Protests in Spain, Portugal, and Germany (!) were staged yesterday. The protests were against the imposition of austerity measures that have led to the highest unemployment rate in European Union history. These protests should be viewed as highly related to the ongoing protests in Turkey. It’s beginning to look like it is going to be a long and hot summer.
More than 1,000 Iraqis were killed in sectarian violence last month, the highest rate since 2006-07. This violence is correlated to the ongoing power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran which is being played out in Syria. This Shia-Sunni split is not the cause of the violence, but it does draw the line between the strategic interests of the two countries. It is unfortunate that religion serves as the dividing line between fairly traditional balance of power interests.
It’s time to relax. This is a real-time video of the full moon rising in New Zealand (Mount Victoria Lookout in Wellington). The photographer says there is no digital manipulation of the film. It’s truly extraordinary. Your moment of cosmic mishegass.
One of the interesting dimensions of the debate over Iran’s nuclear program is the extent to which the media describe the issue. One could be forgiven if one were to believe that Iran has a nuclear weapons program given the words used by the media to describe Iranian activities. But a very careful analysis of all the hard evidence indicates that there is not sufficient reason to believe that Iran has a nuclear weapons program. In fact, all the hard evidence suggests that Iran has adhered closely to the provisions of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. One is left to conclude that either the media is not careful in its choice of words or that the media is serving as propaganda outlets to some states.
We noted a few days ago that a new SARS-like coronavirus (MERS-CoV), with a very high mortality rate, has been identified and located primarily in Saudi Arabia. Apparently, one of the medical doctors who worked with the virus sent a sample of the virus to researchers at a research lab, the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam. Erasmus subsequently filed what is known as a Material Transfer Agreement which “requires sample recipients to contractually agree not to develop products or share the sample without the permission of Erasmus.” An MTA is not a patent, but is a preliminary step to filing a patent, and has slowed down research on the virus. Privatization of medical research on urgent public health issues such as a life-threatening virus should not be allowed.
What started out as an environmental protest in Turkey quickly escalated into large-scale national protests. The initial protests were against changes to be made to Gezi Park in Taksim Square in Istanbul. But the protest tapped into widespread discontent with the rule of Prime Minister Erdogan and the 11-year rule of his Justice and Development Party (AKP). Many in Turkey believe that Erdogan has become increasingly authoritarian and new laws prohibiting certain sales of alcohol are viewed as a creeping form of Islamism infiltrating the secular constitution of Turkey.
Late-breaking news: the Russians have sent their only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, into the Mediterranean. The deployment is an unmistakable signal that the Russians are upping the ante in their support for Syrian President Assad. The next move it up to the US and the EU. With Turkey facing growing protests and the growing violence in Lebanon, it is safe to say that the situation is getting quite serious.
Andrew Bacevich is one of the more thoughtful critics of American foreign policy. He is an historian at Boston University and served in the US military (his son was killed in Iraq while serving). He has written a very interesting essay entitled “How We Name Our Wars Matters” which raises a number of thought-provoking issues.
The end of World War II in the Pacific Theater continues to be highly controversial. The American interpretation of the conclusion of the war is that the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki brought the Japanese to surrender on American terms. Others argue that the Japanese were already prepared to surrender. Yet another interpretation is that the threat of Soviet intervention in the war persuaded the Japanese to quit the war. Foreign Policy has a great article making the Soviet intervention argument.
Youth unemployment in Europe continues to rise, with Italy’s rate also breaking the 40% mark. The numbers of young people unemployed in Europe is truly staggering, and increasingly dangerous politically. Some are worried that this summer could see protests by those who have given up on the political and economic system to address their situation.
