The Hong Kong protests seem to have died down, but the Beijing government has broken off negotiations with the protesters after the leaders of the protests refused to encourage the protesters to leave the streets. Perhaps the street protests will return, but the next steps are unclear. One thing is certain: the discontent will not simply disappear. The issues are not merely political–they are also economic. The disparities between rich and poor in Hong Kong are one of the underlying causes of the dissatisfaction.
For those of you who follow economic news, you know that the price of oil has gone down dramatically. Part of the decline is due to reduced demand in world markets because economic growth has declined globally. But the oil producers, specifically Saudi Arabia, has continued to pump oil even though demand has gone down. This strategy appears to be a deliberate strategy to harm two other oil producers–Iran and Russia–who demand upon a very high price for oil Michael Klare, a Professor at Hampshire College, argues that this strategy is designed to persuade Iran to drop its nuclear program and Russia to stop its support for President Assad of Syria. The theory is certainly plausible, and we will have to see if it works.
Malala Yousafzai and Kailash Satyarthi have won the Nobel Peace Prize for 2014. Yousafzai is a Pakistani teenager who has worked hard promoting education for women and girls despite being shot by extremists who wished to silence her advocacy. Stayarthi is an Indian who has tirelessly worked to stop child trafficking and labor. The award is, as is always the case, a political statement against those who do not believe in the equal rights of women and children. But it goes further by offering the award to an Indian and a Pakistani together.
One of the curious elements of the US’s move to create a coalition against the Islamic State is the unwillingness of some of its allies to move forcefully against the group. No where is this more apparent than in the case of Turkey. Turkey has a great deal to fear from the establishment of a Caliphate in Syria and Iraq. As a Muslim country that also claims to have a secular authority, Turkey should be very concerned about how the Islamic State might affect Turkish politics. Yet the Turkish fear of arming the Kurds, is holding the country back from its clear national interest. It appears as if Turkey is waiting for the IS to destroy much of the Kurdish population before it is willing to take a stand. Needless to say, the Turkish Kurds do not take this position kindly.
The Occupy Central movement in Hong Kong is at a critical turning point. Support for the protests is waning, yet it is far from clear that the objectives of the group will be satisfied. A change in tactics is clearly necessary, but it is difficult to see how the movement should change in order to keep its objectives visible to the larger Chinese population.
India and Pakistan are exchanging fire in the disputed area of Kashmir, and the violence seems to be greater than it has been for nearly a decade. There is always instability along the Line of Control in Kashmir, but recently both sides seem to be adopting a more confrontational stance. Civilians are fleeing the region in an attempt to obtain safety, but there does not seem to be a desire on the part of either side to resolve this crisis quickly.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued its economic outlook for 2015 and its predictions for global economic growth next year have been lowered from 4% to 3.8%. The drop does not sound like much, but it is rather serious given the slow growth of recent years. Indeed, the Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, calls the projection a warning of the “New Mediocre.” The IMF believes that growth in Europe, Brazil, Russia, and China will slow considerably next year, offset slightly by higher growth in the US.
The protests in Hong Kong appear to be winding down. Discussions between the government and the protesters are ongoing, but very little is known about whether any progress is being made. The protesters seem to have accepted the fact that their point has been made, but also realize that continuing the protests would lead to a loss of support within the larger Hong Kong population as the disruptions begin to take a toll socially and economically. The open question is what will happen if the negotiations prove to be unproductive.
Kim Jong-eun has still not emerged from his long absence from the public eye. He has not been seen since 3 September and rumors are beginning to swirl. The rumors have been stimulated by the visit of North Korea’s Nos. 2 and 3 military leaders to South Korea–a visit with only one day’s notice. In addition, the nation’s capital Pyongyang has been on lock-down since 27 September, with entries and exits tightly restricted. Finally, he missed the Supreme People’s Assembly, one of the most important political events on the North Korean calendar. Kim Jong-eun might be the victim of a coup.
The protests in Hong Kong are entering a critical phase, and it appears as if an agreement may be in reach, at least with the more moderate protesters. The protests are clearly identified as political since the main issue seems to be how candidates for office are selected. But there is also an economic undertone to the protests which has not been openly articulated: the growing economic gap between the rich and poor in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is no different from the rest of China or the rest of the world. The growing economic disparity seems to be a structural feature of the process of globalization.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff won a plurality of votes in Sunday’s election, but failed to achieve a majority vote. She will therefore face the center-right candidate, Aecio Neves in a run-off election on 26 October. Surprisingly, the environmentally-focused candidate, Marina Silva, did not do well in the election, despite having a very strong beginning to her campaign. Neves is a former governor of Brazil’s second most populous state, Minas Gerais, and comes from a politically active family in Brazilian history. The run-off election will be a classic confrontation between center-right and center-left.
Great Britain estimates that about 50-60 women have left Britain to join the Islamic State in Syria. We know very little about the motivations of those who have emigrated from the West to join the group, and even less about the specific motivations of women in making the move. It’s not clear that women have motives that are different from men, but that possibility certainly exists. As the dispute between the West and the IS unfolds, it will be highly instructive to discern the objectives of those who emigrate. It does seem to be the case that those who emigrate are disillusioned with life within a liberal society.
For those in the class who wish to follow the protests in Hong Kong, the Occupy Central Secretariat (author is unknown) is maintaining an English blog and a Twitter feed. I won’t be asking any questions about these sites, but though that many of you might be interested in getting first-hand information even though the reports may not be entirely accurate.
