Iran has been no stranger to sabotage, and this recent blast is an example of how the regime tries to downplay the possibility that these violent acts are engineered by other states. Nonetheless, one cannot easily dismiss the possibility that the United States, Israel, or dissident Iranians are responsible for the explosions. A second source identifies an important scientist killed in the blast.
I don’t know how many of you have been following the news about the Keystone Project, which was an effort to build a pipeline from Canada to the US for the transport of oil from tar sands. The environmental opposition to the project has been intense for a number of reasons. Interestingly, after President Obama announced his intention to delay the project, the Canadians are working to sell that same oil to Asian countries. The shift raises an interesting question: since the oil is going to be produced and consumed anyway (with all the attendant release of greenhouse gases), should the US go ahead and build the pipeline?
The quiz on Wednesday, 16 November, will be on the lecture notes on Just War, the chapter by Keylor, and NSC-68 (all on the syllabus). In addition, the newspaper articles from 10-14 November will be on the quiz.
Apparently, some are having trouble accessing the posted news articles from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Please do not register or subscribe to these sites. I use this method so that no one has to pay for the readings. I will not ask any questions about articles that students have difficulty in accessing. So ignore those articles. I’ll try to make sure that the problem does not arise again.
Berlusconi is gone (for now). I honestly did not think that he would leave so easily. Now the big question is what skeletons in the closet Mr. Monti will find.
Personalities often play an important role in diplomacy, and no where was this more apparent than in the Middle East peace negotiations over many years. A central negotiator for the US was Dennis Ross who was strongly supported by some and vilified by many. He has announced his resignation which suggests that the US role in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will come to an end for what will probably be an extended period of time.
China sets out its terms for assistance to Europe. Some fascinating demands, both of which symbolize China’s rise to great power status.
The Arab League finally suspends Syria. It’s unlikely that the move will have any effect, but the action places the League on the right side of history.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s recent report has unleashed a torrent of analysis. The report has not actually been published yet–it has only been sent to the governments of the member states. So virtually everything we know about the report is filtered through national governments that have “leaked” excerpts from the report. This approach to information is obviously dangerous. Paul Pillar, one of the most sober and rigorous analysts of the reasons for invading Iraq in March 2003 (he worked for the CIA and left the Agency after the war began–he was also a close personal friend of mine in college), has written a very thoughtful essay on what he has gleaned from these secondary sources. It was published in the National Interest, a noted conservative journal, and raises some very important questions.
The IAEA Report has now been published. You can access it here.
The economic situation in Europe settled down a bit today. The appointment of Papademos in Greece and the rumors that Monti will likely be the next leader in Italy eased much of the nervousness. Monti is a former member of the European Central Bank and thus continues the movement toward “technocratic” leaders as opposed to political leaders. There is, however, an underlying concern within Europe and I suspect that this lull is temporary. Attention is now shifting to the finances of France.
It appears as if the Palestinian bid for UN membership is likely to fail, even after its success in gaining membership in UNESCO. It is difficult to assess what kind of setback this represents for the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas. Obviously, he will be weakened by this failure, but whether that weakness will translate into a dramatic decline in his support in the West bank is unclear.
David Rothkopf, one of the more insightful analysts of the global economy, has a very good piece warning us to not think about “Europe” as a monolithic whole as the economies of some countries in Europe begin to unwind. His advice is highly pertinent as we begin to think about the ways we could have addressed the credit problems since 2007 that might have been less catastrophic than the ones chosen.
The Greeks have chosen Lucas Papademos as their new Prime Minister. The choice of a non-political person is deliberate: Papademos was chosen for his presumably “technocratic” approach to solving problems. The assumption is that because he is not an active politician that he can govern “above the fray” as the Greeks adopt the austerity measures demanded by the Troika. The hope is sincere but probably naive. Papademos will be governing a nation that will be adopting a very severe set of politics. Governing is easy when things are going well; governing under the current conditions in Greece is like walking through a minefield.
Peter Apps of Reuters speculates on the possible global repercussions of an economic collapse within Europe. His prediction of greater unilateralism is one that should be taken seriously. Once the hegemonic system begins to unravel, many states will prefer to go-it-alone rather than take the risks implicit in cooperation.