The US Census Bureau reports that about 15% of the American people live in poverty. That statistics seriously underestimates how many American families are living close to the financial edge. According to Paul Buchheit, “the IRS reports that the highest wage in the bottom half of earners is about $34,000. To be eligible for food assistance, a family can earn up to 130% of the federal poverty line, or about $30,000 for a family of four.”Income inequality in the United States has worsened more in the last three years than in the previous 12 years. The US Congress is considering making more budgets cuts in food, housing and education budgets than the richest 400 Americans made in the stock market investments last year. There is something seriously wrong with this situation.
Israel has announced that it is planning to build 1,000 new settler homes in mainly Arab areas of Jerusalem. The move comes as US Secretary of State Kerry is trying to restart the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. These settlements are illegal under international law, and the US has consistently spoken out against the building of new settlements. The Palestinian share of the West Bank continues to shrink at an astonishing rate.
China is rapidly increasing its military capabilities, and many in the US think that the military increases are threatening to American security. It is important to understand the basis for Chinese support for its military–comparing the US increases to Chinese increases leads to a distorted view. Much military spending has little to do with foreign threats–it is also driven by domestic political and economic considerations. Here’s an article that places the Chinese military development in a slightly different context.
Growing wealth inequality is probably the greatest threat to the stability of the human community right now. Branko Milanovic, one of the lead economists at the World Bank, has found “that the top 8% of global earners are drawing 50% of all of this planet’s income.” The inequality has been getting worse throughout the modern period, and seems to be an active and necessary part of the economic system created over the last 500 years. For a visual representation of the problem, you can watch the following video.
A new coronavirus has been circulating and it has medical experts concerned. The cases have been centered around Saudi Arabia, and it is especially deadly. It has killed 27 of 49 infected patients. The number of infected people remains very small, but the virus has a death rate considerably higher than the SARS virus in November 2002 (8000 infected people and a fatality rate of 10%). It does not appear to be spread by casual contact, but doctors are concerned because so little is known about how the disease is transmitted. As of now it has been designated as the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV).
The African Union has accused the International Criminal Court of choosing to prosecute only cases against African leaders. Indeed, of the eight cases before the ICC, all eight are in African countries. There are atrocities committed in every part of the world, so the accusation is accurate. But the accusation may be based on racial attitudes or it could be based on the relative weakness of the national courts in Africa. The statute of the ICC demands that accused individuals be tried in national courts, and the jurisdiction of the ICC only kicks in if the national courts are unwilling or unable to prosecute crimes against humanity. Indeed, the African Union has asked that the ICC charges currently pending against Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatte be transferred back to Kenyan courts. The ICC needs to address this issue if it is to achieve a high degree of legitimacy.
Russia is sending an advanced air-defense missile system to Syria. The sale had been scheduled for some time, but the EU and the US had persuaded Russia to delay delivery. The decision to send the missiles suggests that the Russians fear some sort of intervention by the Western states, most likely a no-fly zone over Syria. But it also suggests that the Russians believe that Assad must have a reasonable chance of surviving since they would be unlikely to anger the Western allies on a losing bet. The Russians, however, demonstrated that hypocrisy is still a fine art in world politics since, at the same time they announced the delivery of the missiles, they condemned the EU for not extending the arms embargo on Syria.
Foreign Policy has published anarticle by Alireza Nader on the Iranian nuclear issue. Nader makes a persuasive argument that a nuclear-armed Iran would not be as dangerous as many assume. The likelihood that Iran would act substantially differently from other nuclear powers is a difficult position to defend. Nuclear weapons have had the effect of making states act more cautiously than they might otherwise have acted.
The Washington Post has published an article outlining the degree of cyber-spying by China on advanced US weapoins systems. The article reports that the Chinese have hacked into the computer files detailing two dozen advanced weapons systems, including the F-35, the not-even-deployed fighter plane that is supposed to be the most advanced fighter plane ever built. It’s not clear how much information was stolen through the spying, but the report indicates that the US Department of Defense is concerned about the security lapse. One should not be surprised that such spying occurs–every state spies on every other state.