Mexican authorities have recovered the remains of at least 34 bodies believed to be those of students who went to the city of Iguala to protest in support of striking teachers. The remains were found in mass graces, and the students are believed to have been executed by rogue police associated with drug cartel thugs. Gang-related violence has been a serious problem in Mexico and although Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto has made some progress in addressing the scourge, obviously much more needs to be done.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu gave and interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria and in it, he responded to those who support a Palestinian state. His comments suggested that a future Palestinian state would need to be very different from the traditional nation-state. Specifically, Netanyahu argued that full sovereignty could never be held by a Palestinian state because of the threat a fully sovereign state would pose to Israeli security. The comments were intriguing because Netanyahu did not reject outright a possible Palestinian state.
Troops from the African Union and Somalia have taken control of the city of Barawe, a port city Al Shabab has held since 2006. If those forces can retain control of the city, the move will deprive the Al Shabab militants of access to the sea and relieve pressure on the capital city of Mogadishu. The militant group is still in control of a great deal of Somalian territory, but it appears as if opposition to the Islamic group is becoming better organized and more durable.
The 24/7 TV news cycle is infatuated with either beheadings or Ebola. The American response to these horrific situations is unsettling. There were warning signs to both, and if the US had paid attention earlier to the circumstances which spawned these terrible events, we would be far less concerned. The Ebola crisis has been going on for months (my first post on the outbreak in West Africa was on 29 March 2014). If the US had sent aid at that time, the situation would have been far less dire. The mortality rate for untreated Ebola is about 90%; the mortality rate for Ebola victims who are given just care and antibiotics is 50% (seemingly the same rate for the 4 people who have received the new vaccine, ZMapp). Why US policy does not kick in until American citizens are directly threatened is beyond my understanding. And why American citizens get so freaked out by highly improbable scenarios defies logic.
About 35,000 walruses are crowded onto a small beach in Alaska as the animals have been forced to forage and rest on land as their typical environment of sea ice has receded. Scientists believe that global warming is responsible for the change in the habitat, a change that has also forced changes in the behavior of polar bears. The Arctic has experienced the most significant temperature changes on the planet, and it is a particularly fragile environment.
Reports of brutality have emerged from the Syrian city of Kobani, as Islamic State fighters have tightened their siege of the city. The siege has been going on for about 20 days, and American air strikes have only been of limited value as the Kurdish forces protecting the city are short of ammunition and guns. Turkey has authorized the use of its military to protect Turkish interests in Syria, but Turkey has thus far been unwilling to aid the Kurds holding off the attack on the city. If the city falls, about 200,000 civilians will be at risk.
Hong Kong’s Chief Executive, Leung Chun-ying, refused to step down from his post in a signal that the Chinese Central government is not willing to make concessions to the protesters. The hardline has divided the protesters, as some wish to compromise while others seem to have dug in their heels. The number of protesters is likely to dwindle as a consequence, but those who remain will probably refuse to make any compromises at all. The likely outcome is that the central government will take stronger action against the smaller numbers, and we should hope that violence can be avoided in the confrontation.
The new center-left government of Sweden has announced that it is going to recognize Palestine as a state. It will be the first “west” European state to do so–the other European states that recognize Palestine (Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary) did so while aligned with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The move represents a significant break from previous European policies which was to follow generally the lead of the United States in not recognizing Palestine. Given Sweden’s reputation within Europe, the move will inspire a broader conversation within the European Union as a whole.
The Islamic State has just beheaded another hostage and is also fiercely attacking the Syrian city of Kobani which is right along the Turkish border. The two actions clearly suggest that the IS is deliberately goading both Turkey and the West into getting involved in a ground war in Syria and Iraq. The strategy is a high-risk one, but the IS obviously believes that it could trap the West in a quagmire that would definitely boost its standing among those who might be leaning toward supporting the Caliphate. It remains to be seen whether Turkey and the West have the political ability to avoid walking into the trap.
The People’s Daily, the official media organ of the Chinese Communist Party has published an editorial that states its position on the protests in Hong Kong. As far as I can tell, this is the first official pronouncement that addresses the protests in terms that suggest their significance. The editorial states clearly the position of the Beijing government:
“The central government must firmly support the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in taking resolute action against radical activities, including drawing the red line of Hong Kong’s rule of law. It must be made clear that there is no uncertainty over political reform in Hong Kong.”
At this point, it seems as if the central government is going to wait out the protesters, hoping that the people of Hong Kong will ultimately turn on the protesters as their activities disrupt the daily lives of many. The newspaper has also published the Beijing government’s official position on the issue of elections in Hong Kong. (I will not ask any questions on the official document on the quiz).
The Economist has published a fascinating essay on the changing relationship between work and wealth. Essentially, the essay argues that the digital revolution has created opportunities to create great wealth but with little demand for labor. The troubling aspect of this transformation is that with fewer workers, there is the danger that a highly productive economy can develop without creating a robust consumer class to purchase the goods produced. The key to market capitalism is the key relationship between workers and consumers. Without sufficient consumers, mass markets likely cannot exist.
The Pew Research Center has a News IQ test which yielded very depressing results. It is a short, 12-question quiz that was given to 1,002 randomly selected adults. Apparently, the US population is about as well-informed as a demented gopher. Test your own knowledge base.
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