For much of the world, 1 May is the day to celebrate Labor, and is known as International Workers’ Day. The Second International (an organization uniting 20 socialist and communist parties in Europe) selected the day to honor those workers killed in the Haymarket Massacre which occurred in Chicago on 4 May 1886. The initial goal of a work stoppage on the first of May was to support an 8-hour working day. The day was institutionalized because there were a host of other issues of great importance to labor that needed to be resolved. The US celebrates Labor Day in September in order to avoid being associated with a holiday espoused by socialists and communists.
South Korean newspapers are articulating great concern over US policy toward North Korea. Trump initially said that South Korea should pay for the anti-missile system (the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense [THAAD]) deployed to protect it from North Korean missiles, only to be later overruled by his National Security Adviser, General McMaster. Several newspapers have accused Mr. Trump of “confusing and contradictory messages” and that “We hope that Trump will be more careful with his words”. South Korea has been an ally of the US since the end of World War II and it is rare for allies to use such negative language about a defense relationship. For its part, North Korea remains intransigent. According to a Reuters report which quotes from a press release by the North Korean Press Agency:
“‘Now that the U.S. is kicking up the overall racket for sanctions and pressure against the DPRK, pursuant to its new DPRK policy called ‘maximum pressure and engagement’, the DPRK will speed up at the maximum pace the measure for bolstering its nuclear deterrence,'” a spokesman for North Korea’s foreign ministry said in a statement carried by its official KCNA news agency.
“‘North Korea’s “measures for bolstering the nuclear force to the maximum will be taken in a consecutive and successive way at any moment and any place decided by its supreme leadership,'” the spokesman said.”
Japanese Izumo Maritime Self-Defense Force helicopter carrier
The US Congress will be debating tax reform during its current session and President Trump has made lowering the corporate income tax one of his highest priorities. The corporate tax rate is 35% which is high among the advanced industrialized countries. But very few companies actually pay that rate because there are so many loopholes and deductions.
It is difficult to determine how corporations as a whole fare under the current tax system since the loopholes and deductions are very idiosyncratic. But there is a widening discrepancy between corporate profits and the overall revenues from the corporate tax which suggests that the tax burden on corporations is not very significant:
The New York Times has a depressing article on how globalization has affected fishing . Many of the advanced industrialized countries in Europe, as well as Japan and China, have developed industrialized deep-sea fishing which involves trawling nets that are literally miles long and scoop up essentially everything that swims. These techniques have depleted the stocks of fish available for everyone else, and the people that suffer the most are local fisherman who cannot compete with the trawlers. There are international laws that allegedly govern overfishing, but they are impossible to enforce and most poor governments lack the means to enforce their legal rights. The effects on poor societies, many in West Africa, have been devastating.
Two years ago, the US pulled most of its soldiers out of Helmand Province in Afghanistan. The pull-out was consistent with President Obama’s desire to limit the US role in what has become its longest war ever (the US invaded Afghanistan in October 2001). Now, however, American troops are returning to Helmand Province as Taliban forces have re-established control over the region. The US troops are expected to support the Afghan army in its fight against the Taliban, but it is hard to imagine what objectives can be realized at this point. Several years ago there were tens of thousands of American troops in Afghanistan and the situation was never stabilized.
On 30 April 1975, the capital of what was then South Vietnam, Saigon, fell under control of North Vietnam, leading to the unification of the once-divided country. Most of the American forces had left the country after the Paris Peace Accords were signed in 1973. The collapse of the South Vietnamese regime in 1975 was complete and very quick, and the country went through a very difficult and painful unification. Many Vietnamese left the country and came to the US.
Evacuees Leave from the Roof of a Building Used by the CIA, Saigon
As the US continues the process of global disengagement, a process gently initiated by President Obama and coarsely accelerated by President Trump, the world economic system has slowly slipped from its moorings within a liberal system. Many states have benefited from that system: in 1950, the world GDP was about $5 trillion; in 2017 it is about $90 trillion. Perhaps the greatest beneficiary of that system has been China which has been restored to its normal status as a great power. Edward Luce, however, raises questions about whether the Chinese are willing to maintain the global economy in a manner which assures continues economic growth.
