Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister, John Baird, announced today that Canada intends to claim the North Pole as Canadian territory. This claim places Canada in direct opposition to both Denmark and Russia which have made similar claims. Canada intends to claim sovereignty on the basis of its continental shelf which it believes extends all the way to the North Pole. The continental shelf is an accepted means of claiming territory under the Law of the Sea Convention. Canada claims that the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of its continental shelf, and as you can see from the map, the Ridge does protrude far into the north. We will see how the Russians respond to this claim.
One of the interesting conundrums of the climate change debate is the recent “pause” in the rise of global surface temperatures over the last 15 years. Those who do not believe that climate change is occurring have seized upon this pattern have used it to suggest that climate change is not taking place. There is a recent study, however, that suggests that this “pause” is not an issue, and that much of the temperature increase during that period has occurred in the oceans and not on the surface. Needless to say, the study does not settle the matter, but it does pose an interesting alternative.
Ukrainian riot police have surrounded all the protesters in Independence Square in Kiev, and it appears as if President Yanukovich is determined to settle the protests by force. It is difficult to say how the protesters will react to the suppression of the protests–much depends on whether an excessive amount of violence is used. But no matter what happens, it seems clear that the protests will continue, if not even deepen. The financial situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, as investors fear that Ukraine may not be able to meet its financial obligations.
Protests have broken out in most unlikely place on the planet: Singapore. Singapore is a “very tightly controlled city-state” that is also one of the wealthiest political entities in the world. The rioting began among foreign workers (remember the protests against Ethiopians in Saudi Arabia). The violence was precipitated by a traffic accident in which a guest worker was killed, but the rapidity of the violence suggests that there is a deep-seated resentment simmering below the surface.
A 19-year old Somali woman has been sentenced to 6 months of home confinement for reporting her rape to authorities. The journalists who wrote stories about her rape were sentenced to jail for crimes of “defamation and insulting state institutions.” The two men accused of the rape were not arrested. The non-governmental organization, Human Rights Watch, had criticized the Somali government for the similar handling of an earlier rape case.
The protest in Ukraine seems to be growing deeper and stronger every day. But the government is moving hard against the protests, dismantling the barricades and the offices of the opposition. Several news outlets lost the ability to report to the outside world today, so the information we are getting is sporadic and incomplete. But it clearly looks as if President Yanukovich is going to mimic the hardline approach to protests similar to those of President Assad in Syria. Such an approach would undoubtedly fail: European interests are too heavily entrenched in Ukraine to allow the country to fall into such disarray.
We’ve talked an awful lot about growing dissatisfaction with the state all over the world. That dissatisfaction is not confined, obviously, to the left; it is also deeply embedded in the right, in both the conservative and libertarian wings of the right. As protesters in Kiev pull down the statue of Lenin, here’s a libertarian in the European Parliament criticizing the policies of the state:
Jennifer Grout, a 23 year old from Massachusetts, did very well on the show, “Arabs Got Talent”, in Beirut, Lebanon. What is extraordinary is that she only knows a few words in Arabic (and she does not have a Boston accent at all). Her singing is quite lovely.
One of the more interesting aspects of the Iranian nuclear deal is that the sanctions against Iran appear to have been very successful. It is rare for sanctions to have such a dramatic effect since they are very often violated. It seems as if the world had the technological means to put the squeeze on Iran in ways that could not be subverted–in a real sense it was an NSA surveillance-type operation on financial transactions. Additionally, the sanctions against Iranian oil exports was accomplished without significant disruption to global petroleum markets. The key to that success was the new fracking techniques that allowed the US to increase its petroleum production by about 2 million barrels a day.
China has refused to participate in legal proceedings at a United Nations arbitration tribunal over its maritime territorial claims. China has claimed large areas of the South and East China Seas as part of its sovereign territory (the map below shows the extent of Chinese claims–it is known as the “nine-dash line”) and the Philippines filed a suit under the 1982 UN Law of the Seas Convention against the Chinese claims. Both countries have signed the convention (the US is not a signatory), but the Chinese have refused to participate in the proceedings of the tribunal which effectively moots any decision the tribunal may make. Cases of non-refusal to participate are unusual but not unprecedented. In 1986 Nicaragua sued the US in the International Court of Justice because the US had mined Nicaraguan harbors to prevent weapons from being imported by the Nicaraguan government (which was quite hostile to the US). The US refused to participate in that suit. The ICJ ruled against the US but lacked any ability to enforce its judgment.
