World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

The Federation of American Scientists has released a study of six possible scenarios of military and diplomatic actions designed to address the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons.   The conclusions are interesting (the cost of a full invasion of Iran is estimated to cost $1.7 trillion), but what is more useful is the framing of the scenarios and how the authors set up the different possibilities.  Many times we tend to think that there are only two solutions to a problem–it is important to construct as many different solutions as seem feasible.

At some point in the future it is likely that the world will experience a cyberwar–an attack on the computer systems of the infrastructure of a state.  It is a difficult thing to do, but the expertise to carry out such an attack is growing steadily.  What we don’t know is how robust the defenses against such an attack are since no state will ever outline such defenses beforehand, for obvious reasons.  But in the case of a successful attack, the results could be devastating.

The German foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst, has changed its assessment of the survival chances for Syrian President Assad.  It now believes that Assad’s chances of surviving the rebellion are increasing.  This news is especially bad for Western interests since it suggests that Russian and Iranian interests will be enhanced as a consequence.  It also means that Hezbollah backed the right horse, which spells greater trouble for Israel.  The assessment is important since the BND is highly regarded.  But the situation in Syria remains exceptionally fluid.

The US has now admitted that four American citizens have been killed abroad by drone attacks.  Three of those four were not “specifically” targets of the attacks.  It is unclear what that means.  Most likely, they were close to the attack on the actual target, Anwar al-Awlaki, an American citizen living in Yemen who was inciting violent acts against the US.   Attorney General Holder released a letter (which you can read here)  which outlined the reasons why Awlaki was killed.  The charges against Awlaki are indeed nasty, but it is important to remember that we have no evidence whatsoever that the charges are true or accurate.  The charges are findings agreed upon by “senior” US officials.  The charges were never verified by the normal due processes guaranteed to every American citizen in the Constitution.  We must be vigilant in demanding that these procedures are followed in all cases.

Chinese dissident, Ai Weiwei, has released a music video with the English title, “Dumbass,” which chronicles his 81-day detention in prison.  You can view the video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ACj86DKfWs but there is no English translation.  The video is apparently not available in China.

The latest country to experience youth protests that have turned violent is Sweden.  The cause of the violence seems to be the same as in other countries that have experienced similar protests: joblessness and a lack of confidence in the politics of the country.  Sadly, anti-immigrant sentiment also seems to be a factor in the riots.  One wanted to hope that the Scandinavian states would avoid this bane, but it seems as if it affects many oof them, Finland and Denmark in particular.

One of the arguments commonly made in the austerity vs. stimulus debate is that cutting taxes, and not deficit spending,  is the best way to stimulate economic growth.  Cutting taxes almost invariably means austerity, but the supporters of tax cuts argue that the economic growth created by putting more money in the hands of investors is the best way to create jobs.  Often, the argument is made without evidence–it is in fact an ideological position.  I should hasten to add that some who support deficit spending also often argue from an ideological position–some kinds of spending will stimulate growth, but other kinds of spending will not.  Bruce Bartlett, who was an economic adviser to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush and is generally regarded as a supporter of the free market, uses a mountain of evidence to demonstrate that some kinds of tax cuts, specifically those implemented by President George W. Bush, did not create jobs.

Speaking of jobs, there is a very thought-provoking podcast on the job market in 2045. If you want to read the transcript, just click here.

Son of Drone?  The US Defense Department is working on hypersonic cruise missiles (hypersonic is defined as at least five times the speed of sound at sea level).  Test prototypes have reached speeds of Mach 20 which means that the US could virtually bomb any place on the planet before the enemy even knows that a missile has been fired.  The plans are to deploy these missiles by 2025.  Perhaps the US will work on the laws governing the use of these missiles before they are deployed and avoid the situation it is in now with respect to drone warfare:  other nations are building their own drones and there are no agreed upon rules governing their use.

