in NATO to signal an increased capability to respond to Russian military moves in Eastern Europe. The US is going to position three combat brigades in Europe along the Russian border, a force of about 4,200 soldiers in addition to the already stationed 62,000 American soldiers in Europe. The move caps off several earlier ones designed to bolster the American presence in Europe in response to Russian moves in Ukraine that are considered quite provocative. The earlier moves were matched by Russia is a clear demonstration of the dynamics of the Security Dilemma. We will see if these additional moves trigger off additional Russian moves.
The fourth Nuclear Security Summit is currently going on in Washington, DC. The conference is dedicated toward enhancing the security of both military and civilian nuclear processes in order to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. This year’s conference is marred by the absence of Russia which has refused to participate because of differences over its behavior in Ukraine. It is unlikely that any major decisions will be made at this year’s summit, but ongoing discussions about security of nuclear materials is absolutely essential to future security.
In many of the previous models of climate change, the issue of ice melt in Antarctica has not been a major concern. Ice melting at the poles has not been well-understood, but two UMass researchers have developed a model of ice melt in Antarctica which more closely mathces the historical records of previous periods of global warming. The new model indicates that ice melt is proceeding in a faster manner than has been so far measured, and that the previous models have underestimated the level of sea level rise by about half because of that error. The new research indicates that many coastal cities could be in serious trouble by the end of this century.
Hungarian President Viktor Orban has used inflammatory rhetoric to justify his government’s refusal to go along with the European Union’s refugee proposals. Orban was campaigning in favor of a referendum to be held in Hungary this coming fall that asks the following question: “Do you want the EU to prescribe the mandatory relocation of non-Hungarian citizens to Hungary without the approval of the Hungarian parliament?” Orban claimed that there were 900 “no-go” zones in European cities, where the zones are defined as beyond the control of the central government because of the influx of refugees. The whole notion of “no-go” zones is bogus: there are, and have always been, areas of every city which are more or less dangerous than others. That degree of danger is not remotely related to the number of refugees.
According to a new Reuters/IPSOS Poll, about 63% of the American population believes that torture is “often or sometimes” justified. Given the reaction to recent events, this number is not surprising, but it still remains depressing. People need to think more carefully about what constitutes torture and whether it is at all effective in obtaining information. Most evidence suggests that it is not. But what is unquestionable is that torture degrades the torturer, and destroys the integrity of the country that sanctions it.
Analysts have a difficult time understanding the motivations of those who resort to terror, and an even more difficult time trying to determine the dynamics of a group that espouses the use of terror. S. Alexander Haslam and Stephen D. Reicher have conducted some interesting research on the dynamics of a terrorist organization using some of the insights provided by the Milgram and Zimbardo experiments. Their analysis is provocative and highly enlightening.
The newspaper that is the authoritative voice of the government of North Korea, Rodong Sinmun. ran an editorial that warned the North Korean people that “We may have to go on an arduous march, a time when we will again have to eat the roots of grass.” The government appears to be anticipating very difficult economic times as the new sanctions against the government cut off key sources of export money to the government. The phrasing of the editorial refers to earlier hard times under Kim’s grandfather and father. The people of North Korea deserve far better than what they have received.
The amount of the Arctic covered by sea ice last winter was the lowest ever recorded (to be fair, records only date back 37 years). The average sea ice coverage from 1981-2010 was about 6 million square miles; last winter it was about 5.6 million square miles. While it is clear that the Arctic is changing, what is not clear is what effect those changes might have on the planet as a whole. There are genuine uncertainties about what a warmer Arctic might mean for the rest of us, although it is a disaster for those who live in the Arctic year round, like polar bears.
The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) has pulled out of the ruling coalition in the Brazilian Congress. The move makes it more likely that President Dilma Rousseff might be impeached as her Congressional support weakens. Although she has yet to be directly linked to the corruption that seems to be pervasive within the Brazilian government, it seems clear that she is suffering from the bad behavior of her colleagues. The PMDB departure leaves the Brazilian government in disarray, not a good situation for the world’s seventh largest economy.
