The US has announced that it is shifting the bulk of its naval forces to the Pacific area. Currently, the US fleet is split 50-50 between the Atlantic and the Pacific; Defense Secretary Panetta announced the by 2020 the split will be 60-40. Needless to say, the Chinese are not pleased with the shift, but the growth of the Chinese military made such a response almost inevitable. Thus are most escalation cycles born.
Former Egyptian leader, Hosni Mubarak, has been given a life sentence for crimes committed curing his tenure. The sentence has displeased both his opponents and his supporters, leading to protests in Egypt. No sentence would have pleased everyone–we will have to wait and see how deep the protests go. Needless to say, the sentence will complicate the upcoming election.
Professor Walt has written another interesting essay, trying to answer the question for Americans: “Why do they hate us?” I don’t think the question is a fair or true one, but Professor Walt raises an interesting perspective, one most would not expect from one of the world’s premier realists.
Andrew Bacevich is one of the most articulate leftist critics of American foreign policy, and he has just published an essay on the changing culture of the American military under President Obama. His critique echoes the concerns of many others about the growing divide between the American military and American society occasioned by the increased professionalization with the military. One may be quite happy that the draft is no longer in effect, but there is a price to pay when ordinary Americans have no essential civic connection to military service.
We’ve long suspected that the US and Israel were responsible for the cyberattacks against the Iranian nuclear program, and the New York Times has confirmed those suspicions. The attacks were highly sophisticated and ushered in a new age of conflict. While the attacks certainly delayed the Iranian program, it did not stop it. Computer programming, however, is hardly the exclusive skill of any single nation. We can expect similar attacks to escalate in the future.
The Globe and Mail (Canada) has run an excellent article on how Germany has fared throughout the eurozone crisis. German unemployment is very low, and the interest rate of German bonds is extraordinarily low. Germany has benefited from the crisis because the euro has declined in value which has boosted German exports. One wonders, however, how much time will pass before the crisis reaches Germany.
UNICEF has issued its most recent report on child poverty in the rich countries, and it is a sobering report. Perhaps the most striking finding is that the US and Romania have child poverty rates in excess of 20%, the highest rates in any of the 35 countries surveyed.
Canada is moving to defend its claims to Arctic territory by using drones to conduct surveillance. According to the Financial Times:
- “The Polar Hawk, a derivative of the Northrop Grumman’s Global Hawk, produced in the US, is able to take a picture of the entire North West passage four times in the course of one mission. The aircraft, which is robotically operated, with human oversight, can fly at 60,000ft and stay aloft for missions that usually range between 24 hours and 35 hours. The US operates a similar aircraft over its own Arctic territory.”
Arctic territory is claimed by Denmark, Norway, Canada, Russia and the US, and as the polar ice cap continues to melt, the belief is that the region has become strategically more valuable.
The Irish will vote tomorrow on the fiscal treaty proposed by the EU. The treaty calls for very strict fiscal rules, including enforcement mechanisms on budget deficits and debt. The treaty is an incredible intrusion on the traditional conception of sovereignty and has been demanded by Germany as the price for its continued financial support of the EU. The vote will be an important indicator of the future of the Union.
The massacre in the Syrian town of Houla has led to more dramatic diplomatic action on the part of many nations and the United Nations. But Russia remains opposed to any international action, instead blaming the Syrian rebels for the deaths. There do not appear to be any new moves being planned at this time, but Assad clearly now knows that he will be prosecuted as a war criminal when the violence ends. The chances for an easing of the violence therefore seems remote, and humanitarian intervention no longer seems to be a viable policy option for the international community.
A new computer virus named Flame has been identified as the newest virus in cyberwar. It apparently has been around for about 2 years, but is only now being introduced to the world. It joins Stuxnet and Duqu as particularly powerful, insidious, and targeted viruses that could only have been developed by an entity as complex as a nation-state (read, the US, Russia, China, or Israel). This newest military frontier is rapidly becoming the battlefield of choice.
Spain now faces the problem of bailing out its banks on the open market. The European Central bank has refused to participate in the recapitalization so Spain has no choice but to issue new bonds, even though the interest rates on its most recent bonds have come close to 7%. We’ll see how the markets react to this sign of no confidence. It could be very ugly for the Spanish.
The Greek economic crisis, by itself, would not be a major issue for the eurozone–the fear has always been that a Greek default would spread fear that would jeopardize larger economies in the eurozone, specifically Spain and Italy. The Spanish government is not as indebted as the Greek government, but the Spanish banks are hopelessly indebted. To help out the banks, the Spanish government is lending money to the banks, but no one believes that the Spanish government has enough money to shore up the banks. Today, panic began to set in as Spanish borrowing rates neared the crisis level of 7%. It is very difficult to see how the disintegration of the eurozone can be contained–the best one can hope for is that the unraveling can be managed so that it proceeds slowly.