The harsh rhetoric of both the US and North Korea in recent days has rattled many countries in the region. President Duterte of the Philippines urged “restraint” and China urged “caution”. The rhetoric, however, is less unsettling than the sense that neither the US or North Korea has a sense of how the dispute will unfold. Unfortunately, much of American policy seems predicated on the assumption that Kim Jong-un is irrational. Nothing could be further from the truth. His values may be reprehensible, but it seems clear that it is only the threat of a nuclear attack that is preventing an American invasion right now.
Turkish President Erdogan has clamped down even harder against those he believes are associated with Fethullah Gulen, a former associate and now adamant opponent living in the the US. More police have been fired and more soldiers and government workers have also been let go. Erdogan has also restricted several social media sites including Wikipedia as national security threats. A popular TV dating program has also been banned. Erdogan has apparently decided that there is no possibility of allowing any threats to his absolute control.
The US is deploying troops along the Syrian-Turkish border. The move comes a few days after a Turkish air strike killed about 20 Kurdish fighters in an attack that signals increasing Turkish concerns about the Kurdish interest in establishing a Kurdish state. The US troops will serve as a buffer between Turkish and Kurdish forces, but the deployment also suggests that the US is becoming more involved in the fighting against Daesh (the Islamic State).
There was a general strike in Brazil as millions took to the streets to protest the austerity policies of the government of Michel Temer. The government, which has been wracked by corruption scandals since the impeachment of former President Rousseff, has tried to make changes in labor laws and pension plans that many Brazilians believe are unfair and unwarranted. The strike was the first general strike in Brazil since 1996 and affected 26 Brazilian states.
Scene in Brasilia on Friday morning
The European Union recently conducted a poll: “Around 580,000 respondents in 35 countries were asked the question: Would you actively participate in large-scale uprising against the generation in power if it happened in the next days or months? More than half of 18- to 34-year-olds said yes.” What is very interesting about the poll is that it was taken in the context of a clear decline in voting by that same age cohort. It appears as if democracy no longer seems viable to many young people.
Much of the world’s attention has been fixated on US policy in Syria and North Korea. But there is also a very quiet war going on between Israel and Syria in the background. Israel has attacked several sites in Syria in recent months, targeting weaponry being sent to Hezbollah. Today Israel attacked what it termed a military site near the international airport at Damascus. Intriguingly, there are unconfirmed reports that Israeli pilots have flown F-35s, the US’s most advanced fighter aircraft, to bomb sites in Syria. What makes these reports significant is that, if true, it suggests that the F-35’s stealth capabilities were good enough to elude Russia’s advanced anti-aircraft system, the S-300. Unfortunately, Israel will never confirm these activities publicly so it will be difficult to assess the F-35’s capabilities. We should keep an eye on this situation since Israel is becoming quite concerned about the military strength of Hezbollah.
Macedonia has been without a government since last December. Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski’s party won the election in that month, but it failed to win enough seats in the Parliament to form a government. Yesterday, the Social Democrats and parties supporting the ethnic Albanian minority in Macedonia voted to name a new Speaker of the Parliament, Talat Xhaferi. Gruevski’s supporters stormed the Parliament and a melee broke out. Ethnic Albanians comprise about 25% of Macedonia’s population and they have been demanding that Albanian be recognized as the country’s second language.
Visual Capitalist has a nifty chart on the 50 largest companies by revenue. There are some surprises here, as well as some head-scratchers. I try to keep up to date, but I must admit that Exor and State Grid were mysteries to me. The US firms were far less dominant than I would have expected and the dearth of European companies is a little unexpected.
On Tuesday, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) readings at the Manua Loa Observatory in Hawaii reached 410 parts per million (ppm) a level last reached millions of years ago. When the measurements started in 1958, the levels were 280 ppm and it was only in 2013 that the levels passed 400 ppm. At best, we can only slow the rate of increase–these levels will persist for many years even if CO2 emissions are cut drastically. If unchecked, the levels will reach those of 50 million years ago by the end of the century.
