Fresh water is probably the most important resource on the planet as far as human beings are concerned. Humans, however, cannot create more fresh water; we are restricted to the 3% that exists apart from the oceans. Even though fresh water supplies are finite, we do not regulate the use of water in an effective manner. As the human population increases to about 10 billion in the middle of this century, we will likely see serious conflicts over access to fresh water and some areas of the world will likely lose access to water. Our attitudes toward fresh water as a resource have got to change substantially if we expect water to be available in the future.
Beijing has ruled that the two dissident lawmakers on the Hong Kong Legislative Council will not be allowed to retake their oaths. The two had offered oaths to the Council that questioned the link between Hong Kong and China. Beijing has therefore decided that the 1997 agreement with Great Britain that allowed the freedoms guaranteed by British rule to continue until 2047 can be altered. The decision will likely lead to more protests in Hong Kong, but it is difficult to see how Beijing can be resisted.
There have been no formal peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority since the breakdown of the US-sponsored efforts in 2014. Given the hostility between US President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu there is also little likelihood of any more negotiations under the aegis of the US. France has been trying diligently to fill the gap by sponsoring a peace negotiation in Paris, but today Israel turned down the opportunity to participate. The Prime Minister’s office released a statement saying that “Israel’s position to promote the peace process and reach an agreement will only come through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.” It seems highly unlikely, therefore, that there will be any negotiations until the new US Administration figures out a new approach.
There have been protests in Hong Kong as residents anticipate a ruling by Beijing on Monday that would interfere in the outcome of local elections for the Legislative Council. Two dissidents on the Council have made it clear that they resent the control of the central government in Hong Kong affairs. They believe that the laws governing local politics were guaranteed in the 1997 decision by Great Britain to hand over the colony of Hong Kong to China cannot be broken. But Beijing fears the nascent independence movement in the colony, both because of the significance of the city for China’s economy, but also because of a possible connection to other independence movements in China in Tibet and Xinjiang.
Air quality in New Delhi has been a problem for some time, but the situation in the last week has reached crisis proportions. The city has been forced to close schools and halt construction as pollution levels have reached as high as 17 times their permissible limits. Some of the problem is due to the particulate emissions associated with Diwali celebrations, but New Delhi has experienced a large surge in the number of automobiles as the country has become richer.
The pressure on South Korean President Park Geun-hye increases as tens of thousands of South Koreans protest, demanding her resignation. Prosecutors have arrested Choi Soon-sil, the daughter of the late cult leader and there is evidence that Choi had access to classified information even though she held no government position whatsoever. President Park apologized to the country on Friday, but her popularity now stands at 5%. She has 15 months left in her term but it is doubtful that she will last much longer.
Today is Guy Fawkes Day, otherwise known as the Bonfire Day or the Gunpowder Plot. Guy Fawkes was a Catholic dissident who, along with others, conspired to blow up King James I during the opening of Parliament on 5 November 1605. Catholicism was suppressed for many years prior to the plot and the would-be assassins hoped to change the draconian policies by installing James’ daughter and marrying her to a Catholic. Fawkes was reborn in the 1980s as a cultural hero in the graphic novel and movie “V for Vendetta”.
As Americans prepare to vote on Tuesday (although almost 30 million people have already voted), there is a weird cloud hanging over the process: the suspicion that Russia has been attempting to influence the outcome of the election by the selective leaking of secret documents. It is no secret that Russian President Putin has negative feelings about Hillary Clinton and that Donald Trump has been especially positive toward Putin. But the Russian intrusion, confirmed by the highest intelligence officials in the US, is an extraordinary act which defies an appropriate response. Nonetheless, I suspect we can reasonably expect a relatively firm response from the US after the election is over. US officials also believe that Russia intends to disrupt other elections in the West.
Researchers have calculated how much human activity contributes to the melting of Arctic sea ice: “Just 75 miles in a fossil-fuel powered car equals one square foot of ice melted Arctic ice.” Ccording to the study:
“… for every metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted, about three square meters (approximately 32.3 square feet) of Arctic summer sea ice disappears. And, with humans currently emitting about 35 to 40 million tons of CO2 each year, the future doesn’t look very frozen.”
At this rate, the Arctic might be ice-free by 2050. The US is virtually the only major industrialized country that does not have a robust plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Rolling Stone has a very interesting article on why the US lags so far behind. The article does not pretend to disguise its biases, so everyone should take the conclusions of the article with a grain of salt. It does, however, provide several interesting bits of information that appear to be correct. (I will not ask any quiz questions about the Rolling Stone article)
An editorial in The Economist has assessed the state of democracy in the world today and the assessment is disturbing. The analysis is consistent with the view that liberal values continue to erode in the face of economic stress. In many respects the editorial ponders the inability of formerly strong liberal states to hold the line. One paragraph is of particular note:
“Third, democracy is not just about voting; it is about a system that guarantees individual rights, the independence of the courts, the freedom of the press and so on. Britain was a reasonably liberal place in the 19th century even before democracy was enacted; Karl Marx could sit, unmolested, in the reading room of the British Museum and plot the overthrow of the system. There is a tension within democracy between the “majoritarian” and the “individual rights” impulse; the danger that 51% of the electorate votes to lock up the other 49%.”
