The situation in Egypt has been slowly building over the last few weeks as the deadline for elections approached. It has finally erupted in violence, interestingly over the issue of whether the protesters could set up permanent protest camps in Tahrir Square. The substantive issues revolve around the process by which the new constitution will be written and the perception that the military was taking a role that was considered too intrusive. I suspect that these protests will go on for some time–the protesters have far too much invested in the revolution to see it sidetracked now.
We will get a good read on the direction of the Spanish economy after the elections there on Sunday. The Popular Party, a right wing party, has promised both tough austerity measures plus a reduction in unemployment. I am not sure how that can happen, at least not in the short or medium term. But we’ll see how the bond markets react on Monday to the election.
The United States will play an important role in the unfolding economic situation in Europe this week. A budget agreement is supposed to emerge from the discussions of the so-called “supercommittee” that was charged to come up with about $1.2 trillion in budget debt reductions by 23 November. Right now it seems unlikely that this will happen. We’ll see whether the markets interpret the lack of an agreement as evidence of continued dysfunction with the American government. Such an interpretation will likely trigger off great anxiety within global markets.
The Dalai Lama gave an interview to the BBC in which he discussed the recent immolations in Tibet. The interview gives a sense of the desperation among some of the Tibetans, but also a sense that the sacrifices of the nuns and monks will not change Chinese policy. The Dalai Lama’s wisdom is apparent, but the situation seems unchangeable.
There have been some small changes in Burma over the last few months, all of them encouraging to those who support greater political freedoms in the country (I refuse to call the country Myanmar because the name change was initiated by the Burmese military. If and when the people of Burma approve the name change, I will switch over). US Secretary of State Clinton has announced some important reciprocating changes in US foreign policy toward Burma. I don’t expect swift change, but it does appear as if the long nightmare of the Burmese people may be ending.
Another area which has been experiencing policy changes is the South China Sea. There are a number of states who have made territorial claims to the Sea, and the claims have led to violent exchanges among the competing states. China has recently ramped up its rhetoric over the area, largely due to its belief that the United States is increasing its presence there. The claims have great significance since it is estimated that there is a great deal of oil in the region. Keep your eyes on this issue.
The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, but the latest news about the defections from the Syrian military suggests that the violence will escalate significantly. It suggests that Assad has literally no option other than to hang tough. His final window would be to accept the terms of the Arab League to step down (presumably there is an implicit promise of asylum someplace). But the offer only has a three-day opening. The clock is ticking.
US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta raised concerns about the unintended consequences of an Israeli strike against Iran. The timing of the speech suggests that the US is pushing back hard against those parts of the Israeli government pushing for an attack. Significantly, President Obama did not make the speech–he obviously prefers to stay out of this particular discussion for political reasons. If Obama does make a statement, it is time to get worried about the likelihood of an attack.
Spain is the next domino to get hit by the European debt crisis contagion. Spain is the penultimate domino: all eyes will now turn to France. If French bond yields rise, then the situation cannot be contained. For those who have a deep interest in this particular topic, there is an index that gives us an insight into the “fear factor” about banks. It is called the LIBOR–London Interbank Offer Rate. The LIBOR is the interest rate that banks pay to each other for short-term loans (some as short as overnight loans). Since banks generally trust each other, the rate is usually very low (around 0.25%). Recently the LIBOR has crept up to 0.49%, almost double the usual rate. At the height of the credit crisis in 2008, the LIBOR actually got up to around 4%, a rate that essentially signals total hysteria within the banking center. So if you want to check the “mental” state of the markets, keep an eye on the LIBOR.
President Obama is in Australia announcing a new military commitment to the Pacific Region. There are a number of possibilities here. First, President Obama is taking the first step to address what he considers to be a potential security threat posed by the rise of China. Second, he may be making the move to reassure American allies in the region that they can count on American support in the event of Chinese aggressive action against them. Third, he may be responding to domestic pressures from the US military and other organized groups within the US to assure them all a role as the US winds down its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Note, however, that there is a fourth possibility that Americans never think about but which preoccupies the Chinese: that the US intends to prevent the further increase of Chinese power. As the analysts, you need to figure out which one (or combination) is closest to the truth.
We’ve talked about the growing income inequality in the world, but the Tehran Times has an interesting interpretation of the phenomenon. This interpretation of the economic issue is pervasive in many countries in the world and it represents a critique of market capitalism that resonates strongly with the poor.
The fear of contagion from the sovereign debt crisis in Greece and Italy has now spread from Europe to the US. Specifically, one of the ratings agencies (Fitch) warned of the exposure of US banks to the credit risks in Europe. As we discussed in class, we don’t really know how exposed the banks are since they are no longer required to declare publicly their exposure to these kinds of debts. It is impossible to assess the seriousness of the risk, but we are now entering a stage in which psychology may trump reality. But, if you want to get really frightened, then check out this article: talk about the fox guarding the chicken coop!
One of the criteria of statehood is having control over what goes on in one’s territory. As the Palestinians pursue statehood in the UN, there are real questions about whether the Palestinian Authority actually does control the territory it claims. Israel collects the tax revenues generated within the Occupied Territories and disburses them to the PA. Recently, however, it has refused to hand over the tax revenues to the PA. The question arises: do the Palestinians control their own territory? Does it make a difference that Israel, as an occupying power, undermines the claim to Palestinian statehood, the very outcome it has publicly opposed? Is there any way out of this Catch-22?
We’re getting a little more information on the Iranian nuclear program. The Washington Post ran an article that detailed the work of a Russian scientist cited by the IAEA as evidence of an ambitious weapons program. But, since my job is to make your lives as difficult as possible, I am posting another article, by Gareth Porter, in which it seems as if Vyacheslav Danilenko could have simply been working on a completely different set of non-weapons problems. Now what advice do you give to President Obama?
