Both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have raised issues about the process of globalization: Trump questions the mobility of labor and attacks immigration; Sanders questions the mobility of capital and attacks Free Trade Agreements. The candidates are thus challenging one of the fundamental tenets of the liberal ideology that has dominated the global system since 1945. The questions about globalization will likely become more visible and discussed as the sanctity of the ideology has now been raised. John Maynard Keynes once said of free trade:
“I was brought up, like most Englishmen, to respect free trade not only as an economic doctrine which a rational and instructed person could not doubt, but almost as a part of the moral law. I regarded ordinary departures from it as being at the same time an imbecility and an outrage. I thought England’s unshakable free trade convictions, maintained for nearly a hundred years, to be both the explanation before man and the justification before Heaven of her economic supremacy. As lately as 1923 I was writing that free trade was based on fundamental “truths” which, stated with their due qualifications, no one can dispute who is capable of understanding the meaning of the words.” John Maynard Keynes, “National Self-Sufficiency,” The Yale Review, Vol. 22, no. 4 (June 1933), pp. 755-769.
The backlash against globalization mirrors a similar backlash at the beginning of the 20th century, well documented by Ronald Findlay and Kevin H. O’Rourke in their book Power and Plenty. The backlash, of course, led to the rise of fascism, something which some analysts (Christopher Hedges and Thomas Franks). Both Trump and Sanders should be taken seriously as a clear symptom of the decline in the power of the ideology of free trade and the legitimacy of democracy itself.
Russia has announced that it will pull its “main forces” out of Syria. Some Russian forces will remain in Syria to enforce the “cessation of hostilities” but the Russians indicated that its primary mission of supporting President Assad had been completed. The cease-fire does not include the two main rebel groups–Daesh (the Islamic State) and Jabat al-Nusra–but it has tamped down much of the violence. The Russian decision will make it easier for the US to make concessions about the conditions under which President Assad can remain in Syria in some limited capacity.
To its great credit, China is trying to wean itself from consuming coal to produce electricity. But the decline in coal consumption has a real price: thousands of coal miners have not been paid in months, and China intends to lay off as many as 2 million coal miners over the next three years. The policies have understandably caused great harm to the miners and there has been a dramatic increase in the number of coal miner strikes, as well as a large number of strikes over all.
A car-bomb exploded in central Ankara, Turkey, killing at least 34 people and leaving 125 injured. Turkish officials blamed the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) for the explosion, but there was no claim of responsibility. In the past, the PKK or the Islamic State have been responsible for such attacks. On Friday, the US Embassy in Turkey had warned of an attack which suggests that whoever launched the attack was on the US surveillance watch screen.
Nationalist parties, such as the Alliance for Deutchsland (AfD), made strong gains in state elections in Germany. The AfD gathered enough votes to secure representation in several of those parliaments and achieved those gains largely at the expense of the parties making up Chancellor Merkel’s ruling coalition. The success of these parties reflects the growing dissatisfaction with the handling of the refugee crisis as well as an underlying anti-immigrant sentiment. Populism lives in Germany and in the political campaign of Donald Trump in the US.
Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians took to the streets to protest the continuing presidency of Dilma Rousseff. The people are protesting the scandals in the Rousseff government as well as the rapid economic decline in Brazil. The political economy of Brazil is near the breaking point and it seems likely that there will be dramatic changes in the near future.
The refugee crisis is causing the EU to bend its own rules but also international law. German Chancellor Merkel reached an agreement with Turkey that includes the following elements:
- The EU will admit one refugee for every refugee that is sent back from Greece to the Turkish refugee camps.
- Turkey is asking for around 6 billion euros ($6.6 billion) to house and feed the new migrants, as well as the 2.5 million refugees already in Turkish camps.
- It has also called on the EU to grant visa-free travel to Turkish citizens throughout the bloc – a perk Turks have long craved.
- It is also calling for an acceleration of EU accession talks, which have been languishing for nearly 30 years.
The agreement needs to ratified by the EU, but sending back refugees violates the EU Convention on the treatment of refugees as well as the international convention on the status of refugees.
Since the beginning of the Cold War, both Russia and China have been staunchly opposed to intervention for humanitarian reasons. The reason for that position was clear: both feared Western intervention to defend minorities in their countries who might have warranted protection. But that position seems to be changing. Both China and Russia are now a little more favorable to intervention since it now can be used to diminish the role of the West in propping up favorable regimes. If this trend takes hold (as it appears to have done in the cases of Crimea, North Korea, Syria, and the South China Sea), there could be greater instability in the international system.
