David Igantius of the Washington Post has another post on the Iranian nuclear situation. This piece is a little less dire than the post he ran in February which seemed to indicate that an attack on Iran was imminent. In the more recent post, Ignatius seems to indicate that progress is being made to resoolve the crisis diplomatically, and that Turkey is playing a crucial intermediary role. Let’s hope that progress is indeed being made.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has recommended that sanctions be lifted against Burma because of the recent election and other human rights changes. This step is an important endorsement and could have the effect of solidifying the changes there. I have been impressed by the complicated and delicate diplomacy associated with these changes–it is almost a textbook case of how change can come about non-violently.
One of the best predictors of political protest is the price of food. Unfortunately, those prices have been going up again. The last time prices increased this rapidly (2008) there were food riots in many places in the world. We should be on the watch as the spring unfolds.
The Israeli newspaper, Ha’aretz, is reporting that Iran and its client, Hezbollah, are aiding Syria’s President Assad in his fight against the rebels. The news is not necessarily surprising since Assad has long been allied with Iran. But it does indicate a ratcheting up of the pressure against Iran by tying it to the turmoil in Syria. The other thing to remember is that many of the rebels are supported by Saudi Arabia so both Iran and Saudi Arabia are fighting a proxy war in Syria. There are games within games. The Daily Star, a great newspaper from Lebanon, has an excellent article on how the turmoil in Syria is affecting Iraq.
A 77 year old pensioner in Greece committed suicide in the main square in Athens, and his death has rattled Greek society as it assesses the human costs of the economic crisis it has endured. In fact, suicides have increased dramatically in Greece over the last two years, but this particular one has raised all sorts of questions about the future of Greek society. What remains to be seen is how the death reverberates: will it increase the anger of Greeks leading to more violent protests? Or will it increase the social solidarity in Greece to face the crisis in a more united fashion?
The National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad has secured the town of Timbuktu in Mali and it appears as if the Tuareg have established themselves quite securely in northern Africa. It remains to be seen if the move will spread beyond Mali, but there is no reason to believe that it will be contained within Mali. Thus, the repercussions of the overthrow of Qaddafi in Libya continue to resonate. Overthrowing governmentes is always a very problematic course of action.
Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, and he has written a very disturbing essay on the situation in China. He describes the current state of Chinese society as poised on the brink of a major change due to problems in the governments ability to respond to the rising demands of the population. One should always be careful of essays that foresee some sort of cataclysm (it’s an easy way to get read), but the arguments seem, to my superficial eye, persuasive.
There is a three way race for the Presidency of the World Bank. President Obama has nominated Jim Yong Kim, the President of Dartmouth College for the post, but there is strong support for Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a Nigerian born economist. Most observers believe that Kim will ultimately get the nomination since the US is the largest contributor to the World Bank and therefore has the largest number of votes. But there are good reasons to think about a non-US candidate.
In an article published in a British newspaper, the source of the information that led the Bush Administration to conclude that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction in 2003 has admitted that his story was a lie. His justification was that the lie led to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. But his lie also led to the deaths of over 100,000 people (at the very least). We should keep this story in mind as stories circulate about the nuclear program of Iran.
Despite earlier assurances, the Muslim Brotherhood has announced that it will be fielding a candidate in the Egyptian elections. Ths candidate is generally regarded as a less moderate member of the Brotherhood, but I will freely admit that I am not in any position to make a judgment on that assessment. The change in policy, however, does increase the likelihood that the US and Israel will regard Egypt with more suspicion. I will watch more carefully to try to find out the reaction within Egypt.
Unemployment in Europe has reached an all-time high. The news was not unexpected, but it suggests that world economic growth will slow down this year. The US and China are apparently still growing according to the index typically used (the Purchasing Manufacturers Index). WHether they will pull Europe up, or whether Europe will pull the others down is the big question for 2012.
The readings for the quiz on 4 April are: George W. Bush, Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People, 20 September 2001, and Remarks by the President on Ending the War in Iraq, 21 October 2011.
The blog articles are from 29 March to 2 April (I missed a few days).