It seems as if Fatah and Hamas are having serious talks about a unity government for Palestinians. Fatah, in the West bank, and Hamas, in the Gaza Strip, have been at odds since 2007 and the unwillingness of both sides to compromise has seriously weakened the Palestinian cause. There have been false in the past, but it seems as if this negotiation is being more seriously pursued.
There have been two more self-immolations in protest of Chinese rule in Tibet. There have been almost two dozen self-immolations in the last 14 months, but these last two took place in the capital of Tibet, Lhasa. The capital is under very tight Chinese control, so the protesters were very determined and organized.
The head of the IMF, Christine Legarde, issued a stern rebuke to Greece, saying that she had greater sympathy for the genuinely poor of the world than for the economic distress of the Greeks. While the statement is, no doubt, true, nothing could be more likely to inflame Greek sentiments against the austerity policies being imposed on them. We’ll see if the comments give a boost to the Radical Left Coalition in the 17 June elections.
2011 was yet another record year for the emissions of CO2, putting the world far behind track on avoiding climate change. While China has made tremendous progress in reducing its carbon intensity, the fact remains that its overall emissions keep on rising. The really depressing fact is that one would have expected emissions to have gone down slightly because of the price of gasoline. Apparently, nothing persuades us to consume less.
All the optimism about the talks with Iran evaporated today, as the talks in Moscow broke down. There was apparently a total unwillingness on both sides to compromise–the Western power’s offer of reinstating trade in aircraft parts was laughable. Iran has made the determination that President Obama will not sanction an attack on Iran until after the November election and made no concessions at all. More talks are scheduled, but it is hard to see the point of further discussions. Unfortunately, the Financial Times ended its article on the negotiations with this sentence:
“And while negotiators await the outcome of the Moscow talks, contingency planning for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is intensifying in the US and Israel.”
The violence in Syria continues with a government attack on the town of Houla. Over 90 people were killed, including 32 children. There were the standard words of outrage emanating from capitals all over the world, but there was no sign of any concrete action. The international failure to act is comparable to the failure to intervene in Rwanda. Fewer people have been killed so far in Syria, but the violence has been going on for over a year.
At a time of tight budgets, military spending is getting a close look. Foreign Policy posted an interesting article about the military value of aircraft carriers–truly one of the most expensive instruments of war ever devised. One wonders if they are worth the expense.
The first round of voting in Egypt has yielded two candidates for a run-off election: the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mursi, and a former Mubarak associate, Shafiq. Shafiq takes great pride in being a “strong” leader and has raised concern among more liberal Egyptians. But doubts also remain about the commitment of the Muslim Brotherhood in a secular government. It will be a very tough election.
One of the continuing protests against the policy of austerity has been in Canada, as the government decided to raise fees for university students. The protests have not received a great deal of attention, but, in an attempt to stop them, the Canadian government passed new laws against public protests. Predictably, those laws simply fueled greater protests, and those last night were among the worst so far. I doubt that the government will back down, so I would expect more protests in the short term.
The negotiations between the Western powers and Iran in Baghdad did not yield any breakthrough. But there is an agreement to meet again in Moscow in a month. It is difficult to interpret the impasse since all sides are seemingly adamant. Israeli Prime Minster Netanyahu regards the talks as nothing more than a stalling action, and indicated that Israel might not consider any agreement reached as binding on its policies toward Iran.
There was virtually no good news anywhere for the global economy today. All the signs indicated that China, Europe, and the US were experiencing slowdowns. Europe, in particular, got hammered as investors fled from the euro which has lost 5% of its value in the last three weeks. It seems clear that the EU has decided that Greece must leave the eurozone and everyone is getting ready to withstand that storm. June 17th will decide Greece’s fate–we’ll see if the elections produce a viable government.
Elections are being held in Egypt for the first time in many years. The field of candidates is quite crowded and there is a high likelihood that a run-off election will be necessary sometime in June. But the election pits secularists against religious parties and the entire world will be watching to assess the outcome. Regardless of who wins or loses, the simple act of holding free elections is a major step away from the dictatorship the Egyptian people have suffered under for so many years.
The IAEA talks with Iran in Baghdad have apparently gone far better than expected. We don’t really know the details yet and there is always the chance that the talks will break down, but the tone of optimism is unmistakable. The stumbling block in the past has always been on the issue of IAEA access to the enriching facilities in Iran. The Iranians may only be playing for time, and the P5+1 are willing conspirators to a delay. But the embargo on Iran is clearly hurting the Iranian economy, so there is a reason to think that progress may be occurring.
The Economist has published a highly intriguing essay on the role of human beings in climate change. I recommend the essay for the way it changes the way one thinks about a problem.
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