The deluge of commentary about the firing of Comey from the FBI makes careful analysis difficult–there is too much to process. But some things seem to be clear.
1. The stated reason for Comey’s dismissal is not credible. The argument that because Comey bungled the Clinton investigation in July and October of 2016 has nothing to do with a dismissal in May of 2017. If President Trump truly believed that the Clinton investigation was not handled properly, then he should have fired Comey on the day he was inaugurated. It may be the case that Mr. Trump had been thinking about the dismissal for some time, but previous comments by Mr. Trump and Sean Spicer belie that argument. Moreover, the letter from Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein that indicated concerns about Mr. Comey was dated 9 May 2017, the same day that Mr. Comey was fired–timing that suggests that the decision was precipitous.
3. The “Saturday Night Massacre” parallel I suggested yesterday is, at this time, inappropriate. In 1973, Archibald Cox was a Special Prosecutor and his firing essentially ended the investigation of President Nixon. The firing of Mr. Comey does not necessarily end the FBI investigation of Mr. Trump. If Mr. Trump appoints someone to the FBI that will likely end the FBI (like Rudy Guiliani or Chris Christie), then the Saturday Night Massacre analogy might kick in.
4. We should think carefully about what such an abrupt dismissal does on a very human level. On the one hand, such dismissals sometimes intimidate others in the organization–there are likely some in the FBI who will now think twice before aggressively investigating Mr. Trump. Perversely, this factor can encourage some in the FBI to more actively discourage the investigation to curry favor with the Administration. The reputation of the FBI is superb and I expect most agents to be completely professional. However, we do know that there were some agents in the New York City office who were leaking unfavorable information about Ms. Clinton to Rudy Guiliani in the presidential election. There are genuine reasons to think that the FBI may not now be able to conduct an honest investigation.
My outrage at Mr. Comey’s dismissal remains. But my outrage at having to parse through such disingenuous and palpably false explanations has grown. As citizens, we should not be treated like we are incapable of assessing self-interested lying. The refusal of some of the Republican leaders in Congress to treat this episode with the seriousness it deserves is criminal. They are traitors to the Republic.
Basuki Tjahaja Purnama was convicted of blasphemy in Indonesia. Purnama was running for re-election as Governor of Jakarta in 2016 when he gave a speech indicating that some Muslims were making false statements that suggested that Muslims could not vote for a non-Muslim. His conviction undermines those in Indonesia who believe that the government should be secular and not bound to religious law. Indonesia’s constitution recognizes six officials religions. Interestingly, Irish police are investigating comedian Stephen Fry for blasphemy as well. Fry made this comment in an interview: “The god who created this universe, if it was created by God, is quite clearly a maniac, utter maniac. Totally selfish.” It is unlikely, however, that Fry will be prosecuted, let alone convicted and imprisoned.
Basuki Tjahaja Purnama
A new study indicates that the target of the Paris Climate Agreements–to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.5°C–may be reached in just nine years from now. The research suggests that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a natural climate variation, may have actually repressed the increase in temperatures during the first decade of the 21st century. The research indicates that if the IPO follows this variation and gets warmer as usual, then temperatures could rise very quickly. According to the report:
“It is therefore possible that a negative phase of the IPO since the turn of the century has cushioned the impacts of global warming on extreme events, such as heatwaves.
“A turnaround of the IPO to its positive phase could initiate a period of accelerated warming over the next one or two decades.
“This would likely lead to the Paris target of 1.5C being surpassed within the next decade.”
I am still processing the news that President Trump has fired the Director of the FBI, James Comey. My only reference point for the firing of someone investigating criminal activity by the US President is the infamous “Saturday Night Massacre” in 1973 during the Nixon Administration. I will wait for more information and more time to think about what has happened. But right now I believe that this act is corruption of the highest order and, like I did in 1973, I fear for the Republic.
South Koreans have elected Moon Jae-in as their next president, giving him 41% of the national vote. The election comes after the impeachment of the former President Park for corruption. The election marks a rather dramatic change in South Korean policy. Mr. Moon was a strong advocate of human rights during some of the more authoritarian periods of South Korean politics and has long favored opening contacts with North Korea. His election will pose serious problems for US President Trump and his preferred hard-line toward North Korea. The Economist has a great article on the current state of South Korean politics.
