Ali Abdullah Saleh, the former ruler of Yemen and ally of the US, has offered the use of Yemeni territory to Russia to aid in the fight against Daesh (the Islamic State). Saleh was overthrown in 2011 and currently leads a political council that champions the cause of the Houthi rebels. While it is not clear how much power Saleh has to make good on this offer, it represents yet another diplomatic coup for Russia in the Middle East after its overtures to Turkey and Iran. The move comes two days after the US was pulling out of its support for the Saudi-led coalition that is bombing the Houthi rebels who it regards as Iranian allies. The bombing campaign has been ruthless, killing more than 6,500 civilians, prompting outrage among many and leading to the American withdrawal of support.
China, Japan, South Korea Foreign Ministers Meeting has been an annual event since 2007, although it was once suspended for three years due to diplomatic differences. It is an opportunity for the three countries to discuss openly their disputes in hopes of avaoiding misunderstandings that could lead to conflict. Apparently, the three countries are close to deciding to suspend the meeting yet again due to growing tensions in the East and South China Seas. South Korea’s decision to deploy US-developed anti-missile systems is also a source of contention.
It appears as if the efforts of the US and its coalition partners, Russia, and the Kurds are close to undermining the territorial basis for Daesh (the Islamic State). Key cities have been retaken from Daesh control and there is mounting evidence that Daesh forces are becoming less well-organized and effective. The critical question is what happens once Daesh loses its protected base of operations. It is unlikely to disappear and it is unclear how the retaken areas will be governed. It seems likely that Syrian President Assad will be restored to power in Syria, but that leaves key questions about what happens to the Kurds in both Syria and Iraq. Moreover, Daesh will start its operations in a more decentralized manner–its threat does not require it to control territory or cyberspace. It does not appear as if much thought has been given to this question, but it will become more urgent as Daesh dissipates.
Neoliberalism is roughly defined as strict adherence to a certain interpretation of market capitalism: a very limited role for government in the economy enforced by policies that minimize both taxes and budget deficits. It has been the dominant economic ideology since the 1980s for many countries and one implemented by the major economic organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank. In the minds of many analysts (including me), it has been the major cause of the dramatic increase in income and wealth inequality in the world since that time. It now appears as if the ideology of neoliberalism is finally being contested by some of its primary adherents.
In the 1950s, Britain waged a relentless war on the people of Kenya who had begun an uprising against colonial rule. At that time people regarded what was termed the “Mau Mau Uprising” as a necessary war against primitive “savages”. The world actually knew very little about what happened in Kenya because the British destroyed most of the records of the actions against the Kenyans. But the tireless work of one historian, Caroline Elkins, has uncovered the brutality of the British behavior and her work ultimately led to a complete revision of our understanding of the horrible period of imperial savagery.
Britain in Kenya
The video of Omran Daqneesh has indeed gone viral, but, unlike earlier videos of atrocities in other conflicts, it has failed to move any of the great powers involved in the civil war to declare a cease-fire. I am deeply troubled by the absence of outrage–it is the only way to move great powers if the great powers do not force each other to change policy. It now appears as if the remaining innocents in Syria have been completely abandoned–in the same way the people of Rwanda were abandoned in 1994.
Turkey has undergone incredible changes since the coup attempt last month was put down. Many have been arrested on suspicions of complicity with the plotters and many schools and charitable organizations have been shut down. President Erdogan has taken complete control of the government apparatus and he seems to be oblivious to concerns over due process or human rights. It is hard to imagine Turkey returning to democratic government any time in the near future.
The Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) operates in the Xinjiang Province of China and it claims to represent the interests of the Uighur ethnic group. Over the last few years the Uighurs have been demanding greater autonomy from the central government in Beijing. There have been an increasing number of violent actions and there is much evidence that the TIP has been receiving support from Daesh (the Islamic State). Additionally there are many Uighurs fighting in Syria in defense of Daesh. Ultimately, these fighters will end up back in China to work against the central government.
Images often move world politics in ways that words cannot. In the Bosnian conflict in the 1990s, it was a video of a Serbian bombardment of the city of Sarajevo finally forced the world to mobilize and launch a humanitarian intervention. The Aleppo Media Center has released a video of a five-year old boy, Omran Daqneesh, who was rescued from a bombing in Aleppo that may finally mobilize the world to take action in the Syrian civil war. The video is truly heart-breaking and should remind us that most diplomatic-speak is designed to disguise the true horrors of military action. After the release of this video, Russia announced that it would permit a 48-hour cease-fire to allow humanitarian aid to reach Aleppo.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict appears to be escalating. Russia has built-up its military forces in eastern Ukraine to a substantial degree over the summer and overt violence has broken out in Crimea. These developments may be a prelude to another outbreak of war or it may just be another gambit in Russian diplomacy. Russian President Putin may simply be exploiting the weakness in the European Union following the Brexit vote in order to get the economic sanctions against Russia reduced. Or it may be an act of saber-rattling to mobilize support for Putin’s political party, United Russia, in anticipation of the Parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in September.