China has launched its first domestically-made aircraft carrier. Its first aircraft carrier was a retrofitted Russian aircraft carrier, and the new one reflects China’s rapid development as a maritime power. The new vessel is designed primarily for coastal and close-shore combat: it is diesel-powered, not nuclear-powered, which limits how long it can stay at sea; it has a ski-lift jump for its aircraft which limits how much fuel and how many weapons each can carry; and it can hold only a relatively small number of aircraft. The Navy Times places the new vessel in context:
“China is believed to be planning to build at least two and possibly as many as four additional carriers, with one of them, the Type 002, reported to be already under construction at a shipyard outside Shanghai. They are expected to be closer in size to the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered 100,000-ton Nimitz class ships, with flat flight decks and catapults to allow planes to launch with more bombs and fuel aboard.”
“According to Chinese reports, the new, as yet unnamed, carrier will carry 24 Shenyang J-15 fighters, based on the Russian Sukhoi Su-33, along with 12 helicopters for anti-submarine warfare, airborne early warning and rescue operations. That compares to 85-90 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters carried by a Nimitz-class carrier.
“As China expands its navy, it is projected to have a total of 265-273 warships, submarines and logistics vessels by 2020, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Naval Analysis. That compares with 275 deployable battle force ships presently in the U.S. Navy, China’s primary rival in the Asia Pacific.
“The U.S. operates 10 aircraft carriers, has 62 destroyers to China’s 32, and 75 submarines to China’s 68. The U.S. Navy has 323,000 personnel to China’s 235,000.”
The vessel represents a fairly constrained view of naval aspirations for China–it should not be viewed as a challenge to US naval power.
Buddhists have been involved in violent attacks against Muslims in Thailand, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. The idea that Buddhists can engage in violent acts strikes many in the West as inconsistent with Buddhism. But Buddhists defend their ideas fiercely and Michael Jerryson, Associate Professor of religious studies in the Department of Philosophy and Religious Studies at Youngstown State University in Ohio, has written a fascinating essay on how many in the West misunderstand the fundamental tenets of this way of life. Jerryson writes:
“Each Buddhist tradition has transformed with the times – and the times are always changing. But there are persistent patterns that keep pace with these changes. Buddhist monks in the early sixth-century China led revolts to defend Buddhism. Today, monks in Thailand, Burma and Sri Lanka continue to fight – violently – for their religion and to call their followers to action. The cycle of violence continues in this final stage of the cycle of time: the Kali Yuga, the Age of Destruction.”
The Pew Research Center has done a study on middle class fortunes in Europe and has found a mixed bag. The US has sesen a steady decline in middle class households from 61% of the population in 1970 to 50% in 2015. The situation in Europe is less uniform:
“The fortunes of the middle classes in Western Europe’s largest economies are moving in opposite directions. From 1991 to 2010, the shares of adults living in middle-income households increased in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, but shrank in Germany, Italy and Spain.”
Foreign Policy magazine has obtained documents which outline President Trump’s budget proposals for foreign assistance. The plans call for a merger of the Agency for International Development into the State Department and for some rather drastic cuts in the levels of foreign assistance to poor countries. The proposal would likely cripple the technical parts of AID. It is not clear that the Congress will go along with these proposals, but, according to the article,
“…..the agency still anticipates that the budget proposal will necessitate eliminating 30 to 35 of its field missions while cutting its regional bureaus by roughly 65 percent. USAID currently operates in about 100 countries.”
The health programs of the AID may be reduced by as much as 25 percent.
The US has slapped tariffs on imports of Canadian lumber. The US accuses of Canada of unfair trading practices because it believes that the price of timber in Canada is artificially low because forest lands are owned by the provinces whereas American timber is grown on privately owned land. The Canadian prices are in fact lower, but that is because Canadians have decided that their forests should not be part of a profit-making enterprise. Such is their sovereign right. Whether that decision should be interpreted as an “unfair” trading practice will likely be determined by the World Trade Organization.
Van Jackson is an analyst who has special expertise on North Korea and he has written an article on how the North Korean theory of deterrence maps onto the theory of deterrence held by US Secretary of Defense Mattis. Unfortunately, there is evidence that both theories rest heavily on demonstration effects which suggests that in a crisis both sides are inclined to use force to show resolve. Given that in the current situation, both the US and North Korea have amassed a lot of weaponry to shoe resolve, this tendency might be a dangerous way to proceed. We are getting conflicting information about China’s attitude toward the US actions. US President Trump has indicated that China is being very helpful. But the Global Times has an article which suggests that the Chinese are quite nervous about the US military build-up near North Korea. According to the article:
“China strongly opposes actions that violate United Nations Security Council resolutions, Xi said, adding that China hopes the parties concerned will exercise restraint and avoid actions that aggravate tensions on the peninsula, the Xinhua News Agency reported.”