The Nine-Dash Line
Thitinan Pongsudhirak teaches at Chulalongkorn University’s Institute of Security and International Studies in Bangkok and has written an essay which links the current turmoil in Thailand with protests that are occurring elsewhere in the world His analysis is that liberal democracy is failing and that elites in a number of countries are failing to recognize the dangers of this failure. He is undoubtedly correct that there is a widespread feeling in many countries that governance is breaking down, but I think that the breakdown is also evident in non-democratic states as well. The real question is whether political systems are capable of dealing with the demands of the people in a globalized world.
The World Trade Organization has finally delivered a global trade agreement after nearly 20 years of trying. Many analysts had argued that global agreements were being bypassed in favor of regional trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership because the difficulties in obtaining a global agreement were insurmountable. We will need to look carefully at the new agreement which promises to increase trade by nearly $1 trillion in a matter of a few years. Some analysts fear that the increased trade opportunities will increase the leverage of large corporations over developing countries by making it easier to move factories to the lowest cost countries.
The French are sending a peacekeeping mission to the Central African Republic after reports of escalating violence in the capital city of Bangui. The violence is occurring between rival groups, Muslim and Christian, over control of the potentially rich country. The violence has been going on for a very long time, but the central government has been unable to control the rival groups and the number of civilian deaths seems to be rising dramatically. The French are clearly uncomfortable in sending troops to a former colony, and this intervention follows a similar French intervention in Mali earlier this year. Unfortunately, the forces of the African Union are still unable to maintain order in many areas of the continent.
Shanghai is a beautiful city with a breathtaking skyline. It also has been relatively free of the smog that has plagued the city of Beijing since Shanghai is so close to the ocean. But, reminiscent of the early days of industrialization in London and Los Angeles, it, too, has been effective by industrial pollution. Zero Hedge has some unbelievable photographs of how bad the pollution has become in the city–it is at levels that are undeniably serious health hazards.
Japan has passed a law, the Bill on the Protection of State Secrets, that sits uneasily with its liberal constitution. In this sense, it is quite similar to the USA’s Patriot Act. but also akin to the growth of state power in other liberal societies since 9/11. But Japan’s law goes much further in restricting many freedoms. For example, Article 12 of the bill defines terrorism as “an activity that forces ‘political and other principles or opinions on the state or other people.'” People within liberal societies who cherish freedoms should begin to take note of the global erosion of legal protections for basic freedoms such as the freedom of speech.
One of the greatest leaders in world history has died. Nelson Mandela, who led his people from the dark abyss of apartheid into freedom, has died at the age of 95. Mandela not only survived the brutal system of systemic discrimination. He also triumphed over the hate and anger that such a system breeds by retaining his grace, dignity, and humanity. He was an inspiration to generations of people and his passing is a special loss to us all. He will, however, endure forever in the hearts of all those who look forward to the day when race hatred is finally vanquished.
Frontline has a video of Mandela’s life. Take the time to learn about this extraordinary person.
The Pew Foundation has a research center that is one of the most reputable polling agencies in the world It has just released a study of American attitudes toward US engagement with the rest of the world. The evidence suggests that most Americans believe that American global power is declining and a large number of Americans believe that the country should “mind its own business” internationally. The findings are not surprising, but the rate of decline for US engagement abroad is quite sharp.
The World Trade Organization is soon to meet in Indonesia to try to resuscitate trade negotiations that have been stalled for many years. There is, however, a new issue is emerging that has been more or less a “stealth” issue for a few years: whether fresh water can be considered a private commodity that can be traded like any other commodity, like petroleum. Traditionally, fresh water has been considered a public good to be distributed along lines that serve the public interest. But the fear of increasing scarcity of fresh water, much of which is associated with the fears of climate change, has led many to think that selling fresh water may be necessary to conserve the resource. Unfortunately, that line of thinking also leads to the possibility that water may only be available to people with access to money.
