At age 74, Muhammed Ali has died. He was one of my heroes when I was in college even though I was not at all a boxing fan. But Ali was proud of who he was and always spoke his mind. His pride in being a black man was inspiring and his defense of civil rights was rock solid. And he jeopardized his career by refusing to be drafted to fight in the Vietnam War, proving to everyone that nothing was more important to him than to be the person he knew he was. He was a great role model.
Chile is suing Bolivia to assert its rights to the water of the Silala River which originates in Bolivia and enters the Atacama Desert in Chile. Bolivia is using the water from the river as a bargaining chip to restore its rights to access to the Pacific Ocean which it lost in the War of the Pacific (1879-1883) which was fought by Bolivia and Peru against Chile. The issue of fresh water is increasingly an issue of national security.
Boundaries Before the War of the Pacific
Spiegel Online has a very dramatic interactive series of graphics on extreme poverty in the world. It is a little difficult to navigate at the beginning, but once one gets the hang of it, the graphics reveal incredible detail and nuance in the analysis of poverty. It is quite remarkable.
The Universal Basic Income is a very old idea which has been floated around by various individuals over a long period of time. Thomas Paine, for example, in his pamphlet, Agrarian Justice (1795), argued that every citizen was due a part of his or her natural patrimony: the land upon which the civilization depends.
“[10] It is a position not to be controverted that the earth, in its natural, uncultivated state was, and ever would have continued to be, the common property of the human race. In that state every man would have been born to property. He would have been a joint life proprietor with rest in the property of the soil, and in all its natural productions, vegetable and animal.
[11] But the earth in its natural state, as before said, is capable of supporting but a small number of inhabitants compared with what it is capable of doing in a cultivated state. And as it is impossible to separate the improvement made by cultivation from the earth itself, upon which that improvement is made, the idea of landed property arose from that parable connection; but it is nevertheless true, that it is the value of the improvement, only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property.
[12] Every proprietor, therefore, of cultivated lands, owes to the community a ground-rent (for I know of no better term to express the idea) for the land which he holds; and it is from this ground-rent that the fund proposed in this plan is to issue.”
The “ground-rent” is what the owners of property owe to everyone who had a natural right to the land before it was divided up into private property.
The idea has been picked up at various times as a substitute for an incoherent welfare system that is excessively bureaucratic and as a fiscal stimulus policy. More recently, it has been touted as a way to provide incomes in the absence of jobs. Since 2008, job creation has been very sluggish due to globalization and automation of many jobs. The Swiss just held a referendum on whether such a policy should be adopted and it was overwhelmingly rejected. It is, apparently, still an idea whose time has not come.
The US now conducts more joint naval exercises with India than with any other country in the world (that fact snuck up on everyone). Given the size of the Indian Ocean and the competition of both countries with China, that reality is not surprising from a strategic point of view. India, however, is quite uncomfortable with the closeness of the relationship since it it also wishes to remain independent of all great powers. But the growing power of China in Southeast Asia gives it little choice in alternative allies.
Saudi Arabia has announced that the beginning of Ramadan will begin on Monday, 6 June. It confirmed seeing the crescent moon that marks the first day of the ninth month. During the month, Muslims will abstain from eating, drinking, smoking and having marital relations from dawn until sunset. It was during this month that the Quran was revealed to the Prophet Muhammed.
Turkey reacted with great fury to the vote in the German Bundestag to recognize the Armenian genocide of 1915. Turkish Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said to Germany: “First you burn the Jews in ovens and then you come and accuse the Turkish people of genocide.” The US does not recognize the Armenian genocide even though it is home to the second largest community of Armenians outside of Armenia. Despite the efforts of many in Congress to pass such a resolution, US strategic ties to Turkey preclude such a declaration.
