29 June 2012   Leave a comment

As Turkish-Syrian tensions rise, and the prospect of a wider war looms, we need to get more substantive information on Turkish foreign policy.  Here is a news article from the Persian Gulf about Turkish fears of a rise in tension in the region. Meanwhile, the US and others try to figure out the Russian stance on Syria.

The cat and mouse game between Iran and the West on the oil sanctions continues.  The EU sanctions are supposed to go into effect on 1 July, but it will be difficult to enforce.  The more serious problem for the Iranians is the precipitous drop in the price of crude over the last month (about 20%).  Meanwhile, the US has granted China a waiver from economic sanctions because it has reduced its purchases from Iran by about 25%.  Obviously, that is less than the Americans would have preferred, but enforcing the sanctions on China would have compromised many other objectives in US-China policy.  Iran is arming its naval vessels in the Persian Gulf with shorter range missiles, indicating that it continues to fear an attack.

Daily chart: America vs China. America’s economy made up 22% of world GDP in 2011; China’s just 10%. The perception in some countries that America is no longer the world’s pre-eminent economy is therefore somewhat premature. Nevertheless, on current trends China will surpass America somewhere around 2018.

Source: The Economist, 15 June 2012

Posted June 30, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

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