Political violence in Burundi has continued unabated since the election last July of President Nkurunziza to an unconstitutional third term. Despite the intervention of the African Union and the United Nations, as well as many non-governmental organizations, the government continues to hunt down those who oppose Nkurunziza. Civil strife is, unfortunately, not a stranger to Burundi and there are legitimate fears that another civil war could be brewing. This time, however, the attention of the world is focused on refugees from other areas of the world, and the situation in Burundi has not gotten much attention at all.
The state of Maharashtra in India has decided to enforce a total ban on the sale of cattle for consumption. Cows are sacred in the Hindu religion but bans on their slaughter were rarely enforced until the election of Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP emphasizes the Hindu national character of India and has elevated Hindu tradition into law. The ban on slaughtering cows has had a serious effect on the livelihoods of many in India, the world’s largest exporter of beef. The ban is also profoundly discriminatory against non-Hindus in India.
Russia plans to build a naval base on one of the Kurile Islands. Those islands were “awarded” to the Soviet Union as part of the settlement of World War II but Japan has never officially recognized Russian sovereignty over the islands. The dispute has prevented the two countries from ever signing a formal peace treaty to end World War II. The Russian move comes at a time when Japan is moving to expand its military capabilities beyond the purely defensive posture imposed on it by the terms of the American-written Constitution.
The ability of terrorist attacks to manipulate public opinion is undeniable. But the threat of terrorism has an effect which is disproportionate to the likelihood of it occurring; there are many other threats which are far more likely and deadly that the public tends to discount. Jeremy Shapiro has an interesting article on how terrorism is able to achieve its ends.
Police broke up a demonstration comprised of right-wing agitators at the Place de la Bourse in Brussels. There have been ongoing solidarity demonstrations at that location to show sympathy for those killed and injured in the recent terror attacks. But the right-wing agitators were demonstrating against Muslims and immigrants, and police had to break up the demonstrations before violence got out of control The agitators made no secret of their contempt for liberal society.
Many Mexicans celebrate Easter by burning effigies of evil people on the Saturday before Easter Sunday. This year, apparently, effigies of Donald Trump were in high demand to be burned. Trump has not endeared himself to the Mexican population with his campaign rhetoric, and the Mexicans were delighted at the opportunity to return the scorn. US Secretary of State expressed his point of view that the current Republican primary elections were an “embarrassment” to the United States.
A Pakistani Taliban faction, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, claimed responsibility for a bomb blast that targeted Christians in Pakistan. The bombing occurred in a park outside the city of Lahore and killed 65 people and wounded over 300. The Pakistani government, led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, has been less than effective in addressing the power of extremist groups in Pakistan and the attack in Lahore is a direct challenge to his government.
The most recent edition of The Economist focuses on an issue that has received little attention in the current debate about income inequality in the US: the lack of competition among firms in the US. According to the article:
“But one problem with American capitalism has been overlooked: a corrosive lack of competition. The naughty secret of American firms is that life at home is much easier: their returns on equity are 40% higher in the United States than they are abroad. Aggregate domestic profits are at near-record levels relative to GDP. America is meant to be a temple of free enterprise. It isn’t.”
The facts do not correlate with the rhetoric about the “free” market in the US. Power in being increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of corporations. Again, from the article:
” Our analysis of census data suggests that two-thirds of the economy’s 900-odd industries have become more concentrated since 1997. A tenth of the economy is at the mercy of a handful of firms—from dog food and batteries to airlines, telecoms and credit cards.”
Perhaps it is time to dust-off the anti-trust laws.
Turkish journalists who published an article accusing the Turkish government of secretly funneling arms to the Syrian government are being prosecuted for violating national security. The trial is being conducted behind closed doors, and many are outraged at the violations of human rights in Turkey. President Erdogan chastised the foreign envoys sitting outside the courtroom, telling them that “…this is not your country, this is Turkey”.