The Carnegie Endowment has released a very good analysis of the current information we have about the Iranian nuclear program. It’s very detailed, so I will not ask any questions on the quiz about the report. But for those interested in the issue it is a worthwhile read.
A very unsettling article from the British newspaper, The Guardian. It cites a recent report from the International Energy Agency that suggests that in about five years the world will pass a point of no return with respect to climate change.
The Russians apparently do not wish to increase the sanctions on Iran. As the pressure on Iran grows from the recent report from the IAEA, the options available to vent those pressures diminish for the US. We should hope that the pressures do not increase quickly.
The news about Italy rattled the stock markets around the world. They should stabilize if information about Berlusconi’s resignation becomes more solid and reliable. If Berlusconi equivocates, then we can expect further declines. Confidence is in very short supply right now.
The New York Times has a fascinating article on the territorial dispute between Libya and Chad. The roots of the dispute go back (naturally) to European imperialism in Africa, and it is a fascinating study of how Africa was used as the battlefield for European interests. I won’t be asking any questions about this article in the quiz, but I recommend it simply as a highly interesting read.
An interesting article in the Los Angeles Times about the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran. This article comes down squarely in the psychological warfare camp–the last few sentences are persuasive.
Italy steps into the forefront of the Eurozone crisis. Bond interest rates of above 6% are generally regarded as impossible to repay (compound interest essentially doubles the amount a government has to pay back to the bondholders in ten years) and Italian bonds are now above that level. It also appears as if Berlusconi may go the way of Papandreou. Initially, Berlusconi’s departure will ease pressure on Italy. But he has probably been disguising some funny accounting techniques during his tenure which will probably blow the lid off Italian debt. It is going to be interesting.
The self-immolations in Tibet remain a horrifying puzzle. The act conveys a profound sense of desperation, but it is difficult to figure out why that level of frustration was reached at this particular point in time. The BBC offers some insights into this puzzle, but the article is far from satisfying.
The violence in Syria continues. It does not appear as if the end-game in Libya has had any effect on Assad’s decision-making in Syria. Perhaps it even made him less reluctant to be conciliatory.
Unfortunately, much of what we study in world politics is fairly depressing. One should always remember that the vast majority of the people on the planet die peacefully, not violently. But when things go bad, they often go very bad for specific groups of people. The New York Times has an unbelievable graphic on the history of violent deaths. For some reason, East Asia figures prominently.
More details on the rumors of an Israeli strike against Iran. The chatter is getting so loud that I’m beginning to think that it only represents psychological warfare. I suspect that the Israelis would be more circumspect if they were really serious about an attack.
Prime Minster Papandreou wins and loses. He gets the coalition government he needed; he loses his position. We’ll see if the change will quiet the markets. It could actually destabilize them further.
The quiz on 9 November will be on the news paper articles cited in the new blog from 4-7 November and Chapters 5 and 6 in Northedge and Grieve on the syllabus.
Income inequality is affecting everyone in the world, but it is difficult to measure. One metric that may become more common place is unequal access to the necessities of life. The New York Times has a fascinating piece on access to clean air in China.
Culture is the bedrock of all of world politics. I doubt that Bismarck, however, would approve of this diplomatic technique.
The Iranian response to the current charges about its nuclear program.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou survived the vote of no-confidence but it was a Pyrrhic victory. His high-risk gamble saved the EU bail-out money, but his roll of the dice was also the end of his leadership role. Greece will have to go on hold with the current government, but all Greeks will be looking forward to a new and different government. But elections won’t beheld until all the bail-out money has been delivered.
The chatter over a possible Israeli attack on Iran continues. It remains unclear whether this chatter represents nothing more than a continuation of the psychological warfare waged by the Netanyahu Government against Iran or whether this is the real thing. The details in the Ha’aretz article are quite specific which suggests that the latter explanation is more consistent. But such a move would be highly destabilizing and high-risk.
The evidence on climate change gets a little deeper. As the article suggests, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions exceeds the levels initially predicted by the United Nations.
The Occupy Wall Street Movement has been global from the beginning. The development of the organized transnational links formalizes this globalization. Whether the movement becomes fully globalized remains to be seen. But the development of global civic society is the most interesting and compelling story of the 21st century.
World Politics News 