North Korea has tested a missile launch from a submarine. It is not clear if the test was completely successful, but the launch suggests that North Korea is developing greater strategic capabilities. Submarine launched missiles would give North Korea greater flexibility is an attack, but it seems as if the North Korean capability is still quite underdeveloped. There are concerns, however, that North Korea is getting close to testing a fifth nuclear explosion which would be in violation of UN sanctions. The test will inevitably bring China closer to the Western allies opposed to North Korean nuclear capabilities.
Daesh (the Islamic States) has claimed responsibility for the murder of a professor in Bangladesh. Rezaul Karim Siddique was killed on his way to his class at Rajshahi University and is the fourth professor to be killed in the last 12 years. Daesh said that Siddique was killed because he was an “atheist” although there is no evidence to substantiate that characterization. Bangladesh is officially a secular country, but radicals professing adherence to Islam have launched a string of murders against what they regard as enemies of Islam.
Anti-trade sentiment is not simply being expressed by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Thousands in Germany have protested against the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) deal that is being forged between the US and Europe. The BBC has a great summary of the details of the TTIP. The protesters believe that the TTIP will lower wages and weaken labor and environmental protection laws.
The Iran-allied Houthi movement and the Saudi-backed government of Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi have met in Juwait to discuss a possible settlement in the ongoing war in Yemen, The meeting broke down without the sides even agreeing on an agenda to discuss. The violence began in September 2014 and more than 6,000 people have died in the conflict so far. The outcome is disappointing, but there has been a fragile cease-fire in place and at least the sides have agreed to talk. But there is clearly a long way to go.
Fred Kaplan has written an insightful piece for Slate that reviews the steps the Obama Administration has taken in Iraq to fight Daesh (the Islamic State). He raises the central issue about which many analysts have raised concern: the possibility of “mission creep” into a larger war. Kaplan does a good job of pointing out how American forces have learned important lessons about fighting in Iraq and suggests that perhaps Obama has taken steps to avoid a larger war. But President Obama leaves office in less than a year and who knows who the next US President will be.
170 nation-states will likely sign the climate change agreement that was forged in Paris last year and with luck the agreement will be ratified by the end of 2016. The agreement is significant only because it signals (finally) that the major polluters have recognized their responsibilities in changing their behaviors. The agreement itself does not contain mechanisms to avert climate change in any signficiant way.
The nation-state is a poor agent to address the issue of climate change. It is so deeply rooted in the concept of territoriality that it is more likely to impede attempts to solve the problem than it is to contribute to a solution. In order to prevent the catastrophic effects of climate change, the whole concept of sovereignty needs to be re-imagined.
Ever since the contested election of President Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi a few months ago, there has been a steady level of violence in the country. The election was contested because Nkurunziza sought a third term in office, something prohibited by the constitution. Nkurunziza is a Hutu and the violence between that ethnic group and the minority Tutsi in central Africa has been endemic for many years, the most explosive episode being the genocide in Rwanda in 1994. The rising tension is causing concern that the violence may once again explode.
Globalization and free trade are the underlying issues in this year’s presidential campaign in the US. The critiques of how trade policies have affected the American middle class have been launched from both the right and the left. What was once a given issue in the American hegemony is now being contested within the hegemon. Whatever the outcome in the US election, the debate will resonate strongly for many years to come.
The US Geological Service has published a group of stunning satellite images of the earth. Many are false images that highlight specific features of the landscape. Run it as a slideshow–the effect is mesmerizing.
Great Sandy Desert, Western Australia
One of the troubling aspects of this years presidential primaries is the extent to which the American middle class is showing great anger and insecurity. We worry about those emotions in politics since they are usually rooted in economic circumstances that are not quickly or easily resolved. The economic security of the American middle class has deteriorated over the last 40 years in ways that were completely unanticipated. According to Neal Gabler in the most recent issue of The Atlantic:
Median net worth has declined steeply in the past generation—down 85.3 percent from 1983 to 2013 for the bottom income quintile, down 63.5 percent for the second-lowest quintile, and down 25.8 percent for the third, or middle, quintile. According to research funded by the Russell Sage Foundation, the inflation-adjusted net worth of the typical household, one at the median point of wealth distribution, was $87,992 in 2003. By 2013, it had declined to $54,500, a 38 percent drop.
Under these circumstances, one can only expect politics to be highly volatile.
