Peace negotiations on Syria are scheduled to begin on Monday in Geneva, but the skirmishing among the various parties suggests that no one is taking the negotiations seriously. The US and Turkey are bogged down over which representatives of the Kurds are acceptable negotiators. The Saudi-backed Syrian rebels insist that Russian air strikes must first cease before they will participate in the negotiations. And no one knows what seat at the table the Iranians should have. It is hard to find any party to the negotiations who is genuinely interested in a cease-fire to save the Syrian people.
Masoud Barzani, a prominent Kurdish leader, has called for a redrawing of the international boundaries in the Middle East that are the unfortunate legacies of European imperialism. The current boundaries were draw up in a secret agreement between Britain and France–the Sykes-Picot Agreement–in 1916 without the knowledge or consent of any of the peoples directly affected. Those boundaries exacerbate ethnic and religious tensions in the region
Japan accepted 27 refugees in 2015. Japan has a stellar humanitarian aid network and is active in many international organizations. But it is reluctant to allow outsiders into its society. Japan is profoundly homogeneous, a strange base upon which to base an economy which is almost completely reliant upon open access to all markets. Japanese demographics, however, may force a change in attitudes: Japan does not have enough young people to support a rapidly ageing population.
US military leaders are urging steps to halt the spread of Daesh (the Islamic State) from Syria and Iraq into Libya. The belief is that allied military action against Daesh has been effective in limiting its access to funds, and that the pervasive instability in Libya plus abundant oil would be a better and more defensible base for its operations. Working from Libya would also make Daesh operations in Europe easier to coordinate. Libya has been a lawless state since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, who was overthrown in 2011.
The flood of refugees into Europe has led to discussions among European leaders over the suspension of the Schengen Plan, the arrangement that allows passport-free travel between most of the EU countries. The proposal is for a two-year suspension, but such a move would signal a sharp retreat for the aspirations of the unification movement. The incredible difficulties of managing the influx of refugees also pose great risks for the movement.
Turkey has been stepping up its military actions against Kurds in the southeastern part of the state. The Turks fear the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), believing that it wishes to create an independent Kurdish state. The Kurds have been the most reliable ground allies in the fight against Daesh (the Islamic State) in Syria and Iraq and the US wants to arm the Kurds to the fullest extent possible. But the TUrks and the US cannot agree on the proper role of the Kurds in the tangled politics of the Middle East.
The plight of Syrian refugees is extraordinary, but so is the will to survive. Young refugees in Lebanon (which hosts more Syrian refugees per capita than any other country) have managed to find a degree of stability and hope in rap music. After all the trauma in their lives, it is astonishing that these kids still know what will keep them strong and moving forward.
Israel has confirmed that it intends to seize about 280 acres of land in the Jordan River Valley near the city of Jericho. The land exists in what the international community calls the Occupied West Bank, seized by Israel in the 1967 war with Jordan (along with the Gaza Strip from Egypt and the Golan Heights from Syria). Israel apparently wishes to use the land for settlements for Israeli citizens, a move expressly forbidden by the international law governing occupied territories. The Fourth Geneva Convention holds that:
Article 49 (6)
The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.
Israel holds that the Fourth Geneva Convention does not apply to the Occupied Territories, a position which has been rejected by the International Court of Justice.
Researchers have found evidence of a violent clash between two groups of hunter-gatherers near Lake Turkana in modern-day Kenya. Realists would seize upon this evidence to prove their proposition that violence is an inherent part of human nature, But the evidence uncovered tells us nothing about the reasons why the fighting occurred so it is hard to accept such straightforward conclusions.
Armed militants attacked Bacha Khan University in the city of Charsadda in the northwest part of Pakistan. The Pakistan Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack which killed at least 20 people and perhaps as many as 40. The militants have a considerable presence in the northwestern parts of the country, and seek refuge in Afghanistan for protection against the Pakistani government. Efforts to control the militants increased after a massacre of over 130 students over a year ago, but it is clear that those efforts have not been successful as of yet.
As expected, 2015 was the warmest year ever recorded in human history, and the evidence suggests that 2016 might be even warmer. As the map indicates, the northern parts of the planet–with the significant exception of the area around Greenland–were significantly warmer than the historical record. The cooler area around Greenland may be associated with ice melting because of the higher temperatures.
The UN has issued a report on violent deaths in Iraq over a 20-month period. The number of civilians killed is very high: almost 19,000 from January 2014 to October 2015. In addition, the UN estimates that as many as 3,500 women and girls are being held as slaves by Daesh (the Islamic State). The UN accuses Daesh for most of those deaths, but the instability in Iraq can be explained more prosaically as an attempt by the minority Sunni population in Iraq to regain its position of predominance in the country when Saddam Hussein was in charge.
Taiwan’s opposition party, the Democratic Progress Party, won a stunning victory in the recent Presidential election. The President-elect, Tsai Ing-wen, is the first woman to lead the island country, and she has, in the past, advocated for independence from China. Most of the world has accepted the fact that Taiwan is in fact part of China and not an independent state–a recognition signaled by US President Nixon in 1972. Tsai has indicated that she will not seek Taiwanese independence, but her election clearly indicates dissatisfaction with the island’s previous policy of rapprochement with China.
