World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

I am on vacation.  The blog will resume on 29 May.

A new study by a Stanford University economist is rattling the transportation and energy sectors.  Professor Tony Seba is predicting that within eight years petroleum powered vehicles will begin to completely disappear.  According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writing for The Telegraph:

“The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.”

I suspect that eight years is hyperbole, but the end of gasoline-powered vehicles is in sight.

In 1904, many of the peoples of what is now called Namibia rose up against their German colonizers.  According to the Economist: “Historians estimate that 80% of the Herero lost their lives; about half of the Nama died after launching their own revolt. It was the 20th century’s first genocide.”  The Namibians have tried to sue the Germans for reparations, but their efforts have failed.  Nonetheless, efforts to obtain some recompense continue.   Germany has given a great deal of money to Holocaust victims; the US has given money to the Japanese and Japanese-Americans who were unjustly interned during World War II; and Great Britain has offered assistance to the Kenyans who were brutalized during the period of British rule.

The US has continued to waive sanctions against Iran, signaling that it believes that Iran has adhered to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (commonly known as the Iran nuclear agreement).  During the campaign, candidate Trump called the agreement the “worst deal ever” and promised to scrap the agreement.  Nonetheless, the US imposed additional sanctions on Iran for its continuing work on missile programs which are not part of the agreement.  According to Reuters: “Separately, the Treasury Department said it had sanctioned two senior Iranian defense officials, an Iranian company, a Chinese man and three Chinese companies for supporting Iran’s ballistic missile program.”  The decision comes just before the critical Iranian election on 19 May.

The media is obsessing over President Trump’s leak of classified material to the Russians. But much of the discussion focuses on the domestic impact of the event.  The true significance of the disclosure is the effect it will have on US relations with its allies.  The media is reporting that Israel was the source of the information about Daesh’s (the Islamic State) ability to place bombs in laptop computers.  The US-Israeli intelligence relationship is unique and it is safe to say that the US would know precious little about the Middle East without the Israelis.  Reportedly the Israelis are furious about Trump’s disclosure, largely because they are convinced that Russia will share the information with the Iranians.  The Israelis will likely be far less cooperative in the immediate future and the US will be flying blind in its Middle East policies.

Turkish President Erdogan met with US President Trump today on the eve of Mr. Trump’s foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Vatican, Brussels, and Sicily.  US-Turkish relations are quite strained, but Mr. Trump did call President Erdogan to congratulate him when he won the Turkish referendum (unlike other NATO allies) that gave the Turkish President considerably enhanced powers.  It is likely they spoke about the US decision to arm Kurdish rebels in Syria and whether the US favors greater Kurdish autonomy.  Erdogan also wants the US to extradite the dissident cleric, Fethullah Gulen, who was once an Erdogan ally but is now a fierce enemy.

Donald Trump’s visit to the G7 summit will be an interesting experience.  The summit is being held at the beautiful Sicilian village of Taormina which is not well suited to modern security concerns.  The roads are too narrow for President Trump’s 30-vehicle entourage.  Indeed, the road from the helipad to the site of the summit is only 90 meters long while each of those vehicles are about 3 meters long.  There will be no way for those vehicles to turn around if an emergency escape is necessary.  Mr. Trump will not be staying at the hotel where the other 6 leaders are staying, but will be sleeping at a US airbase on Sicily which will require a helicopter trip to the hotel.  But the village of Taormina is close to Mt. Etna which is currently erupting and there are concerns that the helicopter might be hit by flying debris and ash.

Taormina

Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003 and the loss of Sunni dominance in that country, many analysts have noted that Shia Muslims, led by Iran, have been increasing their power in the Middle East.  The narrative overemphasizes the Sunni-Shia differences among the people in the region, but there is an undeniable link between political power and the dominance of one of these interpretations of Islam. Lorenzo Kamel has written an essay on how this dynamic plays out in contemporary Middle Eastern politics.  Interestingly, Kamel points out how the Sunni dominance in some of these polities has relied very heavily on Western dominance which is declining in importance in the region.

The Washington Post is reporting President Trump disclosed classified information of a highly sensitive nature that to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak in an Oval Office meeting.  The information relates to the new policy barring electronic devices on air flights from certain Middle Eastern countries to the US which is rumored to be possibly extended to all transatlantic flights. According to the Post:

“The information the president relayed had been provided by a U.S. partner through an intelligence-sharing arrangement considered so sensitive that details have been withheld from allies and tightly restricted even within the U.S. government, officials said.

