There is considerable evidence that European states do not believe the US position that Iran is planning attacks against US forces in Iraq. Eldar Mamedov has written a blog post with a number of bits of evidence that demonstrate a profound lack of confidence in the US assessment:
“Not only are there profound differences between the EU and the United States on Iran, there is also a growing perception that U.S. policy is unpredictable. President Donald Trump seems to be counting on “maximum pressure” to get Iran to “call him,” while suggesting no off-ramp in case this call, as seems likely, doesn’t materialize. National Security Advisor John Bolton, meanwhile, consciously pushes for escalation with regime change (if not Iran´s disintegration) as the ultimate goal. And Pompeo seems to be echoing whatever Trump says but has a track record as an unreformed Iran hawk. Against this backdrop, Pompeo’s hastily organized trip to Brussels, which required cutting one day short his scheduled visit to Russia, creates an impression not of a Henry Kissinger-style shuttle diplomacy, but of a superpower cast adrift, with no direction, strategy, or skills to execute its foreign policy.”
“However, not everyone is willing to assume Iranian responsibility and many of those are unlikely to accept the word of the governments in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and, alas, even the United States. It is critical, therefore, that the Trump administration publicly present a clear case for Iranian culpability that withstands the expected scrutiny—especially if this ends up being a precursor for US military action down the road.
“Getting such a presentation wrong has longstanding negative implications for US national security policy. The Clinton administration’s counterterrorism efforts against Al Qaeda never recovered from the questions surrounding the CIA’s weak explanation of the intelligence used to target the Al-Shifa pharmaceutical factory in Sudan in 1998. As a result, there was insufficient political support for additional military actions against Bin Laden until after 9/11. And the Bush administration’s campaign in Iraq never recovered from its overstatements regarding the intelligence linking Saddam Hussein to Al Qaeda and to weapons of mass destruction. The United States has remained politically divided ever since on this issue, which has contributed to the serious mistakes made on US policy toward Iraq by the two administrations that followed.”
David Frum writes in The Atlantic about how he regrets believing the “weapons of mass destruction” argument justifying the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
“The Iraq War of 2003 was undone by blithe assumptions, cultural ignorance, and careless planning. But compared with the accelerating drive to confront Iran, the Iraq War looks like a masterpiece of meticulous preparation.
“The project of a war with Iran is so crazy, it remains incredible that Donald Trump’s administration could truly be premeditating it. But on the off, off chance that it is, here’s a word of caution from a veteran of the George W. Bush administration: Don’t do it.”
It is unlikely that US President Trump would start a war with Iran on his own: he has shown no proclivity to back up his bellicose rhetoric with concrete military actions. But his National Security Adviser, John Bolton, has been arguing for the overthrow of the Iranian government for many years and his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has also been fiercely opposed to the Iranian regime. The Congress has yet to be involved in any of the decision-making on Iran and it needs to assert its constitutional prerogatives in the making of war.
“But Trump vowed that Tehran would ‘suffer greatly’ were it to ‘do anything’ to threaten US interests.
“‘If they do anything, it would be a very bad mistake,’ Trump warned at the White House. ‘If they do anything they will suffer greatly.’
“Iranian President Hassan Rouhani hit back, saying the Islamic republic was ‘too great to be intimidated by anyone’.
“‘God willing we will pass this difficult period with glory and our heads held high, and defeat the enemy,’ Rouhani said at a late night meeting with clerics.”
The ramping up of tensions comes as there are press reports that the US has developed plans that would send about 120,000 additional troops to the region in case of a conflict. That number of troops is roughly the same number that were sent to Iraq prior to the US invasion of that country in 2003. There is concern that Iranian militias in Iraq could be involved in a conflict with US soldiers in Iraq. Writing in the Atlantic, Mike Giglio states that US and Iranian troops have already exchanged fire in Iraq:
“Another recently retired officer noted an instance in which he suspected that U.S. troops already had been targeted by militias: A roadside bomb killed a U.S. service member in October 2017, an incident for which the U.S. military has not assigned blame. Last year, the State Department evacuated the U.S. consulate in the Iraqi city of Basra, citing attacks by Iran-backed militias. ‘That’s always been there,’ he said. ‘When I hear [U.S. claims of new threats], I’m like, ‘Really, there’s a new threat from Iran-backed militia?’ I remember back in 2004 when we were fighting Iran-backed militias in Iraq. It’s an existing threat that’s been there for years, but it’s up to Iran to dial it up or dial it down depending on the political end state they want to achieve.’”