Tomorrow is the 27th anniversary of the pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China. The protests were suppressed by force, but it is unclear how many protesters were killed. Discussion of the anniversary is not permitted in China, but it represents the beginning of the contract between the Chinese government and its citizens: the Communist Party will deliver strong economic growth and the citizens will not object to the lack of open discussion on the role of the Party in economic and political affairs. That contract has been honored in large part, although the economic slowdown in China is raising questions about whether the Party can deliver on its end of the contract.
The Iconic Image of a Lone Protester Facing PLA Tanks, 4 June 1989
The German Parliament has voted to recognize the slaughter of Armenians during World War I by Turkish officials as genocide. At the beginning of the war there were 2 million Armenians living in what was then the Ottoman Empire; at the end of the war there were 400,000. In the midst of the war, a movement arose led by what were called the “Young Turks” to Turkify the territory where Turks lived–that movement ultimately led to the creation of modern Turkey under the leadership of Ataturk. Germany was allied with the Ottoman Empire during the war and the Young Turks believed that the Armenians were working with their enemy, the Russians. No one disputes the fact that many Armenians were slaughtered as a consequence.
Modern Turks deny that a genocide occurred. Indeed, the word “genocide” was not even used as a word until 1944 and it was coined to describe the horror of the holocaust. The key disagreement over what happened to the Armenians centers on the question of “intent”. The Turks insist that there was never any intent to eliminate the Armenian people but that the Armenians represented a national security risk to the insists of the state of Turkey in a war. It is against the law in Turkey to refer to the Armenian slaughter as “genocide”.
Armenians believe that the policies employed against them during the war could have no other outcome other than their extermination and that the issue of intent was implicit in the pre-ordained outcome. The Armenian communities all over the world have been lobbying hard to have their suffering recognized as deliberate. The German Parliament voted to label the atrocities as genocide because Germany was allied with the Young Turks and contributed to their ability to kill Armenians.
The vote undoubtedly complicates the German-Turkish relationship which has emerged as a central issue in the refugee crisis in Europe. More than 20 countries, including France, have recognized the genocide, but Chancellor Merkel has been working with President Erdogan in regulating the flow of refugees out of Syria. Turkey has demanded money and visa-free travel for its citizens in Europe for that cooperation, but today it called back its Ambassador to Germany for “consultation”.
The Walk Free Foundation, based in Australia, estimates that there are about 45 million slaves in the world today, and that the majority of those slaves live in India, (18.4 million), followed by China (3.4 million), Pakistan (2.1 million), Bangladesh (1.5 million), and Uzbekistan (1.2 million). The Foundation released its Global Slavery Index which has a wealth of information about this incredible situation. It is hard to believe that despite laws against slavery in every country on the planet that this practice is so pervasive.
Reuters has published a satellite map of the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) that are currently transporting petroleum from the Middle East to Asia. The yellow dots on the map indicate the location of VLCCs on 11 April–as much as 200 million barrels of oil were floating on the oceans on that date. In the article, Reuters also shows the location of crude carriers that were waiting in line to offload their cargo at various ports in Asia. The traffic jam is incredible as traders are waiting for the price of oil to rise so that greater profits can be made when the oil is offloaded.
The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research has released poll results which show a very high level of disillusionment among Americans with their political system. According to the poll:
“Seventy percent of Americans say they feel frustrated about this year’s presidential election, including roughly equal proportions of Democrats and Republicans….. More than half feel helpless and a similar percent are angry.
“Nine in 10 Americans lack confidence in the country’s political system, and among a normally polarized electorate, there are few partisan differences in the public’s lack of faith in the political parties, the nominating process, and the branches of government.
“Americans do not see either the Republicans or the Democrats as particularly receptive to new ideas or the views of the rank-and-file membership.”
These results suggest that the American political system is far more fragile than is popularly believed.
