Adam Taylor of the Washington Post has written an informative piece on the history of the Crimea. The essay explains much of the historical tension that pervades the peninsula and why so many residents there have such strong and mixed feelings toward each other and their neighbors. It also suggests that there is no easy resolution to this particular crisis which can almost be thought of as independent of the crisis facing Ukraine as a whole.
The situation in Venezuela continues to deteriorate as food shortages amplify the high rates of inflation and unemployment. President Maduro apparently refuses to acknowledge the seriousness or the legitimacy of the protests. The photograph below is of a food line in San Cristobal. It is reminiscent of the food lines in Yarmouk, Syria, and symbolic of the critical role food prices play in the protests all over the world right now.
The US NSA and the British Intelligence Service, GCHQ, have been busy intercepting and storing thousands of webcam images lifted from Yahoo! users. There appears to be no criteria involved in capturing those images, and a very high percentage of those webcam images were of a sexually explicit nature. This activity is worse than anything George Orwell ever imagined in 1984. The political power implicit in being able to use such images in political blackmail is simply extraordinary.
George Kennan was one of the most influential foreign policy analysts in American diplomatic history. He was, in many respects, the person who crystallized a strategy for the US in the Cold War even though the final form of that strategy departed from his central propositions. The New York Times ran an insightful op-ed piece suggesting that many of his insights would be highly relevant to a re-formulation of American foreign policy today.
The World Bank postponed a loan scheduled to finance health care in Uganda to signal its opposition to the anti-gay legislation recently passed in the country. The move is highly unusual as the World Bank tries to avoid overt intervention in the domestic politics of its member states. Other countries, such as Norway and Denmark, have suspended aid to Uganda. The moves are designed to show clear opposition to discrimination, but it also represents a clear expression of cultural values that are not necessarily universally shared.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to show Russia’s military strength as the crisis in Ukraine unfolds. The Viktor Leonov SSV-175, one of Russia’s intelligence naval vessels (read: spy ship), docked in Havana, Cuba. The message was clear: the Russian military is prepared to take whatever steps are necessary to defend Russian interests.
The Russian press is reporting a massive military exercise by Russian forces in Western and Central Russia. Sergey Shoigu, Russia’s Defense Minister, claimed that: “The drills are not connected with events in Ukraine at all.” Of course, no one believes Shoigu, and the exercise is regarded as sabre-rattling by Russian President Putin. Anti-government protesters in Ukraine are certainly concerned by the Russian moves, but the important constituency to watch are the Russian supporters in Eastern Ukraine. Will they be encouraged by the Russian moves to push to restore Yanukovich to the Ukrainian Presidency?
US Secretary of State Kerry issued some very strong language when he characterized a possible Russian military move in Ukraine as a “grave mistake.” Kerry is walking a very fine line, trying to convey the strongest US opposition to a possible Russian military action without making a formal commitment by the US to respond militarily. Both the US and Russia are engaged in a very dangerous game.
The situation in Syria has not improved at all for the civilians trapped in the violence of the civil war. The photograph below is from a refugee camp in Yarmouk, south of Damascus. These are civilians lining up to receive humanitarian food supplies.
For the first time in 13 years, the US is considering a defense budget that does not include funds for an ongoing war. The defense budget will actually decrease in real terms, continuing a trend that extends back three years. The budget cuts do reflect a clear reduction in the commitments of the US, and will likely cause some degree of apprehension among American allies. It is unlikely, however, that the Congress will implement all these cuts–there are well organized lobbies that will fight to restore weapons funding.
The world may be entering a “post-automobile” world. By 2050 there will be more than 9 billion people living in cities, and it is difficult to imagine that these many people could travel effectively with private automobiles (forgetting the environmental hazards of so many cars). There are two major issues of concern that stem from this emerging reality: what industries will replace automobiles, and can those industries employ nearly as many people as automobile factories? And what alternative means of transportation exist that could handle that many people comfortably and conveniently? All transitions are difficult to imagine, but this one in particular seems virtually intractable.
Social media plays a huge, but unquantifiable, role in protest movements today. Governments who wish to repress protests try to block these outlets, but the guerrilla war between users and the governments never yields a clear-cut winner. One social app, Zello, is currently playing a significant role in Venezuela, as it did in Ukraine and Turkey as well. The cat and mouse game is a whole new front in cyberwar, and one that should be followed very closely.
It is rare to be able to identify visually the differences among countries, but this night photograph of the Korean peninsula is quite dramatic and very telling. North Korea is truly different from South Korea and China as far as electrical usage is concerned.
Ugandan President Museveni signed into law severe anti-homosexual laws today. There are currently 10 countries in the world where homosexuality is punishable by death, and there are many more in which homosexuality is against the law. Human rights are far from universal in the world.
We are getting a better sense of the tragedy unfolding in the Central African Republic as more information becomes available. The scale of the misery is country-wide, and Muslims are fleeing the country in significant numbers as the world witnesses yet another example of cleansing. Muslims accounted for about 15% of the CAR population, and also filled some important economic roles in the society. It is hard to imagine any measure of stability in the country if the cleansing process continues.