There are also concerns that Iran could station missiles in Iraq that could threaten US troops in the region. It does not appear as if the Trump Administration has a clear plan of action, but his foreign policy is undermined by his impatience and his desire for a decisive foreign policy coup.
US President Trump hosted Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at the White House yesterday. Hungary is a member of NATO, but Orbán has presided over the systematic dismantling of democratic institutions while Prime Minister. He has limited the powers of the court, restricted the freedoms of the press, and has descried the immigration of non-Christians and non-whites into Europe. Orban is a pariah in many countries in the world and Axios lists the measures taken against him:
The European Parliament voted in September to trigger potentially punitive proceedings against Hungary, in response to policies of Orbán’s seen as contrary to EU values.
Orbán’s political party, Fidesz, was suspended in March by the European People’s Party (EPP) for being undemocratic and undercutting the rule of law, in addition to having mounted an anti–EU campaign that targeted EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, a senior member of the EPP and George Soros.
U.S. lawmakers introduced a resolution in January condemning Orbán for “efforts to undermine democracy and violate human rights” that has support in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Even as the US and China continue to negotiate on their trading relationship, US President Trump imposed higher tariffs on many products imported from China. China has vowed to retaliate, but has yet to do so. Perhaps it is waiting for the outcome of the discussions today. I cannot determine whether the new tariffs are intended merely as a negotiating ploy or whether Mr. Trump intends to keep them in place until the China make substantive concession. China seems reluctant to make those concessions, largely because China does not wish to be seen as capitulating to US demands. And China has some ways to retaliate that will harm the US economy. In the meantime, the tariffs will negatively affect US citizens in rural areas disproportionately.
The tariffs affect over 5,000 products. If you want top see the complete list, click here. The uncertainty over the clash has erased about $2 trillion of global stocks.
For the first time, the US has seized a North Korean cargo vessel that it claimed was violating sanctions by carrying coal. The seizure came just hours after North Korea tested two short-range missiles, as it rattles the US cage to speed up the nuclear negotiations. North Korea has also ceased to cooperate with the US on the return of military remains from the Korean War. These actions will undoubtedly make further negotiations between the US and North Korea more difficult. They also complicate the situation for South Korean President Moon who has been steadily losing favor among the South Korean population. The US has not gained much in its two-year pursuit of better relations with North Korea and it appears as if it is losing credibility with one of its main allies, South Korea.
As the US ratchets up its pressure on Iran, it also seems to be unaware that it is heavily dependent on states that have good relations with Iran. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went to Iraq to persuade it to reduce its relations with Iran. Iraq politely refused, hardly the outcome the US anticipated when it overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003 (if Hussein were still in power, he would gladly acquiesce to Pompeo). The US also sent 4 B-52 bombers to the region to reinforce the aircraft carrier group it sent to the Persian Gulf. But those bombers are based in Qatar, another country with good relations with Iran (dictated by the fact that the two countries share a large natural gas reservoir in the Persian Gulf). The strong military presence of the US in the region rests upon two very tentative allies–not the strongest bargaining position.
Reuters has published an article describing the reasons why the Trump Administration has decided to impose new tariffs on Chinese products. The trade talks have been going on for some time, and there was a sense that an agreement was in the offing. But the Chinese apparently understood certain parts of the agreement in ways that differed profoundly from the US understanding. It is hard to determine whether the disagreements are substantive or whether they are part of a negotiating strategy. The Reuters report gives the impression that the disagreements are real:
“The administration said the latest tariff escalation would take effect at 12:01 a.m. Friday, hiking levees on Chinese products such as internet modems and routers, printed circuit boards, vacuum cleaners and furniture.
“The Chinese reversal may give China hawks in the Trump administration, including Lighthizer, an opening to take a harder stance.
“Mnuchin – who has been more open to a deal with improved market access, and at times clashed with Lighthizer – appeared in sync with Lighthizer in describing the changes to reporters on Monday, while still leaving open the possibility that new tariffs could be averted with a deal.