The lower house of the Brazilian Congress has voted overwhelmingly to impeach President Dilma Rousseff. The vote to impeach was more lop-sided than expected, and the bill to impeach now moves to the Brazilian Senate. The vote reflects widespread disillusion with the state of the Brazilian economy (which is expected to decline by 3.8% this year, a similar decline to last year), charges of widespread corruption, including charges against the very politicians who voted to impeach Rousseff, and a sense that Rousseff is incapable of addressing the problems facing Brazil. It seems likely that the Senate will vote to conduct an impeachment trial which means that Brazil will be in a state of limbo for some time.
Last week, research was published reporting a consensus among 97% of all climate scientists that climate change is occurring and that it is caused by human activity. The report can be accessed here but I will not ask any questions on the quiz about the report itself since it is quite technical. This report sounds like old news, and in many respects it is. But only 12% of the American people are aware of the high degree of consensus and instead believe that the climate change issue is a controversy within the scientific community. Further, evidence suggests that “that three out of five high-school teachers in the US were unaware of the scientific consensus on global warming, and that one in three brought that ignorance to their classroom, encouraging their students to discuss the climate-change ‘controversy’.” The data suggests a wide discrepancy between public and expert opinion, a situation which makes policy-making very difficult.
The US has announced that it will continue its process of increasing its commitment to Iraq by increasing the number of troops and helicopters sent to the country. These troops will embed in Iraqi forces in small groups known as “advise-and-assist teams”, undoubtedly bringing them into combat arenas. In addition, the US is going to increase its military aid to the Kurdish peshmerga which will likely anger Turkey even more. The pressure on Daesh continues to grow, but the US is moving very slowly into another ground commitment in Iraq. This movement is something to watch very carefully.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated today that Israel will never give up control of the Golan Heights, Syrian territory that Israel has occupied since the 1967 war. Israel extended Israeli civil law to the territory in 1981, signalling its intention to incorporate the territory under Israeli sovereignty. The international community has never recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Occupied Territories, but with the Syrian government in total disarray right now, there is no appetite to contest the Israeli claim.
The major oil producers failed to reach an agreement to freeze production of oil in order to stabilize global oil prices. Prices have fell sharply over the last year as Saudi Arabia tried to depress the market to prevent US fracked oil and Iranian new production from being economically viable. The effort, however has failed, and it was principally Iran’s refusal to join in the production freeze that led to the collapse of the discussions. All the major oil producers have suffered greatly from the price decline, but Saudi Arabia is playing a long-term gain to prevent the emergence of future competitors.
Image of an Oil Tanker Traffic Jam Near Singapore as Oil Supplies Overwhelm Storage Facilities (4 days ago)
The Czech Republic (part of which we once called Czechoslovakia) is poised to change its official name in the United Nations to Czechia. The name change is part of a “rebranding” effort to better market the country by have a single word on products, like sports apparel, to designate their place of origin. The Czechs cannot use “Czech” since that word is just an adjective in Czech. And many countries are known by a single word even though their official name silently carries the word Republic (France is officially the French Republic). Unfortunately, Czechia sounds an awful like Chechnya, an area in Russia that has long been agitating for its independence.
Saudi Arabia has threatened to sell $billions of its US Treasury bonds if the Congress passes a law allowing victims of the 11 September 2001 tragedy to sue the Saudi government for damages. We don’t really know how many billions of dollars of bonds the Saudis own (strangely, the US treasury withholds that information although it makes that information available for most other countries that own US bonds), but we assume that its holdings are substantial. But the American people have been kept in the dark about Saudi Arabia’s involvement in 9/11 for a very long time. There are 28 pages of the official Congressional investigation in the tragedy that have never been released, and all 28 pages outline Saudi involvement in the attack.
US President George W. Bush and Saudi Arabian King Abdullah, 25 April 2005
When one listens to discussions about Islam in Europe, one could be forgiven for thinking that Europeans know little about Muslims because the movement of Muslims into Europe is a recent phenomenon. Nothing could be further from the truth. From the time that Islam began, the interaction between Muslims from the Middle East and Christians in Europe has been constant and sustained. Much of the interaction has been hostile, but the persistence of misinformation about Islam in Europe is difficult to fathom.
When the Zika virus was first detected in 1947, it did not seem to be a particularly dangerous virus. But recent outbreaks in Brazil and Colombia have led to serious birth defects and paralyzing disorders. Researchers now believe that the Zika virus has a peculiar ability to mutate in a way that has led to exponential growth in Brazil. The research is still ongoing, but there is little doubt that the virus now poses a serious risk to human beings.
German Chncellor Merkel has decided to allow German prosecutors to pursue a case against Jan Boehmermann, a comedian, who had recited a poem about Turkish President Erdogan suggesting that Erdogan watch pornography and engaged in bestiality. There is, in fact, a German law prohibiting insults to foreign leaders, but the code allows discretion in pursuing such cases. Many in Merkel’s ruling coalition believe that Merkel has failed to protect freedom of speech and is instead capitulating to Erdogan because of the refugee crisis.
