The inability of the United Nations to intervene effectively in Syria has once again raised the question whether the Security Council can ever fulfill its mandate. Major changes are probably necessary in the structure of the Council, not surprisingly since it was created in 1945 when the world was a vastly different place. Here is an interesting analysis of the possibilities for change.
The Palestinian Authority has indicated that it is willing to accept “non-member state” status in the United Nations. It had earlier tried to obtain member status, but that effort died because of the threat of a US veto. Non-member status is a step up from the PA’s current observer status and requires only a majority vote within the General Assembly, side-stepping the veto threat in the Security Council. The US and Israel will fight this move, but I suspect that the PA has the votes.
There are reports that Spain will ask the EU to bail out its banking system. This step is unprecedented and contrary to eurozone rules. The reports are that the request will be made on Saturday and we’ll see how Germany responds. There has been a softening of the German position in recent weeks, but bailing out the banking system in a member state opens up a real can of worms as far as sovereignty is concerned. We live in interesting times.
The opposition forces in Syria appear to be well-armed, but we don”t know who supplies them. Most have assumed that the arms are smuggled in and paid for by Saudi Arabia and/or sympathetic Western governments. The truth, however, is a little more mundane: the weapons are purchased through prisoner ransoms from the Syrian army itself. The greed of the individuals keeps the violence going. The price is paid by innocent lives.
Some countries are called “The” as in The United States. Others, like Ukraine and Congo, don’t have the definite article in their name. A curious feature of language and the BBC explores how the difference evolved.
US-Pakistani relations are about as bad as they ever have been. There are numerous reasons why this state of affairs exists, but it seems as if matters are reaching a breaking point. Pakistan is counting on the US needing Pakistani logistical support for the war in Afghanistan, but that dependence is lessening every day. It’s hard to imagine a complete rupture of relations, but it is probably safe to say that the special relationship is over.
Another massacre is being reported in Syria, with many noncombatants killed, some by stabbing. After 15 months of violence, it seems as if Syria is entering into a full-fledged civil war, although the opposition movement still seems to be incoherent and uncoordinated. The number of platitudinous statements coming out of the diplomatic corps is reaching an all-time high, but effective action still seems quite remote.
National Public Radio interviewed Joseph Stiglitz on his new book on income inequality in the United States. Stiglitz (an Amherst grad) is a Nobel Prize winner who has been a persistent critic of contemporary economic policy. The interview is intelligent and compelling.
The BBC has done a review of the policy positions taken by the two candidates in the Egyptian presidential election. Ahmed Shafiq, an official from the Mubarak regime, is one of the candidates, although it is hard to believe that someone with his background could have the confidence of those who participated in the revolution against Mubarak. Muhammed Mursi is the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood. The second round of the election is scheduled for 16-17 June–the Greek elections are also on the 17th. It should be an interesting day.
Armenian and Azerbaijani forces have exchanged fire across their border. Relations between the two states have historically been tense, and the two states fought a war over the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan in the 1990s. There has been a formal cease fire, but it has been spotty at best, and it appears as if tensions are on the rise again.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin is in China and the Chinese leadership has received him warmly. Russia and China have apparently closed ranks on the issue of Syria, arguing that there should be no UN intervention in that state. The refusal of the two countries to even consider humanitarian intervention in what is now a full-fledged civil war means that there is little hope to bring aid to the Syrian people.
Stephen Walt has reported on a 20-country survey of what content is being taught in the field of international relations at the college level. His review is fascinating, noting some of the regional variations in the courses. But the 3500 scholars surveyed generally cover the field in a manner consistent with how the subject is taught in the 5 College system.
The number of issues raised by Greek economic turmoil is virtually impossible to tally. Insurance companies have now refused to insure Greek contracts to exporters, so Greece, heavily dependent on imports, is running out of a number of important items. These shortages make it impossible for the Greek economy to function, and thus the debt situation simply deepens. We are witnessing a vicious spiral downward from which there seems to be no escape other than for Greece to leave the euro.
According to the German journal, Der Spiegel, Israel is fitting nuclear warheads on missiles carried by submarines built by Germany to Israeli specifications. The revelation is extraordinary, since Israel will neither confirm or deny that it possesses nuclear weapons. The news has yet to be carried by any American media source, and it certainly complicates the strong non-proliferation stand the US has taken with Iran.
The US has announced that it is shifting the bulk of its naval forces to the Pacific area. Currently, the US fleet is split 50-50 between the Atlantic and the Pacific; Defense Secretary Panetta announced the by 2020 the split will be 60-40. Needless to say, the Chinese are not pleased with the shift, but the growth of the Chinese military made such a response almost inevitable. Thus are most escalation cycles born.
Former Egyptian leader, Hosni Mubarak, has been given a life sentence for crimes committed curing his tenure. The sentence has displeased both his opponents and his supporters, leading to protests in Egypt. No sentence would have pleased everyone–we will have to wait and see how deep the protests go. Needless to say, the sentence will complicate the upcoming election.
