13 April 2012   Leave a comment

Hard economic times often leads to right-wing politics.  This development seems to be happening in Greece.  From the New York Times:

RACHEL DONADIO and DIMITRIS BOUNIAS, “Hard Times Lift Greece’s Anti-Immigrant Fringe,” April 12, 2012,
ATHENS — On a recent morning in the upper-middle-class neighborhood of Papagou here, members of the Greek ultranationalist group Golden Dawn stood at an outdoor vegetable market campaigning for the coming national elections.

“This is our party’s program, for a clean Greece, only for Greeks, a safe Greece,” Ilias Panagiotaros, the group’s spokesman and a candidate for office, said as he handed out leaflets.

He approached an older woman, who recounted how a relative had been robbed of about $800. “They threw her on the ground, they took the 600 euros she had withdrawn from the bank to pay for her husband’s nursing home,” the woman said. “She was even a Communist, and she told me, ‘I’m going to Golden Dawn to report this.’ ”

The exchange was a telling sign of how the hard-core group — better known for its violent tangles with immigrants in downtown Athens and for the Nazi salutes that some members perform at rallies — has been trying to broaden its appeal, capitalizing on fears that illegal immigration has grown out of control at a time when the economy is bleeding jobs.

Many polls indicate that in the national elections scheduled for May 6, Golden Dawn may surpass the 3 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament. The group has been campaigning on the streets, something that mainstream politicians have avoided for fear of angry reactions by voters who blame them for Greece’s economic collapse.

But even if Golden Dawn fails to enter Parliament, it has already had an impact on the broader political debate. In response to the fears over immigration and rising crime, Greece’s two leading parties — the Socialist Party and the center-right New Democracy Party — have also tapped into nationalist sentiment and are tacking hard right in a campaign in which immigration has become as central as the economy.

Experts say the group is thriving where the Greek state seems absent, the most virulent sign of how the economic collapse has empowered fringe groups while eroding the political mainstream, a situation that some Greek news outlets have begun comparing to Weimar Germany.

“Greek society at this point is a laboratory of extreme-right-wing evolution,” said Nicos Demertzis, a political scientist at the University of Athens. “We are going through an unprecedented financial crisis; we are a fragmented society without strong civil associations” and with “generalized corruption in all the administration levels.”

With what critics say is a poorly policed border with Turkey, Greece is seen as an entry point for illegal immigrants, some of them asylum seekers but most intent on moving to more promising economic terrain in Northern and Western Europe. But many of the immigrants remain in Greece or are returned there after being deported from other countries in Europe. This has stoked fears here of an onslaught of illegal immigrants, who economists say bear little or no responsibility for Greece’s economic troubles but who make easy scapegoats for politicians across the spectrum.

The Socialists, who were in power when Greece asked for a foreign bailout, have seen their popularity plummet, and they are desperate for a way to reconnect with voters. This month, Greece’s public order minister, Michalis Chrisochoidis, a Socialist in the interim government of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, said Greece would set up detention centers for illegal immigrants. And the Socialist health minister caused a stir when he said that Greece would require illegal immigrants to undergo checks for infectious diseases.

But the established parties are also warning of the dangers of extremism. Last week, Evangelos Venizelos, who is running in the national elections as Socialist Party leader, warned that “Parliament cannot become a place for those nostalgic for fascism and Nazism.”

Golden Dawn is unabashedly nostalgic for both. Founded in the early 1980s by sympathizers of the military dictatorship that governed Greece from 1967 to 1974, Golden Dawn has always espoused a neo-Nazi ideology. Its symbol clearly resembles the swastika, and copies of “Mein Kampf” and books on the racial superiority of the Greeks are on prominent display in its Athens headquarters.

In the early 1990s, it capitalized on widespread opposition to the use of the name Macedonia by a former Yugoslav republic; a Greek region shares that name. And in recent years, Golden Dawn has muted the neo-Nazi talk and focused on anti-immigrant actions in downtown Athens, where the number of illegal immigrants, most from South Asia, Albania and Africa, has exploded.

The group has fostered grass-roots “citizens’ groups” that it says are intended to protect Greek citizens from crime by immigrants but that critics say are just vigilante squads.