For a number of years the rise of anti-immigrant sentiment in the world has been an especially troubling development. In world politics, such sentiments raise important questions about what constitutes the “nation.” There have been a number of violent incidents in Europe and the most recent one, in Germany, is truly horrifying. It is very hard to separate the contemporary incident from the history of the German nation. It is, however, very important to do so.
A little bit of a brain puzzler (this link will not be on the quiz) to inspire everyone to come up with a spectacular conspiracy theory/alien invasion/psychedelic cerebral brouhaha. Check out this link.
Iran has been no stranger to sabotage, and this recent blast is an example of how the regime tries to downplay the possibility that these violent acts are engineered by other states. Nonetheless, one cannot easily dismiss the possibility that the United States, Israel, or dissident Iranians are responsible for the explosions. A second source identifies an important scientist killed in the blast.
I don’t know how many of you have been following the news about the Keystone Project, which was an effort to build a pipeline from Canada to the US for the transport of oil from tar sands. The environmental opposition to the project has been intense for a number of reasons. Interestingly, after President Obama announced his intention to delay the project, the Canadians are working to sell that same oil to Asian countries. The shift raises an interesting question: since the oil is going to be produced and consumed anyway (with all the attendant release of greenhouse gases), should the US go ahead and build the pipeline?
The quiz on Wednesday, 16 November, will be on the lecture notes on Just War, the chapter by Keylor, and NSC-68 (all on the syllabus). In addition, the newspaper articles from 10-14 November will be on the quiz.
Apparently, some are having trouble accessing the posted news articles from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Please do not register or subscribe to these sites. I use this method so that no one has to pay for the readings. I will not ask any questions about articles that students have difficulty in accessing. So ignore those articles. I’ll try to make sure that the problem does not arise again.
Berlusconi is gone (for now). I honestly did not think that he would leave so easily. Now the big question is what skeletons in the closet Mr. Monti will find.
Personalities often play an important role in diplomacy, and no where was this more apparent than in the Middle East peace negotiations over many years. A central negotiator for the US was Dennis Ross who was strongly supported by some and vilified by many. He has announced his resignation which suggests that the US role in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will come to an end for what will probably be an extended period of time.
China sets out its terms for assistance to Europe. Some fascinating demands, both of which symbolize China’s rise to great power status.
The Arab League finally suspends Syria. It’s unlikely that the move will have any effect, but the action places the League on the right side of history.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s recent report has unleashed a torrent of analysis. The report has not actually been published yet–it has only been sent to the governments of the member states. So virtually everything we know about the report is filtered through national governments that have “leaked” excerpts from the report. This approach to information is obviously dangerous. Paul Pillar, one of the most sober and rigorous analysts of the reasons for invading Iraq in March 2003 (he worked for the CIA and left the Agency after the war began–he was also a close personal friend of mine in college), has written a very thoughtful essay on what he has gleaned from these secondary sources. It was published in the National Interest, a noted conservative journal, and raises some very important questions.
The IAEA Report has now been published. You can access it here.
The economic situation in Europe settled down a bit today. The appointment of Papademos in Greece and the rumors that Monti will likely be the next leader in Italy eased much of the nervousness. Monti is a former member of the European Central Bank and thus continues the movement toward “technocratic” leaders as opposed to political leaders. There is, however, an underlying concern within Europe and I suspect that this lull is temporary. Attention is now shifting to the finances of France.
It appears as if the Palestinian bid for UN membership is likely to fail, even after its success in gaining membership in UNESCO. It is difficult to assess what kind of setback this represents for the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas. Obviously, he will be weakened by this failure, but whether that weakness will translate into a dramatic decline in his support in the West bank is unclear.
David Rothkopf, one of the more insightful analysts of the global economy, has a very good piece warning us to not think about “Europe” as a monolithic whole as the economies of some countries in Europe begin to unwind. His advice is highly pertinent as we begin to think about the ways we could have addressed the credit problems since 2007 that might have been less catastrophic than the ones chosen.
The Greeks have chosen Lucas Papademos as their new Prime Minister. The choice of a non-political person is deliberate: Papademos was chosen for his presumably “technocratic” approach to solving problems. The assumption is that because he is not an active politician that he can govern “above the fray” as the Greeks adopt the austerity measures demanded by the Troika. The hope is sincere but probably naive. Papademos will be governing a nation that will be adopting a very severe set of politics. Governing is easy when things are going well; governing under the current conditions in Greece is like walking through a minefield.
Peter Apps of Reuters speculates on the possible global repercussions of an economic collapse within Europe. His prediction of greater unilateralism is one that should be taken seriously. Once the hegemonic system begins to unravel, many states will prefer to go-it-alone rather than take the risks implicit in cooperation.
The Carnegie Endowment has released a very good analysis of the current information we have about the Iranian nuclear program. It’s very detailed, so I will not ask any questions on the quiz about the report. But for those interested in the issue it is a worthwhile read.
A very unsettling article from the British newspaper, The Guardian. It cites a recent report from the International Energy Agency that suggests that in about five years the world will pass a point of no return with respect to climate change.
The Russians apparently do not wish to increase the sanctions on Iran. As the pressure on Iran grows from the recent report from the IAEA, the options available to vent those pressures diminish for the US. We should hope that the pressures do not increase quickly.
The news about Italy rattled the stock markets around the world. They should stabilize if information about Berlusconi’s resignation becomes more solid and reliable. If Berlusconi equivocates, then we can expect further declines. Confidence is in very short supply right now.
World Politics News 