Peter Baker of the New York Times has written a very good piece on the previous cases of where parts of states have seceded. The comparisons are useful when one is trying to figure out the legality of the proposed referendum on Crimea merging with Russia. If anything, his analysis proves how inconsistent the world has been on this particular question over the years.
The Arab League has joined the Palestinian Authority in rejecting Israel’s demand that it be recognized as a Jewish state. The issue has been a long-standing disagreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Israel demands the recognition as evidence of Palestinian sincerity in accepting the existence of the state of Israel. The Palestinians refuse to make the recognition, arguing that they recognized Israel as a state in the Oslo Agreement. The Palestinians believe that the demand forces them to give up all claims to the lands lost by the Palestinians in the creation of Israel and the Palestinian demand that they be allowed to return to their homes.
The economic stresses that led to the Great Recession of 2008 have not been addressed yet. Indeed, global debt has increased from about $70 trillion in 2007 to about $100 trillion in 2013. The dramatic increase in debt is the result of Central Banks all over the world buying bonds in order to lower interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth. So far, the strategy has not worked, and, eventually, that debt will have to be paid back. How it will be repaid is not at all clear, but the world is more vulnerable to a credit crisis today than it was in 2008 when the global economy almost collapsed.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a statement concerning territorial disputes in Asia that was considered quite provocative by many of its neighbors. Referring to disputes with Japan and the Philippines, Mr. Wang said that “there is no room for compromise in territorial and historical issues.”
As it becomes more likely that Russia will take action to annex Crimea, the rhetoric between Russia and the West has become more heated. For the third time, members of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were denied entry into Crimea to assess the validity of the claims that Russians were being attacked by Ukrainians in Crimea. Russia continues to deny that the armed soldiers taking control of Crimea are Russian soldiers.
About 15% of the Crimean population is Tatar. This ethnic group was exiled from the Crimea by Stalin during World War II because Stalin mistrusted their loyalty to the Soviet Union. For this reason, one would suspect that the Tatars would fiercely resist Russian control over the Crimea. However, the Russians are courting the Tatars with very attractive offers of financial support and political promises. It will be interesting to see where the Tatars end up. For many years, the Crimean Tatars have been asking for independence, as evidenced by their membership in the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization.
The Russian invasion of Crimea has led to the possibility that Russia will try to incorporate Crimea into Russian, not Crimean, territory. The move is a blatant violation of international norms and law, but border changes are not that infrequent in world politics. Check out this video of European border changes over the last 1000 years.
The Russians, of course, believe that their actions are fully consistent with international law. Their position is that an illegal coup occurred in Ukraine, and that therefore the normal constitutional processes of Ukraine cannot be followed. Therefore, the Crimea is not bound by the laws of Ukraine and can legally decide to join Russia. The Western powers disagree: the Ukrainian Parliament (the Rada) has not been dissolved and therefore the continuity of legal control has not been breached.
Mikheil Saakashvili was president of Georgia from 2004 to 2013 and he has written a short piece for the Washington Post about the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. His perspective is highly critical of the Western powers and their limited defense of Georgian sovereignty in that episode. While his position is very clear about what he believes should be done in Ukraine, one should read the essay with a critical eye as to whether the circumstances are so similar.
There apparently is a move in the Obama Administration to speed up the process of exporting natural gas in an attempt to blunt Russia’s control over European energy. This option is possible because of fracking, a policy that is problematic. Exporting natural gas would also raise prices in the US. Such are the costs of implementing an economic foreign policy.
The Crimean Parliament has voted to hold a referendum on whether Crimea should join Russia. The Parliament does not have the authority to order such a referendum–only the Ukrainian Parliament can make decisions about Ukrainian territory. But it is likely that a Crimea-only referendum would favor merging with Russia. Such a vote would force Ukraine’s hand–it is tantamount to a vote to secede, and, like the Union in the American Civil War, Ukraine would likely move to repress the secession with armed force. The move raises the stakes considerably.
The rise of the right-wing in world politics is one of the more distressing patterns today. The parties in Europe have been notable for their anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiment (sentiments which exist in many places) which makes them somewhat different from right-wing parties in other areas of the world that tend to emphasize economic issues. Germany has seen a rise in anti-Muslim sentiment which is likely to have a big impact on the upcoming European Parliament elections.
The EU is offering economic support of about 15 billion euro to Ukraine. The money would be disbursed over several years, but is contingent on Ukraine following conditions laid down by the IMF. Those conditions are generally quite austere and will demand significant changes to the Ukrainian economy that many citizens will find hard to accept–much as is the case in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy. It is, however, a very generous counter proposal to that offered by Russia, so it gives the Ukrainian government a viable alternative to Russian support.