Moon Jae-in
The Trump Administration has decided to arm Kurdish rebels with heavy weapons in the fight to retake the Syrian city of Raqqa from the control of Daesh (the Islamic State). The decision has angered Turkey which regards the Syrian Kurds as allied with the Kurdish Workers’ Party, an organization it considers a terrorist organization, a designation also shared by the US. We will have to see if Turkey decides to deny the US the use of the air base at Incirlik.
Many liberals have breathed a sigh of relief after the election of Emmanuel Macron in France. And there are good reasons to be relieved, particularly after the strong of elections in Europe that have repudiated populist rhetoric. Liberals, however, should not rest easy. The situations in the US, Poland and Hungary remain difficult and Macron himself was elected as a candidate who did not represent “politics as usual”. Macron leads a very divided country with a failing economy and the French were captivated by Macron’s lack of baggage. But he still has to deliver the goods, and if he fails to revive the French economy, the populists will be back stronger than ever. As The Economist puts it:
“Once the victory celebrations on election night subside, Mr Macron will need to find a way to speak to the one-third who rejected him. Many of these angry voters are from small towns and rural parts that have lost jobs, factories and services, and see no benign side to globalisation. Some backed Mr Macron only to keep out Ms Le Pen. Others abstained or left their ballots blank, dismayed by the choice between what some called “cholera or the plague”: global finance or xenophobic nationalism. Ms Le Pen may be disappointed with her result, but she still set an FN record, nearly doubling the score her father achieved. Her party, and populism, will continue to weigh on French politics.”
The Washington Post is reporting that the Trump Administration is considering ramping up US military participation in Afghanistan. According to the Post: “The plan envisions an increase of at least 3,000 U.S. troops to an existing force of about 8,400. The U.S. force would also be bolstered by requests for matching troops from NATO nations.” At one point the US had 100,000 troops in Afghanistan and that number did not stabilize the security situation in the country. There is no question that the situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating, but it is hard to fathom how revisiting a military solution to that problem offers any hope of stability.
The French election had a decisive outcome: Emmanuel Macron won the second round with 65% of the national vote. Marine Le Pen garnered 35% of the vote, slightly less than the polls had predicted. Macron chose the anthem of the European Union, Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy”, as the music prior to his victory speech in front of the Louvre. The selection was a clear statement of his commitment to the European Union, a sentiment that seems to be shared by most French. For her part, Marine Le Pen gave a concession speech that clearly indicated that she was committed to opposing Macron. It is likely that her National Front Party will go through a makeover to gain control of the Parliament in the upcoming elections. Le Pen’s defeat is consistent with the defeat of the right-wing parties in Austria and the Netherlands earlier this year. Now attention turns to the upcoming elections in Germany and Italy.
Emmanuel Macron
82 of the around 276 Chibok school girls who were kidnapped by Boko Haram in Nigeria in 2014 have been returned to Nigerian authorities. The release was the result of intense negotiations between the rebel group and the Red Cross. The group will likely join 21 girls previously released and who are in Ajuba receiving counseling. None of the freed children have been yet returned to their families. The fate of the other children is unknown, but some have been forced to carry out bombing missions for the rebels. The Chibok victims are only the most well-known of the people kidnapped by Boko Haram: there are thousands of others who are less well-publicized.
Tomorrow the second round of the French presidential election will be held. The two candidates are Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right National Front Party, and Emmanuel Macron, a relative newcomer and the candidate of an independent party, En Marche. Macron is young (39), a former banker, and politically inexperienced, but he is also the leading candidate right now. Macron is the beneficiary of the collapse of the Socialist Party, led by Hamon, and the smell of scandal surrounding the center-right, led by Fillon. Those in Europe who support the European Union hope that the French follow the Austrians and the Dutch in repudiating the anti-EU, anti-globalization sentiment in Europe.
Syria’s Kurds have been instrumental in the battle against Daesh (the Islamic State) in the Syrian city of Raqqa. They announced that they intend to push on to take territory to the west until Kurdish control extends to the Mediterranean Sea as a reward for working so effectively against Daesh. Those aspirations conflict strongly with Turkish interests and place the US, which is allied with both Turkey and the Kurds, in a very difficult diplomatic position. Presumably the territory would be controlled by the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), an amalgam of different groups opposed to Daesh and Syrian President Assad, and suggests that strong consideration is being given to a carve-up of Syria as a solution to the civil war. Whether the Arabs and Kurds can live together, and whether the US and Russia can agree on the terms by which Assad can remain in power of a truncated state, remains to be seen.