The article also reports that North Korea has ordered an evacuation around the area of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, suggesting that it fears an attack on the site. On another curious note, the Trump administration announced that it will hold a full briefing for the entire Senate on the North Korean situation on Wednesday. According to the Washington Post:
“A senior Trump administration official said the meeting with senators will take place in the auditorium at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, the building next to the White House that houses most of the National Security Council. The auditorium will be temporarily turned into a “sensitive compartmented information facility,” or SCIF, which is the term for a room where sensitive national security information can be shared, the official said.”
Obviously, the Trump Administration wishes the briefing to be a “special” event.
World military spending in 2016 accounted for 2.2 per cent of global GDP. Military spending as a share of GDP, was highest in the Middle East (for countries where data is available), with an average of 6.0 per cent of GDP in 2016, while the lowest was in the Americas, with an average of 1.3 per cent of GDP.
Spending in Africa fell by 1.3 per cent in 2016, a second year of decrease after 11 consecutive years of increases. This was mostly due to spending cuts in oil-exporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa (e.g. Angola and South Sudan).
In Asia and Oceania, military expenditure rose by 4.6 per cent in 2016. Spending levels are related to the many tensions in the region such as over territorial rights in the South China Sea.
Military expenditure in Central America and the Caribbean and South America combined decreased by 7.8 per cent to a level not seen since 2007. The fall is largely explained by spending reductions by oil-exporting countries such as Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Brazil’s spending continued to decline as a result of a worsening economic crisis.
Le Pen and Macron have emerged as the top two vote-getters in the first round of the French election. The outcome marks the first time that none of the major French parties has emerged as a winner–the repudiation of politics as usual is obvious in the outcome. But the two are also quite different in their politics. Le Pen’s populism hardly accords with the pro-EU centrism of Macron. Most analysts believe that Macron will win the second round on 7 May and, if that is the case, the outcome will replicate the earlier elections in Austria and the Netherlands where the right-wing parties did not succeed in obtaining majorities.
Macron and Le Pen
Income inequality has important political consequences. In 1970, the US middle class (defined as those families of three with incomes between about $42,000 to $126,000 annually in 2014 dollars) shrank from about 61% in 1970 to about 50% in 2015. This loss of status and security leads to resentment and fear which then become the fodder for politicians. The rise in more authoritarian politics in the world, in the US, Europe, and in Asia) can be traced to this loss of societal position.
Visual Capitalist has a very interesting graphic showing which countries in the world most Americans regard as an “enemy”. The data for the graphic comes from a survey taken by YouGov between January 28 – February 1, 2017. According to that poll, no American regards Madagascar, Paraguay, or Australia as an enemy (1% consider Canada to be an enemy).
The Trump Administration claims to have sent “messages” to the world through the use of military strikes in Syria and Afghanistan. Max Fisher has gone through the research about whether such messages are effective in international relations and has found that there is little evidence to support the proposition that such messages are effective. Using military power to send signals of intend can be effective, but there are a number of conditions that need to be satisfied for the messages to be received effectively. While the claims of the Trump Administration seem to be intuitively persuasive, it is very difficult to tell whether they actually do deter behavior.
The US State Department has certified that Iran has complied with the nuclear agreement, but the day after it had done so, US President Trump repeated his campaign assessment that the agreement was “the worst deal ever” and that he would review the accord. The tension between these assessments is hard to resolve, but a good deal of it is due to adamant hostility to Iran on the part of the US. Paul Pillar worked for the CIA on Middle Eastern affairs and is now a Professor at Georgetown. His analysis of the Trump Administration’s policy toward Iran is enlightening and compelling.
“More notably, this March marks a whopping 627 months in a row of warmer than normal temperatures. If you were born after December 1964, you’ve never experienced a month cooler than average on this planet.”
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