“Trump’s tweets left no room for backing down, and Lighthizer made it clear that, despite continuing talks, ‘come Friday, there will be tariffs in place.’”
“In a televised speech, [Iranian President] Rouhani said that Iran would hold on to stockpiles of excess uranium and heavy water used in its nuclear reactors. He set a 60-day deadline for new terms to the nuclear accord, after which Tehran would resume higher uranium enrichment.
“’We are ready to negotiate, within the boundaries of JCPOA,’ he said referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal. ‘It is not us who has left the negotiation table.’”
The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran has up to this point adhered to the agreement despite the US withdrawal from it. It seems as if Rouhani’s statement is an attempt to prod more negotiations on the deal, but there is no evidence that the US is interested in further discussion.
Dina Esfandiary, writing in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, raises an interesting take on the US actions: that the US policy of maximum pressure is designed to provoke a war:
“Reframing a routine deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln strike force to the region only serves to unnecessarily heighten tensions and foster the potential for miscalculation. The only reason to do any of this is to push Iran into a corner, paving the way toward military confrontation—something few want because it will achieve little.”
Sending an aircraft carrier close to Iran is an unmistakable provocation. Sending an aircraft carrier into the Strait of Hormuz is also not a smart move. The aircraft carrier is designed for open waters, not the cramped space of the Strait.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is a committee of 145 expert authors from 50 countries who have met over the past three years, with inputs from another 310 contributing authors. It has released a 1600-page report which argues that up to a million species are threatened with extinction, many within a few decades: “The average abundance of native species in most major land-based habitats has fallen by at least 20%, mostly since 1900. More than 40% of amphibian species, almost 33% of reefforming corals and more than a third of all marine mammals are threatened. The picture is less clear for insect species, but available evidence supports a tentative estimate of 10% being threatened. At least 680 vertebrate species had been driven to extinction since the 16th century and more than 9% of all domesticated breeds of mammals used for food and agriculture had become extinct by 2016, with at least 1,000 more breeds still threatened.” Among the other findings:
“Three-quarters of the land-based environment and about 66% of the marine environment have been significantly altered by human actions. On average these trends have been less severe or avoided in areas held or managed by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities.
“More than a third of the world’s land surface and nearly 75% of freshwater resources are now devoted to crop or livestock production.
“The value of agricultural crop production has increased by about 300% since 1970, raw timber harvest has risen by 45% and approximately 60 billion tons of renewable and nonrenewable resources are now extracted globally every year – having nearly doubled since 1980.
“Land degradation has reduced the productivity of 23% of the global land surface, up to US$577 billion in annual global crops are at risk from pollinator loss and 100-300 million people are at increased risk of floods and hurricanes because of loss of coastal habitats and protection.
“In 2015, 33% of marine fish stocks were being harvested at unsustainable levels; 60% were maximally sustainably fished, with just 7% harvested at levels lower than what can be sustainably fished.
“Urban areas have more than doubled since 1992.
“Plastic pollution has increased tenfold since 1980, 300-400 million tons of heavy metals, solvents, toxic sludge and other wastes from industrial facilities are dumped annually into the world’s waters, and fertilizers entering coastal ecosystems have produced more than 400 ocean ‘dead zones’, totalling more than 245,000 km2 (591-595) – a combined area greater than that of the United Kingdom.
“Negative trends in nature will continue to 2050 and beyond in all of the policy scenarios explored in the Report, except those that include transformative change – due to the projected impacts of increasing land-use change, exploitation of organisms and climate change, although with significant differences between regions.”
It is unlikely that there will be a positive response to this report by the Trump Administration. But it is clear that the absence of a response is completely unacceptable and reprehensible.
The Trump Administration is sending the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group as well as bombers to the Middle East, citing intelligence that suggests that Iran is planning the threaten US forces in the region. The US is claiming that there were “’multiple, credible threats’ against U.S. forces on land, including in Iraq, by Iran and proxy forces and at sea.” The intelligence sources were not identified and I will confess that I am skeptical of the claim. This is not the first time that the National Security Adviser, John Bolton, has exaggerated threats from Iran. Bolton argued for an attack on Iran in an op-ed for the New York Times in 2015: “The inconvenient truth is that only military action like Israel’s 1981 attack on Saddam Hussein’s Osirak reactor in Iraq or its 2007 destruction of a Syrian reactor, designed and built by North Korea, can accomplish what is required. Time is terribly short, but a strike can still succeed.” Fortunately, President Obama chose to pursue the Iranian nuclear agreement, a decision that Iran still observes, even though the US has violated the agreement by abrogating it.
