Virtually all the adults have been moved out of the refugee center in Calais and into small towns scattered all over France. It remains to be seen whether the move will be successful. If the French economy were booming, the chances for effective integration would be much higher. But it certainly does not sound like there are many jobs for the migrants. Nor does it seem like they are being welcomed by the residents of the smaller, agricultural areas. It also appears as if many of the migrants have decided to remain in the larger cities, and are coping in ways that will likely make it difficult for all.
Belgium has decided to approved the trade pact with Canada despite the recent referendum results in the province of Wallonia. The pact was therefore saved and the European Union will sign CETA. The reasons for the affirmative vote are opaque. Belgium declared that changes had been made to satisfy the agricultural interests in the country. Canadian officials said that no part of the pact had been changed. Obviously, there were some tense negotiations in Brussels and perhaps we will never know what happened. But it was likely impossible for Belgium to resist the pressure of its much more powerful neighbors. In this particular case, globalization has prevailed over nationalism.
The Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) Project is based at the College of William & Mary’s Institute for the Theory and Practice of International Relations (ITPIR). The project regularly polls IR scholars (they even ask me!!?!) about foreign policy issues. Their most recent poll asked questions about US involvement in the global economy–essentially a question about support for globalization. The discrepancy between IR scholars and the general public on this issue is stark, but it is clear that educational attainment is the critical variable.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been named a “core” leader by the Communist Party, a term formerly reserved for Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Mr. Xi continues to consolidate power in China in ways that undermine that collective power of the Party leadership. The move was endorsed by the People’s Daily, the Party’s media mouthpiece (Google will translate the article for those who cannot read Chinese). The move also mimics the global shift toward stronger single-person leadership, a troubling trend for democracy.
In terms of protest votes, few countries do it as well as Iceland (although, for a while, the Five Star Movement in Italy was doing quite well). The people once voted the candidate of the Best Party to be mayor of their capital city. But now the Pirate Party is poised to become one of the dominant players in Icelandic politics. The Party formed in 2012 as a protest against corruption in the government. It crowdsourced a constitution and believes strongly in direct democracy. But it is a little thin on policy so far.
Russia lost its seat on the UN Human Rights Council after it failed to secure enough votes to retain its seat. There was organized opposition to Russia’s continued membership becuase of concerns over Russia’s conduct in the Syrian civil war. The Council membership is determined by a vote by the 193 countries comprising the UN General Assembly. There were also efforts to keep Saudi Arabia off the Council but that effort failed.
Steven Cook has written an essay for The Atlantic which discusses one of the fundamental assumptions of Liberalism: that there are universal human rights. He poses the issue in a very interesting way by asking the question “How Should Culture Affect Foreign Policy?” Some of Cook’s insights are genuinely controversial:
“Maybe Egyptians, for example, have not been able to carry out economic reforms hatched in Washington effectively because those reforms undermine a sense of communal solidarity and a large, patriarchal Arab state, which seem linked to an Egyptian cultural milieu that valorizes these things.”
Yet the question deserves an answer. Perhaps the failures of American foreign policy in various areas of the world are due to an unwillingness to modify or adapt central assumptions of liberal thought to local conditions. But how far should these principles be bent?
The Living Planet assessment, by the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) and the World Wildlife Federation, has found that global wildlife populations have declined by 58% over the last 40 years. According to the BBC:
“The researchers conclude that vertebrate populations are declining by an average of 2% each year, and warn that if nothing is done, wildlife populations could fall by 67% (below 1970 levels) by the end of the decade.”
One should not put too much stock in the numbers themselves. While there is broad agreement that wildlife populations are declining, the difficulties in collecting accurate information are formidable. The trend, however, is clear.
Pussy Riot is a Russian punk rock band that takes great delight in preforming in ways that challenges the powers that be. The members of the band performed “Punk Prayer – Mother of God, Chase Putin Away!” in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in Moscow in 2012 and two members of the punk band spent 21 months in jail charged with “hooliganism motivated by religious hatred”. They have now released a music video entitled “Vagina” as a slap against Donald Trump. It is unquestionably intended to offend so I would not recommend the video to anyone with reasonable sensibilities. But art is a potent expression of many parts of society that are typically voiceless, so an offensive voice is sometimes better than silence.
For a number of years, many states have been pushing for a whale sanctuary in the South Atlantic. The International Whaling Commission was created in 1946 in order to protect whales and other cetaceans which were in danger of extinction due to hunting. The proposal was defeated–38 countries voted yes and 24 against–but the Commission requires a 75% affirmative vote to make the recommendation binding. The opposition to the sanctuary was led by Japan some of whose citizens regard whale meat as a delicacy. Hunting continues under the rubric of “scientific research” but that loophole is disingenuous.
The Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte, has announced that he wants all foreign troops out of the Philippines. The US currently has 5 military bases in the Philippines which are regarded as centrally important to maintain a US role in Pacific affairs. Duterte made the announcement during a stop in Japan from his meetings in China and the announcement undoubtedly rattled the Japanese who regard the US presence in the region as critically important.
The Russian naval fleet en route from Severomorsk, Russia to the coast of Syria has decided not to re-fuel at the Spanish facilities in Ceuta, off the Strait of Gilbraltar. The initial Russian request placed Spain, a NATO member, in an awkward position since NATO countries are uncomfortable with the Russian role in Syria, particularly the suspicion that the Russians are committing war crimes. Ordinarily a request to re-fuel is not considered a military act among states that have peaceful relations, but the pressure on Spain was probably quite intense.
For perhaps the first time in the last 3 million years, levels of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) “broke through 400 parts per million (ppm), meaning 400 molecules of CO2 for every one million molecules in the atmosphere.” The World Meteorological Organisation indicated that 2016 will be the first year in which the entire year witnessed these high levels. It also pointed out that CO2 is only one of the greenhouse gases that is increasing. Other gases, such as methane, are also increasing rapidly.
A NASA depiction of the global sources of CO2 which are dominated by the US, China and Europe
The lack of a coherent US policy toward Syria is deeply troubling. Not only have nearly 500,000 people died and 11 million people displaced, but the US has lost strategically to the Russian objective of keeping President Assad in power. It is not enough to point out (correctly) that Syria was a very difficult situation to manage. We do not maintain foreign policy for only easy situations–having an effective foreign policy is more necessary in the most difficult situations. The Atlantic has a very good essay pointing out how US policy vacillated at critical points, making it difficult to maintain a coherent policy.
The banana is the most popular fruit in the world. Virtually every banana sold in supermarkets is a clone of a single type of banana, the Cavendish. The most common type of banana, the Gros Michel, was wiped out in the early 1960s by a fungus called Fusarium wilt. Cavendish bananas are apparently less tasty than the Gros Michel (I would not know), but they were resistent to the fungus. But now a new disease, called Black Sigatoka–the fungus Pseudocercospora fijiensis–threatens the Cavendish, as well as other diseases. Fortunately, there are about a 1000 different kinds of bananas in the wild, but in the short term we may have to go without our bananas until scientists figure out how to grow tasty alternative bananas for a global diet. Botanically, bananas are actually berries.
France has begun the process of removing refugees who have cluster in Calais near the entrance to the Chunnel to Great Britain. These refugees are living in squalor (the refugee camp is pejoratively called “The Jungle”), hoping to somehow get to Great Britain to receive the higher welfare benefits offered by the UK. The refugees will be moved to processing centers all over France, but there are serious concerns about children who are traveling alone. The antipathy toward the refugees is fueling strong support for the National Front Party, a strongly nationalist political party.
Turkish President Erdogan has made territorial claims on the city of Mosul, noting that Mosul was once controlled by the Ottoman Empire and that Turkey is the heir to that empire. He also noted that Turkey has a “historic responsibility” to the Sunni Muslims and Turkmen who live in Mosul. It seems clear that Turkey has every intention to fight in the battle for Mosul even though not one of the other participants believes that Turkish participation would be helpful.
The 1920 Map Referenced by Prime Minister Erdogan Justifying Turkish Claims on Mosul
Belgium has indicated that recent provincial votes indicate that Belgium cannot approve the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada. The vote are not officially the death-knell of the agreement, but it suggests that the chances of it being approved by the European Union are remote. The EU Treaty requires that all trade treaties with non-EU states be approved unanimously. Nonetheless, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is still scheduled to arrive in Brussels to sign the Treaty. It could be a very awkward scene on Thursday.
The election commission of Venezuela has ruled that a recall referendum on President Maduro cannot be held a week before it was scheduled to begin. The decision leaves the opposition with no peaceful alternatives to continued socialist rule. The government has failed to stabilize a rapidly sinking economy and inflation is very high and there are widespread shortages of essential goods. The international community has soundly condemned the decision, but it has little influence over the Maduro government. I suspect that the opposition will step up its efforts to unseat Maduro before 2017 because after that date, if Maduro is removed, his Vice-President will take his place without a new election.
The Washington Post has a great article on the history of Mosul. It provides a good insight into the complexity of claims on the city, particularly when one keeps in mind that the ethnic groups that we identify today are not those of the past. Its centrality still revolves around the issue of pitch (oil).