Professor Walt has written another interesting essay, trying to answer the question for Americans: “Why do they hate us?” I don’t think the question is a fair or true one, but Professor Walt raises an interesting perspective, one most would not expect from one of the world’s premier realists.
Andrew Bacevich is one of the most articulate leftist critics of American foreign policy, and he has just published an essay on the changing culture of the American military under President Obama. His critique echoes the concerns of many others about the growing divide between the American military and American society occasioned by the increased professionalization with the military. One may be quite happy that the draft is no longer in effect, but there is a price to pay when ordinary Americans have no essential civic connection to military service.
We’ve long suspected that the US and Israel were responsible for the cyberattacks against the Iranian nuclear program, and the New York Times has confirmed those suspicions. The attacks were highly sophisticated and ushered in a new age of conflict. While the attacks certainly delayed the Iranian program, it did not stop it. Computer programming, however, is hardly the exclusive skill of any single nation. We can expect similar attacks to escalate in the future.
The Globe and Mail (Canada) has run an excellent article on how Germany has fared throughout the eurozone crisis. German unemployment is very low, and the interest rate of German bonds is extraordinarily low. Germany has benefited from the crisis because the euro has declined in value which has boosted German exports. One wonders, however, how much time will pass before the crisis reaches Germany.
UNICEF has issued its most recent report on child poverty in the rich countries, and it is a sobering report. Perhaps the most striking finding is that the US and Romania have child poverty rates in excess of 20%, the highest rates in any of the 35 countries surveyed.
Canada is moving to defend its claims to Arctic territory by using drones to conduct surveillance. According to the Financial Times:
- “The Polar Hawk, a derivative of the Northrop Grumman’s Global Hawk, produced in the US, is able to take a picture of the entire North West passage four times in the course of one mission. The aircraft, which is robotically operated, with human oversight, can fly at 60,000ft and stay aloft for missions that usually range between 24 hours and 35 hours. The US operates a similar aircraft over its own Arctic territory.”
Arctic territory is claimed by Denmark, Norway, Canada, Russia and the US, and as the polar ice cap continues to melt, the belief is that the region has become strategically more valuable.
The Irish will vote tomorrow on the fiscal treaty proposed by the EU. The treaty calls for very strict fiscal rules, including enforcement mechanisms on budget deficits and debt. The treaty is an incredible intrusion on the traditional conception of sovereignty and has been demanded by Germany as the price for its continued financial support of the EU. The vote will be an important indicator of the future of the Union.
The massacre in the Syrian town of Houla has led to more dramatic diplomatic action on the part of many nations and the United Nations. But Russia remains opposed to any international action, instead blaming the Syrian rebels for the deaths. There do not appear to be any new moves being planned at this time, but Assad clearly now knows that he will be prosecuted as a war criminal when the violence ends. The chances for an easing of the violence therefore seems remote, and humanitarian intervention no longer seems to be a viable policy option for the international community.
A new computer virus named Flame has been identified as the newest virus in cyberwar. It apparently has been around for about 2 years, but is only now being introduced to the world. It joins Stuxnet and Duqu as particularly powerful, insidious, and targeted viruses that could only have been developed by an entity as complex as a nation-state (read, the US, Russia, China, or Israel). This newest military frontier is rapidly becoming the battlefield of choice.
Spain now faces the problem of bailing out its banks on the open market. The European Central bank has refused to participate in the recapitalization so Spain has no choice but to issue new bonds, even though the interest rates on its most recent bonds have come close to 7%. We’ll see how the markets react to this sign of no confidence. It could be very ugly for the Spanish.
The Greek economic crisis, by itself, would not be a major issue for the eurozone–the fear has always been that a Greek default would spread fear that would jeopardize larger economies in the eurozone, specifically Spain and Italy. The Spanish government is not as indebted as the Greek government, but the Spanish banks are hopelessly indebted. To help out the banks, the Spanish government is lending money to the banks, but no one believes that the Spanish government has enough money to shore up the banks. Today, panic began to set in as Spanish borrowing rates neared the crisis level of 7%. It is very difficult to see how the disintegration of the eurozone can be contained–the best one can hope for is that the unraveling can be managed so that it proceeds slowly.
It seems as if Fatah and Hamas are having serious talks about a unity government for Palestinians. Fatah, in the West bank, and Hamas, in the Gaza Strip, have been at odds since 2007 and the unwillingness of both sides to compromise has seriously weakened the Palestinian cause. There have been false in the past, but it seems as if this negotiation is being more seriously pursued.
There have been two more self-immolations in protest of Chinese rule in Tibet. There have been almost two dozen self-immolations in the last 14 months, but these last two took place in the capital of Tibet, Lhasa. The capital is under very tight Chinese control, so the protesters were very determined and organized.
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