The world continues to dither while the violence in Syria continues. Despite the efforts of UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, the cease fire has not held, and close to 9,000 Syrians have died. The US has decided to send limited humanitarian aid to Syria, and other states are considering arming the rebels. All this limited action, however, does not seem to have dissuaded Assad from staying in power.
Amazingly, the reformist party in Burma has claimed victory, taking 40 out of 45 seats in the Parliament. If the results hold, then there will be a dramatic change in Burma, a country that has long suffered under military rule. Let’s hope that the military doesn’t intervene and cancel out the election.
Henry Kissinger is one of the most prominent realists in the world, and he has written an op-ed piece for the Washington Post about how the United States should address the continuing unrest of the Arab Spring. He raises some important questions about the role of humanitarian intervention and what he regards as the “Isalmist” tendencies of the movements in the Middle East. I disagree with a lot of what he says, but his opinion is definitely worth considering.
One of the bravest women in the world is Aung San Suu Kyi and after many years of repression she is finally leading her supporters in an election in Burma (I continue to refuse the name Myanmar until I am convinced that the people of Burma approve of the name change imposed by the military junta). I doubt that the election will be completely fair, but the fact that she is being allowed to run is an important step forward for the Burmese people. Patience and perseverance ultimately pay off, but that course of action is very difficult to maintain. The lessons of Gandhi, King, and Mandela, however, all suggest that it can change the world.
Gary Sick has written extensively on politics in the Middle East, and he has written a piece for CNN entitled “What if Israel Bombs Iran?” It is a fairly detailed of how such an attack might play out (it is not comprehensive, but it hits the important points).
President Obama has imposed another set of sanctions against Iran. Any foreign bank found to be handling Iranian transactions will be barred from operating in the US. There’s a three-month grace period from today, but the sanctions will significantly affect many countries still buying Iranian oil (most of which are in South and East Asia). I suspect that many of these countries will find ways to avoid the sanctions (Iran, for example, is providing Syria with an oil tanker to ship oil to China–giving Syria an incredible boost to its governmental revenues), but they will still have a major effect on the Iranian economy. Iran will probably become more eager to engage the West in negotiations, but I doubt that its nuclear program will slowdown at all.
The pressure for reform in the US/European/Japanese domination of the global economy is slowly increasing, as the emerging nations demand a greater voice in the decision-making of the IMF and World Bank. The calls for reform are intense, but the BRICS are riven with their own internal disputes. I doubt, however, that the pressures for reform will diminish any time soon.
The situation in Mali remains tense, but the rebel group is getting little in the way of outside support. Right now it appears as if there is a stand-off between the government and the rebels, but without some external aid, the rebels will be hard-pressed to maintain their position.
Ha’aretz is a lefty newspaper in Israel but it also has unusually good sources in the Israeli government. In the most recent issue an article suggests that the Americans are not taking the Israeli threat to attack Iran seriously enough and predicts that such an attack is likely before Christmas. Note–this deadline differs from the earlier prediction made by US Defense Secretary Panetta, but might be more realistic given the timing of the Presidential elections in the US (perhaps a concession made by Netanyahu to Obama during their recent meeting). The matter is further complicated by the growing cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel–perhaps the military strike will start in the Caucasus. If so, there’s no surer way to involve both Turkey and Russia in the conflict. So more to think about and assess.
There’s an interesting article in The Guardian (another lefty newspaper, but this time from Britain) about an extraordinary intelligence failure on the part of the US CIA and FBI prior to September 11, 2001. Apparently the Taliban had contracted with a joint US-UK telecommunications firm to build a telephone system in Afghanistan. The possibility created the potential for US intelligence to tap into the Afghan network to an extraordinary degree. According to the article: “Because the Taliban wanted American equipment for their new phone network, this would allow the FBI and NSA, the National Security Agency, to build extra circuits into all the equipment before it was flown out to Afghanistan for use. Once installed, these extra circuits would allow the FBI and NSA to record or listen live to every single landline and mobile phone call in Afghanistan. The FBI would know the time the call was made and its duration. They would know the caller’s name, the number dialled, and even the caller’s PIN.” The opportunity was wasted because the CIA and FBI fought over which agency would be in charge of the operation. It was finally approved on September 8, 2001. If the agencies had not been fighting, the US would have known everything about the planned attack on the US.
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