Transparency International has issued its annual report, the “Global Corruption Barometer,” and it suggests that people all over the world are losing confidence in their governments. Corruption has been a principal theme in many of the protests that we have witnessed over the last two years, and the report confirms that it is a major issue for most people. From a political point of view, corruption is perhaps the most important cause for a withdrawal of legitimacy by the people in their governments. Governance under such circumstances is increasingly difficult, and governments are more likely to resort to coercion to get citizens to comply with the laws and directives.
The relationship between fertility rates and economic activity has been difficult to define precisely. But in the recent economic downturn in Europe, the effects have been dramatic: birth rates in all 28 European countries have gone down. The relationship seems to suggest that younger couples defer having children when the economic prospects seem cloudy or difficult. Fertility rates in Europe have been declining for many years, a trend that augurs ill for the future of pensioners in Europe as there will be fewer workers contributing to the pension funds of retired people.
Drone warfare has taken a new turn. The US has landed a drone on an aircraft carrier. The capability is more significant that it initially appears. The US has made agreements with a large number of countries for base rights so that it can use drones in a variety of circumstances. By being able to use aircraft carriers, the US no longer needs to secure these base rights thereby avoiding all the discomfort of those rights such as in Pakistan. Of course, this new capability likely means that the US will rely more heavily on drones in the future.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has called its second emergency meeting ever (it was founded in 1948) to discuss the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome–coronoavirus (MERS-CoV). There have only been 79 documented cases in the world–in 9 countries, but mostly in Saudi Arabia. But of the 79 cases, 42 have proven to be fatal, which makes MERS-CoV one of the most lethal viruses ever. It does not appear to be highly contagious, but WHO is worried that with millions of pilgrims expected to visit Saudi Arabia during the holy month of Ramadan the virus may spread globally in a very short period of time. Unfortunately, it has quite a long incubation period so screening people before they leave Suadi Arabia does not promise to be highly effective.
Many people have been killed in the recent violence in Egypt, and it seems that little progress is being made in creating a government that could effectively rule. The Muslim Brotherhood has called for an “uprising” of the Egyptian people to “restore” democracy to Egypt. The call signals an intent not to cooperate with efforts to forge reconciliation. Without the cooperation of the Brotherhood, such an outcome appears impossible at this time.
A special COmmission in Pakistan has accused the Pakistani government, especially the military and the intelligence services, of gross incompetence in its handling of the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden for about 10 years. The report was leaked to Al Jazeera and can be accessed here. The report also accuses the US of the “murder” of bin Laden and for humiliating the sovereignty of Pakistan. Needless to say, the failure of Pakistan to identify bin Laden for such a long time strained US-Pakistani relations for an extended period of time.
There have been bomb blasts at the Indian Buddhist shrine of Bodhgaya in Bihar. The site is reputed to be the place where Prince Siddhartha attained Enlightenment and Buddhism began in the 6th or 5th century BCE. No group has claimed responsibility and the site was only slightly damaged. But violence against Buddhists is not typical, and could be in retaliation for the Buddhist attacks on Muslims in the northwestern parts of Burma. THe expansion of the framework for violence in the world is quite unsettling.
After thundering condemnations from Europe over US spying of the European Union in Brussels and Washington, it is slowly coming out that Britain, France, and Germany have similar spying programs. The one country about which it was thought free from such criticism was Germany,given the country’s harsh experience of government surveillance during the Nazi and East German Communist regimes. Now, however, we have information that German authorities were working closely with the NSA on electronic surveillance. Hypocrisy and disillusionment are often linked together in world politics.
Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai is making his third attempt to unseat the current president, Robert Mugabe. He most likely won the last election, but voter fraud in 2008 denied him the position. The likelihood of a fair election this time is also virtually nil, but the 89 year old Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from Britain shows no signs of wanting to step down. THe world will be watchin this election closely, so there is a slight chance that outside observers may have some effect on producing a fairer election.
Many countries in the world are pumping more water from their water aquifers than can be replenished which means that these supplies of fresh water are becoming less adequate over time. The effect of this activity will mean diminishing harvests of food, a trend that has already been observed in several countries already. It is very difficult to find “new” sources of water, so the trend is especially troubling for some heavily populated countries like China and India. But the situation is also acute in many areas of the US which enjoys the role of food supplier of last resort for the entire world. Another point is important: rising food prices are commonly associated with political protest.
The Syrian National Council–the coalition of anti-Assad rebels–has chosen a new leader, one more sympathetic to the views of Saudi Arabia. The move marks a defeat for the Qatari support for other factions within the rebel forces, a significant defeat given the huge financial support the Qataris have provided. It is not clear whether this change of leadership will make it more likely for Western powers to support the rebel forces, but it may represent a significant step forward in making the rebel forces more coherent and effective.
Since 2007, Chinese oceans near the Yellow Sea have been hit by extraordinary algae blooms (Enteromorpha prolifera). This year, off the coast near Qingdao, the blooms cover an area roughly the size of the US state, West Virginia. Nonetheless, some brave swimmers endure the foul-smelling mess and tried to enjoy the water.
Not unexpectedly, violence has broken out in Egypt between pro- and anti-Morsi forces. Unfortunately, the message to the Islamist parties in Egypt (and across the world) is that democratic change is not an option for them. It is difficult to say at this stage how this realization will unfold, but in the short run, violence seems to be most likely–a clearly sad outcome. Al Jazeera has rolling commentary on the situation in Egypt. Here is a strong opinion from the Turkish press, condemning the military coup.