“The partner had not given the United States permission to share the material with Russia, and officials said Trump’s decision to do so endangers cooperation from an ally that has access to the inner workings of the Islamic State. After Trump’s meeting, senior White House officials took steps to contain the damage, placing calls to the CIA and the National Security Agency.

”This is code-word information,’ said a U.S. official familiar with the matter, using terminology that refers to one of the highest classification levels used by American spy agencies. Trump ‘revealed more information to the Russian ambassador than we have shared with our own allies.’”

President Trump’s National Security Advisor, H.R. McMaster denied the report:

 “The story that came out tonight as reported is false.  The president the foreign minister reviewed a range of common threats to our two countries, including threats to civil aviation.

 “At no time, at no time were intelligence sources or methods discussed.  And the president did not disclose any military operations that were not already publicly known.

“Two other senior officials who were present, including the Secretary of State, remembered the meeting the same way and have said so.  Their on-the-record accounts should outweigh those of anonymous sources.

 “I was in the room.  It didn’t happen.”

Note that the McMaster denial only relates to “intelligence courses or methods” and “military operations”.  It does not deny that intelligence information was shared.  McMaster also refused to take any questions from the press about the denial.

It is safe to say that if this report is true it represents a very serious lapse of judgment.  Very few countries will choose to share information with the US.  With this episode, as well as the early episode when President Trump was photographed sharing classified information on the North Korean nuclear program with Japanese Prime Minister Abe at a open dinner table at Mar-a-Lago, there are probably reasons to doubt that President Trump can be trusted.

If true, this report makes the fury over former Secretary of State Clinton’s emails completely bogus.  President Trump’s disregard for security classifications is perhaps treasonous.

Some time ago, Russia, Turkey, and Iran reached an agreement to create “safe zones” within Syria in order to reduce the number of civilian casualties in the civil war.  Safe zones do not have a distinguished record in peacekeeping:  similar safe zones in the civil war in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s simply created killing zones for combatants who had no reluctance to kill non-combatants.  Interestingly, the Russians are trying to get the US involved in the process which would mean that the US and Iran would have to agree formally to cooperate in Syria.  It is not clear that either side would wish to make such a public statement.

The IMF has a blog post on declining trust in the US and its relationship to income inequality.  The IMF has found that “[I]n surveys over the past 40 years, the share of Americans who say that most people can be trusted has fallen to 33 percent from about 50 percent. The erosion of trust coincides with widening disparities in incomes”.  In an earlier report, the IMF found that:

“Moreover, the impact of inequality on trust and social capital in the United States is driven largely by rising wage differences at the bottom of the earnings distribution. However, inequality does not appear to foster a greater demand for redistribution. So policies that seek to restore trust by reducing market wage dispersion before taking into account taxes and benefits—regarding the minimum wage or collective bargaining, for example—appear more promising than redistribution in the form of more progressive income tax or increased social spending. In other words, a quality job with dignity and a decent salary means more than just a good income.”

Stimulating the economy for all income groups seems to be the best strategy for restoring trust.

China has been working on an incredibly ambitious project called “One Belt, One Road”.  It is an attempt to revive the old silk trading route in (both land and maritime) order to unite the economies of Eurasia. Starting on Sunday 29 countries (and representatives from many other countries) will meet in Beijing to discuss the project.  While there are benefits for many countries in the project, it is also clear that some countries, particularly India, are quite leery of the power ambitions of China the project represents.

The Pew Research Center has conducted a poll among Orthodox and Catholic Christians in East and Central Europe and the results indicate that religion is a major factor in attitudes of those citizens toward Russia.  Overwhelmingly, Orthodox Christians look to Russia as not only the protector of the faith, but also as the legitimate power in the region.  The results are interesting because there is also a strong feeling among many fundamental Christians in the US toward the moral positions of the Orthodox Church in Russia on issues such as homosexuality.  In many respects, Trump’s supporters in the US are favorably disposed to the role of the Orthodox Church in Russian affairs and are thus less concerned about Trump’s seeming affection for Russia.

The election of Emmanuel Macron as President of France was hailed as a repudiation of the right policies of his opponent, Marine Le Pen of the National Front.  The percentage of votes won by Macron (68%) was certainly decisive.  But there is another aspect of the election which deserves notice: the number of people who abstain or submitted blank ballots was huge.  According to the Washington Post:

“….roughly 15.5 million renegades….abstained or voided their ballots. The number amounts to a third of registered voters — staggering by French standards — who wanted no part in choosing between Macron, an independent centrist who will become France’s youngest head of state since Napoleon, and Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front.

