Researchers have come up with evidence that human-induced climate change may have started earlier in the industrial age than previously believed. If this interpretation is valid, then the findings suggest that climate is more sensitive to greenhouse gas warming than assumed in most of the climate models. That interpretation is contested and further research is warranted. For the actual paper, click here (it is a very technical paper).
This post has little to do with world politics, but it is about the issue of governance and why so many people around the world are questioning the legitimacy of the system. The Mylan Corporation recently raised the price of a life-saving drug delivery system called the EpiPen. The drug itself, epinephrine, is a very inexpensive generic drug but Mylan bought the rights to the delivery system, an autoinjector that delivers a carefully calibrated dose. When Mylan bought the rights to the EpiPen in 2007, the pens cost about $57 each; the company now charges more than $500 per pen. To make matters worse, many insurance plans do not cover the cost of the EpiPen. What is reprehensible is that the compensation for Mylan’s CEO, Heather Bresch, went from $2,453,456 to $18,931,068, a 671 percent increase between 2007 and 2015 even though the pen changed not one bit.
In a very curious case, the German government has a recommendation on the legislative table that would require all citizens to “stockpile five days of drinking water and 10 days of food supplies.” The report was prepared by the German Interior Ministry and is predicated on the assumption that the country might face developments that could “threaten our existence.” This policy is unusually dramatic and based upon some sort of existential threat that would suggest the complete collapse of the German state for a period of time. The question is what kind of threat is the Interior Ministry worried about?
In September, China will be hosting the G20 meeting, an annual meeting of the heads of the largest economies in the world to discuss the state of the global economy. The upcoming Beijing Review is devoted to the issues that will be on the table. One of those articles addresses the need to rethink globalization. I sincerely doubt that the issue as such will be discussed since it is too cosmic for a useful conversation. But I have no doubts that the issue of globalization will be part of every discussion about every aspect of the global economy such as trade, investment, and migration. The article is a useful overview of ways to think about how globalization should be managed.
Joseph Stiglitz is a Nobel Prize Laureate economist and he is quite critical of the ideology of neoliberalism. He has written an essay on the European Union which is pessimistic about the future of the Union. There are seven policies he believes must be changed, and those policies all point to less austerity.
Antarctica looks poised to lose part of one of its ice shelves. That ice is floating on the ocean so if it does break off, it will not raise the sea level. But the chunk of ice that appears likely to break off is roughly the size of the US state of Delaware. Antarctica’s ice shelves are not completely understood so it is hard to determine what the effect of such a large calving might be. The situation, however, does attest to some degree of climate change.
Ali Abdullah Saleh, the former ruler of Yemen and ally of the US, has offered the use of Yemeni territory to Russia to aid in the fight against Daesh (the Islamic State). Saleh was overthrown in 2011 and currently leads a political council that champions the cause of the Houthi rebels. While it is not clear how much power Saleh has to make good on this offer, it represents yet another diplomatic coup for Russia in the Middle East after its overtures to Turkey and Iran. The move comes two days after the US was pulling out of its support for the Saudi-led coalition that is bombing the Houthi rebels who it regards as Iranian allies. The bombing campaign has been ruthless, killing more than 6,500 civilians, prompting outrage among many and leading to the American withdrawal of support.
China, Japan, South Korea Foreign Ministers Meeting has been an annual event since 2007, although it was once suspended for three years due to diplomatic differences. It is an opportunity for the three countries to discuss openly their disputes in hopes of avaoiding misunderstandings that could lead to conflict. Apparently, the three countries are close to deciding to suspend the meeting yet again due to growing tensions in the East and South China Seas. South Korea’s decision to deploy US-developed anti-missile systems is also a source of contention.
It appears as if the efforts of the US and its coalition partners, Russia, and the Kurds are close to undermining the territorial basis for Daesh (the Islamic State). Key cities have been retaken from Daesh control and there is mounting evidence that Daesh forces are becoming less well-organized and effective. The critical question is what happens once Daesh loses its protected base of operations. It is unlikely to disappear and it is unclear how the retaken areas will be governed. It seems likely that Syrian President Assad will be restored to power in Syria, but that leaves key questions about what happens to the Kurds in both Syria and Iraq. Moreover, Daesh will start its operations in a more decentralized manner–its threat does not require it to control territory or cyberspace. It does not appear as if much thought has been given to this question, but it will become more urgent as Daesh dissipates.
Neoliberalism is roughly defined as strict adherence to a certain interpretation of market capitalism: a very limited role for government in the economy enforced by policies that minimize both taxes and budget deficits. It has been the dominant economic ideology since the 1980s for many countries and one implemented by the major economic organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank. In the minds of many analysts (including me), it has been the major cause of the dramatic increase in income and wealth inequality in the world since that time. It now appears as if the ideology of neoliberalism is finally being contested by some of its primary adherents.