In a high-profile episode last May, a Greek man was stabbed to death in Athens as he walked to his car to take his pregnant wife to the hospital. In response, Golden Dawn and other extreme-right-wing groups went on an anti-immigrant rampage that lasted for several days.

“Up to now, Golden Dawn was not politically dangerous but actually dangerous,” said Tassos Kostopoulos, an expert on Greek politics. He and others said Golden Dawn had historically had ties to the Greek state, especially the police. In a television interview last year, Mr. Chrisochoidis, the Socialist public order minister, said that when he took office in 2009, “guys from Golden Dawn and a number of fascist types were participating in actions that assisted the police.”

Athanasios Kokkalakis, the Greek police spokesman, acknowledged episodes of racist violence in Athens but said that the police force had not verified ties between its members and Golden Dawn.

Golden Dawn has been running unsuccessfully in national elections since 1994, but it took a big step toward legitimization in 2010, when its leader, Nikos Michaloliakos, was elected to the Athens City Council. In an interview, Mr. Michaloliakos called the group “national socialists” and said it was concerned about crime and the financial crisis.

He said that the group opposed Greece’s agreement with its foreign lenders and that the country’s political leadership was too beholden to “international bankers.” The Nazi salutes by Golden Dawn members were not official policy, he said, adding that “we can’t control thousands” of people. (Soon after his election, Mr. Michaloliakos himself was captured on video doing a Nazi salute in the City Council.)

Asked if he believed that the Holocaust had happened, Mr. Michaloliakos said, “I think all history is written by the winners.”

Another leading Golden Dawn official, Ilias Kasidiaris, was more blunt. “The main view in Europe is that six million Jews were killed. History has shown that this is a lie,” he said in an interview.

Mr. Kasidiaris added that he believed that all illegal immigrants should be “deported immediately,” and that Greece should plant minefields along its border with Turkey “Not to kill the immigrants,” he said, “but to clearly define an area that would stop anyone from thinking of accessing the country.”

Although Golden Dawn is clearly still cozy with neo-Nazi ideology, it has also tapped into rising Greek nationalist sentiment, which is now anti-German. “It’s right to hate Germany, because it is still the leader of the banksters and the European Union,” Mr. Michaloliakos, the group’s leader, said, using a derogatory term for bankers.

It remains to be seen whether Golden Dawn is truly interested in transforming itself from a collection of street fighters into a political party. The group’s leaders repeatedly refused to allow reporters to attend their party meetings, saying it would violate members’ privacy. The leaders claim that the group has 12,000 members, but that figure could not be independently verified.

Back at the vegetable market, as Golden Dawn members handed out newspapers, a few South Asian immigrants who work there stood quietly off to the side. A founding member of Golden Dawn, Michalis Karakostas, gave a reporter his phone number.

“If Pakistanis squat your front door, call me, not the cops,” he said.

There appears to be turmoil within the ranks for the Chinese leadership.  Characteristically, the media in China are silent about the fate of Bo Xilai, a leader from Chongqing, who has fallen from grace.  But the microblogs within China are buzzing with all sorts of rumors about the events that lead to his downfall.  The story actually reads like a spy novel, with reports of an American businessman allegedly poisoned after a soured business deal with Mr. Bo’s wife.  There is, however, a deeper undercurrent that suggests a great deal of palace intrigue, and the prospect of political turmoil within China is troubling.

The North Korean missile launch was a highly visible failure.  One cannot help but wonder why the North Koreans decided to stake so much prestige on such a difficult technological endeavor.  It was all timed to celebrate the hundred-year anniversary of the birth of the founder of North Korea, so there were many other distractions for the North Korean people.  We should expect the North Koreans to do something dramatic, like test a nuclear bomb, in order to demonstrate their technological prowess.

Posted April 13, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

12 April 2012   Leave a comment

Nearly 22% of all Greeks are now unemployed as the government’s austerity measures begin to deepen.  At this rate (nearly 50% higher than this time last year) the government will not be able to meet its budget requirements as set by the EU as more people will claim unemployment benefits and fewer people will pay taxes.  The situation is virtually hopeless and it seems as if another default is inevitable.  The government will hold elections in early May and we’ll see what the people demand.