We will see how close the editorial is to the mark after the US election on Tuesday.
Asli Aydintasbas has written an op-ed piece for the Washington Post about the decline of democracy in Turkey. The attempted coup in Turkey earlier this year has accelerated President Erdogan’s moves to silence news media, arrest dissidents, and purge the military of possible competitors. In some sense, Erdogan’s descent into authoritarianism mimics the larger anti-democratic move in the world, but Turkey is especially tragic since it was regarded as a progressive force in the world a few years ago.
The Harvard Business Review has published an essay that offers a full-throated defense of globalization. The evidence offered is interesting because it is not the standard evidence found in many essays in support of globalization. Rather, the evidence is unusual and reveals some interesting aspects of globalization that we don’t usually think about. There are many conclusions in the essay with which I have disagreements, but I found myself learning a great deal. The essay is definitely worth a close read.
Update to the Situation in South Korea for those who are interested. Bizarre beyond belief. No quiz questions on this post–just For Your Information.
Americans will vote next Tuesday to determine whether a woman will be elected President for the first time in its history. The US lags far behind the rest of the world. The Economist examined the heads of states for 144 countries over the period 1966-2016 and found that 40% of those countries had a female head of state for some period of time.
The World Health Organization is reporting a dramatic spike in cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in West Africa, particularly in densely populated areas such as the city of Lagos in Nigeria. There are an estimated 10 million patients with tuberculosis in the world and of those about 500,000 have the multidrug resistant strains. The problem is difficult to manage in areas such as West Africa which lack the resources to maintain the vigilant treatment necessary for this disease. But it is hardly confined to poor regions of the world. Tuberculosis is a transmissable disease and the need to contain and defeat it is a global responsibility.
The British High Court has ruled that Parliament must vote on the British exit from the European Union. The ruling will significantly delay British negotiations with the EU on the terms of its departure under Article 50 of the Union Charter. It will complicate Prime Minster May’s decision-making process and allow a great deal of mischief to creep into the permissable terms for British exit. The ruling is also a deep disappointment to the EU which wanted the process to be expedited in order to avoid possible complications from the national elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands later in 2017. The terms of the British exit have become even harder to predict.
Russia has charged that the US-supported attack on Mosul is the equivalent of its own attack on the city of Aleppo. The statement is an attempt to deflect the serious criticisms of Russian attacks on civilians in Aleppo. The comparison was angrily rejected by State Department Spokesperson:
“In Aleppo, as I think we’ve just talked in the last few minutes, you have the specific targeting of innocent civilians, first responders, and infrastructure – hospitals – that are specifically being targeted and destroyed, whereas in Mosul the air power that’s being used by the coalition is very precise, very discriminate. Great care is taken to avoid civilian casualties, and certainly there is going to be no concerted effort, as there is in Aleppo, to destroy civilian infrastructure. In fact, quite the opposite; we’re going to try to preserve as much as we can after so much has been laid waste by Daesh over the last two years.
“As a matter of fact – and this is another big difference – unlike in Aleppo, the coalition and the Iraqi Government are working towards post-campaign stabilization. We’re actually working on building contracts so that people can go in and clean up what rubble there is from the campaign and repaint buildings, and restore electricity and water services, and get people back to work. You don’t hear anything like that coming from Assad and from the Russians with respect to Aleppo.”
The evidence on the aerial bombardment in Aleppo is quite extensive and the reports of attacks on hospitals come from highly reputable sources such as Doctors without Borders. As of yet, I have not read any reports of aerial bombardments in Mosul. But the issue bears close monitoring.
Two newly elected members of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council have changed the wording of their oaths of office in ways that communicate their firm belief that Hong Kong should be independent of the central government of China. The two, Yau Wai-ching and Sixtus Leung, also displayed a banner that read “Hong Kong Is Not China” at their swearing in. The Chinese government in Beijing has reacted quite negatively to the dissents and is seeking ways to defuse the threat of secession. Great Britain gave up control over Hong Kong, but the British insisted that the freedoms guaranteed to residents of Hong Kong under its rule be honored until 2047 under an arrangement termed “one country, two systems”. The dissidents believe that China violated that principle in 2014 when it interfered with the legislative council elections. The episode is highly embarrassing to China but it is doubtful that the dissidents will succeed in their efforts.
The chief Chinese climate negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, has publicly rebuked Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump for indicating that, if elected, he would reject the Paris Accord recently signed by almost 200 countries. The statement is highly ironic since Mr. Trump is on record as believing that climate change is a hoax inspired by the Chinese government to stymie American economic growth. The lack of attention to the issue of climate change in the current political discussions in the US is inexcusable.
