World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Sorry for missing a day.  I was giving a speech to the MHC Alumnae Club in Houston.  A wonderful, and very gracious group.  But it was a long trip–the airlines are currently being led by Torquemada.

The Pew Foundation ran a poll in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland and the Czech Republic which was conducted from March 2 to March 27, 2013.  The poll asked questions about the economic situation in Europe and the prospects for the European Union.  Needless to say, there was a high degree of gloom among some of the states, and some of the results show real problems for the Union’s future.  THe one outlier in the poll was Germany, but that’s no surprise since most of the economic issues reflect some of the special strengths of the German economy.

Labor unrest in the textile industry in Bangladesh has dramatically increased after the tragedy at Rana Plaza in which over 1,100 garment workers died.   The Bangladeshi textile industry is one of the largest in the world, but the conditions for the workers in the industry have been deplorable for many years.  Finally, the world seems to be paying attention to the plight of the workers and the workers are demanding that their conditions be dramatically improved.  The change is long overdue.

The Israeli-Palestinian dispute is clearly over land, but, in truth, the underlying concern over the land revolves around the access to water in the region.  Understanding how difficult it is to parse out the land with underground aquifers is central to moving forward in the dispute.  The ultimate resolution will involve much more than simple “land swaps” if the two parties ever get to that point.

Many authors talk about a period of American “decline” or “pullback” from the world.  In many respects, the assessment is valid, particularly as far as the American public is concerned.  But the US is still quite active:  by one count, the US is fighting or involved in fighting in 74 countries in the world at the present time.   Most of these commitments are very small scale, but each has the possibility of burgeoning into something larger, simply by virtue of the fact that the US is involved.   It is very difficult for the US to extricate itself from global commitments; picking and choosing the right ones seems to be the highest priority for US policymakers now.

Nawaz Sharif is claiming victory in the Pakistani elections.  He was forced from office 14 years ago and sent into exile after a military coup so his comeback is extraordinary.  His platform was largely based on ending drone strikes by the US in Pakistani territory and a strong stand against terrorism.  But the overwhelming concern of the Pakistani electorate was the sad state of the economy:  unemployment is rising and electricity is sporadic in many areas of the country.

Time has released some amazing timelapse photography of changes to the earth over periods of decades.  The photos were taken from space, and the timelapse photography shows how human beings have altered the environment, primarily in the search for energy.  The images are beautiful, but also somewhat depressing.  It is hard to believe that human activity can have such a decisive effect.

Welcome to the Miocene Era.  CO2 concentrations have broken through the 400 parts per million that the earth last saw about 10 million years ago.  What is remarkable about this milestone is that it took only about 100 years to reach these levels, whereas previous changes in CO2 concentrations took much longer periods of time.  Whether life can adapt quickly enough to adjust to these changes remains to be seen.

A court in Guatemala has found former leader, Efrain Rios Montt, guilty of genocide.  He was found guilty of ordering the killing of many from the Ixil Maya ethnic group during 1982 and 1983.  This is the first time a national court has found a leader guilty of the crime of genocide, although international courts have reached the same verdict for other leaders.  The finding is long overdue, and one can only hope that a process of reconciliation can begin in Guatemala.

There are reports that Russia is thinking about selling advanced anti-aircraft systems to the Syrian government.  If true, the deployment of such systems would complicate any efforts on the part of the UN to intervene in Syria, since any intervention would require that the Syrian government be disarmed prior to the intervention.  The speculation is that the recent Israeli air attacks on Syria have concerned President Assad and his principal supporter–Russia.  The deployment would also signal the Russian determination to keep Assad in power, making the chance for outside intervention even slimmer.

There will be a national election in Pakistan on Saturday, a very important event marking the first peaceful transfer of power in the 66 years of Pakistani politics.  The polls indicate that Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the opposition, is most likely to win the election, ending the rule of the Pakistani People’s Party.  There has been violence associated with the campaigns, but it appears as if the election will be held and that its results should be considered legitimate.   But at this stage the results are unpredictable.

The Guardian, a lefty newspaper in Britain, has been leading a very robust investigation into tax evasion and offshore tax shelters.  It should be commended for its dogged work in this very secretive arena, and its efforts are beginning to have a real effect on tax evasion in Britain.  The investigation has led to several changes in EU policy, and will be on the agenda for the upcoming G8 meeting.  It is singularly unfortunate that none of the large media outlets in the United States has followed the lead of the  Guardian .

Save the Children has issued its report on the state of the world’s mothers.  Its report highlights the survival rates of babies on their first day.  Sadly, the Democratic Republic of Congo ranks last with the highest death rate; Finland ranks first.  The United States came in last among the advanced industrialized countries, coming in at 30th in the world.  The report is a wonderful source of information on the well-being of mothers in the world.

The New Yorker has an excellent piece on the decision making process in the Obama Administration on the question of whether to intervene in Syria.  The article lays out all the different pressures to intervene and not to intervene.  I recommend the article for its ability to  parse out the different options available to the US, although if one is looking for a clear-cut course of action, the essay will disappoint.  It does have an interesting interpretation of how President Assad will retreat when he senses that the civil war is lost.

The World Trade Organization has announced that Roberto Azevedo will be its next leader.  Azevedo is from Brazil and has been instrumental in pushing cases against the US and China on issues not typically linked to trade.  The head of the WTO is chosen by consensus, and, although the US stayed quite quiet about the selection process, it seemed as if the US favored a candidate from Mexico who had been part of the negotiating team that crafted NAFTA.  The WTO is not doing well because of the failed Doha trading negotiations that dragged on for nearly ten years.  We’ll see if Azevedo can revive the institution’s fortunes.