“More people abstained than voted for Le Pen, who won about 10.6 million votes, her party’s best performance in a presidential election. The number of blank and voided ballots was a record for France’s Fifth Republic, founded in 1958.”

The disillusionment of the French people with the political process is itself a serious political problem which will complicate Macron’s efforts to govern.

The deluge of commentary about the firing of Comey from the FBI makes careful analysis difficult–there is too much to process.  But some things seem to be clear.

1. The stated reason for Comey’s dismissal is not credible.  The argument that because Comey bungled the Clinton investigation in July and October of 2016 has nothing to do with a dismissal in May of 2017.  If President Trump truly believed that the Clinton investigation was not handled properly, then he should have fired Comey on the day he was inaugurated.  It may be the case that Mr. Trump had been thinking about the dismissal for some time, but previous comments by Mr. Trump and Sean Spicer belie that argument.  Moreover, the letter from Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein that indicated concerns about Mr. Comey was dated 9 May 2017, the same day that Mr. Comey was fired–timing that suggests that the decision was precipitous.

2.  The dismissal in May of 2017 is more likely associated with these events:  a) the subpoenas issued by a grand jury into the activities of fired National Security Adviser, General Flynn; b) the growing fear that Flynn is seeking immunity and will likely give evidence that might incriminate Mr. Trump; c) the news that Mr. Comey was seeking additional resources for the Trump-Russia investigation indication that the investigation was deepening; d) the evidence indicating that Mr Spicer and his office were caught completely unaware of the decision; and e) the request by the Senate Intelligence Committee to the Treasury Department for Mr. Trump’s financial records.

3.  The “Saturday Night Massacre” parallel I suggested yesterday is, at this time, inappropriate.  In 1973, Archibald Cox was a Special Prosecutor and his firing essentially ended the investigation of President Nixon.  The firing of Mr. Comey does not necessarily end the FBI  investigation of Mr. Trump.  If Mr. Trump appoints someone to the FBI that will likely end the FBI (like Rudy Guiliani or Chris Christie), then the Saturday Night Massacre analogy might kick in.

4.  We should think carefully about what such an abrupt dismissal does on a very human level.  On the one hand, such dismissals sometimes intimidate others in the organization–there are likely some in the FBI who will now think twice before aggressively investigating Mr. Trump.  Perversely, this factor can encourage some in the FBI to more actively discourage the investigation to curry favor with the Administration.  The reputation of the FBI is superb and I expect most agents to be completely professional.  However, we do know that there were some agents in the New York City office who were leaking unfavorable information about Ms. Clinton to Rudy Guiliani in the presidential election.  There are genuine reasons to think that the FBI may not now be able to conduct an honest investigation.

My outrage at Mr. Comey’s dismissal remains.  But my outrage at having to parse through such disingenuous and palpably false explanations has grown.  As citizens, we should not be treated like we are incapable of assessing self-interested lying.  The refusal of some of the Republican leaders in Congress to treat this episode with the seriousness it deserves is criminal.  They are traitors to the Republic.

Basuki Tjahaja Purnama was convicted of blasphemy in Indonesia.  Purnama was running for re-election as Governor of Jakarta in 2016 when he gave a speech indicating that some Muslims were making false statements that suggested that Muslims could not vote for a non-Muslim.  His conviction undermines those in Indonesia who believe that the government should be secular and not bound to religious law.   Indonesia’s constitution recognizes six officials religions.  Interestingly, Irish police are investigating comedian Stephen Fry for blasphemy as well.  Fry made this comment in an interview: “The god who created this universe, if it was created by God, is quite clearly a maniac, utter maniac. Totally selfish.”  It is unlikely, however, that Fry will be prosecuted, let alone convicted and imprisoned.

Basuki Tjahaja Purnama

A new study indicates that the target of the Paris Climate Agreements–to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.5°C–may be reached in just nine years from now.  The research suggests that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a natural climate variation, may have actually repressed the increase in temperatures during the first decade of the 21st century.  The research indicates that if the IPO follows this variation and gets warmer as usual, then temperatures could rise very quickly.  According to the report:

“It is therefore possible that a negative phase of the IPO since the turn of the century has cushioned the impacts of global warming on extreme events, such as heatwaves.

