Tensions are rising in the city of Jerusalem as Israeli authorities blocked all access to what Jews call the Temple Mount and what Muslims call the Noble Sanctuary.   The move came after an attempted assassination attempt against a noted Jewish activist, Yehuda Glick, who has long argued for unfettered Jewish access to the site.   The move also comes after a string of violent actions in Jerusalem between Israelis and Palestinians.  The Islamic Jihad issued a statement saying that Glick “got what he deserved.”  Right-wing politicians in the Israeli Knesset called for a march to the site to demand unfettered access by Jews to the site.  The situation is becoming increasingly volatile.

Meanwhile, relations between the US and Israel have reached a low point as an unnamed Administration official labeled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “chickenshit” minister.  Comments such as these usually have some sort of official approval–anyone in the White House talking with Jeffrey Goldberg about Israel knows that the comments will be published.  One would imagine that this is a way to put pressure on Israel as the deadline for the negotiations with Iran come closer to the 24 November deadline:  signs of a rift with Israel’s most important ally would unnerve everyone in Israel except for Netanyahu’s closest supporters.

The United Nations has issued a report that suggests that more than 15,000 people have gone to Syria and Iraq to join the Islamic State.  People from more than 80 countries have joined the movement, but the breadth and depth of the migration is difficult to assess.  We really do not have any idea of how many of the migrants have gone out of a commitment to the stated objectives of the IS.  The real question is how many of the 15,000 will contribute substantially to the military power of the IS.

A fascinating story from the Financial Times:

Heba Saleh in Cairo, “Western female jihadis deploy the ‘soft-power’ of Isis online,” Financial Times, 28 October 2014

They cheer on beheadings, defend rape and the enslavement of women, and yearn to revive oppressive centuries-old traditions that
many of their female co-religionists in Muslim countries are struggling to shake off.

Hundreds of young Muslim women from the west who travelled to Syria to marry fighters of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant,
known as Isis, are part of what experts call, the “soft-power” of the militants. Isis has used social media to attract new recruits and
build an image of the group as a reincarnation of the just and righteous state to which many Muslims aspire.

Umm Mu’awiyah, who tweets in English and appears to be British, is a recent arrival in Raqqa, the
Syrian capital of the Islamic state proclaimed by Isis. Despite the US-led strikes against the group, she tweeted on October 8 that she
has finally “made it to Dar al-Islam”, or the land of Islam, and exhorted others to “rush” over while there was still a “window of
opportunity”.

“It feels like I never left the west,” she wrote soon after her arrival. “I’m surrounded by so many Brits and Europeans, it is
unbelievable.”

An air raid a few days later left her undaunted: “Witnessed my first strike last night as the disbelievers attacked Raqqa. Alhamdulillah
[thank God] zero casualties & more money wasted by the Kafir [infidels].”

The women and their universe of online followers and young admirers back home are part of what Sasha Havlicek, director of the
London-based Institute for Strategic Dialogue, describes as a “jihadi girl power subculture”, facilitated by the internet.

For Isis, she argues, the recruitment of these women is “very good troop morale-strategy because in the battle of ideas it is good to say
western women, with all their freedoms, chose this”.

Mostly young, aged 15-22, jihadi women use social media, such as Twitter, Tumblr and Kik, the messaging service, to exchange with
followers advice on how to get to Syria, to celebrate Isis advances and to relay observations on their new lives.

They may be yearning for the lifestyles of early Muslims, but their language is that of modern tech-savvy teenagers, with slang and
emoticons interspersed with Arabic religious terms spelt out in English letters. Ms Havlicek describes it as “a kind of jihadi subculture
cool”, with the Arabic words inserted to provide a sense of authenticity and being “part of the gang”.

Muhajirah Amatullah describes herself on Twitter as “just a random Muhajirah [emigree to the Islamic state] /wife/mother who has
access to the internet. I pose no threat to your National Security: D Chillax!”

In another tweet she projects an image of a contented homemaker. “Mashallah! [by God’s will]. Beautiful blue sky Raqqa today. What
to do? Do the washing of course! Spoken like a true domestic pro!”

But juxtaposed with the domesticity and observations about the oranges and bananas in Raqqa’s markets there is praise of the bravery
of Isis soldiers who are real “men”, unlike enemy troops.

“Thy [sic] sleep w/eyes open+chop heads off”, she writes.