3-D printing is the latest innovation in manufacturing, one that will likely presage a return to manufacturing activity in many countries that lost out to countries with cheaper labor.  Unfortunately, this new activity will most likely not create many jobs.  It is very difficult to anticipate how disruptive this new phase of economic activity will be.  Obviously, many jobs will be lost; but some jobs will certainly be created as well.  It does seem, however, that there will be a net loss of jobs.

Syria has disappeared from the internet.  In a remarkable turn of events, virtually all internet traffic from Syria stopped today.  It is likely that the Syrian government halted the traffic, but it is unclear why the government would do so.  Obviously, one fears some sort of incident that the government does not wish to be made public.  But all we can do at this time is speculate.

One of the more serious immediate problems the world faces (there are many medium and long-term threats as well) is the unemployment of people aged 15-24.  The OECD identifies the status of many of these people as NEETs–Not in Employment, Education, or Training.  The Economist  estimates that as many as 290 million people are NEETs, or about a quarter of that group’s total population.  This age cohort is politically important, and if the group gives up hope for the future, then politics generally speaking becomes more radical (to the right and to the left).

A UN inquiry commission has looked into the charges that sarin gas was used in the Syrian civil war and its preliminary findings are that it was used by the Syrian rebel forces, and not by the government of President Assad.  The finding, if true, would complicate the UN’s possible response to the breach of international law.  The rebel forces are not a monolithic entity and it would be difficult to determine which faction used the weapons.  The finding would also undermine efforts by the US and Israel to mount an intervention against Assad.

The National Front has been declared the winner in the Malaysian elections, continuing its uninterrupted rule in that state.  Anwar Ibrahim is charging fraud in the election, but it is unlikely that the result will be overturned.  The outcome is unlikely to resolve any of the ethnic tensions that have been brewing for many years in the country, as non-Malays encounter systematic discrimination at all levels of government and in public employment.

Exams are over.  Time to relax.

Time-Lapse | Earth from Bruce W. Berry Jr on Vimeo.

Israel’s air strike on Syria was quite extensive, signaling a sharp change in the character of the civil war.  It is unclear what reaction Syria might take since Assad has his hands full with the rebels.  Israel’s intention is to disarm Hezbollah, but, given that it struck Syrian government facilities, it suggests that Israel is siding with the rebels.  The US is also inching forward with arming some of the rebels, so it appears as if there is a faction among the rebels with which the Americans and the Israelis feel comfortable.  But this is a close game–some of the rebel groups are adamantly opposed to Israeli and US interests.  These are games within games.

Rioting is breaking out in Bangladesh, as Islamist groups are protesting in favor of laws that adhere more strictly to the Koran.  The protesters are pushing for stricter blasphemy laws and greater separation between men and women.   The government responded to the violence with a massive police presence, but the violence, in tandem with the protests against the sweatshops making clothing for export, has placed the government in a precarious position.

Generally speaking, technological innovation during industrialization has almost always led to an increase of overall jobs, even as it destroyed jobs.  The tradeoff was always difficult to make, particularly if one was working in a job that was made obsolete.  At least, however, there was some comfort in knowing that those who had a degree of mobility (the young) had greater employment opportunities because of innovation.   The recent trends, however, are a little more worrying: technological innovation seems to be reducing the overall number of jobs, and limiting the new jobs to people who had very high levels of skill.  This change, if accurately characterized, will mean that economic growth will not be tied to more jobs, a difficult condition for economies that use employment to provide incomes.  Perhaps a change in the way we think of the function of labor is in order.

For all you out there who believe in the myth of multitasking, this op-ed is essential reading.   Our brains are wired to do only one thing at a time; whether we can switch back and forth between tasks quickly is a matter of speculation.  I doubt that rapid switching is the most efficient way to get things done.  Staying focused on one thing is the superior method.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has submitted some proposed changes to the Japanese Constitution that is raising concerns about his party’s commitment to liberal values.  The current constitution guarantees many of the individual rights enshrined in the American constitution, but the proposed changes delete these references and instead substitutes submission to an undefined “public interest and public order.”  These proposed changes augment  fears that Abe is moving Japan toward a more nationalist stance reminiscent of its pre-World War II order.  If true, then most of East Asia will certainly respond quite negatively.

Google has changed the way Palestine is recognize by its search algorithms.  It used to recognize the “Palestinian Territories” but now recognizes “Palestine.”  The change comes after the United Nations General Assembly voted last November (138 votes for, 9 against, and 41 abstentions) to give Palestine observer status in the UN.   The change may seem trivial, but, given the power of social media in the world today, the change is truly consequential.

There are reports that Israel has conducted an airstrike in Syria.  If confirmed, it would represent a change in the character of the civil war.  The reports do not indicate the targets or the extent of the strike, so we will have to wait for additional information.  It is likely, however, that Israel would not have intervened unless there was specific military concern.  Interestingly, the Israeli press is suggesting that President Assad may be turning the corner in his effort to stay in power.

A new miniature drone has been developed, whose designed mimics a housefly and is about the same size.  The technology is still in its infancy, but the capabilities of the drone are incredible.  Soo the ability of the government and private individuals to conduct surveillance will be virtually unlimited.

The political situation in Iraq has been steadily worsening over the last year as al-Maliki, the Prime Minister, moves Iraq closer to Iran.  The recent elections saw a marked escalation of violence between Sunnis and Shias as the Sunnis resent the control of power by the Shia.  The clear alliance with Iran, and its support for President Assad in Syria, has caused great strain between Iraq and the United States.  If Assad does manage to hold on, it will be a major victory for the Iranian led coalitions within the region.