“Bolton’s strategy was based on the claim that Iran was hiding its military nuclear program from the IAEA, and in early 2004, he came up with a dramatic propaganda ploy: he sent a set of satellite images to the IAEA showing sites at the Iranian military reservation at Parchin that he claimed were being used for tests to simulate nuclear weapons. Bolton demanded that the IAEA request access to inspect those sites and leaked his demand to the Associated Press in September 2004. In fact, the satellite images showed nothing more than bunkers and buildings for conventional explosives testing.
“Bolton was apparently hoping the Iranian military would not agree to any IAEA inspections based on such bogus claims, thus playing into his propaganda theme of Iran’s “intransigence” in refusing to answer questions about its nuclear program. But in 2005 Iran allowed the inspectors into those sites and even let them choose several more sites to inspect. The inspectors found no evidence of any nuclear-related activities.
“But the whole story of the so-called ‘laptop documents’ was a fabrication. In 2013, a former senior German official revealed the true story to this writer: the documents had been given to German intelligence by the Mujahedin E Khalq, the anti-Iran armed group that was well known to have been used by Mossad to ‘launder’ information the Israelis did not want attributed to themselves.”
It is not an accident that the US moves come after Netanyahu won re-election and during heightened tensions between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Increased tensions with Iran also work to relieve some of the pressure on US President Trump caused by the Mueller and Congressional investigations. My advice would be to be very suspicious of any moves against Iran.
There have been intensifying exchanges of rockets and air strikes between militants in Gaza and Israel. The situation has been worsening over the last few weeks and it appears as if both sides are hunkering down for an extended period. The Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have been living under a strict Israeli blockade for many years and the escalation of violence suggests that there is a sense among some in the Gaza that there is nothing more left to lose. The timing of the strikes is awkward for both sides, as explained by the Public Broadcasting system:
“Israel has vowed to hit back hard against both Hamas and Islamic Jihad, whom it suspects of triggering the current conflagration. But, as in previous rounds where it stopped short of a full-fledged war, the timing for a prolonged round of fighting is tricky for Israel.
“The country marks Memorial Day and Independence Day this week. The following week it is set to host the Eurovision song contest, in which large groups of tourists are expected.
“For Gazans, the violence comes ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, in which the faithful fast from dawn to dusk, which begins Monday.”
The fighting has erupted as the White House is preparing to roll out its proposed peace plan between the Israelis and Palestinians. We still do not know what the plan will involve, but most analysts believe that the few bits of information we have about the plan suggests that it will not be successful.
We are getting more information about the tests North Korea recently conducted. They are being described a “projectiles” and not necessarily missiles. Since the projectiles did not travel more than 120 miles it appears as if the tests were calibrated not to break any understandings between the US, South Korea, and North Korea. But they were clearly designed to demonstrate North Korea’s displeasure with the slow pace of negotiations. In Slate, Molly Olmstead relates the significance of the test:
“According to the Post, South Korea’s president said the North’s actions violated a September military cooperation agreement between the two countries aimed at reducing tensions. A spokeswoman for the president said the South would work with the U.S. to ‘ramp up vigilance and closely communicate with neighboring countries as needed.’ According to the Times, the South Korean foreign minister said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had said in a conversation with her that the U.S. would respond ‘with caution.’ In a tweet on Saturday, Trump said he still believes he can reach a nuclear deal with Kim.”
US President Trump had an hour-long telephone conversation with Russian President Putin. Trump reported that Putin told him that Russia did not want to get “involved” in Venezuela and that he and Putin had the same views on events in Venezuela.
“‘He is not looking at all to get involved in Venezuela other than he’d like to see something positive happen for Venezuela,’ Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday, following a call with the Russian leader earlier in the day. ‘And I feel the same way. We want to get some humanitarian aid — right now people are starving, they have no water, they have no food.’”