Areas with Kurdish Populations
It is the 135th anniversary of the passage of the Chinese Exclusion Act. The law “prohibited all immigration to the U.S. by Chinese laborers” and “was one of the first major U.S. policies that banned a group of people on the basis on race.” The act was passed in response to the number of Chinese immigrants who came to the US–some voluntarily, many not voluntarily–to work on the railroads. The law was not fully repealed until 1965, but the echoes of its roots in American culture resonate strongly today.
The US continues to expand its active military operations around the world. A US Navy SEAL was killed in a special operation in Somalia as the US supported the Somalian army in a firefight against al-Shabab militants. The death follows similar patterns in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, to say nothing of the increased US activities in Iraq. It appears as if US military commanders in the field are being given considerable latitude to decide to deploy US soldiers in hostile engagements, a sharp departure from the more cautious approach of the Obama administration. Ever since the disastrous military operation in 1993 that led to the downing of a Blackhawk helicopter and the deaths of 18 soldiers, the US has been reluctant to get involved more deeply in the country. Given the challenges facing the Somalian government, which include a damaging drought and attendant starvation, it is not clear what such military operations hope to accomplish.
Venezuelan President Maduro has called for a constitutional convention to rewrite the country’s constitution. His opponents see the move as one designed to destroy permanently Venezuelan democracy. In the last month 35 people have died in the protests against Maduro and there is no sign that either side is willing to make any concessions to restore peace. The decision to change the constitution will undoubtedly fail to restore order. The outside world, including the US, is trying to establish ways to bring in humanitarian aid to the beleaguered Venezuelan people.
Cinco de Mayo is a very strange holiday. It marks the defeat of a French army by Mexican forces in Pueblo, Mexico in 1862. The French army had invaded Mexico to force Mexico to repay its debts to European investors (some things never change), but a badly outnumbered Mexico army defeated the invaders. That outcome is a legitimate reason for a holiday, but the date is not a big one in Mexico (its independence day–the equivalent of America’s 4th of July–is 16 September 1810). But the French actually continued on after the battle of Pueblo and occupied Mexico until 1867. Americans, for a variety of reasons, have appropriated the holiday for their own reasons, in much the same way they appropriated St. Patrick’s Day.
Today is the 47th anniversary of the shootings at the anti-Vietnam War protests at Kent State in Ohio and, 10 days later, at Jackson State in Mississippi. For those of us who lived through that experience, it was truly a defining moment. When the state brings military force to bear against its own citizens, there is a genuine question about the legitimacy of the state. The shootings brought the Vietnam War home. We knew the war had been lost in the Tet offensive; the shootings on 4 and 14 May showed us what else we had lost.
“The richest 1% now have more wealth than the rest of the world combined. Power and privilege is being used to skew the economic system to increase the gap between the richest and the rest. A global network of tax havens further enables the richest individuals to hide $7.6 trillion.”
“An Economy for the 1%, shows that the wealth of the poorest half of the world’s population – that’s 3.6 billion people – has fallen by a trillion dollars since 2010. This 38 per cent drop has occurred despite the global population increasing by around 400 million people during that period. Meanwhile the wealth of the richest 62 has increased by more than half a trillion dollars to $1.76tr. Just nine of the ’62’ are women.
This concentration of wealth affects poor people in all regions of the world. The situation in Africa, for example, is dire. According to The Guardian:
“The charity said as much as 30% of all African financial wealth was thought to be held offshore. The estimated loss of $14bn in tax revenues would be enough to pay for healthcare for mothers and children that could save 4 million children’s lives a year and employ enough teachers to get every African child into school.
As the US cuts the budget for the Environmental Protection Agency and ponders whether to leave the Paris Agreement on climate Change, the evidence continues to mount that environmental degradation is occurring at a rate which jeopardizes the future. The Global Footprint Network is a non-profit organization that analyzes the relationship between resource consumption and resource availability across the planet. Its most recent study concludes that “As of 2013, the world’s population would need 1.7 Earths to support its demands on renewable natural resources”. The countries with the largest ecological deficit are China, the US, India, Japan, and Germany.
