A new argument is beginning to flesh out in the field of international relations: that war is diminishing as an instrument of diplomacy. Two of the most prominent theorists making this argument, Joshua Goldstein and Stephen Pinker, published a strong argument in today’s New York Times. They have an incredible array of evidence and logic supporting their point of view. I remain unconvinced at this point in time. The argument is reminiscent of one made by Norman Angell in 1913 in a book entitled The Great Illusion. Needless to say, Angell was profoundly wrong–human beings manage to confound even the most compelling feats of logic.
The last American combat troops have left Iraq (some will remain under very murky conditions, ostensibly as guards to American diplomats but not nearly enough to make much of a difference). The security vacuum will be tempting to both internal groups (Sunnis and Kurds) and to external powers (Iran in defense of the Shia and Saudi Arabia in defense of the Sunnis). I make no secret of the fact that I opposed the war when it began in March 2003 so I am hardly an objective observer. But the US spent over a trillion dollars on the war (most of which came from deficit spending) and lost over 4,000 soldiers. The losses suffered by the Iraqis have not been systematically determined–no body counts were ever done–but were clearly very high. The removal of Saddam Hussein was unquestionably a good thing, but acts such as those are better left to the people and not to outside powers. The Just War criteria–that the resulting peace be better than the peace before the war–was most likely not satisfied.
One of the truly great leaders of the 20th century, Vaclav Havel, has died. He represented the best aspirations of the Europeans and displayed a great vision for the future of Europe in a very difficult time.
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