In an apparent response to critics opposed to the enslavement of prisoners of war taken by Isis, she posts
excerpts from what appears to be a religious study permitting slavery: “Repost: Islamic rulings re POW
(inc Slaves Men/Women/Children). B4 condemn/reject/oppose – lets learn!”

Umm Hussain al-Britani, identified in the British press as a 45-year-old Muslim convert Sally Jones,
one-time singer in a band, opines on her Twitter feed on October 13 that “taking female Kafirs
[unbelievers] as slaves is ibadah”, or an act of worship.

Experts say an estimated 60 British women have joined Isis, though all numbers are uncertain. Women
are also known to have travelled from Sweden, France, Belgium, Canada and the US. Reports say British
women have joined the all-female al-Khansaa brigade charged with enforcing Islamic rulings on women
in Raqqa.

Online, too, jihadi women appear to be trying to enforce moral rules. A Twitter account that goes by the
handle @irhabbyukhts, meaning Terrorist Sisters – an apparent attempt at irony – is dedicated to
naming and shaming jihadi men who flirt online with girls.

It warns: “Ya Akhawat [sisters] 140 letters cannot define the Deen [religiosity] and Akhlaq [morals] of anyone on Twitter. Don’t get
fooled, Shaytan [ the devil] spares no one! “

The Islamic State is trying to overturn the territorial boundaries established by the British and the French by the Sykes-Picot Treaty of 1916.  The treaty was a secret one, drawn up in anticipation of the breakup of the Ottoman Empire during World War I.  The boundaries were formally revised the Treaty of San Remo in 1920, but the main thrust of the 1916 treaty was observed.  Needless to say, the boundary lines completely disregarded the actual demographic realities of the people who lived in the areas.

Amnesty International has released a report accusing the Ethiopian government of violating the human rights of its largest ethnic group, the Oromo.   Ethiopia has about 80 ethnic groups and the Oromo are one of the largest of these.   The government has accused the Oromo of subversive activities and denies that it is persecuting the Oromo.  Ethiopia has been plagued by political violence in recent years, but the country as a whole has shown remarkable economic growth and stability.

The UN General Assembly has passed, for the 23rd time, a resolution urging the US to lift its decades-long embargo on Cuba.  The resolution passed with 188 votes  in the 193-member assembly.  The US imposed the embargo during the Eisenhower Administration in 1961 to persuade Cuba to change its socialist government, and has accomplished absolutely nothing.  The embargo wins the prize for the single most futile diplomatic effort in human history.

One of the most interesting dynamics of the conflict in Syria and Iraq is the confluence of interests between the US and Iran.  Neither side has openly admitted this mutuality of interests, but both sides are acting in ways that reinforce the other.  It remains to be seen whether the threat posed by the Islamic State forces the two sides to work together in a more coordinated and open manner.

The Nidaa Tounes party in Tunisia has won a plurality of seats in the recent Parliamentary elections.  The vote is significant since the first rumbles of the Arab Spring in January 2011 began in Tunisia, and there has been a strong push by the Islamist party, Ennahda.  The victory by Nidaa Tounes, a secular party, suggests that the turmoil in the Arab world does not lead inevitably to an Islamist outcome.   The election was peaceful and held without any incidents.

The last British and American troops in Afghanistan left the country today.  They left Helmand Province, the site of the worst fighting between NATO and Taliban forces.  Some NATO forces will remain in Afghanistan but only in a training capacity.  In addition, NATO will leave substantial military equipment in Afghanistan, although one hopes that the equipment in Afghanistan will be more closely guarded that the military equipment left in Iraq, much of which has been stolen by the Islamic State.

Both the European Banking Authority and the European Central Bank have conducted what are known as “stress” tests on over a hundred banks in Europe.  A stress test involves creating a theoretical scenario of a financial crisis and checking whether the banks have sufficient capital to pay their creditors and depositors on schedule even in the throes of a financial panic.  The scenarios are speculative, but the authorities attempt to make them plausible.   Unfortunately, many of the European banks failed these stress tests and are therefore now required to raise additional capital.  The problem is that raising capital means that money is diverted from profitable investment and just stored in case of an emergency.  Which means that private capital is not available to stimulate economic growth.  And the banks seem to be getting weaker over time.