There have been many critiques of globalization, but the recent factory tragedies in Bangladesh have brought home the intimate connections between what we wear, eat, drink, and use and how people live and die in many different places. We can longer afford to pretend that these connections do not exist and we need to make ure that we are comfortable with the connections that have been developed for the benefit of some and the detriment of others.
Stephen Walt has written a wonderful short essay on Edward Snowden and the NSA leaks.I often find that I am in strong agreement with Walt, and that is certainly the case on this issue.
The international reaction to the Egyptian coup is difficult to interpret, and the media is making analysis difficult. Check out this article from Al Jazeera. Then read this article from the New York Times. Note the differences in interpretation, particularly on Turkey and Qatar At least Syrian President Assad is brutally honest and direct. Of course, the only game open to him is the game of Realpolitik. Meanwhile, the military is cracking down hard on the Muslim Brotherhood. The moves are profoundly undemocratic and they will make possible reconciliation highly unlikely.
Portugal is the latest casualty in the austerity mess in Europe. The government is close to collapse as efforts to close the budget deficit seem doomed to fail. Just a few months ago, Portugal was the poster child of the austerity movement (as was Ireland a few years ago). Both countries, however, are having increasingly more difficult choices to make and their growth rates seem to be declining rapidly.
For a chilling read, check out this article on the role of US Special Operations in the world today. The world is a very different place than it was just 12 years ago.
President Morsi has been ousted by the Egyptian military. At this point it is difficult to interpret the action. Obviously, there are many in Egypt who believe that the coup actually re-establishes democracy because they believe that Morsi was becoming too authoritarian. At the same time there are many others who believe that democracy has been subverted. After all, Morsi has only been in office for a year, and ruled in very difficult circumstances. Most presidential systems in the world have fixed terms to prevent premature judgments on whether a president is “successful” (there is always a provision for impeachment in case of high crimes–but no one has accused Morsi of treason). In short, people are most likely to come to pre-determined conclusions on the issue of whether the military coup was justified.
The Obama Administration most likely does not know how to respond. Under the terms of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (USC› Title 22 › Chapter 91 › Subchapter II › § 8422), the US cannot give foreign aid to any country which experiences a military coup. It is unlikely, however, that without the $1.5 billion the US provides to Egypt every year Egypt will be able to stabilize its economy. Additionally, at this time we have no idea how the Muslim Brotherhood will respond to the coup, but it seems probable that the reaction will be highly negative, and possibly violent.
The tectonic plates of the Middle East continue to shift. The protests in Turkey and Egypt have destabilized the politics of two of the most powerful regional actors. The forceful support of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria have propelled the other powerful regional actor into a temporarily dominant position. Israel clearly benefits from the moves in Egypt and Turkey; it suffers by the new-found prominence of Iran. The great powers–the US, Russia, and China–have emerged as irrelevant to the primary dynamics of regional politics.
President Morsi has rejected the military’s ultimatum, and Egypt seems to be careening toward a dissolution of the current government. The military apparently intends to suspend the constitution and dissolve parliament and replace it with a governing council that would be more “representative.” Violence is Egypt is accelerating and there does not seem to be a stable equilibrium point at this time. Much depends on how the Muslim Brotherhood responds to the changes–it will be a real test of how close Egypt is to creating a democratic civil society.
As much as I disagree with her policies, I will easily concede that Angela Merkel is a gifted leader. She demonstrates her acumen in an interview with The Guardian in which she surveys the problems currently facing Europe Her assessment of the significance of youth unemployment on the continent (and in the rest of the world as well) is spot on. I wish more politicians were as insightful as she is.
The world is sadly watching the slow deterioration of one of the greatest leaders of the 20th and 21st centuries, Nelson Mandela. President Obama payed him a great tribute when he recently visited South Africa. I have no doubts about President Obama’s sincerity. But I have long and bitter memories of US support for the apartheid regime over many years. And our admiration for Mandela’s accomplishments should not obscure the fact that the US government treated Mandela as a “terrorist” for a long period of time. The cartoonist, Mr. Fish, captured the hypocrisy of US policy quite well:
The Egyptian military has issued an ultimatum to the government of President Morsi: “The armed forces repeats the invitation to fulfill the demands of the people and gives everyone 48 hours as a last chance to begin bearing the burdens of this historic circumstance.” It appears as if the military is trying to force Morsi to appoint different ministers to his cabinet as a way of defusing the tensions that have accumulated over the last few weeks. The ultimatum is a stinging rebuke to President Morsi and his allies in the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi himself was confronted with a number of resignations from his cabinet, and how he fills those vacant slots will determine how the military will enact the ultimatum. It will be a very tense two days.
Francis Fukuyama is an extraordinary scholar–someone who will teach you something even as you disagree strenuously with his analysis. He has written an essay for the Wall Street Journal looking at the global protest movement as one consistent with the emerging middle classes in many countries. The proposition is consistent with many studies of revolutions in the past, but it raises an interesting question: what happens when the middle classes start to decline in power (as in the US and Europe)? Does the Middle Class revolt on the way up as well as on the way down?
19 firefighters died fighting a wildfire in Arizona over the weekend. In a very real sense this tragedy was predicted back in 2004 as 2 scientists at the University of California-Santa Cruz wrote a paper that argued that a reduction in the Arctic ice pack (and 2012 was the most reduced level of ice ever recorded in human history) would lead to drought conditions in the American Southwest. If that link is as strong as the scientists predicted, then the American Southwest will likely get significantly drier in the future.
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