Archive for the ‘World Politics’ Category
I apologize for bringing up the Russian sanctions issue yet again, but the seriousness of the matter explains much of my obsessiveness. Julia Ioffe has written a very insightful essay on the issue for The Atlantic. She summarizes the outcome of the decision of the Trump Administration very succinctly:
“The administration had all the tools and expertise at its disposal, and seemed to be on track to a sensible policy to which Congress had bound it: using a scalpel to go after the specific people who make Putin’s antagonism to the United States possible. Instead, it opted for a blow-up toy sledgehammer that is as blunt as it is comical. Congress had tasked the Trump administration with devising the framework for Russia sanctions, and on Tuesday, by seemingly copying Forbes and the Kremlin phonebook, the Trump administration essentially plagiarized its homework. In the process, the administration made a mess for itself at home. Democrats and Republicans in Congress were furious, and the list again raised another round of questions about why the Trump administration was being so lenient on a regime that stands accused of helping Trump get elected. The Russians, in the meantime, were both angry, mocking, and relieved, yet, according to two sources close to the Russian Foreign Ministry, left the option of retaliating through Iran and North Korea on the table.”
Again, interfering with normal democratic procedures by broadcasting stolen emails and infiltrating social media with false information are, in my opinion, acts of a hostile power that cannot be tolerated and must be addressed. If not, then faith in democracy cannot be sustained.
Ever since the Reagan Administration the US has been trying to develop anti-ballistic missile systems designed to shoot down enemy missiles before they can hit the US homeland. These efforts have cost about $190 billion between 1985 and 2017, and periodically there have been claims of great progress toward an effective system. There was yet another test of one of the systems yesterday over Hawaii and it failed. I suspect that there will never be an effective anti-ballistic missile system because there are too many variables involved in shooting a bullet to shoot down another bullet. The real objective of an anti-ballistic missile system is to create an politically plausible alternative to disarmament and thereby justify the continued existence and development of nuclear weaponry.
Minutes before midnight yesterday, the US Treasury Department released a list of “senior foreign political figures and oligarchs in the Russian Federation, as determined by their closeness to the Russian regime and their net worth”. It was required to do so by the US Congress which passed the “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” (CAATSA). The law was passed to punish these individuals for their support of a government that interfered in the US Presidential election in 2016. Bizarrely, the list is “not a sanctions list, and the inclusion of individuals or entities in this report, its appendices, or its annex does not and in no way should be interpreted to impose sanctions on those individuals or entities”. We are left, therefore, to interpret what this list actually is since it apparently has nothing to do with sanctions.
The Russian response was pretty straightforward. Russian President Putin said simply: “The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on”. He also noted that he was “offended” that his name was not on the list.
The report is a triumph of what George Orwell called “doublespeak”. The message of the Trump Administration is clear: Russia will not be punished even though the evidence is incontrovertible that it endeavored to manipulate the most precious right of democracy–the right to vote. I call this treason.
Today was the deadline for the Trump Administration to announce the list of Russian individuals and institutions that will be sanctioned in accordance with a law the US Congress passed last year. The sanctions are in response to the Russian interference in the US 2016 elections and the law was passed 98-2 in the US Senate. The law is called the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act. However, the Administration has dragged its feet on the sanctions, missing the first deadline of 1 October 2017. According to CNN:
“The administration missed its first deadline on October 1 to issue guidance on which Russian entities in the military and intelligence sectors should be subject to sanctions. The State Department was almost a month late on that — perhaps because Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had eliminated the office that oversees sanctions and moved all that work to the deputy director in his policy planning bureau — but they finally named names on October 26.”
The Administration has the authority to waive today’s deadline, but it would have to publicly certify the waiver. Tonight, the Washington Post is reporting that the sanctions will not be imposed “because the threat itself is acting as a ‘deterrent.'” The decision is a sniveling capitulation to the Russians and further evidence that the Trump Administration is serving the interests of the Kremlin. All Americans should be both alarmed and ashamed.
A Russian jet flew across an American spy plane’s path in international air space over the Black Sea. According to American sources, the Russian jet was just five feet away from the American EP-3, causing the spy plane to end its flight prematurely because of turbulence. As indicated by the photographs below, the two planes are not remotely comparable. There have been many such close encounters in the Black Sea, the Baltic region, and Syria recently. One of these days, the game of chicken will end badly.
