One would think that the US and the European Union would easily forge a united front against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the Europeans are quite reluctant to take strong economic action, largely because of European dependence on Russian natural gas exports to the region. Given that the US is now the world’s largest natural gas producer, one would think that the Obama Administration is trying to figure out how to increase its gas exports to Europe.
Reuters is reporting a Russian ultimatum to Ukrainian forces in Crimea. We will see if this report is confirmed. If true, it represents a very dramatic escalation of the crisis.
Protests continue in Venezuela, as evidence mounts that President Maduro is using paramilitary thugs to intimidate the opposition. The protesters are difficult to categorize: some are leftists, and others are supporters of the business community. They only seem to agree that Maduro must go. If Maduro does fall, it is hard to imagine how Venezuela will reconstitute a government–a very dangerous political situation.
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Hi Professor Ferraro I saw an interview Charlie Rose had with former secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Robert Gates prior to being Secretary of Defense was working at the CIA as Russian expert and ultimately became the CIA director in 1991. He started his interview by criticizing the notion that people have said about Putin becoming lost with reality, he repeatedly said that Putin knows exactly what he was doing and that he had the upper hand in this crisis. He also criticized people who claimed that he was trying to rebuild the Soviet Union by saying that “Putin doesn’t want to recreate the Soviet Union, he just merely wants control them through an alliance with Russia and trying to prevent the former Soviet states from moving to the west”. Charlie Rose then asked him why he didn’t think he was trying to recreate the Soviet Union and Secretary Gates replied by saying “Putin does not want any of their former Soviet states’ economic problems and what he wants is political influence and he wants those states to look to Russia for guidance within the international environment and that he might want an alliance with them but without being responsible for internal problems of those countries.” He then talked about the Wests’ reluctance to impose economic sanctions as we mentioned in class was due to the fact that Putin controlled the energy sources for Europe and that Russia was a gateway for the return of US equipment from Afghanistan. Gates also says that Putin is needed with the nuclear negotiations with Iran and the talks with the Syrian government to form some sort of peace after 3 years of bloodshed. I’m providing the link to his interview that was posted on Hulu which can be watched for free.
http://www.hulu.com/watch/604609
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Dear Zahri,
Thanks for the comment and the link. Gates is a really smart guy. I agree overall with you comment, but want to make a comment about Putin “knowing what he wants.” What a state wants is always problematic: once a state takes an action, the response of other states is never known for certain. Therefore, some steps may entail unforeseen costs. In the case of Ukraine, I suspect that Putin did think that the West would not respond in any effective way. At this point, I would say that he was correct. But there are dynamics in motion right now that remain unforeseen (what the Ukrainians might do, what the Russians in other areas of Ukraine might do). So Putin may yet be proven wrong. We’ll just have to watch the situation unfold.
Thanks again.
Best,
Vinnie
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