As we have long suspected, the major powers are considering a division of Syria along ethnic and sectarian lines. Syria would remain a united nation-state, but different parts of the country would be given a high degree of autonomy to regulate local affairs. The arrangement is not dissimilar to the way other countries are ruled, e.g. Switzerland, and actually mimics, to a certain degree, the federalism which exists in the US. Opposition to the proposal remains strong among the rebel groups, but the arrangement is viewed as a face-saving way for Assad to remain in power while at the same time tamping down the violence in the country.
Australian researchers have released a study which suggests that the earth could warm by 2 degrees C by the year 2030, and not by the year 2100. The Australian model is the first to use projections of energy use per capita as well as economic and population growth. Those variables are not typically incorporated into the climate models. The research is certain to be heavily scrutinized, but we should keep our eyes on the model.
Nine days before US President Obama is scheduled to visit Cuba, the European Union has normalized relations with Cuba. The Cubans were not required to make many changes, but the policy, which had been in place for many years had not yielded any changes and there really was no hope that any would ever be forthcoming. The policy of isolation was widely regarded as both foolish and bootless.
Jeffrey Goldberg has written a fascinating essay on US President Obama’s foreign policy for The Atlantic. Goldberg traces the issues facing the US and how Obama has tried to thread a very tiny needle: how to maintain the US-constructed world order while at the same time reducing the global commitments of the country. Goldberg has some great insights into Obama’s advisers and their roles in foreign policy and how Obama has tried to adhere to his essential position that the US remains fundamentally over-committed given its limited resources. In the same issue Andrew McGill has compiled many of Obama’s statements on foreign policy to give a mosaic of his perspectives on different global problems.
Few Americans have head of Frauke Petry. She is the leader of a German political party, the Alternative for Germany. The party started out as a eurosceptic party, but has morphed into an anti-immigrant party as the country has had to confront the influx of refugees from all over the world. The party has achieved representation in several of the state parliaments, accruing up to 20% of the vote in some of the elections. It is hard to tell how lasting the party’s success will be, but, at this time, it represents a small, but potent, threat to Chancellor Merkel.
The climate change crisis is clearly upon us (as the temperature in South Hadley is 72 degrees F today (9 March!!!!)). The crisis, however, does not fit into the traditional pattern of world politics. The climate is global; nation-states are parochial. Addressing the climate change crisis will require a completely different way to think about ‘national” security. Matt McDonald has written an essay that helps us to reformulate out pattern of thinking on the global environment.
Iran has tested two long-range missiles that indicate that its military capacity is quite substantial. Importantly, the Iranian missile program was not part of the agreement reached with the P5+1 on the nuclear weapons program (it takes a great deal of effort and expertise to manufacture a nuclear warhead small enough to fit into a missile), but the P5+1 are concerned about what the tests imply. The range of the missiles definitely includes the state of Israel. The Iranian press has published numerous photos of the tests, clearly indicating that Iran wants the world to know of its capabilities.
The northern route for refugees to Europe out of Greece has now been effectively shut down. Slovenia, Serbia, and Macedonia have all closed their borders to further migrants. It is now safe to say that the Schengen Plan of the EU is now suspended. Where the refugees in Greece and Turkey now go is unclear. As the weather warms, the number of refugees seeking safety will unquestionably increase.
This year is the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot Treaty which divided up the failing Ottoman Empire between the French and the British. This act of imperialism is the source of many of the problems in the Middle East today since the lines drawn did not correspond in any way with the underlying demography of the region. Indeed, much of the fighting today is an attempt to draw new lines that are more acceptable to the Sunni, the Shia, the Kurds, and Turkey. Peter van Buren makes the case for a new Sykes-Picot Treaty–one, however, that is mutually acceptable to the actual people involved.
Inset of the Map used by Sykes and Picot
The Pew Research Center has conducted a poll in Israel which indicates that nearly half (48%) of Israeli Jews believe that Arabs should be expelled from Israel. The Center asked questions among the commonly used divisions within Israeli society: “Nearly all Israeli Jews identify with one of four categories: Haredi (commonly translated as “ultra-Orthodox”), Dati (“religious”), Masorti (“traditional”) or Hiloni (“secular”).” The analysis is quite long, and students in the world politics class should focus on the section labeled “Israeli Jews divided on the status of Arabs” (I will only ask questions on that section–4 paragraphs). The conclusions of this section of the analysis suggest that there is considerable tension within Israel about whether Israel can simultaneously be a Jewish state and a democratic state.
Data from China suggest that the world is inching closer to a global economic slowdown. Chinese exports dropped by 25.4% from last years and its imports declined by 13.8%. Global trade is down sharply as a whole, but the loss of China as an important driver of global economic growth, is significant. At this time, only the US is showing positive economic growth, although Europe is beginning to show signs of a possible rebound.