“A turnaround of the IPO to its positive phase could initiate a period of accelerated warming over the next one or two decades.

“This would likely lead to the Paris target of 1.5C being surpassed within the next decade.”

I am still processing the news that President Trump has fired the Director of the FBI, James Comey.  My only reference point for the firing of someone investigating criminal activity by the US President is the infamous “Saturday Night Massacre” in 1973 during the Nixon Administration.  I will wait for more information and more time to think about what has happened.  But right now I believe that this act is corruption of the highest order and, like I did in 1973, I fear for the Republic.

South Koreans have elected Moon Jae-in as their next president, giving him 41% of the national vote.  The election comes after the impeachment of the former President Park for corruption.  The election marks a rather dramatic change in South Korean policy.  Mr. Moon was a strong advocate of human rights during some of the more authoritarian periods of South Korean politics and has long favored opening contacts with North Korea.  His election will pose serious problems for US President Trump and his preferred hard-line toward North Korea.  The Economist has a great article on the current state of South Korean politics.

Moon Jae-in

The Trump Administration has decided to arm Kurdish rebels with heavy weapons in the fight to retake the Syrian city of Raqqa from the control of Daesh (the Islamic State).  The decision has angered Turkey which regards the Syrian Kurds as allied with the Kurdish Workers’ Party, an organization it considers a terrorist organization, a designation also shared by the US. We will have to see if Turkey decides to deny the US the use of the air base at Incirlik.

Many liberals have breathed a sigh of relief after the election of Emmanuel Macron in France.  And there are good reasons to be relieved, particularly after the strong of elections in Europe that have repudiated populist rhetoric.  Liberals, however, should not rest easy.  The situations in the US, Poland and Hungary remain difficult and Macron himself was elected as a candidate who did not represent “politics as usual”. Macron leads a very divided country with a failing economy and the French were captivated by Macron’s lack of baggage.  But he still has to deliver the goods, and if he fails to revive the French economy, the populists will be back stronger than ever.  As The Economist puts it:

“Once the victory celebrations on election night subside, Mr Macron will need to find a way to speak to the one-third who rejected him. Many of these angry voters are from small towns and rural parts that have lost jobs, factories and services, and see no benign side to globalisation. Some backed Mr Macron only to keep out Ms Le Pen. Others abstained or left their ballots blank, dismayed by the choice between what some called “cholera or the plague”: global finance or xenophobic nationalism. Ms Le Pen may be disappointed with her result, but she still set an FN record, nearly doubling the score her father achieved. Her party, and populism, will continue to weigh on French politics.”

The Washington Post is reporting that the Trump Administration is considering ramping up US military participation in Afghanistan.  According to the Post: “The plan envisions an increase of at least 3,000 U.S. troops to an existing force of about 8,400. The U.S. force would also be bolstered by requests for matching troops from NATO nations.”  At one point the US had 100,000 troops in Afghanistan and that number did not stabilize the security situation in the country.  There is no question that the situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating, but it is hard to fathom how revisiting a military solution to that problem offers any hope of stability.

The French election had a decisive outcome:  Emmanuel Macron won the second round with 65% of the national vote.  Marine Le Pen garnered 35% of the vote, slightly less than the polls had predicted.  Macron chose the anthem of the European Union, Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy”, as the music prior to his victory speech in front of the Louvre.  The selection was a clear statement of his commitment to the European Union, a sentiment that seems to be shared by most French.  For her part, Marine Le Pen gave a concession speech that clearly indicated that she was committed to opposing Macron.  It is likely that her National Front Party will go through a makeover to gain control of the Parliament in the upcoming elections.  Le Pen’s defeat is consistent with the defeat of the right-wing parties in Austria and the Netherlands earlier this year. Now attention turns to the upcoming elections in Germany and Italy.

Emmanuel Macron

82 of the around 276 Chibok school girls who were kidnapped by Boko Haram in Nigeria in 2014 have been returned to Nigerian authorities.  The release was the result of intense negotiations between the rebel group and the Red Cross.  The group will likely join 21 girls previously released and who are in Ajuba receiving counseling.  None of the freed children have been yet returned to their families.  The fate of the other children is unknown, but some have been forced to carry out bombing missions for the rebels.  The Chibok victims are only the most well-known of the people kidnapped by Boko Haram:  there are thousands of others who are less well-publicized.