There is a growing tendency in many parts of the world for some to demand the right to deny rights to others. The decline of tolerance is a worrisome ancillary to the decreased legitimacy of government. Such acts have taken center stage in Israel as ultra-orthodox Jews have tried to enforce the segregation of sexes and certain codes of conduct on other, more secular Jews. The situation has boiled over in a series of protests. Since the current government of Netanyahu depends upon Parliamentary support from some of these ultra-orthodox parties, it will be interesting to see whether it will protect the rights of secular Israelis. Fortunately, there have been some victories for liberal rights in the region. In Egypt, there was a victory for women as the high court there prohibited the military from conducting virginity tests on female detainees.
Stephen Walt has written a brilliant short essay eviscerating one of the neoconservative proponents of an attack on Iran. Pressures are rising in the region as the EU meets to determine whether to embargo Iranian oil. Iran has responded by threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz if the EU measure is passed.
The Syrian protests are getting larger, but there seems to be little movement toward any resolution of the crisis. Arab League monitors are expected to be in place by Wednesday, but it seems unlikely that they will have any real effect.
Historical analogies are always good ways to tickle one’s brain. They are useful analytical tools as well: trying to compare and contrast similarities and differences is a great way to uncover things one might have otherwise missed. The Asia Times ran an interesting essay by an Italian journalist comparing the rise of Germany on the 19th century to the rise of China in the 20th. I had a great time thinking about the rise of the US and the rise of China as well. Both analogies are intriguing but also highly misleading. The US attitude toward China is profoundly different from the British attitude toward Germany.
A very upbeat article on the state of the world in the Christian Science Monitor. A good read, but only with a critical eye. The points made are worthy of attention; they may be, however, only part of the picture.
The situation in Iraq remains volatile. Sadr is a very powerful voice in Iraq, but a complex one. He is intensely nationalistic–adamantly opposed to the US, but also opposed to the Iranian influence in Iraq (although he is a Shia cleric). In some sense he is both a powerful enemy of the US, but also a powerful ally to the American interest in curtailing Iranian influence in the Middle East. We’ll have to see how the US navigates this setback/opportunity.
Tensions have flared up once again in Nigeria. The violent attacks on Christian churches were carried out by a group which calls itself “Boko Haram” (“Western education in forbidden”) that appears to have some measure of contact with other Muslim groups opposed to western influence in Africa. The violence seems to map closely with the demographics of Nigeria–Christian populations in the south, Muslim populations in the north. These simple categories, however, mask deep socio-economic cleavages in Nigeria. Do not attribute the violence to religion alone.
Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, issued a rather stark warning on the health of the global economy. The longer term view presented by her is sharply contrasted with the more benign short term view of the markets. For my money, I would go with Lagarde’s view–the global economy does not appear to be heading in a good direction.
We should expect some cat and mouse games between the US and Iran as Iran begins naval exercises in the Straits of Hormuz. Ships will pass too close to each other and accusations will fly. Let’s hope that the games do not get out of hand.
The economic and political situation in Hungary has been deteriorating for several months. The country’s debt has achieved a “junk” credit rating, and the Fidesz Party has been slowly concentrating power at the expense of political rights. The slow move toward a right-wing non-liberal state is reminiscent of the rise to power of Miklós Horthy in 1920, the first of what would become a long line of right wing nationalist leaders in Europe in the 1920s and 1930s. Let’s hope that the parallel remains superficial.
The Russian protests against the rule of Vladimir Putin continue, adding yet another dimension to the year of protests. Starting with Tunisia, popular dissatisfaction with government has been highly visible in many countries this year. Much of this anger is stimulated by the sense that governments have become corrupt and out of touch with the public at large. We should watch this trend next year to see if it continues or even deepens.
Violence continues in Iraq, fueled primarily by the Sunni-Shia sectarian split. The political power of the Sunni (20% of the population) was established long ago by the British, and it only ended after Saddam Hussein was overthrown by the US invasion. The Shia (60% of the population–Kurds are the other 20%) are now in power, and the transition is going to be very difficult. The removal of American troops has opened up the possibilities for greater violence as the country tries to find a comfortable political equilibrium.
Eric Hobsbawm is one of the world’s great historians. His views on the events of 2011 are worth paying attention to. Those who live through revolutions are usually unaware of the fact that they are in the midst of something significant. Moreover, one can never really predict what the outcome of social movements might be. We all need to be aware of what’s happening and to look for dots to connects that others fail to see.
The spreading of a social movement is a very complex process, although we have tended to obscure its compelxity by attributing mass movements to technologies such as Facebook and Twitter. The Economist published an interesting essay thinking about the Reformation as a social movement and looking at how Luther’s message was transmitted throughout Europe in such a short period of time, unleashing one of the most powerful social movements ever experienced by humanity.
A new development in the euro crisis. The European Central Bank is lending money to European banks at an interest rate of 1%–a half trillion was lent out today. In theory, the banks are turning around and buying sovereign debt (the banks are actually free to do whatever they wish with the money). The increased demand for sovereign debt reduces the interest rates of the governments, in the Spanish and Italian cases dramatically (from about 5% to around 2%). So the banks make a hefty profit (borrowing at 1% and getting 2% in return) and the ECB gets around the prohibition against lending directly to sovereign governments. A very nice strategy as long as none of the governments default, in which case both the banks and the ECB take it on the chin. The other concern is whether this scheme will reduce the incentives toward austerity programs, a development that would discourage the Germans.