As the economic crisis continues in Europe, it was likely that there would be a backlash against globalization and there is no more likely place for such a movement to take steam than in France.  It appears as if President Sarkozy is riding such a sentiment as he prepares for the election he was predicted to lose.  Perhaps the gambit will allow him to stay in office (I wonder what the German reaction to that outcome will be?)

North Korea appears ready to launch its satellite into space.  It is currently waiting for the weather to clear (apparently Kim Jong-eun cannot control the weather as readily as his father).  Whats is most interesting about this development is how little North Korea seems to care about the reaction of the rest of the world to its activities.  The new government seems to be quite intent on proving its independence.

Posted April 12, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

Quiz for American Foreign Policy, 9 April 2012   Leave a comment

The quiz will be on the following articles:  Zakaria, Sanger, and Walt (Ignore the Nye article–the link is broken).  I will also ask questions about the blog articles from 5-8 April.

Posted April 9, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

8 April 2012   Leave a comment

Charles Kupchan, a noted IR theorist, has written a perceptive op-ed piece for the New York Times, on the challenges facing the United States as power begins to redistribute among the other major powers.  It is a provocative piece with some very interesting insights.  The question of governance is clearly the issue that matters the most.

Hopes for a cease-fire in Syria faded quickly as President Assad made some difficult conditions for its implementation.  With that alternative no longer viable, it is clear that something else needs to be done.  Turkey, as the country most directly affected by the flood of refugees from Syria, will likely take action to create some sort of enclave/staging area for the rebels.  Obviously, the step is one of self-protection, but it will also signal an escalation of the conflict from a civil war to a regional conflict.  We’ll watch what Turkey does over the next few days.

The Greek elections will probably be held sometime early in May, and the recent polling suggests that the two major parties may not get sufficient votes to create a ruling coalition.  If that is the case, there are a number of more radical parties which may become pivotal in determining the next government.  Some of these fringe parties include a Nazi-like party (Golden Dawn) which is hard to believe in a country that endured brutal Nazi rule during World War II.

Posted April 8, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

7 April 2012   Leave a comment

Iran has rejected Turkey as the location for its talks with the West on its nuclear program.  The rejection has much to do with the competition between Iran and Turkey for regional hegemony.  Both countries style themselves as the dominant Middle Eastern power–a traditional self-perception on the part of Iran, a new identity for Turkey.  The emergence of Turkish aspirations is interesting: it reflect Turkey’s decision to turn away from EU membership and instead  focus on Central Asia and the Middle East.  It is a symbolic turn that parallels the difficulties of Europe and the United States, and the emergence of new powers to the east.  The tectonic plates of world politics are certainly shifting.  We’ll see if the West can come up with a more palatable venue for the nuclear negotiations.

Samir Amin, a very prominent Marxist IR theorist, has published a long essay in AllAfrica entitled “Africa: The South Challenges Globalization.”  It is a very long essay so I won’t ask any questions on the American foreign policy quiz about it.  But for those of you who are interested in thinking about alternatives to the Western world order, Amin offers a very cogent possibility.

The funeral for Dimitris Christoulas, the 77-year old pensioner who shot himself in Athens, turned violent as demonstrators assaulted a police officer.   The suicide note read as follows:

“The Tsolakoglou government has annihilated all traces for my survival, which was based on a very dignified pension that I alone paid for 35 years with no help from the state. And since my advanced age does not allow me a way of dynamically reacting (although if a fellow Greek were to grab a Kalashnikov, I would be right behind him), I see no other solution than this dignified end to my life, so I don’t find myself fishing through garbage cans for my sustenance. I believe that young people with no future, will one day take up arms and hang the traitors of this country at Syntagma square, just like the Italians did to Mussolini in 1945″

The note undoubtedly inflamed many people.  As the Greek elections near, it is hard to see how further violence can be avoided.