“According to the documents, which were acquired by the Syrian opposition site Zaman al-Wasl and shared with the AP, 70 percent of recruits were listed as having just ‘basic’ knowledge of Shariah — the lowest possible choice. Around 24 percent were categorized as having an ‘intermediate’ knowledge, with just 5 percent considered advanced students of Islam. Five recruits were listed as having memorized the Quran.”
The analysis suggests that many of these so-called jihadis were not really motivated by religion, but rather by other, non-religious, reasons.
The Council on Foreign Relations has developed a “Global Conflict Tracker” which is a useful interactive graphic on conflicts all over the world. It is a great site to find basic information about conflicts all over the world and whether they have significant or limited effects on American foreign policy. It is specifically directed toward American foreign policy which is a serious limitation, but I suspect that the narrow focus fits in with the mandate of the Council.
Russia has used an Iranian air base to launch air strikes against anti-Assad forces in Syria. The use of Iranian military facilities marks an important step in Iranian-Russian relations. Iran is very sensitive to any foreign forces on its soil, and has a long history of suspicions against Russian intentions. The move also indicates increasing Russian success is forging a coalition with Turkey and China.
Every month this year has set a global high temperature record, and July is no exception. Actually, July is the 15th month in a row to set a new record. Part of the high temperature for the month was due to the strong el Niño which has now begun to abate. But the bulk of the increase is due to human activity. The temperature increase was not uniform across the planet–parts of the Arctic and Antarctic were almost 14 ° F above average.
Conflict has been raging in Yemen for 16 months, abetted by sustained air campaigns conducted by a Saudi Arabian-led coalition. A report issued by the World Bank, United Nations, Islamic Development Bank and European Union estimates that the costs of the war so far have exceeded $14 billion in a country with an average per capita GDP of $1,097. Far worse are the civilian casualties suffered in a war that pays scant attention to the laws of war.
The Russian press is reporting that the US and Russia are close to an agreement on joint military action against Daesh (the Islamic State) in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The US has yet to comment on these reports and we have precious few details on what these joint actions might entail. There is little question that the people of the city desperately need humanitarian support which is impossible without military security. But the key demand of Russia has always been that President Assad must remain in office. It is possible that to secure this agreement, the US might be willing to change its position that Assad must go.
Terrorism is a hot-button political issue and the reasons why are obvious: people demand security from their government and terrorism shatters that promise. It is very easy for politicians to assert that they can stop terrorism, but it is difficult to see the path to the eradication of the tactic. The alternative is to think about terrorism as a treatable, but not curable, disease. Such an alternative interpretation of terrorism requires great political skill and an incredible commitment, but it also requires a different way of thinking about the tactic by the general public.
One of the recurring themes of many political campaigns over the last few years has been the demand for certainty. Fear of immigrants or of people of other ethnicity, race, or sexual orientation seems to be pervasive, and there appears to be a constituency in many polities that wishes the state to protect a specific national “identity” from these others. This demand for moral certainty is also often linked to a demand for economic certainty: protection against the economic activities of these “others”. The combination is toxic but also flawed as it rests upon assumptions about the way things “used to be” that is often imaginary.
Juan Cole is a reliably lefty critic of American foreign policy and a very knowledgeable analyst of Middle Eastern affairs. He has written a blog essay on why the US should not get involved in the Syrian civil war. In so doing, he is responding to those analysts who believe that the humanitarian crisis in Syria is so grotesque that the US should operate under the aegis of of the Responsibility to Protect. Cole gives seven reasons why such a move would be a serious mistake.
Tensions over refugees in Germany are boiling over. German President Joachim Gauck attended a hiking day celebration in the city of Sebnitz and he was greeted by strong protests. The video below is somewhat misleading because the protesters are not clearly identified. Some were protesting German’s lenient policy toward refugees while others were protesting because not enough is being done to help the refugees. The video is, however, testimony to the strong political feelings in the country that will likely resonate in the 2017 elections.
Corruption in politics does not simply revolve around money. Perhaps a more serious threat to democracy is the corruption of language associated with political rhetoric. There are substantive reasons to be concerned about the way language has been misused in a number of recent political campaigns. The current US presidential election is one egregious example of misleading rhetoric, but examples can be found in political campaigns in several other countries.
The U.S.-backed Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), a fighting force comprised of Arabs and Kurds, have taken control of the Syrian city of Manbij. Thousands of displaced citizens returned to the city after the SDF forced out the forces of Daesh (the Islamic State). The liberation of the city was a significant tactical step as it cuts off a central supply route for Daesh between Turkey and Syria.
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