Foxconn, a Taiwanese company that produces many of the components for Apple and Samsung products and that operates primarily in China, has announced plans to replace 60,000 workers in China with robots. That factory will go from 110,000 workers to 50,000. Foxconn has had serious labor problems in the past and this move solves a number of those problems, but it raises another, more serious, societal problem: what will these workers now do? China’s lower wage advantage has slowly been eroded as wages have increased. a development that is a clear consequence of globalization. But going from low wage production to no wage production suggests a longer term problem of consumer demand in a market economy.
For what we think is the fifth time, North Korea was unable to launch successfully its intermediate range ballistic missile. South Korean official asserted that the launch did not survive take-off. There were three tests in April, all of which failed, and North Korea seems eager to deploy the missile but will not likely do so until it tests one successfully. The UN Security Council has banned such missiles and it appears as if China is quite concerned about North Korea developing the capability. North Korea, however, does not seem to be concerned about the apprehensions of neighboring states.
The rise of right-wing parties in Europe has led to a flurry of articles and op-eds about the possible rise of fascism in Europe. The term is too loosely applied: while there are some striking similarities between the 1930s and the 2010s in Europe, there are also some very important differences. Zack Beauchamp interviews Cas Mudde, an associate professor at the University of Georgia and specialist on the European far right, in Vox. Professor Mudde makes some very important distinctions between nativism, nationalism, xenophobia, and fascism about which we should be aware when we discuss right-wing politics in the world today.
Former Chadian president Hissène Habré has been sentenced to life in prison by a special court set up in Senegal by the African Union. Habré was charged with crimes against humanity, war crimes and torture in July of 2013 after his arrest in Senegal. Habré ruled Chad from 1982 to 1990 and allegedly came to power with the help of the US Central Intelligence Agency. His rule was marked by horrific crimes, including rape, sexual slavery and ordering killings.
Relatives of Habre’s Victims at the Trial
NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly finished a three-day meeting in Albania and issued a declaration “to provide reassurance to those allies who feel their security is under threat, focusing on the eastern and southern flanks of the alliance.” Poland, the Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia), and Turkey have been pressuring NATO to take a stronger stance against perceived Russian assertiveness. The Russians, on the other hand, assert that it is NATO that is acting provocatively. This cycle of mutual suspicion has been building ever since NATO intervened in Bosnia in 1994 against Serbia, a Russian ally, despite efforts to attain an equilibrium in military power in Europe in 1997 in the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation signed in Paris, France. Unless this cycle is broken, a new Cold War is inevitable.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a speech yesterday in which he stated that “no Muslim family can understand and accept” birth control and family planning. The statement enraged many women in Turkey who consider Erdogan’s views to be straight out of the “Middle Ages.” Turkey’s population is one of the fastest growing populations in the region, and it is significantly higher than many European states–a real consideration as the European Union considers Turkish accession to the Union.
Bernard Avishai has written a short essay for the New Yorker that fleshes out the political dynamics behind Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision to appoint Avigdor Lieberman as his Defense Minister. Apparently the move came after attempts by Tony Blair, the former British Prime Minister, to resuscitate the peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians collapsed. In trying to secure the support of the most right-wing members of the settler movement, Prime Minister Netanyahu has succeeded in alienating the Israeli army, unquestionably the most revered element of Israeli society.
The US and NATO have announced plans to deploy an anti-missile system in Poland and Romania, ostensibly to protect Europe from Iranian missiles. Such a threat is hard to imagine despite the fact that Iran has been testing ballistic missiles–there seems to be no reason why Iran would be contemplating an attack against European states. Russia, on the other hand, considers the deployment an attempt to cancel out Russia’s strategic arsenal as leverage over Europe. Russian President Putin made clear his concerns about the deployment:
“If yesterday in those areas of Romania people simply did not know what it means to be in the cross-hairs, then today we will be forced to carry out certain measures to ensure our security….It will be the same case with Poland.”
The threat was explicit and it will be interesting to see how these two states respond.
