A day after US Defense Secretary, Ashton Carter, announced that an agreement had been reached with Turkey on its participation in the battle to regain Mosul, the Iraqi Prime Minister announced that Turkish troops would not be welcome in the battle. It is not clear what agreement the US and Turkey had reached, but the disagreements among all the participants in the effort to dislodge Daesh (the Islamic State) from Mosul are considerable. The battle itself has been moving slowly due to the determined resistance of the Daesh fighters. Daesh set a sulphur mine on fire to slow down the Iraqi advance, and the attacking forces have been forced to wear protective gear from the noxious fumes.
We should never doubt the importance of good government. Hurricane Matthew passed over both Cuba and Haiti with equal ferocity, but the preparedness of the Cuban government handled the devastation without a single casualty. Haiti, on the other hand is still reeling from the destruction and conditions continue to deteriorate. Creating an effective government is not something outsiders can do, but the international community should be offering much greater assistance to the people of Haiti if a greater disaster is to be avoided.
The Distributed Denial of Services (DDoS) attack on the Internet could be a harbinger of things to come. Patrick Tucker and Caroline Houck have written a short piece on how the attack was orchestrated and how these attacks have played out in the past. Attacking the internet is quite different from attacking a site on the internet. Anyone who wishes to take down the entire internet obviously has objectives that transcend specific political goals. It is very difficult to imagine how we would conduct our business today without the internet.
You may have experienced some difficulties with web sites today. There was an incredible denial of services attack against a major domain host that targeted the east coast (and is now migrating to the west coast) of the US. The graphic below shows a heat map of the flood of requests that have overwhelmed the services. If you want to be completely mesmerized, you may want to check out a real-time map of the attacks. The real-time map is at Norse Corp and it is currently overwhelmed with requests, so it may take several attempts to actually get to the site. The vulnerability of the web is something that we clearly do not fully appreciate, and we have come to take it for granted. It is probably a big mistake to rely on such a fragile instrument.
Jacobin is a left-wing journals around that often has articles very critical of American foreign policy. In a recent issue, it ran an article that questions the idea of a no-fly zone in Syria. That humanitarian gesture has been floated by a number of analysts recently as a way of providing some assistance to the beleaguered people of Syria. The proposal responds to the powerful desire to do something, but as the article points out it is a policy that is fraught with risks.
South Africa has taken steps to withdraw form the International Criminal Court. The immediate cause for the South African move is the criticism by the court of the South African decision not to honor the ICC’s demand to arrest the indicted leader of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, when he visited South Africa. South Africa believes that the demand was incompatible with South African sovereignty. But there is a larger issue in play as well: since its inception, all 28 indictments handed down by the Court have been against Africans.
As the issues of immigration and refugees becomes more prominent in political discussions, it maybe instructive to see the variety of ways states denote their borders.
The Indian-Pakistani border highlighted by the bright orange lights set up by India to prevent smuggling
The border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland denoted by the change in asphalt in the road.
The border between the Netherlands and Belgium
The US-Canadian border in the Haskell Library, deliberately built along the boundary.
US-Mexican border near Nogales, Arizona
In Beijing, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced that he is “separating” his country from the US and that he will align his country with China. In fact, he is quoted as saying to the Chinese: “I will be dependent on you.” Duterte is further quoted to indicate that he wishes to ally the Philippines to Russia as well. Apparently, the declaration of fealty to China caught his Chinese hosts by surprise but they were undoubtedly delighted. There was no indication of how the Chinese-Filipino South China Sea dispute will be addressed, but the critical question is whether that possible resolution could serve as a model for the other Southeast nations with claims in the sea.
One of the dominant issues in contemporary American foreign policy is the extent to which the US should attempt to pull back its overseas commitments. The US went from a fairly unconnected state to one with a presence in every corner of the planet in a remarkably short period of time. It currently has about 700 overseas bases that support its ability to project power. Analysts in the US are beginning to raise some fairly elemental questions about this presence, and The National Interest has an excellent article on whether the US truly needs to maintain such a ubiquitous role in world affairs.
Urthecast is a company that publishes satellite images of the earth. Some of these photographs are stunning–for a view of their gallery, click here. Today it published an image of the scorched earth tactics of Daesh (the Islamic State) as it tries to defend the city of Mosul. The New York Times published an article on Daesh’s tactics in Mosul and the evidence suggests that the upcoming battle will be brutal.
Infrared view of the Mosul District taken by UrtheCast on October 18 showing oil fields deliberately set on fire.
Reuters is reporting that Russia is sending its entire Northern Fleet and a good part of its Baltic Fleet, including its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, to the eastern Mediterranean. The fleet is being deployed to support what looks like the final assault on the city of Aleppo. It is Russia’s largest naval deployment since the Cold War and it is an unmistakeable sign that Russia fully intends to support Syrian President Assad to the fullest extent. The graphic below is a representation of the disposition of American and Russian naval forces in the summer of 2013–I cannot even imagine what it going to look like in a few days.