As we watch the protests unfold in Ukraine, Thailand, Venezuela, Turkey and many other countries, it is important to remember that all protest movements are firmly rooted in local issues. Nonetheless, there are systemic pressures that are transmitted by the forces of globalization that tend to make these local affairs true manifestations of a much larger process. The protests we are witnessing are all spearheaded by firmly entrenched middle class groups, raising very traditional middle class issues. And all of these protests are occurring in what are regarded as democratic polities. In the abstract, we may be witnessing the erosion of legitimacy of liberal values, closely akin to the similar erosion in the early 20th century.
Ukrainian President Yanukovich claims to still be in Ukraine (presumably in the pro-Russian eastern part of the country), and the protesters and the outside world are struggling to figure out what the next steps might be. Chief among the worries are the Russian response to the governmental collapse. Russia has always considered Ukraine to be an essential part of Greater Russia, and its strategic and economic importance for Russia is difficult to overstate. Now that the Olympics are over, we can be certain that President Putin feels much less constrained to articulate Russian interests.
An innovative software/think tank called New England Complex Systems Institute developed a model several years ago predicting violent protests due to high food prices. It has proven to be highly accurate over the years. Violent protests always have many and varied causes, but the theorists argue that high food prices seems to serve as the “spark” for violence. The chart buttressing their conclusions seems to be quite persuasive. The fact that the very high price for food in 2013 will likely go down in 2014 is a somewhat encouraging note.
In a rare breakthrough, the UN Security Council has finally passed a resolution demanding that the Syrian government allow humanitarian aid to be introduced into the country. The resolution was not vetoed by either Russia or China because is contained no reference to enforcement if the Syrian government refuses to allow the aid in. Rather, the UN Secretary-General has to report to the Security Council about the success of the aid mission, at which point the Council must decide what action to take if the aid is refused. Needless to say, the resolution is a very weak one, but the best that could be passed. It does open a small window of possible help if enough public pressure can be brought to bear on the Security Council.
Ukraine President Yanukovich has left Kyiv, and the government is effectively leaderless right now. The assumption is that the agreement to call for new elections and to rewrite the constitution back to its 2009 form are still in force, but there is now way to verify that conclusion. In an extraordinary turn of events, protesters has essentially taken over Yanukovich’s private residence about 12 miles outside of Kyiv and are protecting it as a way of illustrating the corruption of his regime. The opulence in which Yanukovich lived was jaw-dropping, as suggested by some of the photographs from the site.
A truce has been brokered between the Ukraine government and the protesters, but it is soon to tell whether it will hold. The truce calls for new elections and a sharp curtailment of Presidential powers. The truce came about after the situation had deteriorated into an outright civil war. The protests are no longer about whether Ukraine will orient itself toward Russia or the EU; it is now a struggle over the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government itself.
Meanwhile, the situation in Venezuela has also deteriorated into a civil war. In this case, however, the government of President Maduro seems intent on organizing private militias to carry out attacks against the protesters. Maduro has revoked the credentials of the foreign press, so we can only get information through unvetted conduits such as social media. Venezuela, like Ukraine, is rapidly running out of foreign exchange reserves, so both countries will need outside assistance if they are to continue to import necessary items. In both cases, however, the major sources of outside capital are all deeply suspicious of the corruption in both countries, making the process of getting aid very difficult.
There is always news that makes me scratch my head in bewilderment. Today’s prize goes to the Israeli arms dealers who were shipping fighter plane parts to Iran. The scam was reported by the Greek press which is not well known for its hard-hitting investigative reporting. And it boggles the mind that the Israeli intelligence service, the Mossad, was not aware of such significant transactions. I guess everyone has to make a buck.
The National Security Agency obviously can’t take a joke. It sued the manufacturer of tee-shirts and other paraphernalia that used the NSA logo in this way:
The Office of Homeland Security also sued because of this logo:
Someone should remind the Agencies what they are trying to protect, namely the freedom of speech.
The situation in Ukraine has exploded today, with nine people dying in protests. There is a live video feed from Kyiv (below–remember that the time difference is none hours) and it appears as if the protesters have been completely energized. Talks over a new constitution have broken down, and President Yanukovich has signed an aid agreement with Russia. The agreement forestalls a sovereign default by Ukraine, but it also burns Ukraine’s bridges to the European Union.
Four people were killed in protests in Bangkok, Thailand as government opponents have seized government buildings in an attempt to prevent the government from conducting its business. Security forces tired to reclaim some of these buildings which led to the violent clashes. The standoff in Thailand seems no closer to resolution, and the Thai economy continues to deteriorate as a result.
China has rejected the UN report accusing North Korea of crimes against humanity. China called the report “unreasonable criticism” and rejected claims that it was complicit in the crimes by sending defectors back to North Korea rather than granting them asylum. The Chinese position makes it extremely unlikely that any effective action can be taken against the Korean regime.
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