The National Resource Council has issued a report on “tipping points” in the climate change debate. The climate change debate has usually taken place in the context of long-term gradual change (usually in terms of “by the end of the century”). The NRC, however, has raised an alarm about how abrupt climate change can take place, sometimes in a matter of years. These abrupt changes are not events that are global, but are seemingly local (like the melting of the North Pole ice cover). These “local” events can occur quite quickly and have definite systemic effects.
The protests in Ukraine have continued, but there is a sense that President Yanukovich will likely not change course or resign. Ukraine is highly dependent on supplies of Russian natural gas, and, with winter coming, the Russians have a very strong bargaining chip on whoever runs the Ukrainian government. Maintaining a sustained protest in the face of such significant leverage will be very difficult. President Yanukovich seems to be very confident of his position since he left for a three day diplomatic trip to China.
One of the legacies of the nation-state system is that everyone needs to be a citizen of “someplace.” Even displaced people and refugees have a citizenship based upon their place of birth (even if they do not have a home). There are some exceptions to this rule (occupied territories have a somewhat ambiguous status), but it is a useful fact of life for most people. There are, however, some problems with citizenship–the most obvious one is the fact that citizens are expected to pay taxes. However, if one is rich enough, there is a looming possibility to avoid paying any taxes at all: the “Freedom Ship.” If you can buy your way onto the Freedom Ship, you can perpetually avoid taxes: just choose a state that will grant you citizenship that does not impose taxes on you if you do not reside in the country (the US will try to track you down no matter where you are, but the US is an exception to the rule. If you are an American citizen, you will have to also renounce your citizenship to avoid paying taxes). Apparently, Benjamin Franklin was only half right: you still can’t avoid death, but you can avoid taxes.
The protests in Ukraine have rattled financial markets as holders of Ukrainian bonds fear that the instability of the government has made their investments much riskier. As many as 350,000 people protested in the main city of Kiev demanding a general strike and the overthrow of the government of President Yanukovich. Much of the anti-government sentiment is due to the perception that Yanukovich has moved much too close to Russia and Valdimir Putin. Putin was in Armenia and said that the protests have little to do with anti-Russian or Pro-EU sentiments, but rather are the product of intra-Ukrainian politics.
The United Nations Commissioner on Human Rights, Navi Pillay, has accused Syrian President Assad of authorizing war crimes. This is the first time that the UN has accused Assad directly of criminal behavior. The death toll in the more than two years of fighting in Syria has reached 125,000, about a third of whom are civilians. Pillay referred to both war crimes and crimes against humanity which are two of the three conditions supposed to invoke the “Responsibility to Protect.” Unfortunately, there was no movement in the UN Security Council to protect the people of Syria.
Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, is engaged in an intense diplomatic foray to the Persian Gulf Arab states, trying to mollify their fears of the nuclear agreement Iran signed with the P5+1. The effort is a rather dramatic turnaround from the diplomacy of the last 30 years in which relations between the Sunni Arab states and the Shia Persian state of Iran have been negligible. It is hard to believe that an Iranian-Saudi rapprochement is possible, but a nuclear agreement between Iran and the US was also hard to imagine.
The bloody crackdown by the government has led the opposition in Ukraine to demand Western sanctions against the government of President Viktor Yanukovych. The protests followed Yanukovych’s decision to seal a trade agreement with Russia instead of opting for closer relations with the European Union. The protests follow a familiar pattern in Ukrainian politics, beginning with protests in 1990 against the Soviet Union and another set of protests in 2004 after the election of Yanukovych. The division in the country between the eastern (which looks to Russia) and western parts (which looks to the EU) of the country is deep and longstanding.
Croatia’s citizens voted to ban gay marriage in a referendum. The vote will actually amend the constitution to enforce the ban and it was passed by a 65% vote in favor of the ban. Croatia is the European Union’s newest member, and it will be interesting to see how the other countries in the Union react to this vote. The Union struggled with Croatia to force the country to allow extradition of its citizens who had committed war crimes prior to Croatia’s entry to the Union.
Today is World AIDS Day. About 1.7 million people die every year from this disease, even though the world has made significant progress in developing effective treatments. It has proven to be very difficult to alter risky behaviors and even more difficult to figure out how to get the treatments to the most affected populations. One of the great success stories in the world is Rwanda which has made incredible progress is addressing the disease. We should take hope from the fact that a very poor country has proven that the will to conquer the disease can be decisive.
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