The drumbeat on Iran is getting a little faster and louder. The key variable in this calculation is actually the timing of the US Presidential election. A classic example of how domestic politics can determine foreign policy–one of the reasons why realists hate public opinion.
An interesting development in American trade policy: for the first time since 1949, the US top export to the rest of the world is refined petroleum products. Usually, the top export is aircraft. But this development highlights the increased demand for petroleum in the world. So the US imports petroleum, refines it, and then sells it abroad. Next time you buy gasoline, think about what it would have cost if all refined products were restricted for domestic use (a lot less).
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