The US and South Korea are running a joint military exercise that includes mock rehearsals for an attack on North Korea’s nuclear facilities. The exercise was planned some time ago, but there is little question that the specific configurations of some of these exercises are designed to buttress the impact of the economic sanctions the UN imposed on North Korea last week. North Korea has already announced that it is ready to launch a nuclear attack against the US and South Korea.
Libyan rebels associated with Daesh (the Islamic State) attacked a town in Tunisia near the Libyan border. The attack raises fear that Daesh is trying to take advantage of the Libyan civil war and is intent on increasing its range of influence. Tunisia has been relatively stable since the Arab Spring of 2011, but no state in North Africa is immune to the pressures fueling Daesh.
The Guardian is running a series on the demographic group known as “millennials”–those people born between 1980 and the mid-1990s. The circumstance of this cohort is different from previous generations, not jut in the US but in many rich countries. According to The Guardian:
In seven major economies in North America and Europe, the growth in income of the average young couple and families in their 20s has lagged dramatically behind national averages over the past 30 years.
In two of these countries – the US and Italy – disposable incomes for millennials are scarcely higher in real terms than they were 30 years ago, while the rest of the population has experienced handsome gains.
It is likely to be the first time in industrialised history, save for periods of war or natural disaster, that the incomes of young adults have fallen so far when compared with the rest of society.
It remains to be seen how these grim conditions affect the politics of rich countries. Typically, such economic adversity contributes to a sense of unfairness which is usually politically volatile.
Negative interest rates are difficult to comprehend. There are few historical examples to rely upon to guide predictions on their total effects, but the logic of negative interest rates is quite simple: banks punish people who save and reward people who spend. The expected spending should stimulate the economy as people spend more money. But negative interest rates also have other effects that may undermine that objective. The New York Times has an excellent article that serves as a good primer on negative interest rates.
The China Television Drama Production Industry Association has issued a new set of guidelines for what can be shown on Chinese television (if you can read Chinese, you can read the report here). According to Western media, the new rules “banned depictions of gay people on television, as part of a national clampdown on ‘vulgar, immoral and unhealthy content’.” The Hong Kong Free Press has an article which is consistent with the Western interpretation: “Depictions of homosexuality, extramarital affairs, underage love and the supernatural are no longer allowed in television dramas under new regulations in mainland China.”
On 23 December 2015 Ukraine suffered a massive electricity blackout. It is now being learned that Ukraine was the victim of a highly sophisticated cyber attack. The US Department of Homeland Security has a special branch, the Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Response Team, which identified the attack as coming from a “remote region” on three facilities in Ukraine. Such attacks are devastating to a state’s industrial infrastructure and represents a dimension of warfare that is difficult to prevent.
The Turkish Government has closed two newspapers, Zaman and Zaman Today, the largest circulating newspapers in Turkey. The closures came after the police used tear gas and water cannons to shut down the dailies. The government believes that the newspapers are associated with the Cemaat movement which it believes to be a terrorist organization. Cemaat is led by the U.S.-based Muslim cleric, Fethullah Gulen, who was once an ally of President Erdogan but who is now opposed to the President. The move is just the latest in a series of attempts to stifle opposition in Turkey, further alienating the country from the US and Europe.
Protests in Turkey
The “cessation of hostilities” in Syria has been somewhat working since it started last week. Fighting is sporadic and limited, and humanitarian agencies have been able to deliver some supplies. The UN is seeking an extension of the lull, and the Europeans are taking the lead on negotiating with Russia to create favorable conditions for its extension. The cease-fire has unquestionably aided the forces of President Assad. Thus, there are strategic losses associated with it, but perhaps a degree of stability will allow compromises to emerge.
The refugee crisis is currently bottled up in Greece, as Macedonia and other countries to the north of Greece have closed their borders. The refugee camps in Greece are completely full and are scenes of abject misery. Unless the European Union can come up with an acceptable policy (the continent could handle 2-3 million more people given that its total population now is about 500 million), it is likely that the Union may disintegrate. Spiegel assesses the situation in this way:
Were Europe in agreement, it would be unproblematic to accommodate 2-3 million refugees, given the Continent’s population of a half billion people. From such a perspective, the current spat actually seems somewhat ridiculous. But in the run up to next week’s EU summit, Europe is gripped by strife. Europe’s greatest achievement, the opening of its borders through the Schengen agreement, is at stake, and the increasingly toxic atmosphere between countries has reached alarming dimensions.
The crisis is perhaps the most serious ever in the history of the Union.
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