In 1935, Sinclair Lewis published a novel entitled It Can Happen Here. It was a novel of how an authoritarian leader was elected President of the US. Lewis wrote the novel in the context of the rise of authoritarian regimes throughout Europe in the 1930s. As we witness the resurgence of right-wing parties throughout the globe, it might be instructive to think about how far this tendency might go. As we ponder this question, as Larry Diamond does in The Atlantic, we should also remember that few in Germany in 1933 ever thought how bad things might eventually get.
The propaganda war between the US and Russia continues. The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has closed the accounts of the media outlet RT (once known as Russia Today). RT is generally regarded as a news outlet for the Russian government and it regularly publishes articles that toe the official Russian government line. RBS suggests that the closure is related to the fear that holding the accounts of RT may violate the sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia for its annexation of Crimea. RT claims that the act is an attempt to silence the voice of the Kremlin in world affairs. No matter what the actual reasons are, it is incontestable that the action is consistent with the US objective of sending messages to Russia about its alleged interference in the US election cycle.
As the world struggles with anemic economic growth, the question of how best to revive the global economy has become central. There are essentially two policy suggestions. The neoliberal perspective argues that the slow growth is due to fundamental imbalances in revenues and spending. This perspective focuses on reducing spending to match revenues so that debt levels can be brought down and investor confidence restored. This point of view argues for policies that favor capital so that productive investments will be made. The redistributive perspective argues that the slow growth is due to insufficient demand caused by inadequate wages. This point of view favors policies that increase the purchasing power of labor so that demand can be stimulated. The redistributive approach is captured by Stephen Koukalas in The Guardian.
Shadi Hamid has written an essay on American power in world affairs that will undoubtedly make some readers happy and others completely outraged. He takes on the part of the American left that holds that American military power is almost always ineffective and destructive. An example of his rhetoric:
“The alternative to a proactive and internationalist U.S. policy is to “do no harm,” and this might seem a safe fallback position: Foreign countries and cultures are too complicated to understand, so instead of trying to understand them, let’s at least not make the situation worse. The idea that the U.S. can “do no harm,” however, depends on the fiction that the most powerful nation in the world can ever be truly “neutral” in foreign conflicts, not just when it acts, but also when it doesn’t. Neutrality, or silence, is often complicity, something that was once the moral, urgent claim of the Left. The fiction of neutrality is growing more dangerous, as we enter a period of resurgent authoritarianism, anti-refugee incitement, and routine mass killing.”
The essay is provocative but raises issues that should be addressed and not dismissed. It will really make one think.
The evidence seems clear that Russian hackers broke into the computers of organizations associated with the Democratic Party in the US. Whether the Russian government was involved in the hack, or what the motives for the hack were, remain unclear. But interfering with elections is not unusual. The US has a very long record of electoral interference: in Guatemala in 1954, in Iran in 1953, in the Congo in 19161, and in Chile in 1973, to name just a few. So outrage at the Russians should be tempered with a large dose of humility.
Speaking of elections, Saudi Arabia has just hired its 10th lobbying firm to press its agenda in Washington, DC. The recent law allowing American citizens to sue Saudi Arabia for damages associated with 11 September 2001 has clearly spooked the Saudis and they are not taking any chances of missing an opportunity to revise the law. But it also reflects the Saudi fear that the US is getting too close to its mortal enemy, Iran. For a monarchy, the Saudis definitely understand how a democracy works.
Julian Assange, the founder of Wikileaks, has been in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London for the last four years. He sought refuge there after Swedish police wanted to question him about charges against him for sexual assault. He is a hero to many because of his willingness to publish highly classified materials that shed light on government activities that were (and are) highly controversial. But Wikileaks has been publishing many documents that were stolen from organizations associated with the US Democratic Party and it seems clear that the leaks have a clear political objective. Today we learned that Assange’s internet access from the Embassy has been severed, according to Wikileaks, by a “state” actor. Hacking the hacker?
Rudaw is a Kurdish media outlet and it is useful to tap into alternative media sources to ferret out information that is not easily available from the more traditional sources. As it appears likely that the assault on the city of Mosul to dislodge Daesh (the Islamic State) will begin any day now, one should keep in mind that the various parties involved in the battle do not really care for each other. As the Rudaw report makes clear, the Kurdish attitude toward Iranian troops is quite hostile. The report quotes the Iraqi spokesperson: “Regarding the Turkish troops and other foreign troops, it is interference in Iraqi affairs. Whether they are from Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Qatar – cooperation should be only with the Kurdistan Region and Iraqi forces.” We will see whether these outside troops stay out of the battle and whether the attackers end up fighting each other.