I doubt that many of the readers of this blog have heard of “Able Archer 83.”  Able Archer was a military maneuver conducted by the US and its NATO allies in 1983 which the Soviet Union interpreted as a genuine prelude to war.  The series of steps leading up to the crisis–the most serious US-Soviet confrontation since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962–show how flawed communication, bad rhetoric, and self-serving  miscalculations can lead up to a crisis.   The National Security Archive has published some recently declassified documents on the crisis, and provides a very succinct summary of the crisis.

The European Commission has carried out a series of “unannounced” inspections of the books of BP and Shell Oil.  The Commission believes that the oil companies have colluded to rig oil prices for more than a decade.  If true, the collusion mimics the behavior of the large banks in manipulating interest rates during the same period for which the banks were fined hundreds of millions of dollars.  It is hard to believe that such profitable companies would resort to criminal behavior to enrich themselves even more.  Barry Ritholz catalogs the significance of the charges and puts them in a context that will simply leave one breathless with indignation.

The economic situation in Europe continues to deteriorate, and the slowdown has seriously affected the younger population, aged 17-24.  Many of the newspapers in Europe are now referring to the “lost generation” as a way to describe the bleak employment prospects of the group.  The problem is not merely economic.  The political effects of a generation losing hope in the future are always debilitating, and often they turn to “strong” men to lead them out of their predicament.

El Pais one of the leading newspapers in Spain ran an article detailing the last 1000 days of the economic problems in Spain.  There are many details in the article about which I was unaware, such as the central role of the former head of the central bank of Spain in implementing an austerity program in his newer role as a member of the EUropean Central Bank–in other words, he was able to accomplish a policy from an international position that he was unable to implement from a national position.  The most sobering paragraph reads as follows: “Novelist and essayist Antonio Muñoz Molina warns in a recent piece entitled Todo lo que era sólido (or, All that once was solid) that it is not possible to reduce spending on education and health, legal aid and emergency services indefinitely without destroying society as we know it. Beyond a certain point, there is no return. Things deteriorate little by little, and then suddenly, one day, instead of continuing along lines that we have grown used to, the whole thing collapses, without transition, in the same way that a house that seemed to be an eternal ruin collapses overnight.”

The conclusion is also echoed in one of the leading  newspapers in Greece.

The Bretton Woods system (the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization) was created in 1944 and the system oversaw a truly historic increase in economic activity.  However, the world today is radically different from the one in 1944 and many have argued that the system needs to be overhauled.  The Council on Foreign Relations has published an essay advocating some changes it believes are necessary.

The new Italian coalition government led by Enrico Letta faced large protests against the austerity policies of the government.  The government  is based on a shaky coalition between the center-right and center-left parties due to the refusal of the Five Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo to join any coalition government.  Polls indicate that the new government has very weak support and the protests could lead to a failed government–a move that would shock the European markets.   Prime Minister Letta has few options since it is unlikely that the EU and the IMF would balk against any stimulus moves.  It is more than likely that no one will challenge the new government simply out of fear of precipitating a collapse.

Zahra Shahid Hussain, a leading supporter of Pakistani Presidential candidate  Imran Khan, was assassinated in Karachi.  The killing took place in the context of a re-vote in the city due to irregularities in the vote last week.  Hussain was a very vocal supporter of Khan and she was a powerful member of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) party.  Her death will further unsettle an already volatile situation.

The Atlantic published a conversation among Eric Schmidt, Jared Cohen, and Steve Clemons on the internet’s role in transforming world politics.   The conversation was grim, with the discussants raising the possibility that the internet might actually lead to greater divisions within the global culture due to the power of governments to manipulate information.  That possibility flies in the face of what we once expected: that the internet would limit the power of states.   I recommend the conversation–it is stimulating, thoughtful, and well-informed.