Boko Haram continues to wage violent attacks in northern Nigeria. The government seems to be incapable of responding effectively to these attacks, and the constant pressure of the attacks is steadily eroding the stability of the government. Nigeria is a critically important state and the prospect of a slow deterioration in the politics of the country poses a serious challenge to the overall stability of West Africa.
India announced that it will begin to hold its national elections on 7 April. The contest this year is likely to be a particularly sharp political debate, pitting the likely Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate, Narendra Modi, against the Congress Party. The BJP is a Hindu nationalist party, and Modi has the legacy of a horrible anti-Muslim incident in his home state of Gujarat in 2002. This election bears close watching as it will be the largest democratic election in human history.
Any attempt to persuade Russia that the costs of invading Ukraine are higher than the benefits depends on the ability of the West to implement economic sanctions that penalize the invasion. There are reasons, however, to believe that Russians have insulated themselves from such measures by disguising their wealth in offshore banks that hide the identity of the owners of the wealth. In this situation, the interests of economic elites in avoiding state scrutiny trumps the national interests of preventing armed aggression. That conclusion suggests a global elite with no national loyalties at all.
The US Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, gave a strong speech to the UN Security Council condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Definitely worth a read. Russian President Putin gave a press conference which has dampened the fears of an immediate Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In the press conference, Putin said that Russia had no intention of annexing any Ukrainian territory. The global reaction seems to be one of relief, but one should be careful about Putin’s honesty in such circumstances. He obviously has bought himself some time and dampened the furor, but there has been no change in Russia’s ability to do precisely what he said he would not do. Always watch capabilities, and not rhetoric.
One would think that the US and the European Union would easily forge a united front against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the Europeans are quite reluctant to take strong economic action, largely because of European dependence on Russian natural gas exports to the region. Given that the US is now the world’s largest natural gas producer, one would think that the Obama Administration is trying to figure out how to increase its gas exports to Europe.
Reuters is reporting a Russian ultimatum to Ukrainian forces in Crimea. We will see if this report is confirmed. If true, it represents a very dramatic escalation of the crisis.
Protests continue in Venezuela, as evidence mounts that President Maduro is using paramilitary thugs to intimidate the opposition. The protesters are difficult to categorize: some are leftists, and others are supporters of the business community. They only seem to agree that Maduro must go. If Maduro does fall, it is hard to imagine how Venezuela will reconstitute a government–a very dangerous political situation.
We are getting more information about the strength of the Ukrainian military. The basic information we have which is largely an estimate gleaned from public sources is that the Ukrainian military probably lacks the strength to do anything about the Russian invasion of Crimea–the Russians seem to have an overwhelming advantage. But the Ukrainian military could likely hold its own if the conflict expanded outside of Crimea. So much depends on how President Putin chooses to exploit his advantage in Crimea and whether he has the self-discipline to avoid moving his objectives beyond that simple strategic goal.
There has been a violent extremist attack in China that was reputed to have been launched by Uighurs from the Xinjiang Province. There are some in Xinjiang who wish to have independence from the central government in China, although it is difficult to gauge the depth of that feeling. This attack is only the latest of a strong of attacks that have occurred over the last few years. The Chinese regard the movement as a threat to the territorial integrity of China, and have tried to repress the independence movement with little success.
Behind every political crisis is an economic backstory. Speigel has an excellent overview of the economic problems facing Ukraine right now. The political instability in the country makes it especially difficult for Ukraine to address these problems, and as chaos seems to descent on the country, its economic turmoil will only increase. The only hope for the easing of these issues is some sort of aid coming from the EU or the US, and, right now, it does not appear as if they will be stepping up to the plate.
The reports that the Russians have sent 15,000 troops to Crimea (reports which cannot be verified by journalists on the ground) have sharply raised the question of how Ukraine and its allies should respond to an invasion. At this point I really do not have any idea of how strong or reliable the Ukrainian military is, nor do I have any sense of how truly divided the Ukrainian polity is. There are plenty of talking heads, essentially repeating what each other has said, and I cannot vouch for any of the rumors that are currently flying around. My advice is to keep reading as much as you can from as many sources that you can find. There is little question, however, that the next 24-48 hours will be critical in determining the direction of this crisis.
The Economist has published a very perceptive and powerful essay entitled “What’s Gone Wrong with Democracy?” It is a very long essay, so I will not ask any questions about it on the weekly quiz. But I strongly encourage everyone to read it. As we witness the middle class protests all over the world, we cannot ignore the larger question of whether a globalized world is governable along the lines of political and economic authority that have been developed over the last 500 years. The world seems to be moving very fast away from that ideal.
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