The rise of right-wing parties in Europe is a topic of great concern to the supporters of liberal democracy. There are, however, states in what used to be called eastern Europe that have already embraced “illiberal” democracy (presumably a form of democracy that offers few, if any, protections for individual freedoms, although the term “illiberal” has never been precisely defined. The leader of Hungary, Viktor Orban has declared that his objective for the country is an illiberal democracy. Now, however, the largest eastern European state and one of the most important states on the continent, Poland, seems to be moving in the same direction. Non-citizens of those states, including immigrants and refugees, have much to fear from this turn to the right.
Global stock markets are going through a very volatile period, and some analysts believe that the volatility suggests fundamental weaknesses in the global economy. The German newspaper, Finanz und Wirtschaft, conducted an interview with Art Cashin, a long-time stock analyst, about what is going on, and the interview suggests that the weaknesses are more fundamental than they superficially seem to be. Nonetheless, the economies of the world continue to favor the rich at the expense of the poor and recent data indicates that there are 62 people in the world who command as much wealth as the bottom 50% of the human race (3.5 billion people).
The Economist has an article on the parallels between the Thirty Years War (1618-1648) and the religious conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims. It is an intriguing essay, but one which overemphasizes the importance of religion in the struggles. By and large, religion is usually a veneer for power: one sect mistrusts the other, not because of religious differences, but because it fears that power will be used to favor one sect over the other. The fear of the abuse of power is usually the driver in conflicts that seem to stem from religious, ethnic, or ideological difference.
Hurricane Alex was the first Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in January. The event itself was highly unusual, but its effect on the ice pack in Greenland is proving to be even stranger. A number of researchers who study ice melt in Greenland have noticed suggestive evidence of ice melt because of the warm waters forced north by the hurricane. If the evidence becomes stronger, then the globe may be experiencing the first recorded winter ice melt–evidence that global warming has become virtually unstoppable.
Climate Central has constructed an interactive map that describes the earth if climate change processes are left completely unchecked. Without any reduction of greenhouse gases, the global temperature will rise by about 4 degrees Celsius. The implications are stark:
China, the world’s leading carbon emitter, leads the world, too, in coastal risk, with 145 million people living on land ultimately threatened by rising seas if emission levels are not reduced.
China has the most to gain from limiting warming to 2°C, which would cut the total to 64 million.
Twelve other nations each have more than 10 million people living on land at risk, led by India, Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and Japan.
The U.S. is the most threatened nation outside of Asia, with roughly 25 million people on implicated land.
Meeting the 2°C goal would cut exposure by more than half in the U.S., China, and India, the world’s top three carbon emitters, as well as in many other nations.
Global megacities with the top-10 largest threatened populations include Shanghai, Hong Kong, Calcutta, Mumbai, Dhaka, Jakarta, and Hanoi.
Sean McElwee and Vijay Das have written an op-ed piece for Al Jazeera on how campaign financing is affecting the healthcare debate in the United States. The evidence is sobering: 0.1% of the American population contributed 30% of all the campaign funds in the 2012 presidential election cycle. The choices available to the American people on healthcare is overwhelmingly influenced by these contributions.
Daesh (Islamic State) adherents staged a terror attack in central Jakarta in Indonesia. The attack mirrors other such attacks–no evidence of centralized direction but rather attacks conducted by individuals inspired by Daesh propaganda. These types of attacks are not necessarily debilitating to a strong polity, but can weaken one that already lacks a degree of legitimacy.
Scientific American has created two interactive visualizations of the refugee crisis in the world today. The effects are quite dramatic and one can choose to isolate specific countries or time periods. It is a very impressive site.
e-waste is a serious problem globally and much of the electronic waste generated in the world comes from the rich countries. Much of this waste is sent to poorer countries where a remarkable percentage of it is effectively recycled. But a lot of the toxic waste ends up being burned in poorer countries and it is a serious health problem.
I have posted many articles about the growing income inequality in the US which I regard as the most serious problem in the country right now. It has been getting worse over the last 40 years, and one of the main causes of inequality is the way the tax system favors capital over labor income. The National Bureau of Economic Research has just published a report on a tax technique of which I was unaware: the growth of “pass-through” entities which allows corporate profits to be taxed at a much lower rate. According to the NBER report:
In 1980, pass-through entities accounted for 20.7 percent of U.S. business income; by 2011, they represented 54.2 percent. Over roughly the same period, the income share of the top 1 percent of income earners doubled. Previous research has shown that the two phenomena are linked: The growth of income from pass-through entities accounted for 41 percent of the rise in the income of the top 1 percent. By linking 2011 partnership and S corporation tax returns with federal individual income tax returns, in particular Form 1065 and Form 1120S K-1 returns, the researchers find that over 66 percent of pass-through business income received by individuals goes to the top 1 percent. The concentration of partnership and S corporation income is much greater than the concentration of dividend income (45 percent to the top 1 percent) which proxies for income from C corporations (traditional corporations). While taxpayers in the top 1 percent are eight times as likely to receive dividends as taxpayers in the bottom 50 percent, the ratio for partnerships is more than 50 to 1.
Such is the sleight of hand used to disguise how the rich get richer.
Ian Buruma is a brilliant analyst/historian of world politics. One of his more recent essays analyzes the rhetoric of the current Republican candidates with respect to US policies toward Daesh (the Islamic State), specifically Senator Cruz’s promise to “carpet bomb” the caliphate and Trump’s promise to “bomb the shit” out of Daesh. Buruma points out the vulgar silliness of such policy prescriptions, advocated by people who know absolutely nothing about the experience of war.
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