Russian Su-27 Jet US EP-3
Paris is currently experiencing severe flooding, not an unusual event in the history of Paris. But new research indicates that climate change will aggravate flooding in Central and Western Europe. According to the new study:
“Damage from floods across Europe is projected to more than double, from a 113% average increase if warming is kept to 1.5°C, to 145% under the 3°C scenario.
“In terms of population affected, the projected increase ranges from 86% to 123%.”
The Local in France has a drone video of the Paris flooding which is quite stunning.
Russia will be holding national elections on 18 March and there seems to be little doubt that current President Putin will win an unprecedented 4th term. But the opposition to Putin refuses to be silenced. His most prominent opponent, Alexei Navalny, has been in many protests against Putin even though he has been barred from running against Mr. Putin. Navalny was arrested yet again today, and the offices of his political party were raided by police. There were protests in more than 100 cities in support of Mr. Navalny, and all the protesters risked the chance of being arrested. Navalny has called for a boycott of the election, but Putin’s popularity in Russia hovers around 80% approval.
Alexei Navalny
US trade actions have begun to alter the trading patterns of its most significant partners. President Trump has made it clear that he wishes to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which was put into place in 1994. The negotiations between the US, Canada, and Mexico have been very difficult and not particularly productive, but Mexico is not waiting for the negotiations to be over to protect its imports of agricultural products. According to Reuters:
“The United States remains the dominant grain supplier to Mexico. Yet Mexico imported 583,000 metric tonnes of corn from Brazil in 2017, a 980 percent jump from the previous year, according to Mexican government trade data.
“Mexican imports of U.S. soybean meal, used to feed chickens and livestock, fell 29 percent in the first 11 months of 2017, compared with the same period the previous year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.”
The shifts will undoubtedly affect the income of farmers who were among President Trump’s strongest supporters in 2016.
One of the most difficult issues in world politics is the question of the extent to which human rights are universal. Liberal states assert that human rights are applicable everywhere; others assert that human rights are culturally defined. One such controversy centers around the practice of female genital mutilation. The practice has been condemned and outlawed in most countries, but it still occurs in many places. Kenya outlawed the practice in 2011, but Dr Tatu Kamau, who has held a number of high-level positions at the Ministry of Health, told a high court that Kenya’s 2011 ban on FGM was unconstitutional and discriminated against ‘national heritage’”. It is unlikely that Dr. Kamau’s petition will succeed, but it suggests how difficult it has been to abolish the practice.
We are getting a little more information about the contested phone call between Turkish President Erdogan and US President Trump about Turkish intentions toward the Syrian Kurds around the cities of Afrin and Manbij. It seems as if Turkey intends to push the Syrian Kurds out of Manbij, where 2,000 American soldiers are currently stationed. According to the Voice of America:
“Turkey’s presidency said in a statement that U. S. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster spoke Friday with Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesman for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. McMaster confirmed in the phone conversation that the U.S. would not give weapons to the YPG militia, the statement said. There has been no U.S. confirmation.”
The Turks have pushed into Afrin and if they move toward Manbij they will pretty much control the areas of Syria the Kurds wish to claim as their own. It appears as if the US has abandoned its allies, the Kurds.
Spiegel has an article on wealth distribution in Germany and other European countries, and its results suggest that wealth inequality in Germany is a serious problem. Wealth inequality is difficult to measure–the easier metric is income since those statistics are usually collected by governments as part of its tax structure. Wealth, however, consists of assets that are difficult to track and to assess, such as art, fine wines, houses, cars, and yachts. But the data collected by Spiegel indicates that inequality is growing in Europe and that data is consistent with data form many other countries in the world such as Russia, China, India, and Brazil. According to the article:
“According to DIW (German Institute for Economic Research) calculations, the poorest half of the population in Spain owns just under 12 percent of the country’s total wealth while in France, that number is slightly above 6 percent. In Germany, meanwhile, it is just 2.3 percent. The richest 10 percent of households in France and Spain own less than half of their country’s wealth, respectively. In Germany, that bracket owns close to two-thirds of the nation’s wealth.”
The article has a number of tables and graphs which are quite revealing. Wealth inequality is a serious political problem over time.
Miloš Zeman has been re-elected President of the Czech Republic. Zeman is a strong supporter of Russian President Putin and a sharp critic of immigration and the European Union. Zeman defeated Jiri Drahos who ran as a newcomer, but a strong supporter of the EU. Zeman was also a strong supporter of Prime Minister Andrej Babis who lost a confidence vote in the Parliament which will give Babis a more powerful position in forming a new government. The lurch to the right seems complete in the Czech Republiv despite strong economic growth in recent years.
