9 February 2020   Leave a comment

Spiegel published an article on how globalization has affected, and been affected by, the coronavirus that originated in China. The virus has been given a temporary official name, Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia, or NCP. It is very difficult to write about the new virus without engendering panic and it is important to stress that there is no need to panic at this time. But there is so much we do not yet know about the virus and it is impossible to assess its likely overall impact on humans. Today, the death total from the NCP has exceeded the death toll from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus that killed many in 2003. The death toll from NCP reached 813, and 86 of those victims died yesterday in China–the highest daily total so far. We do know, however, that the virus has had a strong and deleterious effect on the economy of China and that it will likely have knock-on effects on the global economy even if it is contained in China. The Norwegian media outlet, CNN, reported:

“The overly optimistic U.S markets are in for a rude awakening. America’s economy has become intertwined with China, and an economic shock in one nation will harm the other. If the crisis continues to worsen, a global recession is a real possibility.

“China’s economy accounts for a staggering 16% of the global economy. And when it coughs, the world gets sick.

“According to a study from the World Bank, a major global pandemic could delete up to 5% of the world’s GDP – a sum that is over $3 trillion. They rate the potential impact alongside a global war.”

China has implemented quite severe containment procedures, but it is not clear that they will be effective. Much of the Chinese work force has been on the Lunar New Year holiday (which was extended by 10 days) and are scheduled to return to work tomorrow. We shall see whether the movement of larger numbers of people will have any effects on the spread of NCP.

WUHAN, CHINA – FEBRUARY 07: A resident rides a motorbike across an empty track on February 7, 2020 in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Photo by Getty Images

Countries with Cases of NCP, 9 February 2020

Australia – 15

Belgium – 1

Cambodia – 1

Canada – 7

China – 37,198

Finland – 1 

France – 11

Germany – 14

India – 3

Italy – 3

Japan – 26 + 70 (on a cruise ship)

Malaysia – 17

Nepal – 1

The Philippines – 3

Russia – 2

Singapore – 43

South Korea – 27

Spain – 2

Sri Lanka – 1

Sweden – 1

Taiwan – 18

Thailand – 32

United Arab Emirates – 7

United Kingdom – 3

United States – 12

Vietnam – 14

Posted February 9, 2020 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

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