Trump’s assessment differs profoundly from the views expressed yesterday by his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and his National Security Adviser, John Bolton. Both those officials had strong views that both Russia and Cuba are actively propping up the regime of Nicolas Maduro. Additionally, Mr. Trump said that he had spoken “briefly” about the “hoax” that there was collusion with Russia during the 2016 US election. When asked by a reporter about the issue, Mr. Trump said that he found the question “very rude”. David Graham recounts the exchange with reporters today in the Oval Office:
“In brief remarks during a visit with the Slovakian prime minister, reporters asked Trump about the call. Had he discussed Russian meddling with Putin?
Trump: He sort of smiled when he said something to the effect that it started off as a mountain and it ended up being a mouse. But he knew that, because you knew there was no collusion whatsoever. So that is pretty much what it was—
Reporter: Did you tell him not to meddle in the next election?
Trump: Excuse me. I’m talking. I’m answering this question. You are very rude. So we had a good conversation about many different things. Okay.
Reporter: Did you tell him not to meddle in the next election?
Trump: We didn’t discuss that. Really, we didn’t discuss it. We discussed five or six things.
Cyclone Fani hit eastern India today and more than a million people had to be evacuated. Fani is the strongest storm to affect India in the last 20 years and early reports suggest widespread damage. The storm is tracking toward Bangladesh. It will likely take several days for the damage from the storm to be fully assessed.
Kiron Skinner, the Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department, gave an interview with Anne-Marie Slaughter (who once held Skinner’s position) at a conference in Washington DC. Her comments raised some eyebrows. Masha Gessen desxcribed parts of the talk in this way:
“A large part of Skinner’s job is listening to what the President says and trying to make sense of it. She said as much. ‘The President provides the hunches and instincts,’ she said, ‘and it’s my job, and that of Secretary Pompeo, to turn those hunches and instincts into hypotheses.’ She called the hypotheses the ‘Trump Doctrine’ and the ‘Pompeo Corollary.’
“Slaughter, logically, asked what the Trump Doctrine was. ‘That’s a tough one,’ Skinner responded, without a hint of irony. ‘It is, in a kind of broad way, a set of pillars that address twenty-first-century realities.’
“The pillars were: the ‘return to national sovereignty’; national interest; reciprocity in international relations and trade; ‘burden sharing,’ particularly in defense; and ‘new regional partnerships’ for what she described as ‘particular crises.’
“’If I can summarize,’ Slaughter suggested, ‘the Trump Doctrine is ‘The United States is a sovereign nation guided by its national interest—we’ll do for you if you’ll do for us.’
“Skinner confirmed that Slaughter’s understanding was correct.”
“When we think about the Soviet Union and that competition, in a way, it was a fight within the Western family. Karl Marx was a German Jew who developed a philosophy that was really within the larger body of political thought … that has some tenets even within classical liberalism …
“You could look at the Soviet Union, part West, part East, but it had some openings there that got us the Helsinki Final Act in 1975. It was a really important Western concept that opened the door really to undermine the Soviet Union, a totalitarian state, on human rights principles. That’s not really possible with China. This is a fight with a really different civilization and a different ideology. And the United States hasn’t had that before …”
“It’s also striking that it’s the first time we will have a great power competitor that is not Caucasian.”
I am not certain why Skinner thinks that China is so radically different from other great powers, but the injection of race into the equation is distinctly not consistent with realism. Perhaps Skinner can provide us with an explanation for how race changes the dynamics of power and interest.
The rise of authoritarian governments in the world since the Great Recession of 2008-09 has been startling and difficult to explain. But the erosion of faith in democratic institutions globally has been dramatic. The Pew Research Center has conducted a poll on the issue and the results are dispiriting.
“Anger at political elites, economic dissatisfaction and anxiety about rapid social changes have fueled political upheaval in regions around the world in recent years. Anti-establishment leaders, parties and movements have emerged on both the right and left of the political spectrum, in some cases challenging fundamental norms and institutions of liberal democracy. Organizations from Freedom House to the Economist Intelligence Unit to V-Demhave documented global declines in the health of democracy.”
What is most striking is the extent to which people tend to associate bad economic times with failures in democracy. The number of people who believe that their national economy is in bad shape is very high.
It is difficult to imagine that these economies will improve dramatically at any time in the near future. The demographics for economic activity are not favorable and the current policies of protectionism in many states will make export-oriented growth very difficult.
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