China has detained over 20 people who signed a letter asking that Chinese President Xi Jinping resign from his leadership position. The letter was posted on the blogsite Wujie News. The letter has been taken down but a cached version can be accessed here (the original is in Chinese but Google can translate it for non-Chinese speaking people). The letter is a fairly broad-based critique of Xi’s leadership, but it seems as if the biggest concern is the way Xi has concentrated power in his own hands.
US Defense Secretary, Ashton Carter, asserted today that US military forces had killed Abdul-Rahman Mustafa Mohammed, the finance minister for Daesh (the Islamic State), in Syria. Interestingly, Carter did not say that Mohammed was killed in an airstrike, leading many to speculate that he was killed on the ground by US Special Operations forces. In the same press conference, Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicated that an increase in American ground forces was likely to be requested soon. Obviously there is a build-up of American ground troops in Iraq which has not yet been fully acknowledged.
Saudi Arabia began its bombing campaign against Yemen on 26 March 2015. In the following year, millions of Yemenis have been displaced and thousands have been killed. There are virtually no international efforts ongoing to restrain the Saudis and it is not clear what objectives will satisfy the definition of “success” for the Saudis. It will take many,, many years for Yemen to be fully restored to its pre-war conditions.
One hundred years ago, Irish nationalists rose up in protest against British rule. In the six days of riots, known as the Easter Uprising, almost 500 Irish were killed by British troops. The uprising signaled the beginning of the end for British rule in Ireland, a devolution that is still ongoing.
Radovan Karadzic, the leader of the “Serb Republic” in Bosnia during the conflict following the dissolution of Yugoslavia in 1991, has been found guilty of war crimes during that conflict. In particular, he was to be responsible for the murder of about 8,000 Muslim men and boys in the town of Srebrenica. It took the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague a very long time to bring Karadzic to justice, but the conviction is a large step toward establishing the precedent of holding leaders responsible for crimes committed during war.
North Korea continues to disregard the sanctions placed on it for its nuclear program. It announced the successful test of a solid fuel missile. Solid fueled missiles are less accurate than liquid fueled missiles, but have the distinct advantage of being ready at a moment’s notice (liquid-fueled missiles need to be fueled up before they can be launched giving opponents the ability to prepare themselves for an attack). At the same time, North Korea announced that it was ready to test its fifth nuclear weapon. The sanctions appear to have had little effect on North Korean behavior.
As the global economy sputters along with no real sense of direction, concern is rising about how long political systems can handle the extended slowdown. Economic stress makes demands on political institutions that are difficult to manage because those demands usually involve some actions that almost inevitably disadvantage some constituencies. The internal competition for resources among the different constituencies fragments a polity and makes compromise difficult.
For those who want to better appreciate the dynamism of history, there is a wonderful time map of European history from 1000 CE to 2000 CE. As you watch the video, become aware of how many places once existed which are now long forgotten (I bet the Great Lithuanian Empire was not part of your history lessons). And for those who think that the nation-state is something permanent and static, watch how the boundaries of many familiar places change rapidly and beyond recognition.
Analysts are at a loss to come up with compelling explanations for why Donald Trump has proven to be so attractive for so long to such a large number of American voters. Bloomberg has a series of charts which explain why voters are so angry in virtually every part of the globe. The charts illustrate the way the majority of people in the world have been losing economic ground and how that dynamic has led to increased political polarization.
James Hansen, the former NASA scientist who first raised the issue of climate change, has, along with others, released a new paper which has generated incredible controversy. The new paper suggests that climate change is happening much more rapidly than the climate models predict, and that the world is facing dramatic changes within a framework of decades. The new paper focuses on feedback loops caused by the release of fresh water into the oceans brought about by the melting of glaciers and ice packs. These feedback loops are linked to more rapid changes in air and water circulation on the planet than have been anticipated. If these feedback loops are as robust as Hansen and his colleagues believe, then rising oceans will be a much more immediate issue for the planet than has been assumed.
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