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has been narrowly re-elected in a hotly contested election.  The election cycle has been up and down for President Rousseff, but Brazilian voters seem to have rejected the pro-business policies of her opponent Aecio Neves.

Two pro-western parties have received very strong showings in the Ukrainian Parliamentary elections held today.  The two parties, however, failed to achieve a clear majority in the Parliament, so Ukraine will be governed by a coalition of parties next year.  Unfortunately, the elections were seriously flawed because millions of voters in the eastern parts of the country, currently under the control of Russian speaking separatists, were not able to vote.  The inability to collect those votes will seriously compromise the legitimacy of the new government.

Paul Krugman is a noted Keynesian economist–he favors government intervention in the market in order to stimulate demand.  Classical liberals oppose such policies because they believe that markets, if left alone, will produce more efficient and productive outcomes, and that government intervention produces political and not economic outcomes.  Krugman has written an op-ed piece in which he compares the protests in Hong Kong to politics in the United States.  His conclusions are that without government interventions, one can only expect greater income inequality in both economies.

Iran has set a deadline of 24 November for closing a deal with the P5+1 (the 5 Permanent members of the UN Security Council–the US, Great Britain, France, Russia, and China–plus Germany).  Typically, negotiations get much tenser as deadlines approach, but it seems clear that both sides want to come to an agreement.  There are reasons to believe that the negotiations will ultimately be successful, contrary to popular opinion when the negotiations started.  What is not clear is how the both the US Congress and Israel will react to the deal.  President  Obama will likely try to craft an agreement that does not need Congressional approval.

Italian Prime Minster Matteo Renzi has introduced new labor law reforms that are strongly opposed by Italian labor unions.   The unions organized protests across Italy and the one in Rome brought together almost a million people.  The unions are opposed to continued austerity measures designed to bring down the Italian budget deficit.  The protests mirror other protests against austerity across Europe.  It remains to be seen whether Germany will ease up on its demands that European Union nations adhere to the rule that budget deficits cannot be more than 3%.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech which denied that Russia was trying to build a new empire and accusing the United States of violating the world order.  He specifically mentioned the role of the US in funding rebels in Syria and argued that the US was responsible for the growth of the Islamic State.  The speech will certainly resonate with those in the world who believe that the US is using its power to destabilize regimes it does not favor.

The Swedes have called off the search for what was believed to be a foreign submarine in its territorial waters.  The search was focused on the archipelago near Stockholm which is an incredibly difficult area to reconnoiter.  Analysts continue to believe that the submarine was Russian, but there is absolutely no credible evidence to back up that suspicion.  The Swedes, however, as well as others in northeastern Europe, believe that the Russians are applying military pressure to the northern tier of NATO.

The European Council has agreed to try to cut greenhouse gas emissions from the EU by 40% from 1990 levels by 2030. The countries in Europe which rely upon coal for their energy supplies had resisted the proposal, but pressure was on the EU to come up with an agreement prior to the 2015 Climate Conference which is to be held in Paris.  The hope is that the European action will place pressure on other countries to come to a globally binding agreement in 2015.

Economic data suggest that the Great Recession of 2008-09 had a long-term effect on the distribution of wealth in the US.  The top 1% of the US population have recovered almost completely from the negative effects of the recession, but the bottom 99% have yet to recover from the downturn.  It appears as if the losses from the recession will end up being permanent for the bottom 99%, and there is no reason to expect that a recovery will erase those gains.  The permanence of those losses suggest that market forces alone will be able to compensate for the bottom 99%–some sort out outside intervention is necessary for recovery.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights released a report on the result of a month-long period of bombing in Syria by the US and its allies in the fight against the Islamic State.  The report claims that 521 Islamist fighters and 32 civilians have been killed in the strikes.  That works out to about a 6% death rate for non-combatants.  There is no quantitative measure of what constitutes a war crime in terms of civilian casualties in an active combat zone.  Any deliberate civilian death is automatically a  war crime, but, assuming that these civilians were accidentally killed in the course of a legitimate military air strike, some civilian deaths are not automatically criminal.  But at some point the number of even unintended civilians killed becomes a serious matter.

The patterns of global economic growth are not particularly robust right now, but, as always, there are some exceptions to the general trend.  Today, some of the fastest growing markets are ones that often go ignored.  But at this time, economic growth is quite strong in the Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.  These countries have been able to avoid the global slowdown by essentially focusing on domestic demand and the building up of domestic infrastructure.  I thank Wintana Balema for bringing this article to my attention.