Climate change is unquestionably one of the most important issues facing the world in the long run. Its effect over the short-run is less certain, but there are a number of new studies that link violent conflict with patterns associated with climate change. Obviously more work is needed in this area, but we should treat climate change as a national security issue as well as an environmental issue.
Foreign Policy has some interesting videos from North Korea on the death of Kim Jong-il. Some interesting windows into the closed society.
I try to stay abreast of the news and generally only post news reports after I think they have a solid basis. Generally this means that I wait a few days after I read some snippets of things going on to assess whether the stories are substantive. But I very often get surprised, as was this story about action in the Security Council condemning Israeli settlements in the West Bank. This report cam out of the blue and now you all get a chance to assess with me whether it develops into something more.
The less surprising news was the death of Kim Song-il in North Korea. We knew he had a stroke in 2008, and he appeared to have only partially recovered from it. But he died last Saturday, and the news was only released on Monday. It is unlikely that the external powers (the US, China, Russia, South Korea, or Japan) will take any action to destabilize the situation. We will have to see, however, how the North Korean military responds to the new 28 year old Dear Leader.
Violence in Cairo continues to escalate. Today there was massive protest by women, outraged at the treatment of female protesters at the hands of the Egyptian military. I can’t figure out what the military objectives might be–there is no clear end game to trying to repress the protests. We will have to see if the military backs off from this strategy and decides to become more conciliatory to the liberal elements of the protest movement.
A new argument is beginning to flesh out in the field of international relations: that war is diminishing as an instrument of diplomacy. Two of the most prominent theorists making this argument, Joshua Goldstein and Stephen Pinker, published a strong argument in today’s New York Times. They have an incredible array of evidence and logic supporting their point of view. I remain unconvinced at this point in time. The argument is reminiscent of one made by Norman Angell in 1913 in a book entitled The Great Illusion. Needless to say, Angell was profoundly wrong–human beings manage to confound even the most compelling feats of logic.
The last American combat troops have left Iraq (some will remain under very murky conditions, ostensibly as guards to American diplomats but not nearly enough to make much of a difference). The security vacuum will be tempting to both internal groups (Sunnis and Kurds) and to external powers (Iran in defense of the Shia and Saudi Arabia in defense of the Sunnis). I make no secret of the fact that I opposed the war when it began in March 2003 so I am hardly an objective observer. But the US spent over a trillion dollars on the war (most of which came from deficit spending) and lost over 4,000 soldiers. The losses suffered by the Iraqis have not been systematically determined–no body counts were ever done–but were clearly very high. The removal of Saddam Hussein was unquestionably a good thing, but acts such as those are better left to the people and not to outside powers. The Just War criteria–that the resulting peace be better than the peace before the war–was most likely not satisfied.
One of the truly great leaders of the 20th century, Vaclav Havel, has died. He represented the best aspirations of the Europeans and displayed a great vision for the future of Europe in a very difficult time.
The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate. Apparently, the Arab League is getting prepared to ask the UN for assistance, just as it did in the Libyan crisis. I doubt very much that the Security Council is prepared to offer any substantial assistance, given the reluctance of Russia and China to any intervention. We’ll have to watch whether the protests in Russia affect the Russian position on the matter. Putin may look at an intervention as an opportunity to score a foreign policy initiative in order to deflect criticism of his government. Or the Russian protests could stiffen his resolve to reinforce the principle of non-intervention.
Today is the one year anniversary of the beginning of what we now call the “Arab Spring.” When the turmoil in Tunisia started, few expected the protests to spread so widely or to be so decisive. The protests continue in Egypt, and the future there remains uncertain.
The French face an imminent credit downgrade by the credit ratings agencies. Right now, things have quieted down because the European Central Bank has promised to lend money at very low interest rates for a three year period. So the banks are buying the sovereign debt of Italy, Spain, and Portugal to use as collateral for those loans. The difference between the interests rates charged by the ECB and the interest rates earned by the sovereign debt is enough to make a tidy profit (as long as no state defaults). It’s a real economic game of chicken. We’ll see how it turns out.
I apologize for not posting yesterday, but I was at the State Department for the Women in Public Service Project. It was an extraordinary, but overwhelming, event. Many, many good, thoughtful, and interesting ideas. But it is hard to assimilate. There will be many more meetings and I look forward to trying to make some of these ideas real with some wonderful, inspiring people.
Analysts are assessing the results of the climate change talks at Durban. Here’s a Chinese take on the talks. A view from Malta. India. And Russia. It appears as if few are satisfied with the results of the conference.
The eurozone crisis continues to unfold. The Brussels summit appears to have bought some time, but the long-term trend is still profoundly negative. Belgium’s credit rating was downgraded.
More on the drone that landed/crashed in Iran. The story is intriguing, both plausible and implausible at the same time. I doubt that we’ll ever know the truth.
World Politics News 