Jobs are hard to find everywhere in the world, even in countries with high rates of economic growth. China is encountering a serious problem finding enough jobs for its college graduates. Note, however, the curious contradiction in the article: not enough jobs, but serious overwork for those with jobs. Companies try to keep down labor costs as much as possible by not hiring workers, so the workload on those with jobs is intolerable. Over time the shortage of jobs is going to lead to serious political problems, if young people do not believe that the system offers opportunity.
An anti-Muslim march was held in London in response to the killing of a British soldier by a religious extremist. The march was organized by the English Defence League, a far right party. A spike in anti-Islamic incidents has been reported after the killing, and the British leadership has been singularly inept at dealing with the problem. The issue is the growth of extremism in Britain, not Islam, but the Prime Minister has not spoken out forcibly to the public making that distinction. It is precisely at times of great anguish and uneasiness that leaders need to step out in front of hysteria.
The European Union has decided not to extend the arms embargo on Syria. The decision frees EU states to send or sell weapons to the rebels in Syria, although it is not clear that any state has any plans to do so at present. It will be interesting to see which state decides to provide arms and what the precipitating event for that decision will be. The US is likely to keep its arms embargo intact for now. There might be a joint US-EU decision at some point in the future since it now appears as if President Assad has the upper hand in the civil war.
The Director of the Red Cross and Red Crescent is warning that unrest in Europe could increase because of the deteriorating economic situation. We have witnessed many protests against the austerity programs being implemented to reduce the debt levels of various governments. The effects of these programs have been significant in some countries. In Greece, for example, suicides have increased 26% from 2011-2012. The have been six self-immolations in Bulgaria.
Rockets have been fired from within Lebanon into Hezbollah strongholds, suggesting that Hezbollah’s open statement supporting Syrian President Assad has widened the war into Lebanon. The group launching the missiles has not been identified. While there have been cross-border attacks into Lebanon, the use of rockets is a major escalation in the violence. The commitment of the Lebanese government to not be involved in Syrian affairs is obvious, but its ability to avoid being dragged into the conflict is doubtful.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, stated publicly that his forces would support Syrian President Assad, suggesting that Hezbollah is “fighting in Syria against Islamic extremists who pose a danger to Lebanon.” Recent fighting has been particularly fierce near the town of Qusair, near the border with Lebanon. The pledge confirms what we have known for some time, but it marks a clear escalation in the intervention of outside forces in the Syrian civil war. The next step will likely come from Israel.
US President Obama made one of his most important foreign policy speeches at the National Defense University in which he essentially ended the “global war on terror” launched by President George W. Bush. The declaration was long overdue, but is important to remember that President Obama is not an “antiwar” president. He reserved the right to use force against the enemies of the state, but he no longer believes that the US is threatened by a coordinated enemy (if he ever believed that high degree of threat from al-Qaeda). His speech in Norway when he received the Nobel Peace Prize was a vigorous defense of the Just War Doctrine.
There were a large number of protests all over the world against Monsanto, an American company closely tied to genetically modified food. There were protests in 436 cities, and the number of protesters was estimated in the millions. It has proven to be very difficult to evaluate the health effects of genetically modified foods since the US Congress effectively took the power to review those foods away from the US Food and Drug Agency. Many believe that the GMOs are disruptive and dangerous.
A few days ago, I noted that riots among Swedish youth were occurring. These riots have been continuing, and I have been able to find some information about the economic situation in Sweden that might explain the violence. It appears as if even Sweden, one of the most egalitarian societies in the world, has been experiencing growing income inequality along with the rest of the world. Globalization is the underlying cause of the inequality as money continues to flow to capital and away from labor.
About 500 scientists have issued a rather chilling document, titled “The Bonn Declaration,” which argues that by the middle of this century the world will be facing critical fresh water shortages. The four-day conference was organized by the Global Water System Project. The current mismanagement of water supplies is extraordinary, and it is safe to say that there really is no substitute for fresh water. With 9 billion people expected by 2042, the present stress on fresh water will only get worse.
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