Posted April 7, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

6 April 2012   Leave a comment

David Igantius of the Washington Post has another post on the Iranian nuclear situation.  This piece is a little less dire than the post he ran in February which seemed to indicate that an attack on Iran was imminent.  In the more recent post, Ignatius seems to indicate that progress is being made to resoolve the crisis diplomatically, and that Turkey is playing a crucial intermediary role.  Let’s hope that progress is indeed being made.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has recommended that sanctions be lifted against Burma because of the recent election and other human rights changes.  This step is an important endorsement and could have the effect of solidifying the changes there.  I have been impressed by the complicated and delicate diplomacy associated with these changes–it is almost a textbook case of how change can come about non-violently.

One of the best predictors of political protest is the price of food.  Unfortunately, those prices have been going up again.  The last time prices increased this rapidly (2008) there were food riots in many places in the world.  We should be on the watch as the spring unfolds.

Posted April 6, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

5 April 2012   Leave a comment

The Israeli newspaper, Ha’aretz, is reporting that Iran and its client, Hezbollah, are aiding Syria’s President Assad in his fight against the rebels.   The news is not necessarily surprising since Assad has long been allied with Iran.  But it does indicate a ratcheting up of the pressure against Iran by tying it to the turmoil in Syria.  The other thing to remember is that many of the rebels are supported by Saudi Arabia so both Iran and Saudi Arabia are fighting a proxy war in Syria.  There are games within games.  The Daily Star, a great newspaper from Lebanon, has an excellent article on how the turmoil in Syria is affecting Iraq.

A 77 year old pensioner in Greece committed suicide in the main square in Athens, and his death has rattled Greek society as it assesses the human costs of the economic crisis it has endured.   In fact, suicides have increased dramatically in Greece over the last two years, but this particular one has raised all sorts of questions about the future of Greek society.  What remains to be seen is how the death reverberates:  will it increase the anger of Greeks leading to more violent protests?  Or will it increase the social solidarity in Greece to face the crisis in a more united fashion?

The National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad has secured the town of Timbuktu in Mali and it appears as if the Tuareg have established themselves quite securely in northern Africa.  It remains to be seen if the move will spread beyond Mali, but there is no reason to believe that it will be contained within Mali.  Thus, the repercussions of the overthrow of Qaddafi in Libya continue to resonate.  Overthrowing governmentes is always a very problematic course of action.

Posted April 6, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

4 April 2012   Leave a comment

Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, and he has written a very disturbing essay on the situation in China.  He describes the current state of Chinese society as poised on the brink of a major change due to problems in the governments ability to respond to the rising demands of the population.  One should always be careful of essays that foresee some sort of cataclysm (it’s an easy way to get read), but the arguments seem, to my superficial eye, persuasive.

Posted April 5, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

3 April 2012   Leave a comment

There is a three way race for the Presidency of the World Bank.  President Obama has nominated Jim Yong Kim, the President of Dartmouth College for the post, but there is strong support for  Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a Nigerian born economist.   Most observers believe that Kim will ultimately get the nomination since the US is the largest contributor to the World Bank and therefore has the largest number of votes.  But there are good reasons to think about a non-US candidate.

Posted April 3, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

2 April 2012   Leave a comment

In an article published in a British newspaper, the source of the information that led the Bush Administration to conclude that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction in 2003 has admitted that his story was a lie.  His justification was that the lie led to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.  But his lie also led to the deaths of over 100,000 people (at the very least).  We should keep this story in mind as stories circulate about the nuclear program of Iran.

Despite earlier assurances, the Muslim Brotherhood has announced that it will be fielding a candidate in the Egyptian elections.  Ths candidate is generally regarded as a less moderate member of the Brotherhood, but I will freely admit that I am not in any position to make a judgment on that assessment.  The change in policy, however, does increase the likelihood that the US and Israel will regard Egypt with more suspicion.  I will watch more carefully to try to find out the reaction within Egypt.

Unemployment in Europe has reached an all-time high.  The news was not unexpected, but it suggests that world economic growth will slow down this year.   The US and China are apparently still growing according to the index typically used (the Purchasing Manufacturers Index).  WHether they will pull Europe up, or whether Europe will pull the others down is the big question for 2012.

Posted April 2, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics