World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

There is an incredible flurry of news articles about Iran.  The covert war continues as another scientist working on the nuclear program was assassinated.  He was the fifth such scientist to be killed.  Iran blames Israel and the US for the deaths, a charge the US vehemently denies and Israel merely deflects.  Reaction to the assassination was quite strong in Iran, and global sentiment is clearly against such acts.  The pattern of attacks clearly suggests that they are orchestrated by some central power or powers acting in coordination.  As such, they are clearly acts of war and, if the attackers are convincingly identified, would unleash global opprobrium.   In one good sign, the EU seems to be putting off its planned embargo of Iranian oil for a period of time.

The war of words between Iran and the West continues to escalate with the Iranian announcement of the opening of a second ,more heavily fortified, nuclear enrichment facility.  The rhetoric war is getting quite dangerous: each side is beginning to call the other’s bluff.  That situation tends to back sides into corners, and the tendency to up the ante when one’s bluff is called is politically overwhelming.  A very dangerous situation that tends to override sober assessment of risk calculation.

There have been more self-immolations in Tibet.  The sense of urgency suggested by the suicides is unmistakable, but the reaction of the world has been muted.  As the Dalai Lama ages, one can expect the Tibetans to try to force greater and greater pressure on Beijing.  It is difficult, however, to figure out what the outside world can do to help.

An Indian perspective on climate change: note how the author essentially gives up on the rich countries to make the necessary commitments.    The recognition of the failure of the Durban Conference is widespread, and forcing many to think about viable alternatives to international cooperation.  Such solutions are theoretically possible, but much more difficult.  An international agreement would make progress much more quickly and effectively.

We’re still trying to figure out the implications of President Obama’s new military strategy.  Max Fisher gives his take in the Atlantic.

Hungary’s economic woes have filter out to Austria.  Many Austrian banks lent money to Hungary and investors are concerned that Hungary will not be able to repay those debts to Austrian banks.  While the matter is sufficiently serious in and of itself, the crisis also echoes one of the most decisive moments in the Great Depression–the collapse of the Austrian bank, Credit Anstalt.  Creepy stuff.

My postings will be sporadic over the next two weeks as I will be on vacation.  I never really take a break from reading the news, but I may not have easy access to a computer.

Another inequality gap in the world is emerging: broadband usage.  If you use a smartphone, you should count yourself among the world’s elite.  The top 10% of broadband users consume 90% of the world’s bandwidth.  Obviously, this bottleneck will only get worse in the future.   So talk fast now.

The European economic situation does not appear to be moving in any direction.  Italian bonds yields remain high, Hungary’s debt was declared junk by Fitch, who now joins S&P and Moody’s in that assessment, and economic activity appears to be weakening.  And yet the official mantra of European governments remains “austerity,” a policy that will only deepen the economic weakness in the short run.  It is truly mind-boggling how ill-advised that policy is under these circumstances.

The EU has announced that it supports “in principle” an embargo on Iranian oil exports.  A final decision on an embargo won’t be made until the end of January and it appears that some exceptions to the embargo will be allowed.  The ball now goes to the Iranian court–we’ll see how they respond to this set of sanctions.  The Eu clearly wants to muddy the waters about the embargo in hopes that there won’t be a decisive “flash point” to set off the Iranians.  Perhaps the Iranians will make that interpretation in order to avoid a confrontation.  If a confrontation does occur, the price of oil will go up quite dramatically for at least a short period of time.  It doesn’t help that the US and Israeli militaries are planning a major joint exercise this spring–the largest in the history of the US-Israeli alliance.

The Obama Administration has announced plans for a new military strategy that seems to downplay the US military role in Europe and emphasizes the Pacific instead.  President Obama took the unusual step of announcing the new strategy from a briefing room in the Pentagon–a move that decidedly stamps his name on the new strategy.  It is a shift away from the Army/Marine focus of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to a more Air/Naval approach.  The new strategy not only reflects a change in the assessment of threat, but also a change in the budget realities facing the US.

Charles Grant has an extended essay on the problems facing Europe in the most recent issue of Foreign Policy. It is a very sobering read, but is right on the mark.

The Obama Administration tends to be very low-key in the conduct of its foreign policy.  The apparent decision to engage the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is an example of this attribute.  Needless to say, the decision is bound to raise a great deal of controversy, but it is unquestionably the right thing to do.  It is far better to try to come to an accommodation, particularly when the situation is so uncertain.  At the very worst, both sides will at least understand the basis of any possible disagreement.  At best, perceived problems may not in fact exist.

The erosion of the middle class in the United States and the world is a potentially very destabilizing development. This essay in the Washington Post outlines the reasons why a middle class is so central to the preservation of a liberal order.

The movement to expand the power of the state has picked up speed recently.  The US has passed new security laws which allows for the indefinite detention of American citizens.  Even though President Obama said he would not invoke those powers, we don’t rely on good will for the protection of rights–only laws are sufficient to prevent abuse.  And Hungary has changed its constitution to centralize greater power to the state.  Israel is considering legislation to reduce the autonomy of its Supreme Court.  That this movement is picking up speed is troubling.  That there seems to be little organized resistance to this movement is even more troubling.

Additional troubles emerge in Nigeria as protests against fuel price increases spread.  Nigeria is one of the world’s largest producers of petroleum, but because it lacks refinery capabilities, it is forced to import refined products such as gasoline (the same is true for Iran).  The fuel price increases are spreading all across the world as fears of a conflict in the Persian Gulf continue to fester.  It is quite odd to see price increases in energy when all the economic data point to an economic slowdown–hardly a usual scenario.

The drumbeat on Iran is getting a little faster and louder.  The key variable in this calculation is actually the timing of the US Presidential election.  A classic example of how domestic politics can determine foreign policy–one of the reasons why realists hate public opinion.

An interesting development in American trade policy:  for the first time since 1949, the US top export to the rest of the world is refined petroleum products.  Usually, the top export is aircraft.  But this development highlights the increased demand for petroleum in the world.   So the US imports petroleum, refines it, and then sells it abroad.  Next time you buy gasoline, think about what it would have cost if all refined products were restricted for domestic use (a lot less).

Climate Change is one of the most difficult issues to address in world politics.  The degree of cooperation necessary to avoid the worst scenarios is virtually unimaginable within the current political framework.  And the cooperation necessary has to happen long before the worst effects are realized.  The most recent data is particularly discouraging.

New U.S. daily high temperature records exceeded daily cold records in December by a ratio of 1.8 to 1, a margin of 80%. The overwhelming excess of heat records continued into New Year’s Day, when the 116 high maximum records set or tied absolutely crushed the one lonely low minimum record…. The annual value [of […]/p

via Mother Nature is Just Getting Warmed Up: December Heat Records Exceed Cold By 80%, Annual Ratio Hits 2.8-to-1.

Iran has tested a new missile which it claims has stealth characteristics.  If true, then the test signals a dramatic shift in Iran’s ability to control the Strait of Hormuz.  Additionally, Iran announced that it has successfully fabricated a nuclear fuel rod, a step that isn’t really a step in the direction of a nuclear warhead, but one that demonstrates increasing expertise in nuclear technology.  Thus far, there hasn’t been an independent assessment of these claims.  Needless to say, however, the claims have heightened tensions in the region.

South Korean has offered a tentative olive branch to North Korea, hoping that tensions on the peninsula do not continue to rise.  Kim Jong-eun has been named the Supreme Military Commander, so it appears as if his position in the North is stable as of now.  Once again, the situation remains fluid, so nothing is yet certain.

The Christian Science Monitor has a nice summary of what to look for in the Middle East for the coming year.  As with all predictions, one shouldn’t take them too seriously.  But it is a nice list of things to watch out for as the year unfolds.