Secretary of State Clinton is in Burma, signaling the possibility of a change in US-Burmese relations. Ending martial law will be a difficult process–each side will have to take small steps before confidence can be created. But the risk is worth it–the Burmese people deserve a far better government. Aung San Suu Kyi is truly one of the great heroes of the 20th and 21st centuries.
2011 was the 10th warmest year on record. The climate talks in Durban continue, but the initial days were mostly filled with reports and few conversations about a replacement treaty for Kyoto. The lack of media coverage is disquieting. One would think that the world would be paying closer attention.
The world tries to figure out a proper response to the takeover of the British Embassy in Tehran. The strongest sanctions are, perversely, the most deleterious to the global economy. Iran’s Achilles’ Heel is its dependence on oil exports. The world’s dependence on Iranian oil is its Achilles’ Heel.
I am not certain that this link to an article in the Financial Times will work (the FT is a subscription newspaper, but sometimes they allow access to some articles). If it doesn’t work, let me know and I will bring a photocopy of the article to class. But its title says a lot: “The Long Shadow of the 1930s” by Gideon Rachman. The article assesses the likelihood of the current economic turmoil in Europe leading to the chaos of the interwar period. Definitely creepy.
Canada announces that it does not intend to renew its commitment to the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty designed to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases. Not an auspicious beginning to the climate talks that began today in South Africa.
The quiz on Wednesday, 30 November, for the Mount Holyoke class will be on the news articles from 25-28 November, and the following readings:
Lecture Notes on the Responsiblity to Protect
Anderson, Benedict. Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism. Revised Edition ed. London and New York: Verso, 1991, pp. 5-7
Alexander Wendt, “Anarchy is what States Make of it: The Social Construction of Power Politics,” International Organization, Vol. 46, No. 2 (Spring, 1992), pp. 391-425 (Excerpts)
Gary J. Bass, Freedom’s Battle: The Origins of Humanitarian Intervention (New York: Vintage Books, 2008), excerpts from Chapter One, “Humanitarianism or Imperialism?” pp. 11-24
Adam Curtis, “Goodies and Baddies,” BBC News, 28 March 2011
Noman Hanif, “The Caliphate: Islam’s Challenge to Global Order?” Media Monitors Network, January 31, 2006
The Arab League made good on its threat to impose sanctions on Syria. The Syrian press reported the news in a very matter-of-fact manner. The Iranian press had a different take on the event.
Some members of the Israeli government have called for stricter sanctions on Hamas in the Gaza Strip in order to signal a warning against reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah (which rules in the West Bank). There is growing concern that the instability in Egypt is creating concern within Israel of the possibility of a less sympathetic Egyptian government. It would be very difficult for Israel to exert its control over the Gaza without strong Egyptian support.
The elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo are nearing to an end. The stakes are extraordinarily high for the country, the region, and Africa as a whole. We’ll see if Joseph Kabila will hold onto power.
A US military strike within Pakistan has killed Pakistani security forces. The violations of Pakistani sovereignty have been going on for some time, but Pakistan has denied that US forces are attacking terrorist suspects within its borders. This time the denials will ring hollow and Pakistan is appropriately angry that the attack went so awry. Relations between the US and Pakistan have deteriorated steadily since the US operation against Osama bin Laden, and this incident will resonate loudly for some time. It remains to be seen whether the US-Pakistani alliance can survive.
The protests in Egypt continue to grow, ahead of the first round of parliamentary elections scheduled for Monday. It appears as if the movement is a revival of the one in the spring, and not instigated by the Muslim Brotherhood or any other organized group in anticipation of the return of civilian government. The focus of the protests seems to be exclusively on the role of the military in shaping the next political round.
Discussions on the likelihood of the break-up of the eurozone are proliferating. This article in The Economist offers one of the best summaries of the issues I’ve read thus far.
The next round of climate talks begins on Monday in Durban, South Africa. The last climate conference in Copenhagen was an unmitigated disaster–no agreements of note were reached, and the division between rich and poor countries on mutual responsibilities in protecting the climate deepened. The Durban meeting opens with very low expectations, but the urgency of the issue is acute.