The chief exectuive of Hong Kong, Leung Chun-ying, is currently negotiating with the protesters about possible compromises on the question of how candidates from Hong Kong can be nominated for elections.  He had an opportunity to be interviewed by the international press, and he is quoted by the Financial Times (the FT has a paywall so if you wish to see the full article, you should use a College computer) as saying:

“If it’s entirely a numbers game – numeric representation – then obviously you’d be talking to half the people in Hong Kong [that] earn less than US$1,800 a month,” he said in reference to the median per capita wage. “You would end up with that kind of politics and policies.”

The statement suggests that Mr. Leung fears the power of the poorer sectors of the Hong Kong population. The South China Morning Post articulates the fear in this way:

Semi-autonomous Hong Kong has one of the biggest income divides in the world, with growing discontent at increased inequality and exorbitant property prices fuelling the protests which turned increasingly violent at the end of last week.

The statement is likely to harden the position of many, but not all, of the protesters.

Swedish and NATO fighter planes were scrambled to intercept a Russian airplane that entered the national airspace of NATO-member Estonia.  The provocative behavior comes as the Swedes continue to hunt for the mysterious submarine that is in Swedish territorial waters.   The pattern of incursions over recent years is cataloged by Newsweek:

“In 2010, only one Russian military vessel was spotted close to Latvian waters. This year, the figure has already exceeded 40, Latvia’s ministry of defence says. During the same period, the number of Russian military approaches to Latvian airspace resulting in scrambles by Nato’s Baltic air policing mission has skyrocketed from around five to more than 180. Neighbouring Lithuania has already seen 132 scrambles this year, up from four in 2010. Estonia, meanwhile, is seeing not just unwelcome approaches to its airspace and waters but also the abduction of one of its intelligence officers to Russia.

“Then there is the smaller number of violations of neighbours’ airspace and waters.  In 2010, there were no Russian violations of Finnish airspace. This year, the Finnish ministry of defence figures show, there have already been five.”

It is difficult not to conclude that the Russians are deliberately trying to probe the defensive capabilities and will of NATO.

The US and Canada put their military forces on high alert after a gunman shot and killed a Canadian soldier at the Canadian War Memorial.  There is little solid information about the event, but it follows a serious event near Montreal yesterday when a person ran over two Canadian soldiers, killing one of them.    Authorities in Canada identified the driver of the car as Martin Couture-Rouleau, a person who was considered by Canadian authorities as a sympathizer of the Islamic State.  Needless to say, speculation is running rife, but we have no hard evidence of any coordination between the two attacks.

Human Rights Watch, a highly regarded non-governmental organization, has accused the Ukrainian government of using cluster bombs against Russian-speaking separatists in eastern Ukraine.  Cluster bombs are regarded by many as weapons that violate the laws of war since they release thousands of tiny bomblets that cannot discriminate between combatants and non-combatants.   There is a 2010 Convention governing the use of cluster bombs but many countries–including Ukraine, China, Russia, the United States, Israel, Syria, India, Pakistan and Brazil–have not signed the convention banning the use of cluster bombs.  Kiev denies using cluster bombs.

The Pew Research Center has released its poll of the most distrusted news sources in the US.  I reproduce the chart below simply for information purposes (no quiz questions on this subject).  Interesting tidbit:  more people mistrust The New York Times than Al Jazeera.

Source: American Trends Panel (wave 1). Survey conducted March 19-April 29, 2014. Based on all Web respondents (representative of the 89% of Americans with internet access). (Overall N=2,901; see About the Study for sample sizes of each ideological group.) Respondents were asked which (of 36 sources for news about government and politics) they have heard of, trust, distrust and got news from in the past week. Ideological consistency based on a scale of 10 political values questions. To see audience profiles, click each source. *Note that ThinkProgress, Daily Kos, Mother Jones and The Ed Schultz Show do not have audience profiles because the sample sizes for these audiences are too small to analyze.

For those of you who have a strong biology background, you might be interested in this article, which summarizes the findings of a disease modelling firm which did a model of the potential spread of the Ebola virus.  I do not fully understand the article (so don’t panic–I would never ask a question on the quiz about something this technical).  But I often rely on the expertise of others who can explain specialized material to me.   I have a simple question: should I freak out now?