Violence against Iraqi Sunnis has reached very high levels, as it appears as if the political situation in the country is rapidly deteriorating.  The Sunnis, once the dominant political group under both British imperial rule and the Saddam Hussein regime, are chafing under the rule of the Shias even though the Shia account for 60% of the population.   The Iraqi government has been working more closely with the Iranian government, and the Sunni see very little chance of being accorded full legitimacy under the current government.  Hope for a fully democratic Iraq seems to be rapidly fading.

Even though the world just broke through the 400 parts per million barrier of Carbon Dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, it does not appear as if governments are taking the threat of clikmate change very seriously.  Great Britain just drastically reduced the size of the government staff responsible for helping the people of Great Britain adapt to climate change.   It seems as if the office responsible for making the adaptations was “spooking” investors.  The budget crisis in the UK is also responsible for the staff reductions.

Michael Walzer is one of the most thoughtful scholars in the field of international ethics.  He has written a very sobering essay on the situation in Syria.  It does not really offer a solution, but does offer a way to think about a possible solution to the tragedy.

The Israeli government has approved the building of four more settlements in the Occupied Territories.  The decision is highly controversial since building settlements in occupied territory is a clear violation of international law, and the consistent position of the US is that the settlements are not legal.  Nonetheless, the Israeli government is proceeding despite the scheduled visit of US Secretary of State Kerry and his stated preference for restarting negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Max Fisher of the Washington Post has written an interesting essay on racial tolerance in the world.  Using data from the World Values Survey, Fisher made some heroic assumptions about the interpretation of one of the questions in the survey.  His findings are displayed visually, and they raise some fascinating questions about what we mean when we talk about racial intolerance.

The campaign against female genital mutilation has scored an impressive breakthrough in Niger, as thousands of individuals in the country took vows to end the practice and to stop child marriages.  The practice has been illegal in Niger for many years, but it has been difficult to end.  The public ceremonies can go a long way in changing attitudes toward the practice, but the public vows need to be backed up with positive social and economic reforms as well.

One of the first attempts at cyberwarfare was a computer virus named Stuxnet that was used to disrupt the centrifuges used to enrich uranium in Iran.   The US and Israel are widely reputed to have launched the virus, and the initial reports were that the virus did in fact cause the centrifuges to malfunction.  A new report, however, suggests that the long-term effects of the attack were negligible.  Shortly after the attack, Iran increased its production of enriched uranium and proceeded more cautiously by obtaining newer centrifuges.

The eurozone countries have entered into the longest economic slowdown in the history of the group.  Even Germany was not able to lift the group into positive economic growth since its quarterly economic growth was only 0.1%.  The slowdown is even worse than the one suffered after the economic crisis of 2008-09.  The news is not only bad for the heavily indebted countries in the group, but it is also bad news for the rest of the world.  Europe is, for example, the largest purchaser of Chinese exports.

The OECD released a report indicating that the gap between rich and poor in the rich countries has grown more in the last three years than in the previous 12 years.  The income inequality seems to be accelerating because of the austerity policies being pursued by many of the rich countries.

The Carnegie Endowment has published a very good assessment of the current situation in Syria.  The bottom line of the analysis is that Russia’s policies towards the world and the region are the key to any resolution of the civil war.  Russian interests have, over time, solidified in favor of protecting the Assad regime, but that policy is gradually losing credibility and respect.  Whether the other members of the UN Security Council can persuade Russia to change its policy vis-a-vis Assad is the critical question.

Paul Krugman has been relentless in his critique of the austerity policies being pursued by many governments and international organizations.  His analysis is firmly rooted in statistics and he frankly acknowledges his own bias as a Keynesian who believes that governments should stimulate an economy that is depressed.  He has written a very comprehensive review of several books that have recently been published on the austerity/stimulus debate.  It is a long essay, but I highly recommend it.

The democratization of Burma is truly a significant event–the end of military rule in the country was one of the most important events in the last few years.  Unfortunately, the Muslim minority–known as the Royinghas–has not enjoyed the new freedom.  Instead, the persecution of the Muslims in the country has significantly increased.