Miloš Zeman
The US dollar has lost value over the last few weeks and the decline is beginning to worry some analysts. The effects of the decline is to make US exports less expensive and US imports more expensive (the price of oil, which is denominated in terms of the US dollar has been rising as a result–expect higher gasoline prices). The decline is something that one would not have expected given the evidence of sustained growth in the American economy, but it also puts the US economy at a competitive advantage over other countries and those countries are beginning to become quite concerned. When coupled with the recent rise in US tariffs on washing machines and solar panels, there is concern that the US is engaging in a trade war.
China has announced plans to develop sailing routes through the Arctic to take advantage of the polar ice melt caused by global warming. The polar “Silk Road” could cut as many as 20 days off the current 45-48 days needed to ship goods from China to Europe. China released a White Paper outlining its aspirations for the new route, and those plans require a great deal of coordination with other countries whose borders are close to the Arctic Circle. One can access the Chinese White Paper here.
It is far to soon to begin to speculate about how US-Turkish relations will evolve given the clear conflicts between the two over the issue of Syria. The US, however, has not counterbalanced the loss of Turkey as an ally with new relationships in the region. The US relationships with Saudi Arabia and Israel are very strong, but the loss of Turkish support is significant. Turkey, however, has been deepening its relationship with Qatar, Iran, Russia, and China. Some of these new affiliations will be very difficult to sustain–the ties to Iran are very weak and the two states have many conflicting objectives. And after the US decision on Jerusalem, it has very little public support among most of the Arab states in the Middle East. It will take some time before the US recovers its strong position in the region.
The rift between the US and Turkey continues to widen. Turkey has disputed the US description of a telephone conversation between US President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan. The US claims that Mr. Trump asked Erdogan to ease up on the military offensive against the Syrian Kurds, who have been steadfast US allies in the fight against ISIS. The Turks insist that Mr. Trump did not make comments of that sort. The dispute is not merely rhetorical. The US has troops in the area of Syria where Turkey intends to broaden its offensive against the Kurds. It would be tragic if Turkish troops ended up firing on positions where US troops were stationed. Turkish-US relations are clearly at a crossroad.
US Ambassador Bill Richardson has resigned from an international advisory board examining the plight if the Royingha in Myanmar. The Royingha are a Muslim ethnic group who have lived in the Rakhine province of Myanmar for centuries. The population of Myanmar is primarily Buddhist and they regard the Royingha as invaders and as a threat. The Myanmar military has engaged in an offensive of murder, rape, and torture to force the Royingha into Muslim-majority Bangladesh. The Bangladeshis are no longer able to support the influx of refugees so the Royingha have no where to go. The international community has not been able to persuade the Myanmars to stop their policy of ethnic cleansing. The international advisory board was the only international attempt to offer hope to the Royngha but Richardson’s resignation suggests that even that feeble effort was stillborn.
The White House requested a landscape painting, “Landscape with Snow”, by Vincent Van Gogh from New York’s Guggenheim Museum to be hung on a lending basis in the private living quarters. The request was denied, but the Museum offered an alternative: an 18-karat, fully functioning, solid gold toilet entitled “America”. According to the Washington Post “the artist who created the toilet, Maurizio Cattelan, would like to offer it to the White House for a long-term loan.'” Someone has a sense of humor.
“Landscape with Snow” by Vincent Van Gogh
“America” by Maurizio Cattelan
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has started in Davos, Switzerland and it was opened by speeches by Germany’s Chancellor Merkel, French President Macron, and Italy’s Paolo Gentiloni–the leaders of the three largest economies in the Europe. The WEF is often referred to as the “rich” countries club and it features political, cultural, and intellectual liberal elites. The speeches all warned of the dangers of growing nationalism which threatens the rules-based liberal order that fosters interdependence among nations. US President Trump arrives tomorrow and his program of “America First” is a dissonant thread for the Forum. We’ll see how his message is received.
Business Insider has done an excellent job of summarizing the basics of a very arcane article in the journal, International Security, which outlines the feasibility of a “limited” nuclear strike against North Korean nuclear facilities which would minimize civilian casualties. I find the argument totally unpersuasive, but it apparently is the motivation behind a build-up of B-1, B-2, and B-52 bombers on the island of Guam. Of special interest are the B-2 bombers which can deliver a very small, precision-guided nuclear warhead (the B-61) of about 0.3 kilotons to a target with extraordinary accuracy. The accuracy assures the total destruction of the target even though the blast is quite small (by nuclear standards). The maps below show the different fallout rates from the explosions (the shaded areas). The danger is that a belief that such a “small” strike (called a “bloody nose” by those who support such a strike would not precipitate a massive retaliation is profoundly foolish and stupid.
