Great Britain has released a long-awaited analysis of the decision to go to war against Iraq in 2003. The analysis was led by Sir John Chilcot and the final report is 2.6 million words long. One can read his summary of the report here. The report refutes most of the central claims made by the British Government, whose Prime Minister at that time was Tony Blair, and, by association, the claims made by the Administration of President George W. Bush. In the summary, Chilcot argues that:
We have also concluded that:
• The judgements about the severity of the threat posed by Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction – WMD – were presented with a certainty that was not justified.
• Despite explicit warnings, the consequences of the invasion were underestimated. The planning and preparations for Iraq after Saddam Hussein were wholly inadequate.
• The Government failed to achieve its stated objectives.
I seriously doubt that the report will force a thoughtful rethinking of the decision within the US.
Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consulting firm, has issued a new report on the oil reserves held by different countries which is at odds to conventional wisdom. According to these new findings, the US holds the largest reserves in the world, followed by Russia and Saudi Arabia. Significantly, the new estimates hold that Venezuela, which was believed to hold the largest reserves, actually has far limited reserves. Much of the US reserves are available only by fracking which is a controversial practice for environmental reasons.
US President Obama announced today that he would not remove American troops from Afghanistan and would in fact increase their levels to 8,400. He came to office promising to end the war but will now be handing it off to his successor. The decision rests upon the judgment of his advisors that Afghanistan’s central government would not survive without American military support. The war is already the longest war in American military history. Unfortunately, the Afghans have been at war for a far longer period of time.
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