The European economic situation became sharply worse this week, and today was dramatically bad. Italian 10-year bonds rates rose to almost 8%, Hungary’s bonds were classified as “junk,” and Belgium’s credit status was downgraded from AA+ to AA. European banks are trying to sell assets to raise capital, but there are no buyers–no one wants to be holding euros. Pressure is building on the European Central Bank to buy sovereign debt from European countries, but Germany adamantly refuses to allow that course of action.
You’ve heard of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), but now people are talking about a group of countries with even faster growth rates: the CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa). Keeping up with acronyms in world politics is an impossible task.
The Arab League’s ultimatum to Syria will be tested soon. Odds are that Syria will not submit to the League’s ultimatum.
The failure of the Germans to sell all their bonds today signals a dark turn for the euro. I don’t think that the lack of demand for German bonds reflects a lack of confidence in the German economy (although there have been signs of an economic slowdown there) but rather the fear of investors to hold anything denominated in euro. That fear suggests that the euro will fall in value. Not a good day for the European Union. But it’s not a good day for the rest of the world, either. The economic slowdown in Europe is having a serious effect on economic activity in China.
Truth.
Listen.
Have a great Thanksgiving!
Aaargh! Just when I thought the economic situation in Europe couldn’t get any worse, I read this article about the German economy from Der Spiegel. Apparently the German debt situation is comparable to some of the economies currently under stress–we just haven’t been paying attention to it because the German economy was always growing. Now that the overall European economy is slowing down, the stress on the Germans will intensify. The Europeans clearly need some external funding stimulus, but I can’t see where it would come from.
The situation in Egypt continues to deteriorate as protests against the military turn increasingly violent. The size of the protests is extraordinary which makes categorizing the movement difficult. Quite clearly, the protesters oppose continued military control. But are the current protests simply a continuation of those last spring? Or are the current protests something different. We’ll have to watch how these protests evolve.
South Korea just ratified a highly controversial Free Trade Agreement with the United States. The agreement was stalled in the US Congress for a number of years, and only recently passed. The passage in the South Korean Parliament was accompanied by fist fights and the use of tear gas. The opposition to Free Trade seems to be growing globally as the economic situation gets for difficult.
The contagion from the European economic crisis continues to spread. Because the East Asian economies continue to rely on exports, the looming recession in Europe will reduce economic activity in Asia. Many of the Asian countries have made half-hearted efforts to shift their economic activity away from export promotion to domestic consumption. Their failure to do so means that they cannot escape a slowdown either. So the US will slowdown because of the increased credit risk affecting US banks, and Asia will slow down because of a lack of demand. Unless something changes these dynamics, a global slowdown is inevitable.
The US and other nations have intensified their sanctions against Iran. Sanctions have a spotty record of effectiveness, and they often tend to punish the country as a whole and not the decision-makers of the offending country. The move could simply be an attempt to exhaust all peaceful alternatives to persuade Iran to change course on its nuclear program. Or it could be a sincere attempt to persuade the decision-makers in Iran that the costs of pursuing nuclear weapons is too high. Or it could be an attempt to divide the Iranian leadership which is know to be at loggerheads with each other. We’ll have to watch the next moves before we can decide which is which.
The “German problem” resurfaces. We’ll see how far the resentment goes. It’s likely, however, to increase over the next few months unless the Germans alter their position concerning the lending policies of the European Central Bank.
The Center-Right Party won in Spain, and the socialists were trounced. Spain now becomes the fifth European country to change governments during this economic crunch. The people don’t seem to think that the situation will improve in the country, but it was clear they wanted to punish the party that had been ruling in Spain for so long. We’ll see whats policies the new government is able to implement.
The protests in Cairo turned violent as opposition to the military grows. The protesters are a diverse group, so it’s hard to characterize the nature of the protest. With elections a week away, we’ll see if the military tries to postpone them. I doubt that it would do anything so foolish, but widespread violence could have a significant effect on the outcome.
This article is tragic but not unexpected. Given the economic stresses on the world’s economies, it was optimistic to think that progress could be made on measures to protect the global environment. Nonetheless, the failure to reach an agreement means that individual nations will have to make their best efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A international treaty is not absolutely necessary for progress, but it would have made the national efforts a little easier.
World Politics News 