US Secretary of Defense Mattis has publicly stated that the US recognizes Indonesia’s claim to an area of the South China Sea that China claims as part of its sovereign territory. The area is now called the “North Natuna Sea” by Indonesia and Indonesia asserts that the sea is within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Indonesia. All states have the right to regulate the resources within a 200-mile area from its territorial boundaries, and there is some evidence of oil and natural gas resources near Natuna Island. Mattis is on a trip to Vietnam and Indonesia to foster better ties with those countries and to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region–the balance of power game never rests.
North Korean vessels have visited Russian ports more frequently than Chinese ports in the second half of 2017, a marked change from traditional patterns. The shift reflects Chinese tightening of economic contacts with North Korea because of the UN Security Council contacts. But the Russians, who have also signed onto the sanctions, appear to be taking up the slack. Russia could easily supply North Korea with petroleum and coal, both of which are critical imports for North Korea. US President Trump has been quite critical of China’s support for North Korea, but he only called out Russia for its support on 17 January. The Russians deny that they have violated the sanctions.
The Pew Research Center has conducted a poll on how Americans regard the state of Israel and the results find a striking divide between Democrats and Republicans. The poll results show that
“The partisan divide in Middle East sympathies, for Israel or the Palestinians, is now wider than at any point since 1978. Currently, 79% of Republicans say they sympathize more with Israel than the Palestinians, compared with just 27% of Democrats.
“Since 2001, the share of Republicans sympathizing more with Israel than the Palestinians has increased 29 percentage points, from 50% to 79%. Over the same period, the share of Democrats saying this has declined 11 points, from 38% to 27%.”
Support for Israel overall remains quite strong, but the poll results shows sharp difference based on age and religious affiliation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is a lightning rod for much criticism.
We usually associate the “good life” with having “things” that make our lives more comfortable. But there are many people in the world who lack many of these “things”. The Pew Research Center has conducted interviews with tens of thousands of people and usually starts out their interviews with a simple question: “How would you describe your day today – has it been a typical day, a particularly good day or a particularly bad day?” Over the years they have asked this question to over forty thousand people in 38 countries and their responses have revealed an interesting correlation:
“Perhaps surprisingly, responses to this question were negatively correlated with one measure of national well-being, the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI). Countries with higher HDI scores have, on average, higher gross national income per capita, longer expected lifespans and higher educational expectations and attainment. Yet people in countries with higher HDI scores are less likely to say their day has been particularly good. In 2014, we similarly found that a country’s GDP per capita was negatively correlated with the percentage of people who said their day was good.”
It appears as if “things” do not necessarily make us happier.
On the other hand, poverty is a miserable condition and while one should not believe that wealth makes one happy, it does not follow that the lack of wealth is the key to happiness. Accumulating waelth, however, does appear to be an objective for a large number of people on the planet. And that number seems to be getting smaller relative to the number of people alive. Oxfam is an advocacy group that works to ameliorate global poverty and is publishes an annual report on efforts to reduce poverty in the world. This year’s report focuses on growing wealth inequality in the world, and its conclusions are depressing:
“Last year saw the biggest increase in the number of billionaires in history, with one more billionaire every two days. There are now 2,043 dollar billionaires worldwide. Nine out of 10 are men. Billionaires also saw a huge increase in their wealth. This increase was enough to end extreme poverty seven times over. 82% of all of the growth in global wealth in the last year went to the top 1%, whereas the bottom 50% saw no increase at all.”
While one should be cautious about reports from advocacy groups, the Oxfam report is consistent with other studies on the problem of wealth inequality in the world.
US President Trump has approved an increase of tariffs on imported large residential washing machines and imported solar cells and modules. The move targets imports from China and will likely trigger a harsh response from China. The move also reflects Mr. Trump’s belief that trade deals have worked against US interests. The tariffs will help the manufacturers of solar panels in the US but will raise the cost of installing those panels and perhaps reduce incentives toward renewable energy. We should watch carefully to assess the Chinese reaction–a trade war would not be in the interest of either country.
World Politics News 