Iran and Saudi Arabia have failed to come to an agreement on Hajj travel this year. The Hajj is the fifth pillar of Islam and all Muslims who are physically and financially able are required to visit the city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia and to perform several rituals including circling the Ka’abah in the Holy Mosque seven times counter clockwise. Saudi Arabia and Iran broke off relations last year after hundreds of Iranians died during the Hajj and Iranians stormed the Saudi Embassy after Saudi Arabia executed a Shia cleric. The inability of Iranians to make the Hajj is a very serious matter.
A team of IMF economists has published a paper that suggests that the policies known as neoliberalism–reduced taxation, reduced governmental regulation, and reduced government spending–are counterproductive and harmful. Neoliberalism has been the main policies employed by governments and enforced by international organizations for the last thirty years, since the administrations of US President Reagan and British Prime Minister Thatcher. While neoliberalism did foster economic growth, the consequences of neoliberalism, notably rising economic inequality, offset those benefits. The economists argued that:
“Increased inequality in turn hurts the level and sustainability of growth. Even if growth is the sole or main purpose of the neoliberal agenda, advocates of that agenda still need to pay attention to the distributional effects.”
This reassessment is long overdue and let’s hope that the insight is followed.
For some time doctors have been warning that the overuse of antibiotics, in medicine and agriculture, would lead to the development of bacteria that are immune to the current panoply of antibiotics. It appears as if that time has come as doctors have diagnosed a patient in Pennsylvania with a bacteria that is resistant to colistin, the antibiotic of last resort. Colistin is widely used in China in breeding pigs and the first cases of colistin-resistant bacteria were detected there last November. It has since spread worldwide. The Director of the US Center for Disease Control (CDC), Tom Frieden, is quoted as saying:
“It basically shows us that the end of the road isn’t very far away for antibiotics — that we may be in a situation where we have patients in our intensive-care units, or patients getting urinary tract infections for which we do not have antibiotics.”
Climate is weather over the very long-term. If the climate is indeed changing, then at some point the weather has to change beyond its “normal” parameters. Since weather does vary quite a bit, it is difficult to tell when those parameters are being violated in a systematic manner. Some meteorologists, however, are beginning to think that weather is finally changing in a manner consistent with predicted climate change. In other words, climate change is already happening.
US President Obama’s foreign policy will go down in American diplomatic history as one of the most paradoxical. He ran for President promising to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; he will end is Presidency with American troops still fighting in both countries as well as in Syria. He also pledged in 2009 to work for a nuclear-free world; he is ending his Presidency by developing even more lethal nuclear weapons with “a new class of ballistic missile submarine, a new stealth bomber, upgrades to the current stock of nuclear weapons, a new cruise missile and billions of dollars of other programs.” Yet he is hardly known as a bellicose or warlike President. Time, however, will tell.
Russia has released Nadiya Savchenko from prison. Svachenko was a Ukrainian helicopter pilot who was captured while fighting Russian forces in Ukraine and sentenced to 22 years in prison. Her early release, after two years in prison, was part of a prisoner exchange, and Ukrainian politicians greeted her as a hero–she was elected to the Ukranian Parliament in absentia. Her presence, however, will complicate efforts for a peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian dispute since she has no sympathy for the peace process. She was quoted on her release as saying: “We can achieve peace only through war.”
Nadiya Savchenko while in a Russian prison
The Centre for Research on Globalization is a reliably lefty organization which publishes intelligent critiques of contemporary politics and economics. It has published an essay on the rise of right -wing parties in Europe and ties that development to the politics of anti-globalization. The essay relies on a distinction between nationalism and neo-nationalism that I find unnecessarily abstract, but the argument itself is solid. The essay quotes theleader of the National Front in France, Marine Le Pen, as saying:
“Globalization is a barbarity, it is the country which should limit its abuses and regulate it [globalization].”…Today the world is in the hands of multinational corporations and large international finance” …Immigration ‘weighs down on wages,’ while the minimum wage is now becoming the maximum wage”
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