There are a variety of perspectives on contemporary American foreign policy. Some, like Donald Trump, believe that the US should pursue its national interests aggressively. Others, like Hillary Clinton, believe that the US should continue to follow a policy of multilateral engagement. A third position is that of President Obama who is trying to rein in American commitments abroad in a subdued policy of realpolitik so that American commitments can be more carefully tailored to American capabilities. One perspective that is not often articulated in the traditional media is that the US should pare back its commitments to avoid the danger of “imperial” overstretch. Jeffrey Sachs has written an essay for the Boston Globe that outlines the logic of the leftist critique of the American Empire.
The battle for Mosul continues and it also appears as if the US is thinking seriously about targeting the Syrian city of Raqqa. Both cities are the main bases for Daesh (the Islamic State) so one of the central questions in this chess game is where will Daesh go if it loses its main bases? One should always think about the consequences of “success” when planning a long-term foreign policy. The problem is that there is no good evidence about how Daesh is thinking about its next move. Justin Salhani offers some ideas about how to anticipate its move.
More violence is occurring along the border between India and Pakistan in Kashmir. Even more troubling are reports that many young Pakistani men are leaving home to join the Pakistani militants committed to ending Indian control of parts of Kashmir. The anecdotal evidence is hardly conclusive, but it suggests that it is quite possible that a much larger offensive is being planned. The situation now is barely under control and the prospects of a major war between the two nuclear armed powers are becoming more real every day.
Americans are currently wrestling with the question of whether their elections are free and fair. Freedom House has long ranked electoral systems on a scale of zero to 12, with 12 being as free and fair as possible. The US currently earns an 11 on that scale. The Pew Research Center has examined the most recent results of the ranking and it found that:
“Of the 195 sovereign countries Freedom House ranked this year (using 2015 data), 61 scored 12 out of 12 on the group’s electoral process scale – among them Australia, Canada, Japan and the UK. Besides the U.S., 16 other countries received 11 points out of 12.”
The Center also gives information on other rankings, and the US ranks high, but not among the highest in the world.
There has been movement between the Philippines and China on control of the South China Sea. More specifically, the changes surround control of the Scarborough Shoal which is separate from the other disputed areas such as the Spratly or the Paracel Islands because only the Philippines has a competing claim to the Shoal. Since 2012 Chinese naval vessels have been chasing Filipino fishermen away from the shoal, but it now appears as if Filipino fisherman are being allowed back in. It is too soon to determine what the move means. The Chinese have not relinquished their territorial claim to the Shoal but neither has the Philippines.
In 2014 the Ukrainian people overthrew a government they believed was hopelessly corrupt. In the intervening two years, the campaign against governmental corruption has led to a rather remarkable innovation: a requirement that all Ukrainian officials must publicly declare their wealth and property. It is fair to say that the results of the declarations were stunning: Ukrainian public officials are incredibly wealthy. The requirement is something that all democracies should embrace. The US has reporting rules, but they are not nearly as stringent. The average net worth of a person in Congress is $1.03 million, twelve times the net worth of the average American household.
The evidence of global warming in the Arctic is fairly clear: the sea ice coverage seems to decline every year. But the situation in Antarctica is quite different since most of the ice there rests on land, not on the sea. With refined techniques, however, scientists have learned that much of the South Pole’s ice is melting from the bottom up as warming water intrudes between the land and the ice. Ice melting in Antarctica is potentially more troubling since virtually all the water from the melt would add to the water in the oceans unlike the Arctic melt which does not add to the total ocean volume. According to Bloomberg:
“There’s enough water locked up in West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea region alone to raise the global average sea level by four feet, and it’s the fastest-melting spot on the continent.”
Unfortunately, we do not have enough data yet to assess the seriousness of the problem.
The US Senate has passed a bill, 85-13, that will require women to register for the military draft. This law, if passed by the House of Representatives, marks the first time women in the US would be subjected to conscription. The military draft for men was in force from 1948 to 1973 when it ended because of opposition to the Vietnam War. It was reinstated in 1980 after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Right now, all men between the ages of 18-25 have to register for the military draft.
A scandal is engulfing President Park Geun-hye of South Korea and it is not a typical scandal. President Park sands accused of being influenced by a friend, Choi Soon-sil, who is involved in a sect called the Church of Eternal Life and a movement called the Movement for a New Mind. The activities of Choi are described by some as “shamanistic” and there is evidence that Choi has been heavily implicated in suspicious money-raising ventures. President Park has requested the resignations of many of her senior advisers and her approval rating has sunk to 14%. There have been large protests demanding Park’s resignation.
Bonus Link: No quiz questions for this link
For those who wish to learn more about the problems at Deutsche Bank, Spiegel has a very detailed article about how this once proud bank fell on hard times. It may yet survive, but globalization was not kind.
World Politics News 