Last February smashed all previous records for high monthly temperatures for the month and everyone though that the increase was incredible (1.04° C). Unfortunately, February has now lost the record to March which ended up 1.07ºC higher than the previous March. There is evidence to suggest that the temperature increase may be due to the record-setting el Niño. Even so, the temperature increase is truly troubling.
Last month, Russia declared that its military operations in Syria were over and the mission had been accomplished. There is evidence that the Russians have in fact decreased the number of jets stationed in Syria. But overall, the Russian military forces in Syria remain unchanged and the number of Russian attack helicopters has in fact increased. We now are left with an interesting question: Was the mission left unaccomplished because the Russians thought there was more left to do, or because Syrian President Assad demanded that the Russian forces remain. The second possibility has been something that the US experienced in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Being hostage to a government that needs outside support is usually a losing proposition.
The General Accountability Office, a US government office that does research for Congress and which has a very high reputation for its objectivity and professionalism, undertook a study of corporate tax rates in the US. The study was undertaken at the request of Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Apparently Senator Sanders requested the study because US corporations have argued that US corporate tax rates are too high. The facts are that the nominal corporate tax rate in the US is 35% which is unquestionably one of the highest rates in the world. But the effective tax rate–the amount that corporations actually pay after credits and deductions are applied–is remarkably low. According to the GAO:
“In each year from 2006 to 2012, at least two-thirds of all active corporations had no federal income tax liability. Larger corporations were more likely to owe tax. Among large corporations (generally those with at least $10 million in assets) less than half—42.3 percent—paid no federal income tax in 2012. Of those large corporations whose financial statements reported a profit, 19.5 percent paid no federal income tax that year.”
The accompanying chart is revealing:
Percentage of Corporations That Reported No Tax Liability after Tax Credits, Tax Years 2006 to 2012
Nicholas Kristof offers additional information on this topic in the New York Times. Referring to a new study by Oxfam, Kristof writes:
“A study to be released Thursday says that for each dollar America’s 50 biggest companies paid in federal taxes between 2008 and 2014, they received $27 back in federal loans, loan guarantees and bailouts.”
I wish I had that tax rate.
President Robert Mugabe has been the leader of Zimbabwe since its independence in 1980. He has clung to power despite crippling inflation, a poorly performing economy, and charges of widespread economic and political corruption. He has been challenged several times, most recently by Morgan Tsvangirai in a widely discredited election in 2013. It appears, however, that discontent is boiling over with large protests–themselves a rare event in Zimbabwe’s politics. Mugabe is 92 years old, and while he should be admired for his role in leading Zimbabwe out of white minority control, he is obviously not competent to lead the country any longer.
The US and China have an annual exchange of official papers that accuse each other of human rights abuses. Americans are regularly informed about the constraints on the political rights of Chinese citizens. The Chinese, however, have a list of human rights that most Americans would not recognize: the right to be free from gun violence, the right to be free from poverty, and the right to health insurance. These differences are very important, and should be recognized as such. For its part, the Chinese have explicitly rejected the idea of universal human values, believing instead that all human rights are culturally determined.
Russian jets flew “dangerously” close to US naval vessels in the Baltic Sea. The Washington Post has a video of the episode and it is quite extraordinary. The passes were made in international waters and it is not clear what message the Russian pilots were trying to convey or whether they were ordered to make the dangerous passes. Quite clearly, some message was intended, but the risks of an unanticipated accident were very high. No doubt the American naval vessels are no on a higher stage of alert for self-protection. Those higher levels, however, merely make the hair-trigger more sensitive. Or, to use the language of Gizmodo:
“If you were wondering how to be the biggest and possibly most dangerous dick while flying a $19 million piece of military hardware, that’s it.”
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has played her last political card in a desperate attempt to avoid impeachment. She has promised to create a government of national unity if she survives the impeachment vote in the Congress. The gambit is designed to appeal to any last minute waverers in the impeachment vote, but it looks increasingly likely that it will fail. More members of her coalition have defected and it does not appear that she has the votes to survive. In some sense, impeachment would be a relief to the Brazilian economy. Right now, affairs are too problematic for most investors.
Documents recently found indicate that the Stanford Research Institute presented a report to the American Petroleum Institute (API) in 1968 that warned that the burning of fossil fuels could trigger a serious climactic problem. This document suggests that the Petroleum industry knew about the issue of global warming a good 20 years before NASA scientist James Hansen made the issue a public concern. Despite this information, the petroleum industry continued to deny that there was a serious problem for many years.
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