Venezuela is not the only country experiencing deep economic problems. Egypt’s economy is also rapidly deteriorating and the economic discontent is spelling trouble for General Sisi, the President of Egypt. Inflation is running at 14% a year and prices for common goods are increasing on almost a daily basis. The country imports most necessities and it is running a serious balance of payments deficit. Under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, the government is cutting subsidies for the poor. The chances of political protests on a large scale are getting higher and the government only has repression for an answer.
A day after US Defense Secretary, Ashton Carter, announced that an agreement had been reached with Turkey on its participation in the battle to regain Mosul, the Iraqi Prime Minister announced that Turkish troops would not be welcome in the battle. It is not clear what agreement the US and Turkey had reached, but the disagreements among all the participants in the effort to dislodge Daesh (the Islamic State) from Mosul are considerable. The battle itself has been moving slowly due to the determined resistance of the Daesh fighters. Daesh set a sulphur mine on fire to slow down the Iraqi advance, and the attacking forces have been forced to wear protective gear from the noxious fumes.
We should never doubt the importance of good government. Hurricane Matthew passed over both Cuba and Haiti with equal ferocity, but the preparedness of the Cuban government handled the devastation without a single casualty. Haiti, on the other hand is still reeling from the destruction and conditions continue to deteriorate. Creating an effective government is not something outsiders can do, but the international community should be offering much greater assistance to the people of Haiti if a greater disaster is to be avoided.
The Distributed Denial of Services (DDoS) attack on the Internet could be a harbinger of things to come. Patrick Tucker and Caroline Houck have written a short piece on how the attack was orchestrated and how these attacks have played out in the past. Attacking the internet is quite different from attacking a site on the internet. Anyone who wishes to take down the entire internet obviously has objectives that transcend specific political goals. It is very difficult to imagine how we would conduct our business today without the internet.
You may have experienced some difficulties with web sites today. There was an incredible denial of services attack against a major domain host that targeted the east coast (and is now migrating to the west coast) of the US. The graphic below shows a heat map of the flood of requests that have overwhelmed the services. If you want to be completely mesmerized, you may want to check out a real-time map of the attacks. The real-time map is at Norse Corp and it is currently overwhelmed with requests, so it may take several attempts to actually get to the site. The vulnerability of the web is something that we clearly do not fully appreciate, and we have come to take it for granted. It is probably a big mistake to rely on such a fragile instrument.
Jacobin is a left-wing journals around that often has articles very critical of American foreign policy. In a recent issue, it ran an article that questions the idea of a no-fly zone in Syria. That humanitarian gesture has been floated by a number of analysts recently as a way of providing some assistance to the beleaguered people of Syria. The proposal responds to the powerful desire to do something, but as the article points out it is a policy that is fraught with risks.
South Africa has taken steps to withdraw form the International Criminal Court. The immediate cause for the South African move is the criticism by the court of the South African decision not to honor the ICC’s demand to arrest the indicted leader of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, when he visited South Africa. South Africa believes that the demand was incompatible with South African sovereignty. But there is a larger issue in play as well: since its inception, all 28 indictments handed down by the Court have been against Africans.
As the issues of immigration and refugees becomes more prominent in political discussions, it maybe instructive to see the variety of ways states denote their borders.
The Indian-Pakistani border highlighted by the bright orange lights set up by India to prevent smuggling
The border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland denoted by the change in asphalt in the road.
The border between the Netherlands and Belgium
The US-Canadian border in the Haskell Library, deliberately built along the boundary.
US-Mexican border near Nogales, Arizona
In Beijing, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced that he is “separating” his country from the US and that he will align his country with China. In fact, he is quoted as saying to the Chinese: “I will be dependent on you.” Duterte is further quoted to indicate that he wishes to ally the Philippines to Russia as well. Apparently, the declaration of fealty to China caught his Chinese hosts by surprise but they were undoubtedly delighted. There was no indication of how the Chinese-Filipino South China Sea dispute will be addressed, but the critical question is whether that possible resolution could serve as a model for the other Southeast nations with claims in the sea.
One of the dominant issues in contemporary American foreign policy is the extent to which the US should attempt to pull back its overseas commitments. The US went from a fairly unconnected state to one with a presence in every corner of the planet in a remarkably short period of time. It currently has about 700 overseas bases that support its ability to project power. Analysts in the US are beginning to raise some fairly elemental questions about this presence, and The National Interest has an excellent article on whether the US truly needs to maintain such a ubiquitous role in world affairs.
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