I posted on 14 October a report that the US is preparing a cyberattack on Russia for the purpose of releasing information that would be personally embarrassing to Russian President Putin. RT, a Russian news outlet, has published an article which suggests that such an effort would result in a ” geopolitical maelstrom.” The article is also useful since it provides an insight into how the Russian government regards the possibility of a Clinton Presidency–if she is elected, I suspect that US relations with Russia will only become much frostier than they are today.
Philippines President Duterte is scheduled to travel to China this week for diplomatic discussions. He has been quite hostile to the US recently which many analysts interpreted as a sign that he was willing to compromise on the South China Sea dispute even though the international tribunal at the Hague completely rejected the Chinese claims. Apparently, that is not his strategy. He was just quoted as saying: “I will not bargain anywhere, we will continue to insist that is ours, the international tribunal decision will be taken up.” The discussions in Beijing should be quite interesting.
Over the last twenty years we have witnessed two parallel developments in the world: a striking rise in income inequality in the world as well as a dramatic surge in nationalism. Many analysts (myself included) suspect that there is a strong link between the two changes, but parsing out the links between them is very difficult. Robert Shiller, an economist from Yale, lays out some of the possible relationships and suggests that there are some very strong causal relationships.
More than 150 countries reached an agreement to limit the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) which are used in refrigerators and air conditioners. HFCs are powerful greenhouse gases and the agreement builds upon an earlier agreement, the Montreal Protocol, which limited chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in other circumstances. The agreement affects countries differently, according to their level of development. According to The Guardian: “Rich countries, including the US, Japan and Europe, will start phasing out synthetic HFCs in 2019, China in 2024, and India and less ambitious countries in 2028.
Analysts are becoming increasingly concerned about US-Russian relations. Both sides accuse each other of provocative actions, and there is certainly enough evidence to suggest that both sides are engaging in activities that are plausibly hostile. Russia, however, seems to be playing from a position of relative weakness given the low price of oil and the Western sanctions which have depressed its economy. The New Yorker has an excellent article which outlines possible Russian intentions and capabilities.
As the debate over free trade continues in both the US and Europe, there is a tendency to think that the proper approach to trade is either/or: either a state has a commitment to free trade or it does not. Dani Rodrik, an Economics Professor at Harvard, suggests that we should think about trade in more nuanced terms. His words are wise:
“….we need a better balance between national autonomy and globalization. In particular, we need to place the requirements of liberal democracy ahead of those of international trade and investment. Such a rebalancing would leave plenty of room for an open global economy; in fact, it would enable and sustain it.”
The political debates lose sight of this essential truth and do us all a disservice by not framing a useful discussion.
NBC News is reporting that the US is preparing to wage cyberwar against Russia in retaliation for Russian hacking of American political sites. The CIA and other agencies have been instructed to gain access to Russian computers in order to make public information that would be embarrassing to Russian leadership, particularly Russian President Putin. The most likely targets would be electronic records that would document offshore banking accounts held by Putin and his cohort. Apparently President Obama has to give the final approval to the plan, but its primary purpose would be to send a message to the world that hacking into American computers would always invite retaliation.
The US has had soldiers in Afghanistan since October 2001 and the security situation in the country has yet to be stabilized. The Taliban continue to mount offensives in the country although most of the population of the country is in government-controlled areas. President Obama came into office vowing to end military operations in Afghanistan, but he will be handing the war off to his successor. Indeed, President Obama will leave with the US involved in more wars than when he took office: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and, now, Yemen.
The International Food Policy Research Institute has published its Global Hunger Index for 2016 (Students in the World Politics course need only read the “Summary” for purposes of the weekly quiz). The Index measures the degree and severity of food insecurity in most countries of the world and this year’s report indicates that there has been measurable progress in reducing levels of malnutrition and starvation in the world. Nonetheless, the report finds that “Levels of hunger are serious or alarming in 50 countries.”
Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej has died. The King was the most recent holder of the Chakri dynasty which has ruled Thailand since 1782 and ascended to the throne in 1946. He guided the country through two military dictatorships and was viewed as a stabilizing force in Thai politics. He was revered by most Thais even though he held little formal power. His departure comes at a very sensitive time in Thai politics since the country has been ruled by a military junta since 2014 and the country has yet to return to a full democracy. Bhumibol’s son, Vajiralongkorn, will become the new King of Thailand.
In class we have talked about the difficulty of “recalibrating” power as weak powers become strong (as is the case with China in the contemporary world). The difficulties of adjusting to changes in the balance of power was the source of the conflict that led to the Peloponnesian War: Sparta became increasingly concerned at how Athenian power grew dramatically and quickly. Graham Allison refers to the conundrum as the “Thucydides Trap” in an essay which elegantly posed the difficulties of balancing when the targets are moving.
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