Cartographer John Nelson has created composite maps of the earth at night-time. He took NASA’s night lights maps of 2012 and 2016 and compared areas where the light had increased and areas where the light had decreased. He colored the areas of increased lights blue and the areas of decreased lights pink. The changes are, in some cases, dramatic. For example, the composite map of the Middle East clearly shows the devastation in Syria as the war has destroyed many of the power plants which supplied electricity for the night lights. The same is true for Yemen. But Iraq shows signs of recovering from its war in the south, although Daesh (the Islamic State) continues to wreak havoc in the northern parts of the country. And clearly Israel is doing quite well. The maps of India are also quite dramatic. I recommend the site.
The Arctic Council has released its Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) assessment for 2017. The report has an urgent tone as recent data suggest that previous understandings of climate change in the Arctic significantly underestimate the rate of change in the region. The report singles out three key findings:
• The Arctic Ocean could be largely free of sea ice in summer as early as the late 2030s, only two decades from now.
• The recent recognition of additional melt processes affecting Arctic and Antarctic glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets suggests that low-end projections of global sea-level rise made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are underestimated.
• Changes in the Arctic may be affecting weather in mid-latitudes, even influencing the Southeast Asian monsoon.
A summary of the report in Scientific American details how seriously the issue has been underestimated:
“The report increases projections for global sea-level rise, which takes into account all sources of melting including the Arctic. Their new minimum estimates are now almost double those issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 for some emissions scenarios. In fact, the latest calculations suggest that the IPCC’s middle estimates for sea-level rise should now be considered minimum estimates.”
Great Britain and the European Union are tussling over the terms of Britain’s exit. Since the Union has a common budget and maintains a huge bureaucracy of which Britain was a part, there are sunk costs that the EU would like to recover. But calculating those costs is incredibly difficult. Initially, the estimates were that Britain would have to pay about €60 billion, but there are now estimates of about €100 billion. The escalating costs suggest that the negotiations over Brexit will likely be nasty and difficult. It is not a good sign for the future of the Union.
“What merits a serious attention is that such military game is underway when Trump and other U.S. warmongers are crying out for making a preemptive nuclear strike at the DPRK day after day.
“The reckless military provocation is pushing the situation on the Korean peninsula closer to the brink of nuclear war.
“The army of the DPRK is keenly watching the military movement of the U.S. imperialists, fully ready to react to all forms of war they will opt for with a powerful nuclear treasured sword for self-defence.
The situation became a little muddier after US President Trump said that he would be “honored” to meet with North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, “under the right circumstances”. The US has never recognized the country and what circumstances would justify such a meeting are difficult to imagine. The growing war drumbeat is disconcerting, and we should be using our imagination to figure out a way out of this impasse. One possibility, not discussed by many in the US at all, is for the US to pull entirely out of South Korea. Such a move would be difficult given the history of the US-South Korean alliance, but it is a policy that might be the solution to the crisis.
“The public overall is about evenly divided over which has more to do with why a person is rich: 45% say it is because he or she worked harder than most people, while 43% say it is because they had more advantages in life than others, according to a survey conducted April 5-11 among 1,501 U.S. adults. Opinion has shifted modestly on this question: In both 2015 and 2014, more attributed a person’s wealth to greater advantages than to a stronger work ethic.”
Interestingly, there is a sharp division on the answer to this question between Republicans and Democrats.
There are also some very interesting differences because of income and gender.
After 6 months of haggling, Greece and elements of the European Union have reached an agreement for the release of funds to allow Greece to repay 7.5 billion euros of debt that comes due in July. In return for this money, Greece has promised to reduce pensions even more and to lower the threshold for not paying taxes in Greece. The terms are onerous, but in the absence of the 7.5 billion euro, Greece would be forced to default on its debt. A default would likely bring several international banks to their knees. The Greeks are hoping that by agreeing to these terms a certain percentage of their debt will be “forgiven”, a concession that the IMF believes is necessary since Greece currently owes 179% of its GDP, an amount impossible to repay. I fear that the Greeks will be sorely disappointed.
Jonathan Luther “Casey” Jones was killed on 30 April 1900 when he died in a train wreck. He was the engineer on a train that left Memphis, Tennessee, 75 minutes behind schedule and arrived at its destination, Vaughn, Mississippi, only 2 minutes late. Unfortunately, when he arrived at his destination he was told to go on a track upon which there was an idled (and empty) train. Because of a curve and fog, Jones only saw the train too late. He told his fireman to jump off the train, but he stayed on the train, reversed his throttle and slammed on his airbrakes, thereby saving all the passengers on his train. Legend has that when his body was pulled from the wreckage (he was the only fatality) his hands were still clutching the whistle and the brakes.
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