In the 1950s, Britain waged a relentless war on the people of Kenya who had begun an uprising against colonial rule. At that time people regarded what was termed the “Mau Mau Uprising” as a necessary war against primitive “savages”. The world actually knew very little about what happened in Kenya because the British destroyed most of the records of the actions against the Kenyans. But the tireless work of one historian, Caroline Elkins, has uncovered the brutality of the British behavior and her work ultimately led to a complete revision of our understanding of the horrible period of imperial savagery.
Britain in Kenya
The video of Omran Daqneesh has indeed gone viral, but, unlike earlier videos of atrocities in other conflicts, it has failed to move any of the great powers involved in the civil war to declare a cease-fire. I am deeply troubled by the absence of outrage–it is the only way to move great powers if the great powers do not force each other to change policy. It now appears as if the remaining innocents in Syria have been completely abandoned–in the same way the people of Rwanda were abandoned in 1994.
Turkey has undergone incredible changes since the coup attempt last month was put down. Many have been arrested on suspicions of complicity with the plotters and many schools and charitable organizations have been shut down. President Erdogan has taken complete control of the government apparatus and he seems to be oblivious to concerns over due process or human rights. It is hard to imagine Turkey returning to democratic government any time in the near future.
The Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) operates in the Xinjiang Province of China and it claims to represent the interests of the Uighur ethnic group. Over the last few years the Uighurs have been demanding greater autonomy from the central government in Beijing. There have been an increasing number of violent actions and there is much evidence that the TIP has been receiving support from Daesh (the Islamic State). Additionally there are many Uighurs fighting in Syria in defense of Daesh. Ultimately, these fighters will end up back in China to work against the central government.
Images often move world politics in ways that words cannot. In the Bosnian conflict in the 1990s, it was a video of a Serbian bombardment of the city of Sarajevo finally forced the world to mobilize and launch a humanitarian intervention. The Aleppo Media Center has released a video of a five-year old boy, Omran Daqneesh, who was rescued from a bombing in Aleppo that may finally mobilize the world to take action in the Syrian civil war. The video is truly heart-breaking and should remind us that most diplomatic-speak is designed to disguise the true horrors of military action. After the release of this video, Russia announced that it would permit a 48-hour cease-fire to allow humanitarian aid to reach Aleppo.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict appears to be escalating. Russia has built-up its military forces in eastern Ukraine to a substantial degree over the summer and overt violence has broken out in Crimea. These developments may be a prelude to another outbreak of war or it may just be another gambit in Russian diplomacy. Russian President Putin may simply be exploiting the weakness in the European Union following the Brexit vote in order to get the economic sanctions against Russia reduced. Or it may be an act of saber-rattling to mobilize support for Putin’s political party, United Russia, in anticipation of the Parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in September.
“According to the documents, which were acquired by the Syrian opposition site Zaman al-Wasl and shared with the AP, 70 percent of recruits were listed as having just ‘basic’ knowledge of Shariah — the lowest possible choice. Around 24 percent were categorized as having an ‘intermediate’ knowledge, with just 5 percent considered advanced students of Islam. Five recruits were listed as having memorized the Quran.”
The analysis suggests that many of these so-called jihadis were not really motivated by religion, but rather by other, non-religious, reasons.
The Council on Foreign Relations has developed a “Global Conflict Tracker” which is a useful interactive graphic on conflicts all over the world. It is a great site to find basic information about conflicts all over the world and whether they have significant or limited effects on American foreign policy. It is specifically directed toward American foreign policy which is a serious limitation, but I suspect that the narrow focus fits in with the mandate of the Council.
Russia has used an Iranian air base to launch air strikes against anti-Assad forces in Syria. The use of Iranian military facilities marks an important step in Iranian-Russian relations. Iran is very sensitive to any foreign forces on its soil, and has a long history of suspicions against Russian intentions. The move also indicates increasing Russian success is forging a coalition with Turkey and China.
Every month this year has set a global high temperature record, and July is no exception. Actually, July is the 15th month in a row to set a new record. Part of the high temperature for the month was due to the strong el Niño which has now begun to abate. But the bulk of the increase is due to human activity. The temperature increase was not uniform across the planet–parts of the Arctic and Antarctic were almost 14 ° F above average.
Conflict has been raging in Yemen for 16 months, abetted by sustained air campaigns conducted by a Saudi Arabian-led coalition. A report issued by the World Bank, United Nations, Islamic Development Bank and European Union estimates that the costs of the war so far have exceeded $14 billion in a country with an average per capita GDP of $1,097. Far worse are the civilian casualties suffered in a war that pays scant attention to the laws of war.
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